Okay, so to start off I know, I know RNG is RNG.
The lead can drop the first time you try to get it or the 10th or even 50th and that's just the way it is.
But here's the thing: Some leads just aren't dropping for me no matter what, for months of trying.
There are 2 in particular I noticed I couldn't get regardless of the time spent.
- Dagon's Scalding Gibbet - this one drops from Wandering Bosses in the Deadlands. Back when DLC first released I killed 30 of them for the achievement in one day. No lead of course, but well that's just bad luck. Except, here we are over a year later, and I haven't got it even once, despite killing few Havocrels a week. That's like at least 150 more chances for it to drop.
- Nest of Shadows - group dungeon Arx Corinium, specifically the final boss drops it. Since the release of Antiquities and Greymoor chapter (over 2 years) I got it only once. Pretty sure it was one of the few first times I ran this dungeon too. Since then I completed the stickerbook for this dungeon when that came out and continued to run it occasionally for pledges/random. That's around 40 times for the stickerbook alone and easly over another 100 runs on top of that.
I compare those two with the leads for mythics I decided to chase during witches festival (the ones i was still missing) and I noticed that leads obtained from killing bosses tend to drop pretty consistently and generously - the longest it took was 11 attempts, but usually within 1 to 5. Leads dropping from mobs are another thing, those took some grinding (hello Mora's Whispers - I hope to never have to kill another watcher or watchling again). Same thing with quite a few other antiquity furnishings - I dug up 30 of some and just started ignoring the leads if they drop again.
The thing is - I did all of that with one and the same character because I play only one character. At this point i have to wonder if those two (and maybe some other) leads are just bugged specifically for this character in particular. I know those leads are dropping for other players. If they weren't someone would have mentioned it long ago.