O.o

WildRaptorX

Dang. Feel guilty

Does anyone know the percent chance of getting these radiant rewards? My boyfriend doesn’t understand how rare this is and I want to explain

therift

GO BUY LOTTERY TICKETS IMMEDIATELY

While Lady Luck still loves you

Turelus

*grumbles*

The number of these I have opened and still not had either the mount of the pet.

Congrats, ride that with pride because it's one of the rarer ones in ESO.

yodased

Radiants from purchased crates are .0025% or lower depending on your data source.

Not enough data to determine odds of that radiant but i would easily put it at 1:1000000

Elwendryll

You're looking at some 0.32% chance here.
https://www.crowncrates.com/ouroboros

WildRaptorX

@Turelus I feel so cheeky because it was from the free crates

Unij

Droprate can be seen at https://www.crowncrates.com/ouroboros

It's 0,32%

JamieAubrey

I've still go to get a better one than my Purple Psijic Horse

12k crowns to spend but only buy 4 crates every new season

Fivefivesix

Thats cool. I got the dragonscale lightning wolf last week which Ive only seen one other person have it since Ive got mine. I would say % chance is very low espeically for what he got.

Elwendryll

Keylun wrote: »

@Turelus I feel so cheeky because it was from the free crates

I mean, isn't the senche of scarlet regret exclusive to Ouroboros crates, which are all free, from twitch drops?

sedi

I heard it’s something like 1 in 800 crates but can’t give you anything concrete. It’s basically so rare people spend literally thousands in real money trying to get one and some still don’t! What you got is also one of the most sought after ones so you are super lucky. Enjoy your lovely mount 😊

StolenEyes

I have opened god knows how many crates and only received two, the Scorching Horse-Lizard (which is ok) and the Cold-Flame Atronach Wolf (which I love). I know the percentage chance of getting one of these mounts is very very low, but thinking about it just makes my head hurt. 😉

Congrats on your new Senche; I collect the cat mounts so I’m well jealous 😊👍

Turelus

Elwendryll wrote: »

Keylun wrote: »

Turelus I feel so cheeky because it was from the free crates

I mean, isn't the senche of scarlet regret exclusive to Ouroboros crates, which are all free, from twitch drops?

It is. There is no monetary investment for this pet, just watching every Twitch stream you can where drops are enabled.

yodased

While I applaud the creator of that site and add-on there is no statistical relevence to those numbers presented. No one has any idea how many crates have been sent and opened so you are operating with false basis

daemonios

Keylun wrote: »

Dang. Feel guilty

Does anyone know the percent chance of getting these radiant rewards? My boyfriend doesn’t understand how rare this is and I want to explain

Try this:

Honey, check it out! Someone gifted me something that cost them very little to develop and literally nothing to produce but I like it because it's shiny and few people have it.

JamieAubrey

Keylun wrote: »

@Turelus I feel so cheeky because it was from the free crates

So was my radiant mount xD

Turelus

yodased wrote: »

While I applaud the creator of that site and add-on there is no statistical relevence to those numbers presented. No one has any idea how many crates have been sent and opened so you are operating with false basis

I believe if you check the raw data on the Google Doc it tells you the number of submissions, which come via an add-on.

These are not "true" drop rates, however they're as close as we're going to get to knowing the rates, and it's more information than ZOS is willing to share with us.

deadsheepb14_ESO

yodased wrote: »

While I applaud the creator of that site and add-on there is no statistical relevence to those numbers presented. No one has any idea how many crates have been sent and opened so you are operating with false basis

It says on that page 22,325 Ouroboros crates.

WildRaptorX

Thanks for the clarification guys

yodased

deadsheepb14_ESO wrote: »

yodased wrote: »

While I applaud the creator of that site and add-on there is no statistical relevence to those numbers presented. No one has any idea how many crates have been sent and opened so you are operating with false basis

It says on that page 22,325 Ouroboros crates.

