Have you noticed less surveys?

VaranisArano

Trinket61 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

the only way to get the surveys is from doing the daily crafting writs. 0.o They are intricately related.

[snip]

VaranisArano wrote: »

I'd be more inclined to believe that the amount of writs had deviated substantially over the last month for certain players enough to indicate that the RNG had changed for them or in general...if they ever actually brought the data.
S.

Varanis is clearly talking about the drop rate of master writs as the number of daily crafting writs does not vary.
note: they are different!

[snip]

[Edited to remove Baiting]

I've corrected the post to clarify surveys, not master writs, as you are correct that surveys are the particular crafting writ reward being complained about in this thread. Thanks for catching my mistake!

Fortunately, it doesn't change anything substantial about my post, since I've seen similar threads like this one for master writs, improvement mats, and just about every other crafting writ reward.

Trinket61

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thus, your standard sample size would be adequate. ~500 "trials" for about a 5% error, ~1000 "trials" for about ~3% error. This is of EACH INDIVIDUAL TRIAL

Hi again

Its patch night so i was rereading through your posts. And color me intrigued.

I was hoping you would use the industry standard formula i posted so i could see how you arrived at your above quoted sample sizes.

Would you mind terribly doing that to help me out?
please show your math and list your declarations.

Thanks in advance

edit = Just to be clear when you say "Trials" you mean daily crafting writ yea? because to me using the word Trials in the game means a totally different thing and doesn't exactly bring clarity in its use.
[snip]

[Edited to remove Baiting]

tmbrinks

Trinket61 wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Thus, your standard sample size would be adequate. ~500 "trials" for about a 5% error, ~1000 "trials" for about ~3% error. This is of EACH INDIVIDUAL TRIAL

Hi again

Its patch night so i was rereading through your posts. And color me intrigued.

I was hoping you would use the industry standard formula i posted so i could see how you arrived at your above quoted sample sizes.

Would you mind terribly doing that to help me out?
please show your math and list your declarations.

Thanks in advance

edit = Just to be clear when you say "Trials" you mean daily crafting writ yea? because to me using the word Trials in the game means a totally different thing .

No. It's a game. I'm here to have fun, not do all your work for you. The data is publicly available. Do it yourself.

And yes, I'm using the word "trial" in the statistical sense. [snip]

[Edited to remove Baiting]

Trinket61

tmbrinks wrote: »

No. It's a game. I'm here to have fun, not do all your work for you. The data is publicly available. Do it yourself.

And yes, I'm using the word "trial" in the statistical sense. [snip]

Thank you for your reply ,

Would you mind sharing how you worked out your data and obtained your results plz. You have already done the work

I apologize , its just that i have never seen the word "Trial" used in statistics so it wasn't obvious to me. I would appreciate the opportunity to learn something new if you would take the time to explain

ZOS_ConnorG

Greetings all,

After review we have had to edit or remove several posts for rule violations, mostly Baiting. Ensure when engaging in a discussion that you keep said discussion civil, constructive, and within the rules. If you see a post that is baiting in nature do not engage it with further hostility and instead report it for the moderators to review.

You are welcome to review the Community Rules here.

Trinket61

ZOS_ConnorG wrote: »

Greetings all,

After review we have had to edit or remove several posts for rule violations, mostly Baiting. Ensure when engaging in a discussion that you keep said discussion civil, constructive, and within the rules. If you see a post that is baiting in nature do not engage it with further hostility and instead report it for the moderators to review.

You are welcome to review the Community Rules here.

I have read your rules very carefully , twice, and after the first time i have been very careful to adhere to the guidelines.

To help prevent such event occurring in the future and to help others who read this post. Could you explain how a general comment (not directed at anyone in particular) can be interpreted as baiting, and what was so provocative?

I thought i was politely expressing a point of view. I was not even being contradictory.

You say Mostly Baiting , what were the other rule violations?

I ask these questions Mr Connor, because i seek understanding of where you draw that line so that i do not cross it in the future.

