How do I barely get anything good out of 30 crates?

Cuwen

I understand that the crate system is gambling and I'm not guaranteed anything, but I thought out of 30 crates, I'd get at least 1 gold item, something that is in the 400+ gem group. Nope. Not a single one. Mostly potions, scrolls, and face/body markings.... I have reported this and will talk with ZoS about it, but I also wanted to communicate it on here in case people are wanting to buy these crates. Their RNG has gotten really bad. I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates. Their RNG now has gotten really bad.

francesinhalover

You are already luckier than me , i can't even afford one lootbox.

That being said... Its rng man... It sucks...

How many crown gems did you get?

Nanfoodle

0.23% drop rate or less on anything cool.

Kiralyn2000

Cuwen wrote: »

I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates.

Hmm. I think it's less an issue of the RNG getting worse, but rather that it sounds like you've been lucky in the past.

Nanfoodle

98% drop rate on common drops.

redspecter23

I don't think 30 crates is a large enough sample size to be a reportable issue. That sounds like a bit of bad luck, not a bug. It's working as intended. People tend to believe that a 1 in 30 chance of something means it's guaranteed if you take 30 shots at it. That's not how random works.

Nanfoodle

Just to put this in perspective. A 0.23% drop rate on anything cool is about 4 crates for 1% x 100 crate = about 100% chance to get something cool. If there is 10 cool things that's 10 x 100 crates = about 1000 crates to have a good chance to get the one cool thing you want.

Nanfoodle

Also odds are the same on every random chance so on 1000 crates, it's still only 0.23% chance you will get the item you want. So there is no guarantee even on a thousand crates you'll get the item you want.

Ringing_Nirnroot

I bought 60 crates and didn’t get a single item from the apex section

Icy_Waffles

I got the normal horse… twice. And for getting it a second time I was given 132 crown gems…

Toxic_Hemlock

Only 30 boxes; therein lies your problem, thinking the loot boxes are designed for the average player.

They are designed for the whales that won't stop buying them until they pay off.

Maybe watch this to see the real target of these boxes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EcLbewUexg&ab_channel=JoshStrifeHayes

phaneub17_ESO

I've only bought crates once throughout my entire time on ESO, 15 pack and I got lucky with two Sweet Rolls, converted them to gems and bought Psijic Cat and Wolf mounts. Never tried again after that, I do miss the bonus crate you got from ESO+ Trial with Subscription, now its just an extra 150 crowns.

DMuehlhausen

Cuwen wrote: »

I understand that the crate system is gambling and I'm not guaranteed anything, but I thought out of 30 crates, I'd get at least 1 gold item, something that is in the 400+ gem group. Nope. Not a single one. Mostly potions, scrolls, and face/body markings.... I have reported this and will talk with ZoS about it, but I also wanted to communicate it on here in case people are wanting to buy these crates. Their RNG has gotten really bad. I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates. Their RNG now has gotten really bad.

My Radiant Apex mount came out of the last box of 75 boxes I think

Fennwitty

Make sure you trade in those junk items for crown gems rather than use them. There's an 'extract crown gems' option at the crate screen, you can deconstruct many of those items into gems and then get what you want directly.

The gems are kind of the main thing really. At this point they expect you to buy enough crates to have the junk to convert into gems and get things directly.

DreamyLu

Don't forget the true meaning of the word "probability": it's probable, only. There is no guarantee (unless manipulated specifically). Reason is that between two events, it starts from the scratch: what happened before has zero impact of what will happen next.

Sorry if I'm not clear. I take an example: with a coin, you have 50% chance to get the face side. The 50% can seem a lot said this way, but as a matter of fact, you can very well throw it 200 times in a row and never obtain the face. The amount of chance doesn't say anything about when this will happen, if at all... It can be never.

That's why I will RNG with pleasure with something else than real money, otherwise, no way!

Cuwen

I did not know the drop rate for something really good was that low. If ESO wanted people to buy their crates, wouldn't raising it a little bit make more people buy them? Then they'd feel like they may have a shot. That low of a chance makes me not want to buy any crates ever again.

Cuwen

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Cuwen wrote: »

I understand that the crate system is gambling and I'm not guaranteed anything, but I thought out of 30 crates, I'd get at least 1 gold item, something that is in the 400+ gem group. Nope. Not a single one. Mostly potions, scrolls, and face/body markings.... I have reported this and will talk with ZoS about it, but I also wanted to communicate it on here in case people are wanting to buy these crates. Their RNG has gotten really bad. I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates. Their RNG now has gotten really bad.

My Radiant Apex mount came out of the last box of 75 boxes I think

75 boxes?????

Narvuntien

Its like saying I pulled the lever on a poker machine 30 times and didn't win... Its gambling most of the time you lose.

Lady_Galadhiel

Cuwen wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Cuwen wrote: »

I understand that the crate system is gambling and I'm not guaranteed anything, but I thought out of 30 crates, I'd get at least 1 gold item, something that is in the 400+ gem group. Nope. Not a single one. Mostly potions, scrolls, and face/body markings.... I have reported this and will talk with ZoS about it, but I also wanted to communicate it on here in case people are wanting to buy these crates. Their RNG has gotten really bad. I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates. Their RNG now has gotten really bad.

My Radiant Apex mount came out of the last box of 75 boxes I think

75 boxes?????

I got a radiant apex out of 30 crates once.Not this crown season.

