There is something wack about the Alessian Shield

Jeremy

So I wanted to complete the Alessian Order set for my new set collection. I still needed the shield still so I looked it up on Tamriel Trade. The average price was nearly half a million gold. This looked excessive to me to put it mildly... and anything posted beneath that price.... let's say for 30,000 gold..... which isn't exactly cheap.... was scooped up instantly and flipped for another 450,000 gold. All the other pieces of this set I purchased were affordable and normally priced. So why on earth is the shield so expensive?

So I went to the PvP vendor in Cyrodil to get one the old fashioned way. No way I'm paying 450,000 gold for one I tell myself. Then I proceed to spend over 2,000,000 alliance points trying to get one. Note that I say "trying" to get one. Because I actually never got one. Not even after filling up my inventory multiple times with loot boxes. Now I know why it is priced at nearly half a million gold.

I think the developers need to look into this. An error in the code somewhere or something. Because there is something wack about this Shield.

Calm_Fury

Jeremy wrote: »

So I wanted to complete the Alessian Order set for my new set collection. I still needed the shield still so I looked it up on Tamriel Trade. The average price was nearly half a million gold. This looked excessive to me to put it mildly... and anything posted beneath that price.... let's say for 30,000 gold..... which isn't exactly cheap.... was scooped up instantly and flipped for another 450,000 gold. All the other pieces of this set I purchased were affordable and normally priced. So why on earth is the shield so expensive?

So I went to the PvP vendor in Cyrodil to get one the old fashioned way. No way I'm paying 450,000 gold for one I tell myself. Then I proceed to spend over 2,000,000 alliance points trying to get one. Note that I say "trying" to get one. Because I actually never got one. Not even after filling up my inventory multiple times with loot boxes. Now I know why it is priced at nearly half a million gold.

I think the developers need to look into this. An error in the code somewhere or something. Because there is something wack about this Shield.

This is probably just RNG as everything else so don't really consider this as a fact, but I did notice that some shields seem to have a very extreme rarity compared to the normal rarity of similar sets.

This is just anecdata and my personal experience so probably just unlucky RNG streak.

Good thing about the Sticker Book is that it will make those things more visible if they are indeed a problem or just unbalanced.

virtus753

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

Jeremy

Calm_Fury wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

So I wanted to complete the Alessian Order set for my new set collection. I still needed the shield still so I looked it up on Tamriel Trade. The average price was nearly half a million gold. This looked excessive to me to put it mildly... and anything posted beneath that price.... let's say for 30,000 gold..... which isn't exactly cheap.... was scooped up instantly and flipped for another 450,000 gold. All the other pieces of this set I purchased were affordable and normally priced. So why on earth is the shield so expensive?

So I went to the PvP vendor in Cyrodil to get one the old fashioned way. No way I'm paying 450,000 gold for one I tell myself. Then I proceed to spend over 2,000,000 alliance points trying to get one. Note that I say "trying" to get one. Because I actually never got one. Not even after filling up my inventory multiple times with loot boxes. Now I know why it is priced at nearly half a million gold.

I think the developers need to look into this. An error in the code somewhere or something. Because there is something wack about this Shield.

This is probably just RNG as everything else so don't really consider this as a fact, but I did notice that some shields seem to have a very extreme rarity compared to the normal rarity of similar sets.

This is just anecdata and my personal experience so probably just unlucky RNG streak.

Good thing about the Sticker Book is that it will make those things more visible if they are indeed a problem or just unbalanced.

I might would dismiss it as just a personal freak chance of RNG on my part.

But the fact the market reflects my own experience leads me to believe otherwise. It is insanely expensive and rare on the market while all the other pieces of this set are common and affordable.

Something is up here.

Jeremy

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

virtus753

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

The shield may have a different drop rate, or it might have a lower supply due to other factors (like more people deconning it in the past) compared to other pieces.

It would require a lot more than 2mil AP to argue with confidence that something’s up with the drop rate, however.

Jeremy

virtus753 wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

The shield may have a different drop rate, or it might have a lower supply due to other factors (like more people deconning it in the past) compared to other pieces.

It would require a lot more than 2mil AP to argue with confidence that something’s up with the drop rate, however.

What about the fact they are rarely on the market and those that are are priced at around half a million gold while all the other pieces are common and affordable?

Would you say that is evidence that at least hints at a lower drop rate?

Kartalin

Hmm, let's do some math on this. Alessian is heavy armor and drops with jewelry and all weapons. 7 heavy armor pieces, 2 different jewelry pieces, for weapons there 3 flavors of staves, 4 different 1 handers, 3 flavors of 2 handers, bow, and shield.

