Potent Nirncrux & Fortified Nirncrux drops

Old_Foggy

OK I know that Potent Nirncrux & Fortified Nirncrux are rare drops but I normally do pretty well collecting them.. however for the last few days I have struggled to find them and was wondering is it just me having a run of bad luck or has the drop rate been altered or broken somehow ?. This seems to have changed since the double mats/ experience event.

TX12001rwb17_ESO

It is not just you, I farm Potent everyday and since the event ended the drop rate has become horrid.

For instance I am only getting about 1 or 2 per farming session and these are not short sessions mind you, these are sessions where I farm close to 1000 raw mats, normally I would have around 6-8 potent Nirncrux by then.

Casdha

If I didn't know any better, I'd say that rare drops, when it comes to RNG, are weighted to the amount you have received in the last 30 or so days. Surely they wouldn't do something like that.

Seriously, I have found that if I step away a while my luck with anything like that, be it nirn or roe or more recently atherial dust, my luck on finding rare mats are better when I come back. I've gotten 3 atherial dusts from nodes in a week and I didn't even know that was something that could drop before getting the first one.

Old_Foggy

TX12001rwb17_ESO wrote: »

It is not just you, I farm Potent everyday and since the event ended the drop rate has become horrid.

For instance I am only getting about 1 or 2 per farming session and these are not short sessions mind you, these are sessions where I farm close to 1000 raw mats, normally I would have around 6-8 potent Nirncrux by then.

It seems there is a problem or a deliberate act of skulduggery going on. I'm like you with the farming of them and weekends I'd make potent Nirncrux into several batches of ten to put on sale. Lets hope drop rates go back to how they were soon.

Old_Foggy

Casdha wrote: »

If I didn't know any better, I'd say that rare drops, when it comes to RNG, are weighted to the amount you have received in the last 30 or so days. Surely they wouldn't do something like that.

Seriously, I have found that if I step away a while my luck with anything like that, be it nirn or roe or more recently atherial dust, my luck on finding rare mats are better when I come back. I've gotten 3 atherial dusts from nodes in a week and I didn't even know that was something that could drop before getting the first one.

I know there seems to be a count on perfect roe, something like 1 in a hundred fish or at least that's what I seem to be getting.. as for atherial dust.. I have only ever found one of those myself. Maybe I'll take a break from the scavenging and see how it works out. Happy hunting.

AnonomissX

There is a glut of Potent on the Xbix NA server in the traders, prices have come down at least 5K gold. But My fellow guildies and I have noticed the drops are rarer for the last week.

zaria

AnonomissX wrote: »

There is a glut of Potent on the Xbix NA server in the traders, prices have come down at least 5K gold. But My fellow guildies and I have noticed the drops are rarer for the last week.

Yes prices are down, this is probably more to do with people having too much transmutes and simply make Nirncrux weapons and deconstruct.

fizl101

Same here, I usually do pretty well and its been incredibly low the last few days

GenjiraX

I’ve been in Craglorn for most of the morning and haven’t found a single piece of Nirncrux. Last time I was here, about a week ago, I had a pretty good hit rate.

HumbleThaumaturge

In the past, I would get, on average, 1 nirncrux per 45 nodes harvested (more or less), with 1 potent nirncrux dropping for every 2 fortified nirncrux (1:2). So, that would be roughly 1 potent nirncrux per 150 nodes. These numbers are averages only. One might go over 100 nodes without a nirncrux dropping. On the other hand, I once got 5 potent nirncrux from 3 consecutive nodes! [Happy Dance]

Lately, I am still getting (on average) 1 nirncrux per every 45 to 50 nodes. However, I am getting less potent nirncrux and more fortified nirncrux. From my most recent farming runs, I got 52 potent nirncrux and 139 fortified nirncrux. From my historical averages, I might have expected roughly 64 potent nirncrux and 127 fortified nirncrux. RNG? or did ZOS lower the potent nirncrux drop rate by 20 percent? I suspect that later.

Over countless hours of farming, I have experienced periods where potent nirncrux simply stops dropping. I once imagined that a Game Master was randomly toggling "Nirncrux On" or "Nirncrux Off" (maybe each time his cat jumped in his lap). I have even wondered if there is a finite number of potent nirncrux drops per hour per instance.

Anyway, from my own experiences (past and present), I agree that potent nirncrux drops have been reduced.

Aside: If I had known that the value of potent nirncrux would triple and quadruple, I would not have made all 18 characters 9-trait crafters. But back when it cost 8k each, it didn't seem like a big deal.

Ashryn

Same here...I've been getting some fortified, but no Potent in quite awhile. Thought I was just being unlucky, but this thread makes me start to think otherwise!

HumbleThaumaturge

TX12001rwb17_ESO wrote: »

It is not just you, I farm Potent everyday and since the event ended the drop rate has become horrid.

For instance I am only getting about 1 or 2 per farming session and these are not short sessions mind you, these are sessions where I farm close to 1000 raw mats, normally I would have around 6-8 potent Nirncrux by then.