Yeah but 22,325 out of X. X is the total number of crates opened, which would not include Y which is the amount of crates sent in total.

So we are takong Z which is a segment of X which doesnt reflect Y and we are dropping % on that.

Sure segments can work if you know the variables the segment comes from, but we don't.

Again i applaud the effort it's really well done and they exposed information needed for discourse, but it's not accurate data.

Turelus

yodased wrote: »

Again i applaud the effort it's really well done and they exposed information needed for discourse, but it's not accurate data.

Has anyone ever claimed it accurate data? Most of us just state the rate on the site and say "it's X rate according to this site" without saying if it is or isn't accurate. I know it's not true data, but I can't be bother to add a clause to every single post I make showing someone the known rates as most people don't care enough, they're just happy to see some idea of the rates.

Also I would say whilst we're talking about the site, if you can afford a buck or two a month go become a patron and help out with hosting costs or just reward the invested time.

VDoom1

Congratulations! The percentage is around 1%. Even if you open 100 crates RNG can still mess with you. So consider yourself lucky!

Crowncrates.com is an awesome site with helpful information. For one, the mount only seems to drop from bonus cards.
https://crowncrates.com/ouroboros

I got the pet like 2 months ago or so. The mount will be mine...one day.

anitajoneb17_ESO

yodased wrote: »

Yeah but 22,325 out of X. X is the total number of crates opened, which would not include Y which is the amount of crates sent in total.

So we are takong Z which is a segment of X which doesnt reflect Y and we are dropping % on that.

Sure segments can work if you know the variables the segment comes from, but we don't.

Again i applaud the effort it's really well done and they exposed information needed for discourse, but it's not accurate data.

That doesn't matter.
As long as your sample is big enough to be statistically relevant, the size of the general population doesn't matter.

I mean, if all crates have equal chances to drop something, (which is true), then if you have 1000 crates in your sample, (that's big enough to be statistically valid), then your results are valid whether the total number of crates distributed is 100K crates, 1 million or 1 zillion. The drop rate calculated from your sample will still be the same and valid.

yodased

anitajoneb17_ESO wrote: »

yodased wrote: »

Yeah but 22,325 out of X. X is the total number of crates opened, which would not include Y which is the amount of crates sent in total.

So we are takong Z which is a segment of X which doesnt reflect Y and we are dropping % on that.

Sure segments can work if you know the variables the segment comes from, but we don't.

Again i applaud the effort it's really well done and they exposed information needed for discourse, but it's not accurate data.

That doesn't matter.
As long as your sample is big enough to be statistically relevant, the size of the general population doesn't matter.

I mean, if all crates have equal chances to drop something, (which is true), then if you have 1000 crates in your sample, (that's big enough to be statistically valid), then your results are valid whether the total number of crates distributed is 100K crates, 1 million or 1 zillion. The drop rate calculated from your sample will still be the same and valid.

We don't know if all crates are weighted the same. We don't know how many were sent vs open and that affects chances. Are drop tables accessed when opened or when sent.

If you know what the segment comes from yes absolutely statistically relevant samples are perfect for %, but we don't.

albesca

Turelus wrote: »

*grumbles*

The number of these I have opened and still not had either the mount of the pet.

Congrats, ride that with pride because it's one of the rarer ones in ESO.

Well, I have the pet on the NA server, which has a single character I made for the Summerfall event and never used again...

Turelus

albesca wrote: »

Turelus wrote: »

*grumbles*

The number of these I have opened and still not had either the mount of the pet.

Congrats, ride that with pride because it's one of the rarer ones in ESO.

Well, I have the pet on the NA server, which has a single character I made for the Summerfall event and never used again...

This is the exact reason I didn't touch my crates on the NA server.

LadySinflower

I once got the Silken Ring gold motif book from a free crate. The last crate I opened (also free) gave me the Alinor ringtail cat pet. So I'm sure I'll get zip from today's crates. Congrats to people who got good stuff!