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Mundus Damage Calculations - Shadow vs Lover (Stamina) and Shadow vs Thief (Magicka)
susmitds
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Greetings,
So we have another new Mundus option for PvE DPS back in the fray, with the recent change in the PTS.
The real question now is how it stacks against the current meta Mundus, Lover and Thief. Fear not, your questions are going to be answered here. Warning, calculations ahead. Approach with caution. Skip, you just want to know the answer. Note, I am doing the test considering the Nightblade class, who has higher critical hit damage which decreases the contribution of Shadow, but also higher critical hit chance which increases the contribution of Shadow, so the results will even out for most other classes.
Let X = Minimum Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Lover. For greater values, Shadow will become stronger than Lover.
Taking Current Critical Hit Damage = 1.50 (Base) + 0.1 (Class Passive) + 0.1 (Minor Force - 100% uptime) + 0.19 (CP) + 0.06 (Major Force - 40% uptime of 0.15) = 1.95
Critical Hit Damage with Shadow = 1.95+0.19=2.14
So, the equation below will give us the sweet spot, when Shadow will beat Lover.
The equation gives us our required Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Lover to be 73.31%.
Now, Stamina DPS get a good amount of their DPS from Relequen and Monster sets, none of which can critically hit. This varies from parse to parse.
There are two ways in which this issue can be solved.
I. Taking the effects of Set-based Damage into Consideration.
Let's take 90% of the DPS affectable by Critical Hit Chance.
Then X = 73.31%*100/90 = 81.5% (Note, the situation is not truly linear in nature, but this is the closest possible approximation.)
At around 82% Critical Hit Chance, Shadow will beat Lover. Higher average Critical Hit Damage by CP or higher Major Force Uptime will increase the required Critical Hit Chance. Bloodthirsty and Execute skills which significantly increase base crittable DPS will decrease the required Critical Hit Chance.
II. Penetrating Completely without Lover, making Lover useless
If we get to 18240 penetration, then Lover becomes useless anyways, so no need for approximation. Any combination of Twice-Fanged Serpent, Kra'gh Set, Sharpened off-hand weapon and CP will let us do this. As long as we retain a Minimum Critical Hit Chance of 70% somehow (Slightly lesser than the previously calculate Value as we are no longer actively comparing Shadow with Lover, as Lover is already fully Compensated), replacing Advancing Yokeda with Twice-Fanged Serpent, we will have higher DPS with this penetration gear and Shadow than with the usual crit gear and Lover.
Let X = Minimum Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Thief. For greater values, Shadow will become stronger than Thief.
Taking Current Critical Hit Damage = 1.50 (Base) + 0.1 (Class Passive) + 0.1 (Minor Force - 100% uptime) + 0.19 (CP) + 0.06 (Major Force - 40% uptime of 0.15) = 1.95
Critical Hit Damage with Shadow = 1.95+0.19=2.14
So, the equation below will give us the sweet spot, when Shadow will beat Thief.
The equation gives us our required Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Thief to be 54%.
The Thief is also a crit-based Mundus, so we don't have to worry about uncrittable part of the damage, which is already very low for magicka DPS. However, there are other factors, which will be at play here. For Thief to be a meta choice of DPS in the first place, 18240 needs to be reachable, which will still need high debuff uptime and CP, which can be avoided with lover. Also, at just around 50% Critical Hit Chance, the variance of Critical Dependency is at it's highest, making Shadow a very unreliable choice at this part of the spectrum. Apprentice will generally give more stable and higher DPS increase than Shadow at this point. For Shadow to actually shine in real fights, 65% Critical Hit Chance is real Minimum Critical Hit Chance to be the BiS Mundus, as then we will get two-thirds of our abilities to critically hit.
So ultimately the answer we really need is Shadow better than Lower and Thief?
The Answer is no for most cases, as the required Critical Hit Chance on both sides is higher than what most races will consistently have, without giving up even more DPS somewhere else. Shadow is a Dynamic Damage Modifier with innate Variance and introduces more Variance than Thief, due to its higher numerical value. You will need around 5% more Critical Hit Chance than the Minimum Critical Hit Chance to see around 1% more DPS than Lover for Stamina DPS, and even more for Thief on the Magicka side, as Critical Hit Chance is generally lesser compared to Stamina builds. Also, keep in mind, the value of Shadow falls steadily as your Critical Hit Damage increase with higher Major Force uptimes and CP placement. Ideally, to get good results with Shadow, we need to allocate lesser CP stars into Critical Damage and more into raw damage and penetration.
The only exception here is the Khajiit race, which actually fulfills the conditions for both the Stamina DPS side and the Magicka DPS side with around 3-7% surplus Critical Hit Chance on both Cases. Shadow-using Khajiit should see around 0.5-1.5% more DPS than Lover or Thief at the price of even higher Variance on top of their already high Variance.
Will this make Khajiit the go-to DPS race?
