Pitiful Mount Chance Rates

KitsuneShoujo

I don't really buy crates hoping I get mounts or apex mounts, because that path leads only to despair and madness. But I can't say it doesn't irk me.

Since they shoe-horned the crates into the game I have put more money into those than I care to admit. I'm not a whale by a long-shot, but it's significant.

Not once have I ever gotten an Apex mount. Most of them I don't even like (apex or otherwise) so not a big deal, but I'd really love one of the lizard-animal mounts...

SkaraMinoc

The odds are 1:50 for an Apex reward. (source)

The probability of failing n times is (1 - p) ^ n

If you open 1 crate, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^1 = 98%
If you open 5 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^5 = 90.392%
If you open 15 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^10 = 81.707%
If you open 30 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^30 = 54.548%
If you open 50 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^50 = 36.417% or approximately 1/e
If you open 100 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^100 = 13.262%
If you open 200 crates, the probability of not winning is (49/50)^200 = 1.7588%



The longest I've gone without an Apex drop is around 150 crates I think.

Sorry you're having bad luck.

KitsuneShoujo

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

SkaraMinoc

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

They likely have outlier protection in the algorithm to prevent the scenario where you go 200+ crates without an Apex. But I agree a consolation prize would be nice!

newtinmpls

I remember in the olden days when crown crates from drops had anything other than potions and those motif crystals in them.

Danikat

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

They likely have outlier protection in the algorithm to prevent the scenario where you go 200+ crates without an Apex. But I agree a consolation prize would be nice!

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates, which get turned into gems, and then you can use the gems to buy what you actually wanted. But of course that's very expensive.

I think the only reliable way to get an apex mount without spending huge amounts of money on crates is to forget about buying the crates entirely and focus on saving up seals of endeavour to buy them directly.

alberichtano

And they say it is not gambling.

KitsuneShoujo

Danikat wrote: »

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

They likely have outlier protection in the algorithm to prevent the scenario where you go 200+ crates without an Apex. But I agree a consolation prize would be nice!

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates, which get turned into gems, and then you can use the gems to buy what you actually wanted. But of course that's very expensive.

I think the only reliable way to get an apex mount without spending huge amounts of money on crates is to forget about buying the crates entirely and focus on saving up seals of endeavour to buy them directly.

The main problem with seals is that they take so long, and you have a limited amount you can get a day, and the items in the seal shop are tied to the crates. If they put in everything from every crown crate ever and then didn't have them artificially disappear after time, then it would be worth the grind.

Danikat

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

SkaraMinoc wrote: »

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

They likely have outlier protection in the algorithm to prevent the scenario where you go 200+ crates without an Apex. But I agree a consolation prize would be nice!

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates, which get turned into gems, and then you can use the gems to buy what you actually wanted. But of course that's very expensive.

I think the only reliable way to get an apex mount without spending huge amounts of money on crates is to forget about buying the crates entirely and focus on saving up seals of endeavour to buy them directly.

The main problem with seals is that they take so long, and you have a limited amount you can get a day, and the items in the seal shop are tied to the crates. If they put in everything from every crown crate ever and then didn't have them artificially disappear after time, then it would be worth the grind.

I didn't say it was a good option, obviously ZOS want us to throw money at the problem so they're not going to make it easy or fun to get the items another way, but it is the only way to guarentee you'll get a specific item from the crates.

Milchbart

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I don't really buy crates ..... have put more money into those than I care to admit.

So you only needed so few words to contradict yourself?
Very impressive!

newtinmpls

Danikat wrote: »

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates.

I think in the past year (maybe two years) I have gotten exactly ONE item that was "a thing" (Senche cub of regret), EVERYTHING else across 3 accounts has been potions, poisons, motif crystals and maybe 3 or 4 riding lessons.

NotaDaedraWorshipper

newtinmpls wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates.

I think in the past year (maybe two years) I have gotten exactly ONE item that was "a thing" (Senche cub of regret), EVERYTHING else across 3 accounts has been potions, poisons, motif crystals and maybe 3 or 4 riding lessons.

Is that only the Twitch crates or? Because the Twitch crates only contains consumables+ 1 pet and mount.

Amottica

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I opened about 12 crates today, I was trying to get enough gems to buy what I wanted. I think they should have a courtesy win after you open so many lol. No RNG outside of whatever apex happens to be available, "here's your one free apex mount, enjoy!"

The probability is extremely small no matter how many crates someone opens. Each crate is its own dice roll. Considering they do post the odds I would not expect any changes until and unless enough area is covered by legislation requiring a change.

Essentially, the daily and weekly endeavor is intended to give us the means to get what we want without dealing with creates.

Danikat

newtinmpls wrote: »

Danikat wrote: »

I think that's what the gems are supposed to be - if you keep opening crates (of the same type) you'll end up with more and more duplicates.

I think in the past year (maybe two years) I have gotten exactly ONE item that was "a thing" (Senche cub of regret), EVERYTHING else across 3 accounts has been potions, poisons, motif crystals and maybe 3 or 4 riding lessons.

I take it you're only opening the free crates from Twitch drops? That's all that's in them, it's impossible to get anything else.

But the crates you can buy in the crown store have a chance at all of the items shown in their categories. For example here's the list of what can come from the celestial crates: https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Online:Celestial_Crate

Each of those crates is guarenteed to give 1 superior or better item, which is the collectibles and rarer consumables (like XP scrolls) and has a chance at a 5th card with a second higher tier item so if someone keeps buying them they'll gradually get more and more of the collectibles and end up with more duplicates - and therefore more gems - per crate, meaning sooner or later they'll be able to buy the item/s they really wanted even if they don't get it as a drop.

As I said the downside is that's very expensive because you'll need a lot of crates to get enough gems for a radiant apex (or even apex) mount, but it still means there's a cut off point where even if someone has horrible luck and never sees the item they want as a drop they'll still be able to get it eventually.

KitsuneShoujo

Milchbart wrote: »

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I don't really buy crates ..... have put more money into those than I care to admit.

So you only needed so few words to contradict yourself?
Very impressive!

That's called taking something out of context.

lizardman

Milchbart wrote: »

KitsuneShoujo wrote: »

I don't really buy crates ..... have put more money into those than I care to admit.

So you only needed so few words to contradict yourself?
Very impressive!

If you read their post correctly, you would have understood that they DO buy crates with the full notion that they might NOTget an apex mount. You interpreted it as "I don't buy crates."

Next time double check yourself before being cynical and rude.