Explain this odd loot curation phenomenon

krachall

I'm farming the public dungeon in Bangkorai for stickerbook weapons. I am down to just needing two more: Spriggan's Daggers and Seventh Legion Swords. I kill a boss and get the dagger. But I decide not to bind it as it showed a pretty good selling price. So I kill another boss: dagger. And another: dagger.

I check my collections and, no, I don't have the Seventh Legion Sword bound. So I should have an equal chance to get either.

Another boss: Dagger. Again: dagger. dagger. dagger. dagger.

In total, I got 12 straight daggers before finally binding one. Next boss: Sword.

There's about a 1:4100 chance of this happening with straight odds so I'm guessing something else is at play here. Any ideas?

whitecrow

Are some pieces more common than others? Sometimes it seems that way.

Elsonso

Just random.

Each pull is a 1 in 2 chance, and previous pulls do not matter. The 1:4100 is not a promise.

krachall

whitecrow wrote: »

Are some pieces more common than others? Sometimes it seems that way.

Definitely. but not 12-in-a-row common!

I returned to the game after loot curation and stickerbooks were a thing so I'm going back to base game zones to collect the sets.

I've completed All of EP, all of AD, and half of DC as well as a handful of DLC zones. The most common weapon drops in the game are staves by a longshot.

In ~20 zones completed, I have never had staves be one of my last 5 items. I'm usually done with all 12 staves in a zone before I get my first 1h weapon. It's not perfectly predictable but I can almost guarantee 2/3 of my first 10 weapons looted will be staves.

Daggers are almost always last or near last. And in 20 zones, my last weapon looted has always been a 1h weapon.

tmbrinks

krachall wrote: »

whitecrow wrote: »

Are some pieces more common than others? Sometimes it seems that way.

Definitely. but not 12-in-a-row common!

I returned to the game after loot curation and stickerbooks were a thing so I'm going back to base game zones to collect the sets.

I've completed All of EP, all of AD, and half of DC as well as a handful of DLC zones. The most common weapon drops in the game are staves by a longshot.

In ~20 zones completed, I have never had staves be one of my last 5 items. I'm usually done with all 12 staves in a zone before I get my first 1h weapon. It's not perfectly predictable but I can almost guarantee 2/3 of my first 10 weapons looted will be staves.

Daggers are almost always last or near last. And in 20 zones, my last weapon looted has always been a 1h weapon.

Resto staves will be more common.

That's because the game first does a roll for which type of weapon you'll get and then does a roll for which one under that subcategory you'll get. So if you roll resto staff, you're guaranteed a resto staff. If you roll destro staff... you have a 1/3 chance of getting a specific one.

For this reason most specific 1-h weapons are the least common. Which made farming for Tzogvin Dagger's back in the day a PITA

krachall

Elsonso wrote: »

Just random.

Each pull is a 1 in 2 chance, and previous pulls do not matter. The 1:4100 is not a promise.

Nope. but it's the odds of that sequence happening...and who knows how long it would have continued. It's enough to indicate it's not random.

caindele

tmbrinks wrote: »

krachall wrote: »

whitecrow wrote: »

Are some pieces more common than others? Sometimes it seems that way.

Definitely. but not 12-in-a-row common!

I returned to the game after loot curation and stickerbooks were a thing so I'm going back to base game zones to collect the sets.

I've completed All of EP, all of AD, and half of DC as well as a handful of DLC zones. The most common weapon drops in the game are staves by a longshot.

In ~20 zones completed, I have never had staves be one of my last 5 items. I'm usually done with all 12 staves in a zone before I get my first 1h weapon. It's not perfectly predictable but I can almost guarantee 2/3 of my first 10 weapons looted will be staves.

Daggers are almost always last or near last. And in 20 zones, my last weapon looted has always been a 1h weapon.

Resto staves will be more common.

