Probability of getting a certain monster shoulder?

UGotBenched91

So, I’m just curious if anyone knows the probability/drop rate of getting a Specific monster shoulder from turning in undaunted keys?

Honestly just bored and curious as I know when it was in chests people had an idea and know that they are easier to get im wondering what chances are if a specific one dropping.

Nestor

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

UGotBenched91

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

BoraxFlux

If you have enough alliance points or gold, you could check out the Golden Vendor in Cyrodiil too, each weekend she appears in one of each alliance Cyrodiil bases and sells random monster shoulders /monstermasks or golden quality set-jewelry.

Lucky_jackal

There’s 3 shoulder weights, 9 traits to drop in, and 12 monster sets in red beard’s one key coffers.

1/3 x 1/9 x 1/12 x 100% = 0.308% chance to get that exact shoulder combo from the single key coffer. (Seline medium divine shoulder)

redspecter23

Lucky_jackal wrote: »

There’s 3 shoulder weights, 9 traits to drop in, and 12 monster sets in red beard’s one key coffers.

1/3 x 1/9 x 1/12 x 100% = 0.308% chance to get that exact shoulder combo from the single key coffer. (Seline medium divine shoulder)

It's not a whole lot better, but Nirnhoned doesn't drop in those coffers so it should be only 8 traits possible

precambria

Expect to have to transmute, also selenes was on the Golden vendor just last week... gotta check there man

UGotBenched91

Lucky_jackal wrote: »

There’s 3 shoulder weights, 9 traits to drop in, and 12 monster sets in red beard’s one key coffers.

1/3 x 1/9 x 1/12 x 100% = 0.308% chance to get that exact shoulder combo from the single key coffer. (Seline medium divine shoulder)

I appreciate your math! Got the exact drop so I was just curious how my luck was yesterday.

AusDingo

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Lucky_jackal wrote: »

There’s 3 shoulder weights, 9 traits to drop in, and 12 monster sets in red beard’s one key coffers.

1/3 x 1/9 x 1/12 x 100% = 0.308% chance to get that exact shoulder combo from the single key coffer. (Seline medium divine shoulder)

I appreciate your math! Got the exact drop so I was just curious how my luck was yesterday.

Are you assuming that each item has the same drop rate?
For example, if there was only 2 items without traits or weights. Are you just going to say thats 50 percent? If so then you could be very wrong unless you have confirmation that the drop rate percentage is the same on each items.

I been after the shoulders for so long and am thinking they have a much less drop rate than other items

FrancisCrawford

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

Assuming that RNG is working:

• The chance of getting Selene is 1/12 if you turn in a single key or 1/2 if you turn in 5 keys. The former is a better deal if you're also interested in other sets.
• The chance of medium is 1/3.
• The chance of divines is 1/8.

Go forth and multiply.

FrancisCrawford

Anyhow, in most cases I run with imperfect shoulders. In a few cases I got lucky, and in a couple of others I use a particular set so much I transmuted the shoulders. But the difference between a good and bad trait on a particular armor piece really doesn't amount to very much.

And by the way -- if you want to use the same sets on different characters, some of whom have ranked up in Undaunted Mettle and some of whom haven't, you may want to use different weights of armor.

AusDingo

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

Assuming that RNG is working:

• The chance of getting Selene is 1/12 if you turn in a single key or 1/2 if you turn in 5 keys. The former is a better deal if you're also interested in other sets.
• The chance of medium is 1/3.
• The chance of divines is 1/8.

Go forth and multiply.

Just wondering on how would the odds change just because you have more keys? Surely the odds relate to just that one instance. And are you saying that each item has the same percentage to drop? You dont think each items probability differs?

AusDingo

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

So, I’m just curious if anyone knows the probability/drop rate of getting a Specific monster shoulder from turning in undaunted keys?

Honestly just bored and curious as I know when it was in chests people had an idea and know that they are easier to get im wondering what chances are if a specific one dropping.

I think the answers you got were people assuming that each item has the same probability. For example if there were 2 items that you will get 50 percent chance on getting one that you are wanting. But that does not mean they both have the same chance on dropping.