DMuehlhausen

Cuwen wrote: »

DMuehlhausen wrote: »

Cuwen wrote: »

I understand that the crate system is gambling and I'm not guaranteed anything, but I thought out of 30 crates, I'd get at least 1 gold item, something that is in the 400+ gem group. Nope. Not a single one. Mostly potions, scrolls, and face/body markings.... I have reported this and will talk with ZoS about it, but I also wanted to communicate it on here in case people are wanting to buy these crates. Their RNG has gotten really bad. I've gotten crates in the past and usually manage to get at least 1 good thing within 15 crates. Their RNG now has gotten really bad.

My Radiant Apex mount came out of the last box of 75 boxes I think

75 boxes?????

Yeah, but I know people that got one from a gifted box as well. This last round of boxes I bought, after paying my annual sub, I opened 30. I got like 4 straight bonus cards as well 2 of which Apex Mounts, the rest of the boxes were mostly garbage though. It's streaky at times

Amottica

DreamyLu wrote: »

Don't forget the true meaning of the word "probability": it's probable, only. There is no guarantee (unless manipulated specifically). Reason is that between two events, it starts from the scratch: what happened before has zero impact of what will happen next.

Sorry if I'm not clear. I take an example: with a coin, you have 50% chance to get the face side. The 50% can seem a lot said this way, but as a matter of fact, you can very well throw it 200 times in a row and never obtain the face. The amount of chance doesn't say anything about when this will happen, if at all... It can be never.

That's why I will RNG with pleasure with something else than real money, otherwise, no way!

I would suggest the true meaning of probability is that it is possible. Probable means it is likely to happen. When the chance is less than 1% it is not likely to happen.

In short, getting one of the rarer items from a crate is possible, but not probable. The deck is stacked against us and we should know that since we know the odds.

Soulshine

I mean you "might" get lucky and win something you want, but most of the time that will rarely ever happen. You will just get a boatload of junk you don't want and can't even decon, and then a bunch of little things you can decon for very few gems.

If you buy 30 boxes, you are basically spending like 80 usd to get something like 200-300 gems.

The very least they could do is let you decon absolutely everything you don't want: pets, motifs, body markings, etc. so that you could at minimum actually get a substantial amount of gems from the effort -- but obviously if they did that, then you would get what you wanted faster which doesn't fit with their idea....

Nightowl_74

I get one pack of four every time new crates come out and for me that's fun but I doubt it would be if I didn't enjoy the randomness of the smaller items. Not the potions and consumables (those I just convert to gems) but the body markings, costumes, adornments, etc. I think of it kind of like dumping out a Christmas stocking, there might be some interesting stuff but I'm not expecting anything big.

markulrich1966

Nanfoodle wrote: »

Just to put this in perspective. A 0.23% drop rate on anything cool is about 4 crates for 1% x 100 crate = about 100% chance to get something cool. If there is 10 cool things that's 10 x 100 crates = about 1000 crates to have a good chance to get the one cool thing you want.

No.
It is 4 times 0.23%, not 1%.
It is the same misleading conclusion when people think their chance increases over the years when they play Lotto.
Each drawal resets the chance, each crate does so. You will never get above those 0.23%. This is a basic you learn in statistics in economic psychology.

The only somewhat realistic calculation you can do is gem conversion.
The gem rate was somewhat constant for me over 2 years, but lately seems to have declined.
I don't exactly remember the rate, as I stopped getting crates, but I think something like 100 gems in 30 crates.
So you could verify the rate, and then calculate how many crates you need to get the amount of gems to buy what you desire.

At facebook someone posted that he spent 650 US$ and 8000 seals like this, 2 mounts, the dress and the skin if I remember well.
Others spent 100-150 US$ hoping to get a random good drop, but got only "junk".

Larcomar

I'd be the first to admit that I have no real idea what crates are or how they work. But it's basically gambling right? The odds are going to suck and the house is always going to win. I mean, it's gambling...

I guess if I put a bazillion bets down on red and it came up black every single time, I might start to wonder if the table was rigged. But 30 bets doesn't sound like alot.

etchedpixels

Larcomar wrote: »

I'd be the first to admit that I have no real idea what crates are or how they work. But it's basically gambling right? The odds are going to suck and the house is always going to win. I mean, it's gambling...

Gambling disguised as something else. If it was at least properly classified as gambling then the rules to protect the vulnerable would apply. I'm all for crazy rich people buying silly things in game and funding it for the rest of us, but loot crates need regulating for what they are.

zaria

Fennwitty wrote: »

Make sure you trade in those junk items for crown gems rather than use them. There's an 'extract crown gems' option at the crate screen, you can deconstruct many of those items into gems and then get what you want directly.

The gems are kind of the main thing really. At this point they expect you to buy enough crates to have the junk to convert into gems and get things directly.

This, convert everything, now if you buy a lot of crates you will get many duplicated who is then transformed into gems you can then spend on that you really want.

JJOtterBear

u just wanted to buy the robes with crowns man. thats the only thing i really wanted.

nenekotanb16_ESO

If you get 30 crates, you've got (1-0.0023)^30~=0.933 = 93.3% chance to not get a radiant apex or about 6.7% chance to get one or more.

It's really, really low. Even with 150 crates it's still (1-0.0023)^150~=0.707 =70.7% chance to not get a radiant apex. Etc.

The chances for a normal apex are a bit higher: about 2%, but still really low.

When you check https://www.crowncrates.com/ you can see that this bad drop rate is consistent across their crates.

BlueRaven

I get that it’s rng as well, but if you buy the 15 crate pack there should be some hidden bad luck protection. People are spending the almost equivalent of a new game, throw them a bone already.

Dojohoda

You will get mostly blue drops and potions.