Case 1: assume each piece has an equal chance of dropping. 21 different items, 1 / 21 chance of success = p = 0.0476 (or 4.76%). 2 million worth of AP spent on boxes = 2 million / 12 k box = 167 boxes

so what is the probability of getting no shields in 167 boxes? Using binomial probability with n=167, p=0.0476 and x=0, the likelihood of this occurring is: 0.00029 or about 3 in 10000 chance of happening, pretty darned unlikely.

Case 2: But if you've ever bought AP boxes from the town vendors you know that the results tend to be not quite as evenly distributed between armor, jewelry and weapons. I would go as far to say you get armor about 1/2 the time, jewelry 1/3 the time, and weapons 1/6 the time. Which means with 1/6 chance of getting a weapon, and 1/12 chance of getting a shield from that, there's a 1/72 chance overall of getting a shield -> p = 0.01389

So with binomial probability, n=167, p=0.01389, and x = 0, the probability now is: 0.09672, or an almost 10% chance of not getting any shields in 167 boxes.

I don't know exactly what kind of drop rates ZOS is using, but the second, more punishing one, seems a lot more likely to me and the math would support the lack of a shield in that scenario.

Edit: Case 3: What if armor, jewelry, and weapons each drop at a 1/3 rate. With a 1/12 chance of getting a shield from a weapon drop, that means a 1/36 chance to get a shield in each box, or p = 0.02778

In this case the likelihood of 0 shields in 167 boxes is 0.00905, or a little less than 1%. Not out of the question but pretty unlikely.

ganzaeso

As an avid over I know how to get them, but I am glad I held onto one for the sticker book. They are still atainable.

umagon

If you intend to use AP to get any of the pvp vendor shields, plan on spending at least 7million AP. It took me about 13 million to get two shields heart of the bastion years ago; and about 12million for two Alessian shields about two years ago. It’s always been like that with those vendors. 100K+ gold on the trader is normal.

jaws343

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

The shield may have a different drop rate, or it might have a lower supply due to other factors (like more people deconning it in the past) compared to other pieces.

It would require a lot more than 2mil AP to argue with confidence that something’s up with the drop rate, however.

What about the fact they are rarely on the market and those that are are priced at around half a million gold while all the other pieces are common and affordable?

Would you say that is evidence that at least hints at a lower drop rate?

I'd say them being rarely on the market may have some to do with the volume of players attempting to get gear for that armor set. It may be a limited number of players are even trying to use the set, pre-sticker book, and when they do get that gear, they may be valuing some set pieces over others and deconning anything they don't need.

I know if I personally look on guild traders for a set, and see it very sparsely, it likely means that it isn't a great seller and would be a waste of a trader slot to attempt to sell the item. So if, for example, I was rolling for Allessian gear, there is a chance I might just decon everything that I wasn't looking for, which might mean shields, in favor of dropping Necro pieces I know are going to sell as quickly as I post them.

Jeremy

jaws343 wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

The shield may have a different drop rate, or it might have a lower supply due to other factors (like more people deconning it in the past) compared to other pieces.

It would require a lot more than 2mil AP to argue with confidence that something’s up with the drop rate, however.

What about the fact they are rarely on the market and those that are are priced at around half a million gold while all the other pieces are common and affordable?

Would you say that is evidence that at least hints at a lower drop rate?

I'd say them being rarely on the market may have some to do with the volume of players attempting to get gear for that armor set. It may be a limited number of players are even trying to use the set, pre-sticker book, and when they do get that gear, they may be valuing some set pieces over others and deconning anything they don't need.

I know if I personally look on guild traders for a set, and see it very sparsely, it likely means that it isn't a great seller and would be a waste of a trader slot to attempt to sell the item. So if, for example, I was rolling for Allessian gear, there is a chance I might just decon everything that I wasn't looking for, which might mean shields, in favor of dropping Necro pieces I know are going to sell as quickly as I post them.

But it's just the shield that is sparse and very expensive. All the other pieces of the set are common to find on the market and affordable. If it was just a case of people not wanting the set and a waste of the trader slot then it wouldn't be be just the shield effected. No?

It just seems to me there is some particular going on here with this shield specifically. So unless it's intended, I think the developers need to give this a look because it seems to me it has a much lower drop rate than the other pieces.

etchedpixels

I've seen similar with motifs - about 3 minutes after they appear on tamriel trader certain motifs instantly vanish and re-appear on a craglorn trader at 25-75K gold or other similar prices. I guess there are people mining the trader site and trying to hold the total market of some rare items for gold.

