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Anniversary Event Motif Data

Wreuntzylla
Wreuntzylla
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I have multiple accounts and typically funnel things like motifs, furnishing plans and purple consumable recipes in hierarchical order. Everything to char A first, if A has it, then char B, and so on. For the sake of data collection, I sent all the motifs from one of the accounts to another one of the accounts and this is what is in the mail (almost all all from crafting dailies).

Dwemer Maces
Apostle Axes
TG Daggers
Hlaallu Legs
AD Shields
Malacath Belts
Abah Bows
Redoran Gloves
DC Daggers
DB Bows
Draugr helms
Silken Ring Shoulders
Worm Cult Gloves
Ashlander Axes
Telvanni Staves
Bloodforge Legs
Dro'Mathra Legs
Silken Ring Helmets
Minotaur Helmets
DB Axes
Assasins League Axes

Anecdotal Comments: Well developed characters with significant achievement progress, etc. tend to receive motifs at a 1:3 motif:box ratio. Sub-50 characters are generally shafted, took a level 30 with exp buff to do Cyrodiil dailies and out of 20 boxes, 3ish common motifs. Obviously not significant empirical data yet, but thought I'd throw that out there.
  • Juju_beans
    Juju_beans
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    Oh my..I only have 1 crafter that learns everything. All my alts only learned the blue motifs.
    I can't imagine having to collect everything on more than 1 character.
  • Wreuntzylla
    Wreuntzylla
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    Juju_beans wrote: »
    Oh my..I only have 1 crafter that learns everything. All my alts only learned the blue motifs.
    I can't imagine having to collect everything on more than 1 character.

    You would probably be stunned at how little time I spend/spent on the whole thing. I started at early release with guildies literally sending me every deconstructable drop. Interestingly, the more you expand the scope of your crafting project, the easier things become, as each addition is another source to feed new crafters. The major pain in my behind is skill points.

    I continue the effort to support my angel investors and feed my luxury vendor addiction.

    I largely don't engage in the huge time sinks as they aren't particularly necessary under ZoS' crown store oriented system. For example, although I have quite a few toons with significant motif knowledge, only a small number have the soul shriven style, and most haven't completed the 1-50 main and guild quests.

    The anniversary event is by far my favorite event because I build up my crafters by doing the same thing I do anyway - running writs. I don't sell any of the motifs, so I am not affecting the market.

    I also think the event is a credit to ZoS, which otherwise leans to far to the monetary side of things for my taste.
  • helediron
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    Pretty much my experience too. Everything excluding pure crown store motifs drop, even Akaviri. This is writcrafter's heaven Four worm cults in first day.

    My drop rate is now about one motif page from every fifth box.

    Quickly, sell the Assasins League Axes before price drop! :mrgreen:
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • mike_skleinub17_ESO
    I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e
  • Feric51
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    I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e

    Did you have the writs "banked" on those characters? As in, did you pick them up awhile ago and sit on them to turn in during the event?

    I made the mistake of picking up writs and staging my alts at the turn in locations on Sunday Night. The problem became the writs that are on 3-day rotations (blacksmithing, clothing, woodworking, provisioning, and enchanting) were unable to be repeated on Wednesday because they were technically the same writ. The game logged my turn-ins and because it was the same items those characters would have been requested to make that day anyway, it wouldn't let me do a second round. **Cost me 40 jubilee boxes!!**

    Alchemy, on the other hand, is on a 4-day rotation and I was able to pick that up and immediately do an additional one.

    Bottom line, if you picked up your alchemy writs on those characters some multiple of 4 days ago, then you wouldn't be able to pick up an additional one after turning the current/banked one in.

    Also, just read a little further and you mentioned all consumables... This is not to be mean, but make sure you actually did the consumable crafting "certification" quest with Daniel at the mages guild on those characters. I had one CP-level character that had all crafting skills to level 50 but had not done the certification quests yet. You may have simply forgotten to do those as you were leveling the character. The good thing is, you probably won't have to actually do the quests if your skills are maxed. He gives you an option, although condescending in tone, to skip the tutorial and he will certify you based on previous experience.
    Feric51
    Xbox NA

    Darkness Falls: The Crusade survivor (you young kids will never know the struggle of text-based games)


  • Jayne_Doe
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    I picked up the crafting writs on all 9 of my characters Tuesday night, so they were ready to turn in and pick up new writs. So, I opened 106 boxes (the additional 2 were the Blackfeather Court dailies - I only have one character that can do those, and I picked the quest up Tues. night so I could complete 2 yesterday).

    I didn't have time to do any of the other dailies on my main, but 106 boxes was a lot yesterday. I got 5 Worm Cult motifs, but one was a duplicate. Also, since I know all motifs, I sent all the other motif pages to my husband, who doesn't play as much on console (he's mainly PC).

    Last year, the event did not include Silken Ring or Mazzatun (at least I never got any of those). But, this year includes all currently available motifs, which is great, but also dilutes the loot table a bit. Interesting thing I noted, was that sometimes when I got the Worm Cult motif, I also got another rare item, usually another motif. So, it seems that the Worm Cult motif is on it's own drop chance, separate from the chance to get a rare item.
    Edited by Jayne_Doe on April 5, 2018 4:06PM
  • Wreuntzylla
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    Ouch, tough day today, motif rate dropped to about 1/3 of yesterday.
  • mike_skleinub17_ESO
    Hmm, it might be the tutorial thing..although one of the characters not getting the writ is my very first one ever. Nearly positive I did all those quests but ill double check this weekend
  • ghastley
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    Jayne_Doe wrote: »
    Interesting thing I noted, was that sometimes when I got the Worm Cult motif, I also got another rare item, usually another motif. So, it seems that the Worm Cult motif is on it's own drop chance, separate from the chance to get a rare item.
    The way they word it on the announcement page seems to agree with that. "Rarer rewards include hard-to-get motif pages previously only available in Vvardenfell, the Horns of the Reach dungeons, and the Clockwork City. Even rarer, you could receive a motif page for the brand-new Worm Cult style, a look that can only be found in the Anniversary Gift Boxes! " rather than "which could be the ever rarer.."