The answer is probably no, as the flattening of raw resource stats will have even higher affect on DPS this time around, almost back to what we have in live, depending on what your final stats are. The Final stats will probably be further affected by Warhorn Stat Boost, which has very uptime in raids, meaning Races with 2K primary resource stats, will double-dip in resource gains, nullifying the Khajiit's Warhorn advantage during the much lesser Major Force Uptime.
Khajiit will gain around 600 more DPS at 60K DPS range. The answer to this question depends on how much the flattening of stats increase the DPS of other races. On the stamina side, it is almost confirmed that Orc and Dunmer will have more DPS, as previous time, without even the Warhorn Double-dipping advantage they outparsed Khajiit on StamNB and StamDK. With the massive boost to their stamina, especially, they should have comparable but higher DPS than Khajiit. This can be put to the test once the PTS is online.
Edited by susmitds on February 6, 2019 9:34PM So we have another new Mundus option for PvE DPS back in the fray, with the recent change in the PTS.
Shadow Mundus: Increased the Critical Hit Damage bonus to 13% from 9%. Note that this still will not affect critical healing.
The real question now is how it stacks against the current meta Mundus, Lover and Thief. Fear not, your questions are going to be answered here. Warning, calculations ahead. Approach with caution. Skip, you just want to know the answer. Note, I am doing the test considering the Nightblade class, who has higher critical hit damage which decreases the contribution of Shadow, but also higher critical hit chance which increases the contribution of Shadow, so the results will even out for most other classes.
Shadow vs Lover (Stamina)
Let X = Minimum Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Lover. For greater values, Shadow will become stronger than Lover.
Taking Current Critical Hit Damage = 1.50 (Base) + 0.1 (Class Passive) + 0.1 (Minor Force - 100% uptime) + 0.19 (CP) + 0.06 (Major Force - 40% uptime of 0.15) = 1.95
Critical Hit Damage with Shadow = 1.95+0.19=2.14
So, the equation below will give us the sweet spot, when Shadow will beat Lover.
The equation gives us our required Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Lover to be 73.31%.
Now, Stamina DPS get a good amount of their DPS from Relequen and Monster sets, none of which can critically hit. This varies from parse to parse.
There are two ways in which this issue can be solved.
I. Taking the effects of Set-based Damage into Consideration.
Let's take 90% of the DPS affectable by Critical Hit Chance.
Then X = 73.31%*100/90 = 81.5% (Note, the situation is not truly linear in nature, but this is the closest possible approximation.)
At around 82% Critical Hit Chance, Shadow will beat Lover. Higher average Critical Hit Damage by CP or higher Major Force Uptime will increase the required Critical Hit Chance. Bloodthirsty and Execute skills which significantly increase base crittable DPS will decrease the required Critical Hit Chance.
II. Penetrating Completely without Lover, making Lover useless
If we get to 18240 penetration, then Lover becomes useless anyways, so no need for approximation. Any combination of Twice-Fanged Serpent, Kra'gh Set, Sharpened off-hand weapon and CP will let us do this. As long as we retain a Minimum Critical Hit Chance of 70% somehow (Slightly lesser than the previously calculate Value as we are no longer actively comparing Shadow with Lover, as Lover is already fully Compensated), replacing Advancing Yokeda with Twice-Fanged Serpent, we will have higher DPS with this penetration gear and Shadow than with the usual crit gear and Lover.
Shadow vs Thief (Magicka)
Let X = Minimum Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Thief. For greater values, Shadow will become stronger than Thief.
Taking Current Critical Hit Damage = 1.50 (Base) + 0.1 (Class Passive) + 0.1 (Minor Force - 100% uptime) + 0.19 (CP) + 0.06 (Major Force - 40% uptime of 0.15) = 1.95
Critical Hit Damage with Shadow = 1.95+0.19=2.14
So, the equation below will give us the sweet spot, when Shadow will beat Thief.
The equation gives us our required Critical Hit Chance required for Shadow to at least equal Thief to be 54%.
The Thief is also a crit-based Mundus, so we don't have to worry about uncrittable part of the damage, which is already very low for magicka DPS. However, there are other factors, which will be at play here. For Thief to be a meta choice of DPS in the first place, 18240 needs to be reachable, which will still need high debuff uptime and CP, which can be avoided with lover. Also, at just around 50% Critical Hit Chance, the variance of Critical Dependency is at it's highest, making Shadow a very unreliable choice at this part of the spectrum. Apprentice will generally give more stable and higher DPS increase than Shadow at this point. For Shadow to actually shine in real fights, 65% Critical Hit Chance is real Minimum Critical Hit Chance to be the BiS Mundus, as then we will get two-thirds of our abilities to critically hit.
Results and Implications on DPS
So ultimately the answer we really need is Shadow better than Lower and Thief?