Jeremy

etchedpixels wrote: »

I've seen similar with motifs - about 3 minutes after they appear on tamriel trader certain motifs instantly vanish and re-appear on a craglorn trader at 25-75K gold or other similar prices. I guess there are people mining the trader site and trying to hold the total market of some rare items for gold.

That could definitely be part of it too. As I pointed out in my OP - the second any of these shields are put up for a more reasonable price - say 30,000 - it is instantly scooped up and flipped for 450,000.

Jeremy

Kartalin wrote: »

Hmm, let's do some math on this. Alessian is heavy armor and drops with jewelry and all weapons. 7 heavy armor pieces, 2 different jewelry pieces, for weapons there 3 flavors of staves, 4 different 1 handers, 3 flavors of 2 handers, bow, and shield.

Case 1: assume each piece has an equal chance of dropping. 21 different items, 1 / 21 chance of success = p = 0.0476 (or 4.76%). 2 million worth of AP spent on boxes = 2 million / 12 k box = 167 boxes

so what is the probability of getting no shields in 167 boxes? Using binomial probability with n=167, p=0.0476 and x=0, the likelihood of this occurring is: 0.00029 or about 3 in 10000 chance of happening, pretty darned unlikely.

Case 2: But if you've ever bought AP boxes from the town vendors you know that the results tend to be not quite as evenly distributed between armor, jewelry and weapons. I would go as far to say you get armor about 1/2 the time, jewelry 1/3 the time, and weapons 1/6 the time. Which means with 1/6 chance of getting a weapon, and 1/12 chance of getting a shield from that, there's a 1/72 chance overall of getting a shield -> p = 0.01389

So with binomial probability, n=167, p=0.01389, and x = 0, the probability now is: 0.09672, or an almost 10% chance of not getting any shields in 167 boxes.

I don't know exactly what kind of drop rates ZOS is using, but the second, more punishing one, seems a lot more likely to me and the math would support the lack of a shield in that scenario.

Edit: Case 3: What if armor, jewelry, and weapons each drop at a 1/3 rate. With a 1/12 chance of getting a shield from a weapon drop, that means a 1/36 chance to get a shield in each box, or p = 0.02778

In this case the likelihood of 0 shields in 167 boxes is 0.00905, or a little less than 1%. Not out of the question but pretty unlikely.

I got plenty of Alessian weapons when I was buying the loot boxes and Alessian weapons are also plentiful on the market and priced reasonably. It only seems to be the shield that is affected for some reason.

I do get what you're saying and it does make a lot of sense to me. But it doesn't quite explain it for me why this shield in particular is so rare and expensive. I think there might be an error in the code somewhere making this specific shield drop less often than it should.

virtus753

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Jeremy wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Prices are going to be bizarre for the next while as people try to complete set collections. As demand lowers and supply rises again, the prices should drop.

The AP boxes are always a gamble, and they tend to be expensive.

Unless you need it now, which is what these sellers are banking on, then it would probably be better to wait it out until the market balances out.

I tired to buy this shield before the new collection system was released also and the same situation persisted.

So I don't think this is related to that. Besides, if that was the case wouldn't the whole set suffer from the same market demands? Why would just the shield in particular be affected?

The shield may have a different drop rate, or it might have a lower supply due to other factors (like more people deconning it in the past) compared to other pieces.

It would require a lot more than 2mil AP to argue with confidence that something’s up with the drop rate, however.

What about the fact they are rarely on the market and those that are are priced at around half a million gold while all the other pieces are common and affordable?

Would you say that is evidence that at least hints at a lower drop rate?

It could lead someone to try to test the drop rate, sure. But it in and of itself is not evidence of drop rates, especially with so many other factors involved. The market isn’t a singular product of actual drop rates but the knock-on combined effect of drop rates, total number of draws (which we have no way of knowing), decon/destruction rates (which we also have no way of knowing), and willingness of others to sell if they do get and choose not to decon/destroy it.

We do know that not all set pieces in game have equal drop rates. But the ones we know that for are Maelstrom weapons specifically. I don’t think we can assume they manually adjust all sets, and I fail to see why they would want to adjust Alessian shields in particular.

But if someone wants to test it with a statistically significant sample, I’m all ears.

Emmagoldman

Alessian is huge with some troll tank builds in pvp and just became popular a couple of weeks ago. In the past, almost nobody had that set, now the demand is just stupid