Vateshran Hollows - Dropchance of Sets not equal?

emre.as.aslanb16_ESO

Just accomplished my 35th vet Vateshran run. The only reason why I am running it is because of void bash. So far no evidence that it's existing.

Isn't it dropping with a 16.6% chance, or am I missing something? 35 times in a row something different than void bash should be a statistical improbability.

dcam86b14_ESO

I've gotten it to drop like 10 x and since I'm a healer I just decon it.

It's exist for sure.

hagencopen

I know why you posted, its frustration. Its RNG.

pihlaja

I’ve been running it to get the healing staff and the 1h+shield. So far I’ve gotten mostly dual-wield weapons, which, by the way, have never dropped for me either from BRP or MA...

emre.as.aslanb16_ESO

hagencopen wrote: »

I know why you posted, its frustration. Its RNG.

Is it tho? Do we know if its truly 1/6th of a chance per set?

Firstmep

I have gotten every weapon multiple times over but no fire staff, over 70 runs.
R. N. G.

Gythral

like all RNG, if you actually want it - the chance may as well be zero....
It always seems that way

AyaDark

emre.as.aslanb16_ESO wrote: »

Just accomplished my 35th vet Vateshran run. The only reason why I am running it is because of void bash. So far no evidence that it's existing.

Isn't it dropping with a 16.6% chance, or am I missing something? 35 times in a row something different than void bash should be a statistical improbability.

I finally drop it.

Some friends get it after first try.

I try a lot to get it.

The same picture as you , but i get bows 50% times.

dcam86b14_ESO

Firstmep wrote: »

I have gotten every weapon multiple times over but no fire staff, over 70 runs.
R. N. G.

Sorry to hear, I got the fire staff 1st run and resto staff 2nd run....RNG

Greydir

emre.as.aslanb16_ESO wrote: »

Just accomplished my 35th vet Vateshran run. The only reason why I am running it is because of void bash. So far no evidence that it's existing.

Isn't it dropping with a 16.6% chance, or am I missing something? 35 times in a row something different than void bash should be a statistical improbability.

If the Probability of it dropping is 16.6% (each type of set has the same probability) than the probability of it not dropping after 35 runs is roughly 0.169% (each run has a chance of 1/6 of it dropping and 5/6 of it not dropping)

If the Probabitlity is dependant on the number of possible drop Combinations than we have 16 -> Void Bash has 4 of those combinations so a chance of 25% which would result in a probability of 0,004% of it not dropping after 35 Runs, which is still highly unlikely.

So yes, statisticly improbable but possible. There are other options, like the Loot table being skewed towards duplicates or something. But that is only possible to control if the sample is big enough.

stefj68

im getting close to 40 runs, and didnt drop yet for me either

virtus753

We know from the CWC patch notes (iirc) that Maelstrom drop chances are not equally weighted but are manually tweaked. I wouldn’t be surprised if those for VH weapons were as well.

PandaPalace

I only done 5 runs so far, the first 4 runs I got all restos, on 5th I got dw daggers. It's more ez and faster than vma imo but the gring just feels worse.

zvavi

Meanwhile I am trying to drop a bow for an rp build xd

emre.as.aslanb16_ESO

virtus753 wrote: »

We know from the CWC patch notes (iirc) that Maelstrom drop chances are not equally weighted but are manually tweaked. I wouldn’t be surprised if those for VH weapons were as well.

After 53 tries I finally got 1h+shield to drop for me. I got around 15 2h weapons, countless destro staffs and three restoration staffs. Maybe it's because I was running as a magblade and not on my tank who literally needs hours for one clear, obviously my fault then.

Seeing how weird some systems in this game are I could imagine a class/role specific loot table for Vateshran

Annurang

New to the struggle here... I'm betting there's something wrong with their dropchance algorythm. Yesterday I was dropping 1H swords (dropped 3 in a row), and today I dropped every destro staff, starting from lightning and finishing with x3 inferno staves... Im starting to think the algo is generating pseudo-random numbers from date or something (and the conspiracy theories begin ) Anyways this sytem is idiotic at best, you should be able to trade like 10 freaking weapons for the 1 that you want... Not like you haven't proven to the game that you're worth it after 10 runs... just put a vendor, slot 10 random weapons and pick the one you want... in MA too, no reason to make us sick of the game (cause that's what's happening for me)

PizzaCat82

Its like Inferno BSW, sure, it should drop a certain % of the time, but I'm pretty sure they made that percentage quite low since once you got it there's almost no reason to run COA anymore.

starkerealm

PizzaCat82 wrote: »

Its like Inferno BSW, sure, it should drop a certain % of the time, but I'm pretty sure they made that percentage quite low since once you got it there's almost no reason to run COA anymore.

I've gotten the BSW BBQ stick, at least, three times. And yet, I've never learned my lesson, and keep going back in for various reasons.