Something fishy (clammy?) going on here...

krachall

I tend to keep mental track of RNG success in easily measurable activities -- chest looting, nirn farming, etc. Last night, I found myself short of Powdered Pearl and decided to do a few farming laps in Summerset. It was fairly late at night so I figured I'd find a lot of clams -- which I did. I typically get a powdered pearl every 12ish clams. I've never gotten two in a row.

So I start my usual lap and I'm not getting any pearl. In fact, I get to 31 clams opened without a pearl and I post in guild chat "31 clams with no pearls! not my night." On my very next clam, I finally get a pearl. And my next one. And my next one. I keep going and end up getting 11 pearls in my next 20 clams. The "switch was flipped" right before midnight EST.

Conspiracy theory 1: There is a limit to how many clams can drop worldwide in a day and the timer reset at 11:30 or so.
Conspiracy theory 2: The Hunger Games-like control tower that is tasked to ensure I have no luck monitored my guild message and realized they went to far. They turned my luck dial up a bunch.
Conspiracy theory 3: ZOS noticed their RNG was broken again and restarted it.

(truth: RNG's are finicky and frustrating)

ghastley

You clearly hit the point at which RNG keeps tempting you to farm beyond your normal tolerance. Most people stop after three in a row, not tempting their luck. You have revealed persistence, and the RNG algorithm will have taken note!

January1171

I go with conspiracy theory 2. When I was grinding master angler, I would seem to (on multiple occasions) get the fish I needed within five minutes of venting in chat about it not dropping

WildRaptorX

Wish I had your luck. Got the recipe last week and I’ve only got 3 pearls.

Kahnak

I'm going to test this theory by complaining in zone that my '1 million gold' refuses to drop for me. Wish me luck~

Donny_Vito

Conspiracy #4: There really are no pearls and it's all in your mind.

Cundu_Ertur

Donny_Vito wrote: »

Conspiracy #4: There really are no pearls and it's all in your mind.

That's spoons. There's pearls.

Linaleah

theory 2 seems to work for me disturbingly often. the moment I get to the point of frustration where I start venting in guild chat about rng being particularly cruel... it lets of and takes pity on me. with one notable exception. skooma bubbler recipe. UGH. (still don't have it)

but seriously though rng is.. not kind and never was

virtus753

Can I borrow you for a few minutes, OP? I’d like to take a little tour of Craglorn...

Sylvermynx

January1171 wrote: »

I go with conspiracy theory 2. When I was grinding master angler, I would seem to (on multiple occasions) get the fish I needed within five minutes of venting in chat about it not dropping

Truth! I would whine to husband about the damn foul water blue fish not dropping for three days, and I'd have it in under an hour.

shimm

I’m pretty sure from repeatedly farming in Summerset that powdered mother of pearl has the lowest drop rate of any item in ESO.

Sylvermynx

shimm wrote: »

I’m pretty sure from repeatedly farming in Summerset that powdered mother of pearl has the lowest drop rate of any item in ESO.

After the anniversary 5 week crafting marathon last year, I wound up with 200 on each of my accounts. I've got enough for forever I think.

Nanfoodle

If you have a 20% drop rate on something, most people think if you open 5 of them, that means you will get at least one. That's not how it works. Every time it's the same 20% chance. That means sometimes it takes a tone of RNG to get the item you want and sometimes you get what you want 11 times in a row. Your odds are the same every roll of the dice.

krachall

Nanfoodle wrote: »

If you have a 20% drop rate on something, most people think if you open 5 of them, that means you will get at least one. That's not how it works. Every time it's the same 20% chance. That means sometimes it takes a tone of RNG to get the item you want and sometimes you get what you want 11 times in a row. Your odds are the same every roll of the dice.

You’re talking about the Gambler’s Fallacy. That’s not actually applicable here. In your 20% example, opening 5 clans DOES mean you should get a pearl. Not WILL get but should get. If the odds are 20% and you have enough samples and are not getting 1 in 5, you can demonstrate with any confidence level you want that the results are indeed not random.

BisDasBlutGefriert

Rng has been like this for me lately:

2hrs or more of grinding mats...nothing worth noting.

Then...

Best friend says, "hey babe, can you please come help me for a few minutes"

I say, "yeah definitely, just finishing up this run. I'll be there in a minute"

59 seconds later... a gold mat finally appears, then a white, then a purple, then a white, then another purple....

So I quietly keep going till I'm asked to come help a second time haha!

Sylvermynx

I'd been seeing your name @BisDasBlutGefriert - and wondering what it meant. So I asked google to translate. It gave me "until the blood freezes". Is that approximately correct? Way beyond the little bit of German I get....

starkerealm

Cundu_Ertur wrote: »

Donny_Vito wrote: »

Conspiracy #4: There really are no pearls and it's all in your mind.

That's spoons. There's pearls.

There are no pearls and it's all in your spoon. That's not right. No, wait, I get it. There are no minds and it's all in your spoon.

Nanfoodle

krachall wrote: »

Nanfoodle wrote: »

If you have a 20% drop rate on something, most people think if you open 5 of them, that means you will get at least one. That's not how it works. Every time it's the same 20% chance. That means sometimes it takes a tone of RNG to get the item you want and sometimes you get what you want 11 times in a row. Your odds are the same every roll of the dice.

You’re talking about the Gambler’s Fallacy. That’s not actually applicable here. In your 20% example, opening 5 clans DOES mean you should get a pearl. Not WILL get but should get. If the odds are 20% and you have enough samples and are not getting 1 in 5, you can demonstrate with any confidence level you want that the results are indeed not random.

No its math look it up.