The Answer is no for most cases, as the required Critical Hit Chance on both sides is higher than what most races will consistently have, without giving up even more DPS somewhere else. Shadow is a Dynamic Damage Modifier with innate Variance and introduces more Variance than Thief, due to its higher numerical value. You will need around 5% more Critical Hit Chance than the Minimum Critical Hit Chance to see around 1% more DPS than Lover for Stamina DPS, and even more for Thief on the Magicka side, as Critical Hit Chance is generally lesser compared to Stamina builds. Also, keep in mind, the value of Shadow falls steadily as your Critical Hit Damage increase with higher Major Force uptimes and CP placement. Ideally, to get good results with Shadow, we need to allocate lesser CP stars into Critical Damage and more into raw damage and penetration.
The only exception here is the Khajiit race, which actually fulfills the conditions for both the Stamina DPS side and the Magicka DPS side with around 3-7% surplus Critical Hit Chance on both Cases. Shadow-using Khajiit should see around 0.5-1.5% more DPS than Lover or Thief at the price of even higher Variance on top of their already high Variance.
Will this make Khajiit the go-to DPS race?
The answer is probably no, as the flattening of raw resource stats will have even higher affect on DPS this time around, almost back to what we have in live, depending on what your final stats are. The Final stats will probably be further affected by Warhorn Stat Boost, which has very uptime in raids, meaning Races with 2K primary resource stats, will double-dip in resource gains, nullifying the Khajiit's Warhorn advantage during the much lesser Major Force Uptime.
Khajiit will gain around 600 more DPS at 60K DPS range. The answer to this question depends on how much the flattening of stats increase the DPS of other races. On the stamina side, it is almost confirmed that Orc and Dunmer will have more DPS, as previous time, without even the Warhorn Double-dipping advantage they outparsed Khajiit on StamNB and StamDK. With the massive boost to their stamina, especially, they should have comparable but higher DPS than Khajiit. This can be put to the test once the PTS is online.
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templesus✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Waiting for PTS to come online to test myself. Thanks for the write up though, always good to see some preliminary findings and have calculated results before experimental.2 -
Siohwenoeht✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Definitely good stuff to look for. As a console pleb
I always appreciate the work you pts folks do! "It is a lovely language, but it takes a very long time saying anything in it, because we do not say anything in it, unless it is worth taking a long time to say, and to listen to." - Treebeard1 -
ArchMikem✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭I'm sorry but I failed three Math classes in a row back in school so when I saw Math here my eyes just glazed over. I'll just take your word for it.CP2,100 Master Explorer - AvA One Star General - Console Peasant - Khajiiti Aficionado - The Clan
Quest Objective: OMG Go Talk To That Kitty!12 -
theyancey✭✭✭✭✭
✭That is all fine and well but my big question is how any of this will work on a DPS magden after the coming nerfs. Mine withstood the nerfing of the bird and of the bear. I don't know of she can survive the coming attack on her central being though. What do your formulas suggest for mundus for that?0 -
Azyle1✭✭✭✭✭So... really, people are not going to use shadow then, eh? Gonna keep it how it is? I can live with that.0 -
I'm full of appreciation to susmitds and every player with such proffesional approach with testing stuff like that.
It was a great lecture, thanks a lot.<PC EU>
Press "F" to pay respect to our fallen megalulserver.1 -
Kuramas9tails✭✭✭✭✭
✭I hate math so thank you for doing that. I only scrolled down to the answer.Your friendly neighborhood crazy cat lady of ESO
New PSN name: SundariTheLast. Proud seller in RedEye Empire, PURPLE GANG and Backalley Trading.
AD High Elf Mageblade DPS (General)(Former Empress) -- Stormproof/VMOL, VHOF, VDSA completion
AD Khajiit Mageblade DPS -- Flawless Conquerer
FOR THE QUEEN!
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susmitds✭✭✭✭✭
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@Azyle1So... really, people are not going to use shadow then, eh? Gonna keep it how it is? I can live with that.
It is not going much of a game changer in PvE, unless at least the precise TBS meta returns (which is a very good possibility for Magicka Chars, IMO, will test).
However, at one point of time, for Burst based builds, gankers and glass cannons in PvP, Shadow was the strongest Mundus by a long shot. I believe it will return to its previous glory in that respect, without just the healing output, which is already very high in this meta. It will the BiS Khajiit Mundus in PvP, as even with zero divines, Shadow nullifies almost 4 impen trait pieces, which is a huge problem solver for Khajiit, given the Khajiit primary issue in PvP is the decrease in crit output.Edited by susmitds on February 6, 2019 1:58PM2 -
Lightspeedflashb14_ESO✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Edited by Lightspeedflashb14_ESO on February 6, 2019 2:22PM3 -
nsmurfer✭✭✭✭✭Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »
I used fextralife. It still says 12%0 -
Ajax_22✭✭✭✭✭Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »
I used fextralife. It still says 12%
Unofficial Elder Scrolls Pages is the most reliable source of information on not only ESO, but all Elder Scrolls games.0 -
susmitds✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »
I used fextralife. It still says 12%
Fextralife is not exactly reliable as all pages are not properly updated, some lagging behind for years like this one.0
