Curiosity: Has anyone done the math for the drop rate of the medusa inferno staff?

xeNNNNN

I am genuinely curious, I have some what lost count of how many runs and chests i've opened now and I am wondering if it is below 5% or something.

Anyone?

trackdemon5512

I got two this weekend.

Haha but seriously you have 3 sets in the dungeon with 7 body pieces, 3 jewelry pieces, and 13 weapons each. Meaning if everything was balanced you would have a 1-in-69 chance or a 1.4% - 1.5% of getting any specific piece.

Now compound that by the fact that all bosses except for the final drop only body pieces (outside of some specific named pieces which don’t matter statistically) and that chests are more likely to drop weapon based upon the degree of their difficulty to open and you see numbers shrink even more.

It’s all in your head if you think that ZOS had to assign a specific lower drop rate for just one item. Your individual chances of getting a specific weapon are already infinitesimally small. And if you think your co-players aren’t getting it they have the same chances and are likely keeping quiet if they get one.

OneWingedAnge7

Back during the witches festival last year I farmed for Medusas in preparation for the future, good insight I'd day.
Nevertheless I ran at least 130 runs before I found my first one, overjoyed I was. The following week it was the pledge and I got 2 in a day by popping chests and whatnot.
I don't know what the drop rate is but I do know it's 100% RNG

xeNNNNN

trackdemon5512 wrote: »

I got two this weekend.

Haha but seriously you have 3 sets in the dungeon with 7 body pieces, 3 jewelry pieces, and 13 weapons each. Meaning if everything was balanced you would have a 1-in-69 chance or a 1.4% - 1.5% of getting any specific piece.

Now compound that by the fact that all bosses except for the final drop only body pieces (outside of some specific named pieces which don’t matter statistically) and that chests are more likely to drop weapon based upon the degree of their difficulty to open and you see numbers shrink even more.

It’s all in your head if you think that ZOS had to assign a specific lower drop rate for just one item. Your individual chances of getting a specific weapon are already infinitesimally small. And if you think your co-players aren’t getting it they have the same chances and are likely keeping quiet if they get one.

Alright, just curious haha - mostly because I've ended up with a baffling amount of great swords and daggers of medusa.... and on the rare occasion i've seen maybe 2-3 ice staves and 1 or 2 restoration staves, one of which I got from a mob pack lol

xeNNNNN

OneWingedAnge7 wrote: »

Back during the witches festival last year I farmed for Medusas in preparation for the future, good insight I'd day.
Nevertheless I ran at least 130 runs before I found my first one, overjoyed I was. The following week it was the pledge and I got 2 in a day by popping chests and whatnot.
I don't know what the drop rate is but I do know it's 100% RNG

I salute your use of luck points haha I think I may have accidently lobotomised my friends taking them in there.

Alurria

Would be interesting to know for sure

PigofSteel

I got one but incredible lucky... Bsw and others... LoL

Amottica

I do not think anyone needs to to the math for one weapon dropping as it is probably the same for any given weapon dropping in a dungeon. It would not make sense for Zos to make it harder to get some dungeon weapons vs other dungeon weapons.

spartaxoxo

I have gotten 5 of the inferno and no lightning staffs....and I only want the lightning staff ofc.

Alurria

Amottica wrote: »

I do not think anyone needs to to the math for one weapon dropping as it is probably the same for any given weapon dropping in a dungeon. It would not make sense for Zos to make it harder to get some dungeon weapons vs other dungeon weapons.

Please tell that to the folks farming nodes in shadowfen, or anyother BIS weapon.

markulrich1966

no, but I got 4 of them this weekend. 2 evenings and nights, approx. 40 runs. Got 2 on the first day, and 2 on the second. Took longest to finally get the lightning staff.

Now I only miss axe, shield and icestaff in the stickerbook, but don't need those.

Important: I got all these 5 staves from chests, while staves from other sets also dropped from mobs or bosses.
I saw many people just rushing through ignoring the chests, what explains their complaints not getting the flamestaff.

xbox NA, high elf magplar.

GreenHere

I plugged the numbers into the most advanced computer that I have access to, and came up with this...

amm7sb14_ESO

Amottica wrote: »

I do not think anyone needs to to the math for one weapon dropping as it is probably the same for any given weapon dropping in a dungeon. It would not make sense for Zos to make it harder to get some dungeon weapons vs other dungeon weapons.

It absolutely would make sense. ZOS knows what the meta is, and what is in demand, and it would absolutely make sense to make those drop rates lower to keep people doing content for rewards.

It actually works against ZOS' interests to put everything on an equal level.

