Stealth Nerf to Mat Refining?

Thrasher91604

Has anyone else noticed that refining ancestor silk and rubetite ore is dropping fewer gold improvement mats?

I am seeing 50% or less gold mats in the last couple of weeks.

Maybe meticulous disassembly isn’t working?

XSTRONG

I think they lower or increasing the drop rate once in awhile but never tells when they do.

Thats what i heard

tmbrinks

Nope. I've tracked for years, and millions of mats.

Nothing's changed.

The data is shared too! Link in the signature.

tmbrinks

XSTRONG wrote: »

I think they lower or increasing the drop rate once in awhile but never tells when they do.

Thats what i heard

This rumor is a weed that just won't die...

The drop rates have literally been the same for years now.

They were increased with meticulous disassembly becoming a thing. Other than that... they have literally not changed in years.

XSTRONG

tmbrinks wrote: »

Nope. I've tracked for years, and millions of mats.

Nothing's changed.

The data is shared too! Link in the signature.

Ok did you track on all servers for years?

Many people told me they do increase or lower drop rate when refining mats but I never put any thought into it.

You might be right.

tmbrinks

XSTRONG wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Nope. I've tracked for years, and millions of mats.

Nothing's changed.

The data is shared too! Link in the signature.

Ok did you track on all servers for years?

Many people told me they do increase or lower drop rate when refining mats but I never put any thought into it.

You might be right.

I have data from both NA and EU recorded.

Let's just say... as an educator in mathematics, most people are really, really, really bad at basic statistics and statistical relevance.

I have seen this "rumor" posted at least 100 times on these forums... and not a single time has anybody ever backed up the claim with statistically significant data, it's all been "hearsay" or "from a friend" or "I feel the drop rate is lower" or a sample of like 20 refines and "not getting a single gold mat!"

I trust hard data... which I have collected (with help from a few friends), and that data shows absolutely zero evidence of any 'altering of drop rates'

Thrasher91604

For example, I almost always got at least 1 gold mat when refining 25 ore or silk. Last 6 times zero gold mats. Bad luck? RNG stuck? I don’t know.

endgamesmug

I just changed my mindset and rely on improvement mats from daily writs and hireling mails. Dont get your hopes up with getting anything much from raw mats, i can get 1 out of 1000 or 5 out if 10 its quite absurd. So i can now see why more and more people are selling stacks of raw mats instead, that way atleast youre getting something for it rather than gambling your time away.

XSTRONG

tmbrinks wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Nope. I've tracked for years, and millions of mats.

Nothing's changed.

The data is shared too! Link in the signature.

Ok did you track on all servers for years?

Many people told me they do increase or lower drop rate when refining mats but I never put any thought into it.

You might be right.

I have data from both NA and EU recorded.

Let's just say... as an educator in mathematics, most people are really, really, really bad at basic statistics and statistical relevance.

I have seen this "rumor" posted at least 100 times on these forums... and not a single time has anybody ever backed up the claim with statistically significant data, it's all been "hearsay" or "from a friend" or "I feel the drop rate is lower" or a sample of like 20 refines and "not getting a single gold mat!"

I trust hard data... which I have collected (with help from a few friends), and that data shows absolutely zero evidence of any 'altering of drop rates'

Did you you speak with ESO developers when you tracked drop rates for years?

tmbrinks

XSTRONG wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

XSTRONG wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Nope. I've tracked for years, and millions of mats.

Nothing's changed.

The data is shared too! Link in the signature.

Ok did you track on all servers for years?

Many people told me they do increase or lower drop rate when refining mats but I never put any thought into it.

You might be right.

I have data from both NA and EU recorded.

Let's just say... as an educator in mathematics, most people are really, really, really bad at basic statistics and statistical relevance.

I have seen this "rumor" posted at least 100 times on these forums... and not a single time has anybody ever backed up the claim with statistically significant data, it's all been "hearsay" or "from a friend" or "I feel the drop rate is lower" or a sample of like 20 refines and "not getting a single gold mat!"

I trust hard data... which I have collected (with help from a few friends), and that data shows absolutely zero evidence of any 'altering of drop rates'

Did you you speak with ESO developers when you tracked drop rates for years?

When I noticed the bug when Elsweyr dropped... about how certain surveys were double dropping for people who owned the chapter, and not dropping for those who didn't own the chapter.

Yes, I reported that as a bug with evidence to prove it.

Otherwise, I don't know what you're trying to suggest here.

I just loathe when people make unsubstantiated claims. It's how rumors persist, and it's dangerous.

People should know that they should just refine their materials if they want. The drop rates are consistent and predictable once you get to statistically relevant amounts. No conspiracies, no secret event drop rate changes, no RNG "seed".

Every time it's posted, I ask for actual data... it's never been provided. Never.

Thrasher91604

Well my dry run ended today. A bunch of gold mats dropped today for me when refining. Must have been my post.

boi_anachronism_

Generally I notice a lower drop rate during double node drop events but otherwise no different.

tmbrinks

Thrasher91604 wrote: »

Well my dry run ended today. A bunch of gold mats dropped today for me when refining. Must have been my post.

Congratulations... a Statistician would call that "reversion to the mean", which is what we expect to happen as we get to statistically relevant sample sizes.

tmbrinks

boi_anachronism_ wrote: »

Generally I notice a lower drop rate during double node drop events but otherwise no different.

Small sample size... but during the event. Nothing even remotely suggesting a "lower drop rate"

I look forward to your shared data!