January1171

Sylvermynx wrote: »

shimm wrote: »

I’m pretty sure from repeatedly farming in Summerset that powdered mother of pearl has the lowest drop rate of any item in ESO.

After the anniversary 5 week crafting marathon last year, I wound up with 200 on each of my accounts. I've got enough for forever I think.

that reminds me I need to get my crafting toons set up

January1171

krachall wrote: »

Nanfoodle wrote: »

If you have a 20% drop rate on something, most people think if you open 5 of them, that means you will get at least one. That's not how it works. Every time it's the same 20% chance. That means sometimes it takes a tone of RNG to get the item you want and sometimes you get what you want 11 times in a row. Your odds are the same every roll of the dice.

You’re talking about the Gambler’s Fallacy. That’s not actually applicable here. In your 20% example, opening 5 clans DOES mean you should get a pearl. Not WILL get but should get. If the odds are 20% and you have enough samples and are not getting 1 in 5, you can demonstrate with any confidence level you want that the results are indeed not random.

Sounds like you're both talking about the same thing- 20% chance on each one means sometimes it takes a while, but over time the odds even out.


Clam 1 no pearl
Clam 2 no pearl
Clam 3 no pearl
Clam 4 no pearl
Clam 5 no pearl
Clam 6 no pearl
Clam 7 no pearl
Clam 8 no pearl
Clam 9 pearl
Clam 10 pearl

If you were going off even the first 8, it looks very skewed to "no pearl", if you were looking at the last two it looks very skewed to "pearl" but take all of it together and you get a 1 in 5 chance, because that's what you should be getting.

As players with limited time and sample sizes, it can be hard to accumulate a large enough sample size to truly see what everything balances out at.

LanteanPegasus

Sylvermynx wrote: »

I'd been seeing your name @BisDasBlutGefriert - and wondering what it meant. So I asked google to translate. It gave me "until the blood freezes". Is that approximately correct? Way beyond the little bit of German I get....

That's the correct translation. (Hope you don't mind me answering, but I'm German , so I thought I'd confirm while I'm here. )

Sylvermynx

LanteanPegasus wrote: »

Sylvermynx wrote: »

I'd been seeing your name @BisDasBlutGefriert - and wondering what it meant. So I asked google to translate. It gave me "until the blood freezes". Is that approximately correct? Way beyond the little bit of German I get....

That's the correct translation. (Hope you don't mind me answering, but I'm German , so I thought I'd confirm while I'm here. )

Thank you! I don't always trust google.... and I couldn't get hold of my German-speaking granddaughter just then.... I have to do stuff when I think about it, 'cause aging mind cells you know....

BisDasBlutGefriert

Thanks for answering @LanteanPegasus !! Funny thing is that I wrote it fast and auto correct went to "gefriert". Whereas I meant it to say "gefreirt". Haha!! Totally different meaning.

starkerealm

January1171 wrote: »

As players with limited time and sample sizes, it can be hard to accumulate a large enough sample size to truly see what everything balances out at.

This is especially true when you start looking at things with extremely low drop rates. You'll frequently see sample sizes where the margin for error is greater than the drop chance.

Pauls

Many ignorant players just pick pearls and leave rest, so node dont respawn. Same with chests and all other nodes, including thieve troves and psijic portals.

Sylvermynx

Pauls wrote: »

Many ignorant players just pick pearls and leave rest, so node dont respawn. Same with chests and all other nodes, including thieve troves and psijic portals.

Oh so true, and so VERY annoying.

HjorrMundGandr

I too have experienced the OP situation. I run with harvest map and minimap to aid in the run so I don't miss a clam. And I have noticed paying attention to the mini-map in-game timer of the day. You know the actual time it should be in Tamriel.
coincidence maybe, but at around 11pm-1am ingame tamriel time, more powdered pearl than ever before. At times I have gotten 8 pearl in a row.

snoozy

from the thread title i thought this was about the iceheart nerf... appears it isn't, but anyway

#SaveIceheart

Geekgirl

Conversely, I have been searching for Clam Gall. I have 12 of those, which is what I want, and 120+ of Powdered Mother of Pearl, which I am not looking for. With the RNG Jebuz, your mileage may vary.

Geekgirl

Sylvermynx wrote: »

Pauls wrote: »

Many ignorant players just pick pearls and leave rest, so node dont respawn. Same with chests and all other nodes, including thieve troves and psijic portals.

Oh so true, and so VERY annoying.

It is annoying as heck, but players without ESO+ argue that the junk takes up too much room (and I can sympathize) and I will use that fish and those worms, so it washes out.

Danikat

krachall wrote: »

Nanfoodle wrote: »

If you have a 20% drop rate on something, most people think if you open 5 of them, that means you will get at least one. That's not how it works. Every time it's the same 20% chance. That means sometimes it takes a tone of RNG to get the item you want and sometimes you get what you want 11 times in a row. Your odds are the same every roll of the dice.

You’re talking about the Gambler’s Fallacy. That’s not actually applicable here. In your 20% example, opening 5 clans DOES mean you should get a pearl. Not WILL get but should get. If the odds are 20% and you have enough samples and are not getting 1 in 5, you can demonstrate with any confidence level you want that the results are indeed not random.

Key point there is "if you have enough samples". That's the difference between how probability actually works and how some people expect it to work. The second group of people would see the example above of opening 10 clams and getting peals from the 9th and 10th as proof of a broken system because there wasn't one in each 'set' of 5. These are the people who are furious that they'd been told there's a 1 in 10 chance of getting something from the crown crates so they bought 10 crates to get one and didn't get it.

I think you both understand it, it's just a hard thing to explain to someone else, even someone who already gets it.