Dagoth_Rac

Only final boss drops weapons and jewelry. If you believe weapons and jewelry have equal chance, Medusa Flame staff is 1 in 45. If you believe it is 50/50 jewelry or weapons, then it is .50 * 1-in-39.

So it seems to be between 1.28% and 2.22% chance.

ZOS does not need to manipulate drop rates when raw odds are already so low. A 1.28% drop rate would mean that after 50 runs you are more likely to not get it than to get it. So if a slim majority are not going to get it after 50 runs, there are going to be lots of players going 100+ runs without it.

Ippokrates

markulrich1966 wrote: »

no, but I got 4 of them this weekend. 2 evenings and nights, approx. 40 runs. Got 2 on the first day, and 2 on the second. Took longest to finally get the lightning staff.

Now I only miss axe, shield and icestaff in the stickerbook, but don't need those.

Important: I got all these 5 staves from chests, while staves from other sets also dropped from mobs or bosses.
I saw many people just rushing through ignoring the chests, what explains their complaints not getting the flamestaff.

xbox NA, high elf magplar.

Yeah, lightning staff is the worst. Inferno dropped for me at least 5 times ^^

ResidentContrarian

Probably the same rate as a Medusa Ice Staff when you have had over 15 Medusa Inferno drop doing random dungeons and leveling up in the last month like me.

I'll say this, it's not as bad as the rate of Dreugh King dagger, FG 1 literally hands everyone out the same exact drop (destro stave from Spider Cultist quite often).

In fact, took me over 3 years of farming on and off (and random dungeons) for that one to drop

Don't worry if you are on NA and I am leveling and it drops, I always give Medusa away since I don't need it.

Wise idea not to boot low level players from N.dungeon queues like some of the players farming there have

FrancisCrawford

Amottica wrote: »

I do not think anyone needs to to the math for one weapon dropping as it is probably the same for any given weapon dropping in a dungeon. It would not make sense for Zos to make it harder to get some dungeon weapons vs other dungeon weapons.

Well, there's the standard question as to the drop rates of weapons -- do all weapons have equal chanes, or do each of the 6 weapon types have equal chances?

spartaxoxo

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I have gotten 5 of the inferno and no lightning staffs....and I only want the lightning staff ofc.

I finally got it!!!! Two of them in the same run lol. One from a chest and one from the last boss. 🥳 🎊 🎉 🍺 🍻 🥂



It took me since this long, off an on. But it's mine now. 🙌

Ippokrates

spartaxoxo wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I have gotten 5 of the inferno and no lightning staffs....and I only want the lightning staff ofc.

I finally got it!!!! Two of them in the same run lol. One from a chest and one from the last boss. 🥳 🎊 🎉 🍺 🍻 🥂



It took me since this long, off an on. But it's mine now. 🙌

OMG I took you almost a year?!

Lucky me... I spend only 3 months on farming this ^^

This should be another case for Spiffing Brit: "ESO, a perfectly balance game with literally NO EXPLOITS..." XD

Xebov

xeNNNNN wrote: »

I am genuinely curious, I have some what lost count of how many runs and chests i've opened now and I am wondering if it is below 5% or something.

Anyone?

What math do you want to get here?

Chests contain all the items of all the sets that can drop in the chests location. Each set has 7 Armor pieces, 2 Jewelry, 13 Weapons (including shield). Thats 22 items in total. For dungeons there are 3 sets. This means your Chance is 1/66 or 1.515%. For the End Boss there are no armors so its 15x3 items or 1/45 or 2.22%.
So of course its less than 5% because there are more than 20 items in the pool.

Alurria

Xebov wrote: »

xeNNNNN wrote: »

I am genuinely curious, I have some what lost count of how many runs and chests i've opened now and I am wondering if it is below 5% or something.

Anyone?

What math do you want to get here?

Chests contain all the items of all the sets that can drop in the chests location. Each set has 7 Armor pieces, 2 Jewelry, 13 Weapons (including shield). Thats 22 items in total. For dungeons there are 3 sets. This means your Chance is 1/66 or 1.515%. For the End Boss there are no armors so its 15x3 items or 1/45 or 2.22%.
So of course its less than 5% because there are more than 20 items in the pool.

Thanks, so less than 5% chance.

redlink1979

If you don't care about the item, it will drop sooner than you think: I don't farm and I've got my fire staff from a casual random daily run.

JanTanhide

IDK but here is what happened with my quest for everything Medusa: Took 157 dungeon runs to finally get it from final boss.

I ran it with another person who got the Medusa Inferno staff after only a few runs.

I've seen it drop twice for others in maybe ten dungeon runs I ran randomly.

And last but not least I ran the dungeon with a friend the other day and I got the Medusa fire staff from a chest (blue item) in the first farming dungeon run for him. (Normal dungeon).

