Curated Drops Question

Amerises

I understand how RNG works, but I’m wondering others experiences. I’ve been running vMA on this new account I made, so filling up my sticker book and the greatsword was the LAST curated drop to fill the book. Pillar dagger, it was second to last. I farmed Titanborn on a PvP build, and the maul (not daggers or greatsword) was the LAST Titanborn. Is this others experience that the most used weapon of the set usually doesn’t drop until your book is full, or just near full?

aaisoaho

No, it is just RNG being RNG. One of the first drops from veteran Kyne's Aegis for me was the restoration staff of Roaring Opportunist. As far as I know, it is one of the most sought after items in Kyne's Aegis (maybe frost staff surpasses it in desirablesness). Sometimes I've had the desired item as the last, sometimes I get it midway thru, other times I get it as one of the first weapon drops.

ApoAlaia

It is just random.

The only place where I seem to remember the developers 'weighting' the drops were arenas, where the S&B were deliberately made to be less likely to drop than the rest of the weapons.

Said that I am talking from memory here so take with a pinch of salt please, memory is very unreliable.

DMuehlhausen

It's RNG but it's weighted RNG. The more used weapons / items have a lower chance overall of dropping, this is why they are found among the last few for most people.

Yeah I know somebody is going to respond saying on their first run of vMA when it came out the got the staff. Great for you, doesn't mean it wasn't weighted you just beat the odds. Same as when people get the Radiant Apex mounts when they get a single box as a gift.

El_Borracho

Its random, but sometimes patterns of drops develop. I recall running Black Drake to farm the Kinras inferno. It dropped every weapon in order as seen in the stickerbook. Similarly, I ran Dreadsail during the event to farm out Perfected Whorl. For that, it seemed to work its way through weapon types instead of sets, so all maces, then swords, etc. of each set before moving on.

I had a similar experience as you @Amerises in Vateshran. During that event a month or so ago, I ran it wanting to get the S&B for my tank. It was the very last weapon to drop. It dropped the same way as the weapons in Black Drake, but the starting point was directly below the S&B and then worked itself up to the top and down again.

The only way I have seen to break these patterns is to run it on a completely different character. For instance, in Falkreath I ran my magplar and wasn't getting the daggers, or even Nirn weapons. Switched to my stamsorc and started scooping Nirn weapons each run. It doesn't work all the time, but I have noticed it seems to change the course of drops.

Varana

It's been a running gag for years that the game knows what you want and spitefully doesn't drop that item. So if you want a vMA staff, you should run the arena on a stamina character. And think really, really hard about anything but staves.

Most of this is just the psychological effect of randomised drops. So no, it doesn't work like that.
But probably not all of it - there may be some weighted randomisation happening. It's very hard to prove conclusively, though.

Now the question is - do they ever update that? After hybridisation, some combinations have gained a lot of popularity. Siroria daggers or greatswords, for instance.

Lumsdenml

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

It's RNG but it's weighted RNG. The more used weapons / items have a lower chance overall of dropping, this is why they are found among the last few for most people.

Yeah I know somebody is going to respond saying on their first run of vMA when it came out the got the staff. Great for you, doesn't mean it wasn't weighted you just beat the odds. Same as when people get the Radiant Apex mounts when they get a single box as a gift.

Is it weighted? I've never seen that. Do you have a link to the source of that?

Necrotech_Master

Lumsdenml wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

It's RNG but it's weighted RNG. The more used weapons / items have a lower chance overall of dropping, this is why they are found among the last few for most people.

Yeah I know somebody is going to respond saying on their first run of vMA when it came out the got the staff. Great for you, doesn't mean it wasn't weighted you just beat the odds. Same as when people get the Radiant Apex mounts when they get a single box as a gift.

Is it weighted? I've never seen that. Do you have a link to the source of that?

stuff like armor was weighted (if you wore mostly light armor, the drops would be preferential to light armor although still not a full guarantee), not sure about weapon drops though

this kind of thing would only really matter though once you have complete collections so stuff is not being curated anymore

DMuehlhausen

Lumsdenml wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

It's RNG but it's weighted RNG. The more used weapons / items have a lower chance overall of dropping, this is why they are found among the last few for most people.

Yeah I know somebody is going to respond saying on their first run of vMA when it came out the got the staff. Great for you, doesn't mean it wasn't weighted you just beat the odds. Same as when people get the Radiant Apex mounts when they get a single box as a gift.

Is it weighted? I've never seen that. Do you have a link to the source of that?

No I don't have a link to a source, but just nearly 30 years of playing MMO style games and first hand experience of what weapons myself and friends were getting. Normally maces, axes, shields were dropping first. The Resto / Ice staves and daggers/swords, then Fire / Light staves. That was normally the pattern i was seeing with everyone I knew.

Even now with start watching with new dungeons and trials. Most you'll probably get Maces or Axes first. Again there will always be those people that go in and in like 2 runs of a new trial get everything they need, but that isn't the case. I think that is another reason why it's weighted. If meta is always going to be fire or light staff by design for casters if those dropped first you'd struggle to get groups for trials as people would be getting what they want almost immediately it just makes sense from a design POV.