It is like Gilirion the Redbeard has 100 Stormfist shoulders and 4 Selene shoulders in his chest

Zenzuki

If you pay "one key" it pools from the entire complement of gear (12 sets) that that particular npc offers.

If you pay "five" keys, it chooses from just two sets, and you pick which two from the list.

weights and traits math is no different, but you definitely get a much better shot at a particular piece of set gear by removing 10 other sets I'd think.

ShawnLaRock

The probability is low enough, that I wait until a particular Monster Shoulder pops up at The Golden.

Getting the Helm - even with having to buy the specific Dungeon DLC; learn the Vet mechanics; and possibly get a weight trade from another player - STILL seems easier & more efficient for me... than wasting keys on crap shoulder RNG from the Undaunted chests.

S.

idk

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

That is easy.

The probability of getting a Seline shoulder should be 1/12 as there are 12 shoulders that drop from Gilirions chest. For a medium Seline the odds become 1/36 as there are three weights for each shoulder.

The divines are irrelevant since we can change traits.

idk

AusDingo wrote: »

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

Assuming that RNG is working:

• The chance of getting Selene is 1/12 if you turn in a single key or 1/2 if you turn in 5 keys. The former is a better deal if you're also interested in other sets.
• The chance of medium is 1/3.
• The chance of divines is 1/8.

Go forth and multiply.

Just wondering on how would the odds change just because you have more keys? Surely the odds relate to just that one instance. And are you saying that each item has the same percentage to drop? You dont think each items probability differs?

@AusDingo

Each use of the key is it's own event and dice roll. One attempt does not impact another. Each possibility should have the same percentage as there is no reason for it to be otherwise.

FrancisCrawford

AusDingo wrote: »

FrancisCrawford wrote: »

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

Assuming that RNG is working:

• The chance of getting Selene is 1/12 if you turn in a single key or 1/2 if you turn in 5 keys. The former is a better deal if you're also interested in other sets.
• The chance of medium is 1/3.
• The chance of divines is 1/8.

Go forth and multiply.

Just wondering on how would the odds change just because you have more keys? Surely the odds relate to just that one instance. And are you saying that each item has the same percentage to drop? You dont think each items probability differs?

I think that the intent is for the probabilities to be equal. And while I have little confidence in the accuracy of ZoS' RNG coding, I'm not aware of any compelling evidence of any particular direction of non-randomness.

Elwendryll

Hmmm. When some people say that you have more chances with 5 keys, they just mean that all 3 NPCs sell specific chests for 5 keys that guarantee you a drop from exactly 2 sets. It's not the probability with 5 regular chests, but one of these special chests.

So if you look for a medium selene, regardless of trait, it's 1\6 with the appropriate 5 key chest.

mairwen85

On a 5 key purchase, IDK is correct you have a chance of 1:3 weight, 1:2 set, 1:8 trait, which would be a pool of 48 possible outcomes (3*2*8 = 48 ), or 1/48 chance, but since trait doesn't matter on the weight you want due to the option of transmutation we can condense the 8 traits for our ideal weight to 1 (reduce pool by 7) but have to keep the traits for the other weights in the pool as we can't assume any usefulness of transmutation on pieces we don't want. So the odds are: 1/41 (2.4%), or 41:1 against. Or 36:1 when ignoring all traits on all weights.

On a single key purchase the math stays the same but the pool is larger. So if there are a total of 12 monster sets,
3*12*8 is a total pool of ‭288, reduction for trait = 281; 1/281‬ (0.36%), or 281:1 against.

Edit As corrected:

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO wrote: »

For 5 keys a pool of 48, yes, BUT if traits are not important, 8 of the outcomes are fine, so 8/48=1/6, NOT 1/41. For 1 key a pool of 288, but again, 8/288=1/36, NOT 1/281.

AusDingo

idk wrote: »

UGotBenched91 wrote: »

Nestor wrote: »

Define the one you want. Trait and Weight included or just the set?

Seline medium divine stamina

That is easy.

The probability of getting a Seline shoulder should be 1/12 as there are 12 shoulders that drop from Gilirions chest. For a medium Seline the odds become 1/36 as there are three weights for each shoulder.