So it seems to be random as heck and very rare. I got every piece of set gear that drops in Arx before getting the fire staff the first time.

GreenHere

Alurria wrote: »

Xebov wrote: »

xeNNNNN wrote: »

I am genuinely curious, I have some what lost count of how many runs and chests i've opened now and I am wondering if it is below 5% or something.

Anyone?

What math do you want to get here?

Chests contain all the items of all the sets that can drop in the chests location. Each set has 7 Armor pieces, 2 Jewelry, 13 Weapons (including shield). Thats 22 items in total. For dungeons there are 3 sets. This means your Chance is 1/66 or 1.515%. For the End Boss there are no armors so its 15x3 items or 1/45 or 2.22%.
So of course its less than 5% because there are more than 20 items in the pool.

Thanks, so less than 5% chance.

Less than half that, even with the more optimistic calculations!

The best way to farm items is with friends (preferably ones that already have what you're after, and are willing to trade drops you're farming for). That effectively quadruples your chances!

Failing that, you can always offer to buy stranger's drops in Random Dungeons.



I once paid someone like 250K gold for a BSW staff that I already had one of because my friend needed it, but I wasn't the one to loot it. And that was the day that I really learned that you have to be IN the damn dungeon to be eligible for being traded an item! That tiny detail never slipped my mind again! lol

Icy_Waffles

I haven’t had a problem getting it or helping friends get it.

AgentZenish

A guildie got it first run and was like, is this common?

yoyo420232

When I was farming for the jewelry I pulled a lightning staff from chest and inferno from the last boss in the same run

danno8

spartaxoxo wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I have gotten 5 of the inferno and no lightning staffs....and I only want the lightning staff ofc.

I finally got it!!!! Two of them in the same run lol. One from a chest and one from the last boss. 🥳 🎊 🎉 🍺 🍻 🥂



It took me since this long, off an on. But it's mine now. 🙌

Man are you gonna feel bad when they nerf crit damage or something. I would never spend that kind of time farming for a set in this game, the nerf/buff cycle is just too tight and unpredictable except for the fact that your best sets WILL get nerfed, that IS predictable.

markulrich1966

danno8 wrote: »

Man are you gonna feel bad when they nerf crit damage or something. I would never spend that kind of time farming for a set in this game, the nerf/buff cycle is just too tight and unpredictable except for the fact that your best sets WILL get nerfed, that IS predictable.

problem is, there is not much choice left.
I never followed the meta, as I prefer sets that match the role of my character and playstyle.

E.g. High elf sorcerers: MS and torugs pact. I do up to 40 daily delves to farm rare furnishing mats. With this combo, I can 1 shot enemies in there with a heavy staff attack.

wood elf sorcerers/magplars/mag-DKs: MS or war maiden with mad tinkerer. Less damage than the high elves above (less spell damage from race), but the AOE damage of the fabricant allows them to clear a delve as quick.

Necro using innate axiom, as it matches the skills I slotted.

Now I think I will have to switch to MS+Medusa+1slimecraw+1Iceheart.

As not only proc sets like Mad Tinkerer will be nerfed (I am far from the required 6574 spell damage for 100%proc), but also the crit chance and other damage from champion points now is reduced. So I guess also my MS+Torugs no longer will allow me to 1shot enemies.
It seems that I have no other choice than using the meta for now, as maxing out crit chance currently is the only way to get some decent damage. Yes, they certainly will nerf that too somewhen, but I will see then what to use or decide if I quit completely to then new released games.

Galbsadi

I know a couple people that have been farming for weeks or months for a BSW Inferno staff.

I don't personally care, so naturally I've found about 5 while doing random normals on my alts.

Now, flip side: those same people see Hollowfang drop like candy and have gotten multiple Master Resto staves.

I do care, so naturally they're rarer than Aetheric Ciphers for me.

GreenHere

danno8 wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I have gotten 5 of the inferno and no lightning staffs....and I only want the lightning staff ofc.

I finally got it!!!! Two of them in the same run lol. One from a chest and one from the last boss. 🥳 🎊 🎉 🍺 🍻 🥂



It took me since this long, off an on. But it's mine now. 🙌

Man are you gonna feel bad when they nerf crit damage or something. I would never spend that kind of time farming for a set in this game, the nerf/buff cycle is just too tight and unpredictable except for the fact that your best sets WILL get nerfed, that IS predictable.

I get where you're coming from, and am somewhat the same personally, but one interesting thing someone told me once is that that very thing you're trying to avoid IS the game for many people. They kind of enjoy the ups and downs in the meta, and chasing after it and grinding sets out when they're in their prime is the best part about ESO / MMOs for them. I never really had looked at it that way before, and found it interesting.