That's because the game first does a roll for which type of weapon you'll get and then does a roll for which one under that subcategory you'll get. So if you roll resto staff, you're guaranteed a resto staff. If you roll destro staff... you have a 1/3 chance of getting a specific one.

For this reason most specific 1-h weapons are the least common. Which made farming for Tzogvin Dagger's back in the day a PITA

OK...so does it also do a roll to see if you get weapon or armor? For instance, I was in ICP today and got the Curiass of Leeching Chest piece even though I bound it and my sticker book still needed all of the weapons.

tmbrinks

caindele wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

krachall wrote: »

whitecrow wrote: »

Are some pieces more common than others? Sometimes it seems that way.

Definitely. but not 12-in-a-row common!

I returned to the game after loot curation and stickerbooks were a thing so I'm going back to base game zones to collect the sets.

I've completed All of EP, all of AD, and half of DC as well as a handful of DLC zones. The most common weapon drops in the game are staves by a longshot.

In ~20 zones completed, I have never had staves be one of my last 5 items. I'm usually done with all 12 staves in a zone before I get my first 1h weapon. It's not perfectly predictable but I can almost guarantee 2/3 of my first 10 weapons looted will be staves.

Daggers are almost always last or near last. And in 20 zones, my last weapon looted has always been a 1h weapon.

Resto staves will be more common.

That's because the game first does a roll for which type of weapon you'll get and then does a roll for which one under that subcategory you'll get. So if you roll resto staff, you're guaranteed a resto staff. If you roll destro staff... you have a 1/3 chance of getting a specific one.

For this reason most specific 1-h weapons are the least common. Which made farming for Tzogvin Dagger's back in the day a PITA

OK...so does it also do a roll to see if you get weapon or armor? For instance, I was in ICP today and got the Curiass of Leeching Chest piece even though I bound it and my sticker book still needed all of the weapons.

Only final bosses can drop the weapons and jewelry (as curated drops)

"minor" bosses drop small armor pieces

"major" bosses drop large armor pieces

(these vary from dungeon to dungeon)

So, once you have all the armor pieces (which happens pretty quick), you'll get repeats of those, even if you don't have all the weapons.

All items can drop from random mobs and chests, but those drops are not curated

bmnoble

https://dilbert.com/search_results?terms=Random+Number+Generator

Elsonso

krachall wrote: »

Elsonso wrote: »

Just random.

Each pull is a 1 in 2 chance, and previous pulls do not matter. The 1:4100 is not a promise.

Nope. but it's the odds of that sequence happening...and who knows how long it would have continued. It's enough to indicate it's not random.

You would have to run considerably more trials to determine that. You did a very small trial.

Fennwitty

The "RNG" in this game is incredibly sensitive to whatever seeding it uses.

Sylvermynx

Fennwitty wrote: »

The "RNG" in this game is incredibly sensitive to whatever seeding it uses.

I.... don't think that's different from the other MMOs I've played. For instance.... in WoW - Ashes of A'lar. Once I had a main at 90, I ran the instance trying for that mount probably a couple hundred times (I mean.... it was a level 60 instance IIRC so super easy - long time back now) and never got the drop.

My daughter ran that instance even more than I did, and never got it either. Her husband ran it a couple times, third try, mount dropped. He kept running the instance as he really enjoyed it....

He got the damn mount nearly every 2nd or 3rd time he ran it for over 2 years. And of course, there was no way just to "give it away"....

RNGeezus. Serious.

Fizzyapple

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

jedtb16_ESO

Fizzyapple wrote: »

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

curation only comes into play if you have collected an item. it's really very simple.

spartaxoxo

Fizzyapple wrote: »

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

First it rolls for which type of drop you'll get, and then which piece of that type. When deciding which piece, it will pick only from ones you don't already own.

So for example on the last boss first it will decide if you get a piece of jewelry or a weapon. And then it will decide which piece of you get, e.g. if you roll jewelry you'll get the ring of example or the amulet of wrapping points up.