The divines are irrelevant since we can change traits.

You are missing my point. Why do you say it is 1/12 chance? You are just assuring all pieces drop at the same rate. How do you know the portability is shared evenly among the items?

terrordactyl1971

I am not sure each set is 50/50

I have opened 4 boxes and had Velidreth shoulders each time, not a single Mighty Chudan shoulder.....which is pissing me off

AusDingo

mairwen85 wrote: »

On a 5 key purchase, IDK is correct you have a chance of 1:3 weight, 1:2 set, 1:8 trait, which would be a pool of 48 possible outcomes (3*2*8 = 48 ), or 1/48 chance, but since trait doesn't matter on the weight you want due to the option of transmutation we can condense the 8 traits for our ideal weight to 1 (reduce pool by 7) but have to keep the traits for the other weights in the pool as we can't assume any usefulness of transmutation on pieces we don't want. So the odds are: 1/41 (2.4%), or 41:1 against

On a single key purchase the math stays the same but the pool is larger. So if there are a total of 12 monster sets,
3*12*8 is a total pool of ‭288, reduction for trait = 281; 1/281‬ (0.36%), or 281:1 against.

Where did you read the probability of each item. Just because there are a number of items to drop dont mean they all drop at the same probability. You are just equally diving the probability amount the items evenly. But I cant see anything that confirms all items have same drop rate. I just see evasions saying that all item have the same drop rate.

If I had a basket that i put apples and bananas in. Would you assume that I have the same amount of each it it? Is there nothing stopping me putting more apples in than bananas?

terrordactyl1971

AusDingo wrote: »

mairwen85 wrote: »

On a 5 key purchase, IDK is correct you have a chance of 1:3 weight, 1:2 set, 1:8 trait, which would be a pool of 48 possible outcomes (3*2*8 = 48 ), or 1/48 chance, but since trait doesn't matter on the weight you want due to the option of transmutation we can condense the 8 traits for our ideal weight to 1 (reduce pool by 7) but have to keep the traits for the other weights in the pool as we can't assume any usefulness of transmutation on pieces we don't want. So the odds are: 1/41 (2.4%), or 41:1 against

On a single key purchase the math stays the same but the pool is larger. So if there are a total of 12 monster sets,
3*12*8 is a total pool of ‭288, reduction for trait = 281; 1/281‬ (0.36%), or 281:1 against.

Where did you read the probability of each item. Just because there are a number of items to drop dont mean they all drop at the same probability. You are just equally diving the probability amount the items evenly. But I cant see anything that confirms all items have same drop rate. I just see evasions saying that all item have the same drop rate.

If I had a basket that i put apples and bananas in. Would you assume that I have the same amount of each it it? Is there nothing stopping me putting more apples in than bananas?

Yes, his maths is flawed. Crown crates don't drop Apex Mounts at the same rate as potions, to give an ESO example.

mairwen85

AusDingo wrote: »

mairwen85 wrote: »

On a 5 key purchase, IDK is correct you have a chance of 1:3 weight, 1:2 set, 1:8 trait, which would be a pool of 48 possible outcomes (3*2*8 = 48 ), or 1/48 chance, but since trait doesn't matter on the weight you want due to the option of transmutation we can condense the 8 traits for our ideal weight to 1 (reduce pool by 7) but have to keep the traits for the other weights in the pool as we can't assume any usefulness of transmutation on pieces we don't want. So the odds are: 1/41 (2.4%), or 41:1 against

On a single key purchase the math stays the same but the pool is larger. So if there are a total of 12 monster sets,
3*12*8 is a total pool of ‭288, reduction for trait = 281; 1/281‬ (0.36%), or 281:1 against.

Where did you read the probability of each item. Just because there are a number of items to drop dont mean they all drop at the same probability. You are just equally diving the probability amount the items evenly. But I cant see anything that confirms all items have same drop rate. I just see evasions saying that all item have the same drop rate.

If I had a basket that i put apples and bananas in. Would you assume that I have the same amount of each it it? Is there nothing stopping me putting more apples in than bananas?

