Since the year of Skyrim, we have had leads drop from treasure maps, mostly for ancestral motif pages. This is an interesting drop location for leads as it also gives value to treasure maps. Something that was quite lacking with these in the prior updates to West Skyrim. However, an issue appears in relation to the leads probability: Thier chances of being pulled from the loot pool.
It's their odds of dropping from the chest being too low in percentage based stats. This is exacerbated by the additional low probability of the correct map being selected in the first place. A further issue with these Treasure Map Leads is the inability to farm them as there is no reliable way to effectively or efficiently gain the desired treasure maps.
The closest to such is running the Reach Harrowstorm circle to pick up Greyhost Satchels. But, this stacks another wall of math against collecting treasure map leads, your chance of getting a map from the very satchel. This is four levels of probability to acquire certain leads you may be looking for.
To give an example of all these numbers stacking, you start with a 1/4 chance of a Treasure Map being selected as the loot from a Greyhost Satchel. If and then the reward is chosen as a map you have a 2/170 chance of being one of two Deadlands maps.
Next, there is still an unknown value, x, for a motif page to be selected when opening the chest. Further there are 14 pages to may or may not be randomly picked of Ancestral Daedric Style. And lastly, after this, there is an adaptive probability based on what pages you have already collected. Inwhich the further you progress, the less probable you are to gain your missing pages.
Also, it is unknown if the calculation for motif drops is linear or variable. Meaning that pages are all random with 7.14% chance each or ranging where perhaps gloves= 20% while chest=3% for example. A multi leveled calculation like this is very improbable of success, and highly probable as a failure.
We see this for ourselves with the prices of maps and their respected pages reflecting this issue with leads. A solution to this problem has to be found to reach a point of compromise, a place where both we the players and devs can agree on where the odds should be placed. At a point of balance where most players can use these features in ESO. As of right now, these chances are way to low and complicated.
With them in current values, it is less likely the majority of the population would acquire Treasure Map Leads and the rewards on their own. Something must be done to make Treasure Map Leads viable, otherwise why are they here if most of us cannot use them?
Edited by xXCJsniperXx7 on November 26, 2022 10:52PM