In addition there's also now an additional roll to see if you get a named item, with that acting as a bonus to your curated drop.

Necrotech_Master

i mean it couldnt be any worse than failing to force a simple lock 12x in a row with 85% chance of forcing it lol (yes i have had that happen once lol, such a waste of lockpicks)

at least you can sell the extra daggers lol

AlnilamE

Fizzyapple wrote: »

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

So for zone sets, each type of boss has a loot table:

Delve Bosses - waist or feet

World Bosses - head, chest, legs or weapon

Public Dungeon Bosses - shoulder, hand or weapon

On top of that, some bosses have a "Named" piece that can drop that's outside of that list.

So you are never going to get a chest piece from a delve boss unless they have a named version of a set piece in their table.

So if you kill a boss and their loot table has 4 things you already have in your sticker book and 2 you don't, then one of those two is going to drop.

The same thing happens in dungeons and trials, but the bosses before the final boss only drop body pieces (outside of named items) and the final boss drops jewelry and weapons.

Does that answer your question?

SeaGtGruff

RNG.

AlnilamE wrote: »

Fizzyapple wrote: »

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

So for zone sets, each type of boss has a loot table:

Delve Bosses - waist or feet

World Bosses - head, chest, legs or weapon

Public Dungeon Bosses - shoulder, hand or weapon

On top of that, some bosses have a "Named" piece that can drop that's outside of that list.

So you are never going to get a chest piece from a delve boss unless they have a named version of a set piece in their table.

So if you kill a boss and their loot table has 4 things you already have in your sticker book and 2 you don't, then one of those two is going to drop.

The same thing happens in dungeons and trials, but the bosses before the final boss only drop body pieces (outside of named items) and the final boss drops jewelry and weapons.

Does that answer your question?

Except, if I understand what @spartaxoxo said, it doesn't necessarily work out that way.

Take a delve boss, for example-- waist or feet. The way I understood what @spartaxoxo said, first it will roll whether you're getting a waist piece or a feet piece. During this step it doesn't care what you've already collected.

Then it rolls which specific waist piece or feet piece you're getting, based on your curated loot table for that type of piece.

So if you've already collected every possible waist piece and only need feet pieces, but the first roll determined that you're getting a waist piece rather than a feet piece, you're going to end up with something you've already collected even though there are other pieces you still need.

But maybe that's not how it works; I really don't know.

Kwoung

I have never read anything from ZOS that indicated that drops are 100% random, and am more inclined to believe they are completely weighted, with the actual likelihood of any particular item dropping being able to be changed whenever they so choose.

So while yes, there is randomness involved and you "can" get the rarest item on the very first drop, it is more likely you will get it last, as many have noticed. This system also allows them to control the influx of any particular drop coming into the game. Other games have even taken it to the level of only allowing a certain number of a particular rare item per day/week/month to enter the game by having a hard stop coded in, which of course with loot curation isn't entirely possible, but if you read the wording they used about curation, could be if they so choose.

On the flip side, they may have put what they thought was the least desirable item last on the list just to be nice and give most players a break. However, if that is the item you are after, you pretty much need to "catch'em all".

AlnilamE

Kwoung wrote: »

I have never read anything from ZOS that indicated that drops are 100% random, and am more inclined to believe they are completely weighted, with the actual likelihood of any particular item dropping being able to be changed whenever they so choose.

So while yes, there is randomness involved and you "can" get the rarest item on the very first drop, it is more likely you will get it last, as many have noticed. This system also allows them to control the influx of any particular drop coming into the game. Other games have even taken it to the level of only allowing a certain number of a particular rare item per day/week/month to enter the game by having a hard stop coded in, which of course with loot curation isn't entirely possible, but if you read the wording they used about curation, could be if they so choose.

On the flip side, they may have put what they thought was the least desirable item last on the list just to be nice and give most players a break. However, if that is the item you are after, you pretty much need to "catch'em all".