Obsidian3

Well, my drop rate for Furniture mats has gone into the toilet. I was out all weekend farming. Now my Kuta drop rate went through the roof though. Go figure...also was farming surveys and my Plentiful Harvest didn't proc once last night, that was a bummer...RNG is...well RNG.

Slyclone

Took me 18 months to get 3 dust. I know people who get them once a week. Complete garbage system.

tmbrinks

Slyclone wrote: »

Took me 18 months to get 3 dust. I know people who get them once a week. Complete garbage system.

What does Aetherial Dust (which I assume you're talking about, since platinum dust, that would be 1 node) have to do with surveys?

Aetherial Dust drops from any node in a base-game zone.

Slyclone

I'm talking about anything rare. It was definitely tweaked march/april 2020 to be even more rare.

tmbrinks

Slyclone wrote: »

I'm talking about anything rare. It was definitely tweaked march/april 2020 to be even more rare.

Do you have some data/evidence of these changed drop rates? Or just an anecdote?

Anecdotes and "feelings" that rates have changed are fine for figuring out what to look at to find evidence of any changes. But without any evidence, it's just a hunch, but no way to know for sure. (look up some human psychology research at how bad humans are at remembering random events and predicting their outcomes)

I can only definitively say that the drop rates from writ rewards and refining have not changed. I even have two years + worth of data to prove it, and it's publically shared in my signature below.

DaveMoeDee

Slyclone wrote: »

Took me 18 months to get 3 dust. I know people who get them once a week. Complete garbage system.

That is how rare events work. You just don't want rare drops. They aren't going to eliminate rare drops.

QenQuni

Doing crafting dailies on 15 toons, and yes your right the amount of surveys we get has indeed been tuned down, especially the craglorn surveys seem to be very rare at the moment. Evevry time my other locations hit a stack of 20+ craglorn survey stacks dont even hit a stack of 10 yet... this repeats for months already

tmbrinks

QenQuni wrote: »

Doing crafting dailies on 15 toons, and yes your right the amount of surveys we get has indeed been tuned down, especially the craglorn surveys seem to be very rare at the moment. Evevry time my other locations hit a stack of 20+ craglorn survey stacks dont even hit a stack of 10 yet... this repeats for months already

That's because you have an equal chance of getting a "Craglorn" survey as any other non-chapter zone... but they're split into 3 separate stacks because there's a I, II, and a III version. Thus, your craglorn stacks will be smaller. No nerf, nothing nefarious, just simple math.

QenQuni

Ok my bad for failing to mention that im talking about I, Ii and II combined... lets say when i have 20+ surveys for all the other zones... the I, II and II for craglorn all combined for example blacksmithing dont even add up to 10 surveys total

tmbrinks

Ah, there's a chance that they've adjusted the drop rates per specific zone. (I wouldn't be shocked if they emphasize the surveys in "new" zones to encourage more people to go there, but anecdotally I haven't seen evidence of this.)

I don't track surveys by location (at least not yet) I have a personal add-on I've written that tracks everything that drops from any container in the game and I'll eventually be able to see that data on a per-character basis for what drops, but it would literally take a decade of data from a single character to have enough to be statistically relevant.

That said, I have been tracking drop rates from writ rewards on my two accounts for more than 2 years. There has been absolutely ZERO evidence that there has been any wholesale changes in the drop rates for surveys overall in that time. The only time there was was when there was a bug when Elsweyr came out and things were dropping differently from accounts that had Elsweyr versus those that didn't.

I have two accounts that I check on to see if this comes up again, one that always buys the new chapter when it comes out, and one that only buys it a year later when I can get it for gold at a crown exchange.

QenQuni

Its awesome that you keep track of those things thats a big help to the community I do want to point out that its very possible that the formulas that determine how many and what surveys you get might be different for PC then for PS4 and Xbox, i play on the Ps4/5 myself and the only bug i ever encountered was that we got 2x surveys instead of one for a few days also on Elsweyr release. i dont keep spreadsheets myself but because im a bit of a lazy player and stack up my surveys in my banker and only do them 5-6 times a year, i do see a difference over the last 6 months or so from my stacks, before that the amount of surveys for each zone was pretty much the same in general, but again this might not be the case for PC gamers.