About RNG and drop chances. Lets try to understand how that works

Casdha

OK but here is a couple of questions for you.

Do you think the RNG is generated locally or server side? and How often is the RNG result updated?

The reason I ask is because they put in cool down timers on things such as refining fish. I don't know if you remember but when fishing first entered the game there was no cool down between fish. Back then, when you got a Perfect Roe, if you did it fast enough you could get several of them in a row once one hit. (my personal record was 7).

It also happens from time to time when harvesting nodes. I like to think of it as the RNG result gets stuck (not updated) as I've gotten several identical draws with Nirn stones in a row while farming in Craglorn, if the nodes are an identical type and close enough together.

Elsonso

Casdha wrote: »

Do you think the RNG is generated locally or server side? and How often is the RNG result updated?

It should be server side, as that is where all decisions about outcome should happen.

Each time a random outcome is desired, it should be created fresh and be independent from the last time one was created.

This is ESO, created by ZOS, and who knows what they actually do, which may be different from what people think they do.

Casdha

Elsonso wrote: »

Casdha wrote: »

Do you think the RNG is generated locally or server side? and How often is the RNG result updated?

It should be server side, as that is where all decisions about outcome should happen.

Each time a random outcome is desired, it should be created fresh and be independent from the last time one was created.

This is ESO, created by ZOS, and who knows what they actually do, which may be different from what people think they do.

I agree that is how it should be but sometimes I wonder, especially looking at the results from the event boxes and opening them fast vs letting a few seconds pass from one to another.

SidraWillowsky

I know what you're saying, but this shouldn't apply to loot drops over the course of many runs. If you get a screwy seed value for whatever is being used to calculate your drop, that value won't be used the next time you run.

I'm a statistician and sometimes have to impute missing data and then run models using the missing data.

The outcome of the models can change based on the seed value I use if the results are on the edge of statistical significance (p-value somewhere between .045 and .055). However, if I run the model many times and with multiple seed values, it will average out to the 'true' model results. Law of Large Numbers and all that.

The same should hold for ESO.

And, while you may be able to 'control' the RNG for stuff like crafting stations, you cannot do it for dungeons/trials/arenas/whatever; you get one drop at the end, so that's that.

axi

SirAndy wrote: »

Playing a stamina character? Your RNG is weighted towards magicka drops.
Playing a magicka character? Your RNG is weighted towards stamina drops.

What if I play hybrid ?

ghastley

axi wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Playing a stamina character? Your RNG is weighted towards magicka drops.
Playing a magicka character? Your RNG is weighted towards stamina drops.

What if I play hybrid ?

Then nothing drops, because you're dead.

axi

ghastley wrote: »

axi wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Playing a stamina character? Your RNG is weighted towards magicka drops.
Playing a magicka character? Your RNG is weighted towards stamina drops.

What if I play hybrid ?

Then nothing drops, because you're dead.

SirAndy

Another piece of code i had the pleasure to write:

- Introduce new loot for a zone/dungeon/area
- Make it so the player has to collect x amount of "fragments" they can then combine into one piece of awesome loot
- When they get to the zone/dungeon/area for the first time, bump up the weight on the rng to ensure they get a fragment drop quickly
- After their first drop, lower the weight drastically to keep them coming back to that same content


This should sound familiar to some of you ...

Casdha

Is it possible they are using some sort of failsafe code like a time limit for the server to answer the request and if none is received it re-uses the last value received. Could explain the addition of cool down timers on refining, to ensure extra time between requests so you don't get any duplicate answers.

SirAndy

Casdha wrote: »

Is it possible they are using some sort of failsafe code like a time limit for the server to answer the request and if none is received it re-uses the last value received. Could explain the addition of cool down timers on refining, to ensure extra time between requests so you don't get any duplicate answers.

Completely possible.
Remember, the code-base is still a left over from the days when ESO did most of its calculations client-side.
The server-side code was only added later, after the launch bot apocalypse.

This would also explain why refining mats to this day (if done individually) shows a clear pattern of segments:
...|Temper|No Temper|Temper|No Temper|Temper|...



PS: Any sort of temper drops (green, blue, purple, gold) are always grouped and followed by a somewhat equal length segment of no temper drops at all. Rinse and repeat.

xAarionx

SirAndy wrote: »

Another piece of code i had the pleasure to write:

- Introduce new loot for a zone/dungeon/area
- Make it so the player has to collect x amount of "fragments" they can then combine into one piece of awesome loot
- When they get to the zone/dungeon/area for the first time, bump up the weight on the rng to ensure they get a fragment drop quickly
- After their first drop, lower the weight drastically to keep them coming back to that same content


This should sound familiar to some of you ...

That really describes any gatcha experience
You Start and just on beggining you get a lot of rare Itens.. the sudenly
You can't eve get a 3 star character

(Saint Seiya Awakening, Bleach Brave souls, Fate Go... The Last one is the worst of the lot...)