Because we don't know how each event is weighted specifically in the loot table, we can only assume they are all equal. As for apex mounts vs potions detail that a previous poster threw into the mix, we are told this ahead of time in various sources that they have a different probability because of the monetisation and intrinsic consumer value, although the actual probability is still obscured. There is no such source of information regarding set pieces from the pledge givers, is it safe to assume? Possibly not, but it's information we don't have.

terrordactyl1971 wrote: »

Yes, his maths is flawed. Crown crates don't drop Apex Mounts at the same rate as potions, to give an ESO example.

No, her maths is sound given the information provided and your argument is flawed as it references and entirely different scope of concern, as an ESO example.

I wonder if @ZOS_GinaBruno could shed some light as to whether the community should know if all set pieces and weights and traits are weighted equally in the loot table? It would be handy to know.

FierceSam

ShawnLaRock wrote: »

The probability is low enough, that I wait until a particular Monster Shoulder pops up at The Golden.

Getting the Helm - even with having to buy the specific Dungeon DLC; learn the Vet mechanics; and possibly get a weight trade from another player - STILL seems easier & more efficient for me... than wasting keys on crap shoulder RNG from the Undaunted chests.

S.

Thing is, there is almost nothing else to spend your Undaunted keys on... so they’re not exactly being wasted. In fact they’re more wasted if you never use them..

Varana

mairwen85 wrote: »

Because we don't know how each event is weighted specifically in the loot table, we can only assume they are all equal.

In fact, I'd like to see some actual evidence suggesting that they have different probabilities before assuming non-equal randomness. Contrary to apex mounts and potions, there is no intrinsic motivation for ZOS to weigh monster sets differently. Sure, some are more popular than others, but that is very dependent on character and build, and changes with time. ZOS also have no monetary reason here.

Unless they did it the anecdotal Maelstrom way and change it depending on the character you use.

mairwen85

Varana wrote: »

mairwen85 wrote: »

Because we don't know how each event is weighted specifically in the loot table, we can only assume they are all equal.

In fact, I'd like to see some actual evidence suggesting that they have different probabilities before assuming non-equal randomness. Contrary to apex mounts and potions, there is no intrinsic motivation for ZOS to weigh monster sets differently. Sure, some are more popular than others, but that is very dependent on character and build, and changes with time. ZOS also have no monetary reason here.

Unless they did it the anecdotal Maelstrom way and change it depending on the character you use.

Oh, I agree totally. As I said, for crown crates we are informed that the contents are weighted differently, no such information for monster shoulders. Until someone takes a record of a large sample size there is no evidence to base any assumption off other than equal weighting.

tomofhyrule

I know the feeling.

I feel like I've got terrible luck with RNG, but especially here. I think I've bought 6 or 7 IC coffers from Urgarlag to get a Lord Warden Pauldron, but so far I've only one of the shoulders so far was the Warden set and not a single one out of the whole bunch was heavy. But I did get about 4 Molag Kena arm cops...which I don't need at all...

I'm pretty sure that it's equally likely to get everything, I just have terrible RNG. Even flipping a coin could give heads 5/5 times. Unlikely, but completely possible.

stefan.gustavsonb16_ESO

mairwen85 wrote: »

On a 5 key purchase, IDK is correct you have a chance of 1:3 weight, 1:2 set, 1:8 trait, which would be a pool of 48 possible outcomes (3*2*8 = 48 ), or 1/48 chance, but since trait doesn't matter on the weight you want due to the option of transmutation we can condense the 8 traits for our ideal weight to 1 (reduce pool by 7) but have to keep the traits for the other weights in the pool as we can't assume any usefulness of transmutation on pieces we don't want. So the odds are: 1/41 (2.4%), or 41:1 against

On a single key purchase the math stays the same but the pool is larger. So if there are a total of 12 monster sets,
3*12*8 is a total pool of ‭288, reduction for trait = 281; 1/281‬ (0.36%), or 281:1 against.

No. Nononono. Please. Ouch. That's not how you do it. For 5 keys a pool of 48, yes, BUT if traits are not important, 8 of the outcomes are fine, so 8/48=1/6, NOT 1/41. For 1 key a pool of 288, but again, 8/288=1/36, NOT 1/281.