Juju_beans wrote: »Oh my..I only have 1 crafter that learns everything. All my alts only learned the blue motifs.
I can't imagine having to collect everything on more than 1 character.
mike_skleinub17_ESO wrote: »I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e
The way they word it on the announcement page seems to agree with that. "Rarer rewards include hard-to-get motif pages previously only available in Vvardenfell, the Horns of the Reach dungeons, and the Clockwork City. Even rarer, you could receive a motif page for the brand-new Worm Cult style, a look that can only be found in the Anniversary Gift Boxes! " rather than "which could be the ever rarer.."Interesting thing I noted, was that sometimes when I got the Worm Cult motif, I also got another rare item, usually another motif. So, it seems that the Worm Cult motif is on it's own drop chance, separate from the chance to get a rare item.
mike_skleinub17_ESO wrote: »I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e
Did you have the writs "banked" on those characters? As in, did you pick them up awhile ago and sit on them to turn in during the event?
I made the mistake of picking up writs and staging my alts at the turn in locations on Sunday Night. The problem became the writs that are on 3-day rotations (blacksmithing, clothing, woodworking, provisioning, and enchanting) were unable to be repeated on Wednesday because they were technically the same writ. The game logged my turn-ins and because it was the same items those characters would have been requested to make that day anyway, it wouldn't let me do a second round. **Cost me 40 jubilee boxes!!**
Alchemy, on the other hand, is on a 4-day rotation and I was able to pick that up and immediately do an additional one.
Bottom line, if you picked up your alchemy writs on those characters some multiple of 4 days ago, then you wouldn't be able to pick up an additional one after turning the current/banked one in.
Also, just read a little further and you mentioned all consumables... This is not to be mean, but make sure you actually did the consumable crafting "certification" quest with Daniel at the mages guild on those characters. I had one CP-level character that had all crafting skills to level 50 but had not done the certification quests yet. You may have simply forgotten to do those as you were leveling the character. The good thing is, you probably won't have to actually do the quests if your skills are maxed. He gives you an option, although condescending in tone, to skip the tutorial and he will certify you based on previous experience.
Wreuntzylla wrote: »mike_skleinub17_ESO wrote: »I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e
Did you have the writs "banked" on those characters? As in, did you pick them up awhile ago and sit on them to turn in during the event?
I made the mistake of picking up writs and staging my alts at the turn in locations on Sunday Night. The problem became the writs that are on 3-day rotations (blacksmithing, clothing, woodworking, provisioning, and enchanting) were unable to be repeated on Wednesday because they were technically the same writ. The game logged my turn-ins and because it was the same items those characters would have been requested to make that day anyway, it wouldn't let me do a second round. **Cost me 40 jubilee boxes!!**
Alchemy, on the other hand, is on a 4-day rotation and I was able to pick that up and immediately do an additional one.
Bottom line, if you picked up your alchemy writs on those characters some multiple of 4 days ago, then you wouldn't be able to pick up an additional one after turning the current/banked one in.
Also, just read a little further and you mentioned all consumables... This is not to be mean, but make sure you actually did the consumable crafting "certification" quest with Daniel at the mages guild on those characters. I had one CP-level character that had all crafting skills to level 50 but had not done the certification quests yet. You may have simply forgotten to do those as you were leveling the character. The good thing is, you probably won't have to actually do the quests if your skills are maxed. He gives you an option, although condescending in tone, to skip the tutorial and he will certify you based on previous experience.
There is also something screwy with the certifications for low level toons. A while back I ran a new alt through the certifications but the writ board remained empty. Drove me crazy for a few days. The alt leveled, and suddenly the writs became available. I can't recall what level or how many I gained.
Anotherone773 wrote: »The first several days of the event my crafter who knows about a dozen complete purple books and partials of most others got a terrible drop rate. about 10 or 15%. My non crafter who only knows blue books got about 30% drop rate. The last couple of days my crafter has got about a 20-25% drop rate, while my non crafter has gotten about 10-15% drop rate. Over all, out of about 200-250 boxes, my drop rate has been just over 20%( about 21-22% i think).
I think it would be great if for the weekend they increased the average drop rate to like 50% as a sort of finale. Yeah...dream on Aerosmith, dream on.
I have not observed anything like this in ESO. E.g. this event has regular drops.@electromagnets
Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,
1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.
2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.
I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
@electromagnets
Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,
1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.
2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.
I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
Juju_beans wrote: »Oh my..I only have 1 crafter that learns everything. All my alts only learned the blue motifs.
I can't imagine having to collect everything on more than 1 character.
My data thus far:
Quests Complete: 1744
Motif Chapters Received: 387
Drop Ratio: 22.19%
Highest Drop Rates For Motif Chapters:Crafting Material Drop Rates:
- Worm Cult: 41 (2.35%)
- Silken Ring: 24 (1.38%)
- Ashlander: 20 (1.15%)
Furnishing Plan/Recipe Drop Rates:
- Gold Mats: 48 (2.75%) (Tempering Alloy, Dreugh Wax, Rosin, Kuta, Perfect Roe)
- Potent Nirncrux: 13 (0.75%)
- Fortified Nirncrux: 6 (0.34%)
- Epic Furnishing Plans: 8 (0.46%)
- Superior Furnishing Plans: 151 (8.66%)
- Epic Food Recipe: 25 (1.43%)
- Superior Food Recipe: 2 (0.11%)
*This data is from completing 6 Writs per day on 10 characters, and then completing as many Cyrodiil Quests as possible across 4-5 characters.
I find its an clustering, some days i get lots of motifs others i just get a few,Anotherone773 wrote: »@electromagnets
Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,
1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.
2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.
I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
There is definitely some sort of governing system. Regular drops have a governing system, i know that and have observed and tested them. I cant do enough boxes over a long enough period to test this enough to figure out how its governed though. To many factors at play.
I dont know of any system that is pure RNG. It always has governing algorithms. ZOS has made it clear they wish chaptered motifs to keep some of their rarity, so i dont see why they would go out of their way to lower normal drop rates then give two events to flood the market without any governing mechanics.
The event is not long enough to really figure it out and i dont want to "experiment" to see if changing how or when i get boxes affects it as it is limited time. So im just sticking to collecting data from normal play and trying to get as many boxes as possible.
I find its an clustering, some days i get lots of motifs others i just get a few,Anotherone773 wrote: »@electromagnets
Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,
1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.
2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.
I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
There is definitely some sort of governing system. Regular drops have a governing system, i know that and have observed and tested them. I cant do enough boxes over a long enough period to test this enough to figure out how its governed though. To many factors at play.
I dont know of any system that is pure RNG. It always has governing algorithms. ZOS has made it clear they wish chaptered motifs to keep some of their rarity, so i dont see why they would go out of their way to lower normal drop rates then give two events to flood the market without any governing mechanics.
The event is not long enough to really figure it out and i dont want to "experiment" to see if changing how or when i get boxes affects it as it is limited time. So im just sticking to collecting data from normal play and trying to get as many boxes as possible.
Yes its different drop rate on different motifs and the most desired items probably have an lower drop chance: I call it the spell power cure bow effect as bows of set are common while restoration staffs are very rare.
however I and probably most other tend to do the crafting writs on all their alts first then do other dailies.
it would be very visible if the later alts get far worse drops.
If they wanted an cap they would simply add one. it unlikely that they make some complex system with drop chance going down over time.
Everything indicate that boxes content is created on opening. You can see this by keeping them while leveling up or have an high level alt open an reward of the worthy box.Also the trick of opening that box the next day for the transmute geode.
Some should generate an tool like the crown crate logger to log loot drops of various types.