Never have I ever (after farming a couple of thousand nirncrux) seen 6 to 8 potent nirncrux per 1000 raw mats. Not even close. And I have spent countless hours farming, with records. Historically I have farmed, on average, 1 nirncrux per 45 nodes, with 1 potent per every 2 fortified. However, lately (see my post above), I have been seeing 1 potent per 2.67 fortified, suggesting a recently lowered potent drop-rate. Now with the drop-chance Champion System buff slotted, 45 to 50 nodes is about 175 to 180 raw mats. So for 1000 raw mats, one would expect, on average, 6 total nirncrux, with 2 potent nirncrux and 4 fortified nirncrux (NOT 6 to 8 potent nirncrux).

Now 1000 raw mats is not enough to get a feel for the averages. Consider farming 20000 raw mats. Based on the historical drop rate, 20000 raw mats might be expected to yield 38 potent and 76 fortified. But using my latest farming numbers, the new, lower potent-nirncrux drop rate might yield 31 potent and 83 fortified (roughly 18 percent less potent).

XaRz

Perhaps not related but I see a pattern here with overland gear of high demand.

Yesterday I opened 30-40 chest in Deshan for MS farming. Only 2 MS items.
This never, NEVER happened to me.

Before event I've farmed at least 4-10 MS items per same number of chests... same seems to hapeen with Briarheart or Spinner but not that low compared to MS.

TX12001rwb17_ESO

HumbleThaumaturge wrote: »

TX12001rwb17_ESO wrote: »

It is not just you, I farm Potent everyday and since the event ended the drop rate has become horrid.

For instance I am only getting about 1 or 2 per farming session and these are not short sessions mind you, these are sessions where I farm close to 1000 raw mats, normally I would have around 6-8 potent Nirncrux by then.

Never have I ever (after farming a couple of thousand nirncrux) seen 6 to 8 potent nirncrux per 1000 raw mats. Not even close. And I have spent countless hours farming, with records. Historically I have farmed, on average, 1 nirncrux per 45 nodes, with 1 potent per every 2 fortified. However, lately (see my post above), I have been seeing 1 potent per 2.67 fortified, suggesting a recently lowered potent drop-rate. Now with the drop-chance Champion System buff slotted, 45 to 50 nodes is about 175 to 180 raw mats. So for 1000 raw mats, one would expect, on average, 6 total nirncrux, with 2 potent nirncrux and 4 fortified nirncrux (NOT 6 to 8 potent nirncrux).

Now 1000 raw mats is not enough to get a feel for the averages. Consider farming 20000 raw mats. Based on the historical drop rate, 20000 raw mats might be expected to yield 38 potent and 76 fortified. But using my latest farming numbers, the new, lower potent-nirncrux drop rate might yield 31 potent and 83 fortified (roughly 18 percent less potent).

You are aware that is 1000 of EACH raw mat, that takes a very long time.

Then again I have also gotten 3 potent Nirncrux within the span of 10 minutes.

Old_Foggy

I should have put in my original post I play on the EU server and was wondering if it's just this server that has the problem.

Before the double mats / experience etc event I was happy at the drop rate and now and then I'd find 2 potents or 2 fortifieds
in one node and a mix of other stuff, but the best I have had was 2 of each nirncrux in a node.. I have had days when drops were slow in the past but then another day it would snow nirncrux but it sort of balanced out and most weeks I'd have at least 30 potents and 40-50 fortified not a huge number but I have other things to do in game too. Happy Hunting.

PigofSteel

zaria wrote: »

AnonomissX wrote: »

There is a glut of Potent on the Xbix NA server in the traders, prices have come down at least 5K gold. But My fellow guildies and I have noticed the drops are rarer for the last week.

Yes prices are down, this is probably more to do with people having too much transmutes and simply make Nirncrux weapons and deconstruct.

1 week ago was event ofc prices all across board came down just wait this week it will skyrocket again... Market flippers were buying all the mats cheap now they will sell high...

AndyMac

Could be the server. I’m on the PC NA server - I have to say I’ve been getting quite a few nirncrux over the last couple of days - both potent and fortified- and I only farm when waiting for a raid to form or a dungeon queue to pop.

Old_Foggy

3 hours of running around on Craglorn and not a sniff at a Nirncrux of either kind. Before the double mats event the drop rate was ok for the effort and time put into farming there but now it's a real let down.

This is on the EU server and I would like the drop rate to be put back to what it was before that last double event. Would be appreciated if someone was to give the devs a nudge and ask them to fix it.

josiahva

I think people don't understand how RNG works. You aren't entitled to 1 potent nirn every 150 nodes, even if you crunch numbers and run averages all day long, there is no guarantee that if you farm a million nodes you will ever get even one potent nirn...every single node has exactly the same chance every single time....its always a garbage chance(2% or whatever). People should not be shocked that they have a 98% chance NOT to get something...they should be shocked that they actually DO get something. The point is as this quote says:

"Statistics mean nothing to the individual"

Some people are "lucky", some people are "unlucky", and some people turn from "lucky" to "unlucky" at the drop of a dime....this does not mean that anything has changed at all, it simply means that you realize what 98% of not getting what you are looking for really means. You chances don't increase just because you do something more often...that's not what random means.

Obsidian3

I have good luck getting Aetherial Dust and Kuta off nodes. I cannot for the life of me get Nirn or Perfect Roe to drop. RNG is RNG.