I'm inclined to think that they don't do any of that and they don't care how many of an item gets farmed. I think they set the drop rates ages ago and haven't touched them since One Tamriel (until the curated drops came out)

I'm sure that if you look at the drops server wide, they will even out to whatever the drop percentage for specific items is.

MasterSpatula

I've seen similar results.

It sure seems like more's going on than mere chance can explain here. On the other hand, "improbable to a point approaching statistical impossibility" is shockingly common in this game.

spartaxoxo

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

RNG.

AlnilamE wrote: »

Fizzyapple wrote: »

Each drop is an independent event and the odds of the sequence itself doesn't matter if the length of the sequence doesn't change.. If you flip a coin 50 times and get all heads the next flip will still be a 50/50 toss. The thing I don't understand is how the loot tables are determined.

So for zone sets, each type of boss has a loot table:

Delve Bosses - waist or feet

World Bosses - head, chest, legs or weapon

Public Dungeon Bosses - shoulder, hand or weapon

On top of that, some bosses have a "Named" piece that can drop that's outside of that list.

So you are never going to get a chest piece from a delve boss unless they have a named version of a set piece in their table.

So if you kill a boss and their loot table has 4 things you already have in your sticker book and 2 you don't, then one of those two is going to drop.

The same thing happens in dungeons and trials, but the bosses before the final boss only drop body pieces (outside of named items) and the final boss drops jewelry and weapons.

Does that answer your question?

Except, if I understand what spartaxoxo said, it doesn't necessarily work out that way.

Take a delve boss, for example-- waist or feet. The way I understood what spartaxoxo said, first it will roll whether you're getting a waist piece or a feet piece. During this step it doesn't care what you've already collected.

Then it rolls which specific waist piece or feet piece you're getting, based on your curated loot table for that type of piece.

So if you've already collected every possible waist piece and only need feet pieces, but the first roll determined that you're getting a waist piece rather than a feet piece, you're going to end up with something you've already collected even though there are other pieces you still need.

But maybe that's not how it works; I really don't know.

It's supposed to be curated the entire time, so if you have no waist pieces left to collect, it shouldn't give you it.

N00BxV1

Zos uses a computer algorithm for random number generation. They also choose what items are more valuable than others by setting the drop rates. And this being a business, they have reasons to manipulate the "RNG" - like keeping you playing longer and spending more money. It's like a casino, but unregulated.

Item curation is proof that it isn't "just random" but instead can be, and is being, manipulated to get a more desired outcome - in this case items that you haven't acquired yet. Ever heard of Loaded Dice? That's kinda what we have here.

Anyway, there are so many bugs in this game, who knows if their rigged "RNG" is even working properly...

El_Borracho

To add to the OP's experience, I've seen a similar thing occur in Blake Drake Villa. I was farming on a mag character and basically went down the checklist for the mag set drops (True Sworn Fury). Not one weapon dropped from another set until I closed that one out, all over multiple runs. Curious, I switched to a stam character, and it did the same thing, except this time it was Kinras.

So I wonder if the OP was running a stamina character in Bangkorai which caused the Spriggans to drop over 7th Lengion

Elsonso

N00BxV1 wrote: »

Zos uses a computer algorithm for random number generation. They also choose what items are more valuable than others by setting the drop rates. And this being a business, they have reasons to manipulate the "RNG" - like keeping you playing longer and spending more money. It's like a casino, but unregulated.

Item curation is proof that it isn't "just random" but instead can be, and is being, manipulated to get a more desired outcome - in this case items that you haven't acquired yet. Ever heard of Loaded Dice? That's kinda what we have here.

It is pretty clear that ESO uses a weighted random drop system. Still random, just not uniformly distributed. That applies to the curated drops, as well, at least until the last item.

francesinhalover

Good ol vma were stams dropped staffs and mags bows.

Yup 100% rng