  • Jayne_Doe
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    It was almost another 200 boxes before I got any additional Worm Cult motif pages after the first day, in which I got 5. I've gotten 3 since that initial day, with one of them being another duplicate. So, I'm now up to 6 of 14 pages learned. I'm only opening 55 boxes most days (the initial day was doubled with the quests I picked up the day before). I don't have much time to play right now, so that's about as much as I can manage.

    It's likely I'll end up having to buy the remaining pages I need, but hopefully they won't be too expensive. I haven't even looked at motif pricing at guild traders.
  • Wreuntzylla
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    The motif drop rate seems to be lowering on a daily basis, and I am also getting fewer and fewer of the newer motifs as the event goes on. Today was a train wreck, with only 2-3 motifs worth anything out of 144 boxes. Normally, I'd chalk it up to RNG, but my data shows a continuous downward trend.

    Interestingly, one of my toons received 4 motifs from a single box yestrday, my previous record was 2. But of course, about 8 toons received literally nothing of interest except a potent nirncrux.

    I wonder if they dynamically adjust the drop rate based on the total number of motifs available and learned, or some such. Or perhaps on an account basis. Without opining on whether its a smart move, if the drop rate is being adjusted, some of us may be putting more effort than its worth at this point.
  • Wreuntzylla
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    Feric51 wrote: »
    I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e

    Did you have the writs "banked" on those characters? As in, did you pick them up awhile ago and sit on them to turn in during the event?

    I made the mistake of picking up writs and staging my alts at the turn in locations on Sunday Night. The problem became the writs that are on 3-day rotations (blacksmithing, clothing, woodworking, provisioning, and enchanting) were unable to be repeated on Wednesday because they were technically the same writ. The game logged my turn-ins and because it was the same items those characters would have been requested to make that day anyway, it wouldn't let me do a second round. **Cost me 40 jubilee boxes!!**

    Alchemy, on the other hand, is on a 4-day rotation and I was able to pick that up and immediately do an additional one.

    Bottom line, if you picked up your alchemy writs on those characters some multiple of 4 days ago, then you wouldn't be able to pick up an additional one after turning the current/banked one in.

    Also, just read a little further and you mentioned all consumables... This is not to be mean, but make sure you actually did the consumable crafting "certification" quest with Daniel at the mages guild on those characters. I had one CP-level character that had all crafting skills to level 50 but had not done the certification quests yet. You may have simply forgotten to do those as you were leveling the character. The good thing is, you probably won't have to actually do the quests if your skills are maxed. He gives you an option, although condescending in tone, to skip the tutorial and he will certify you based on previous experience.

    There is also something screwy with the certifications for low level toons. A while back I ran a new alt through the certifications but the writ board remained empty. Drove me crazy for a few days. The alt leveled, and suddenly the writs became available. I can't recall what level or how many I gained.
  • strangeradnd
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    Feric51 wrote: »
    I've gotten several motifs just in this short amount of time. For some reason though two of my alts aren't getting writs for consumables even though they are maxed. They also haven't really been played for months prior to this so I know its not cause they are still in cooldown or w/e

    Did you have the writs "banked" on those characters? As in, did you pick them up awhile ago and sit on them to turn in during the event?

    I made the mistake of picking up writs and staging my alts at the turn in locations on Sunday Night. The problem became the writs that are on 3-day rotations (blacksmithing, clothing, woodworking, provisioning, and enchanting) were unable to be repeated on Wednesday because they were technically the same writ. The game logged my turn-ins and because it was the same items those characters would have been requested to make that day anyway, it wouldn't let me do a second round. **Cost me 40 jubilee boxes!!**

    Alchemy, on the other hand, is on a 4-day rotation and I was able to pick that up and immediately do an additional one.

    Bottom line, if you picked up your alchemy writs on those characters some multiple of 4 days ago, then you wouldn't be able to pick up an additional one after turning the current/banked one in.

    Also, just read a little further and you mentioned all consumables... This is not to be mean, but make sure you actually did the consumable crafting "certification" quest with Daniel at the mages guild on those characters. I had one CP-level character that had all crafting skills to level 50 but had not done the certification quests yet. You may have simply forgotten to do those as you were leveling the character. The good thing is, you probably won't have to actually do the quests if your skills are maxed. He gives you an option, although condescending in tone, to skip the tutorial and he will certify you based on previous experience.

    There is also something screwy with the certifications for low level toons. A while back I ran a new alt through the certifications but the writ board remained empty. Drove me crazy for a few days. The alt leveled, and suddenly the writs became available. I can't recall what level or how many I gained.

    You need to be level 6 to do writs but can certify earlier.
  • Anotherone773
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    The first several days of the event my crafter who knows about a dozen complete purple books and partials of most others got a terrible drop rate. about 10 or 15%. My non crafter who only knows blue books got about 30% drop rate. The last couple of days my crafter has got about a 20-25% drop rate, while my non crafter has gotten about 10-15% drop rate. Over all, out of about 200-250 boxes, my drop rate has been just over 20%( about 21-22% i think).

    I think it would be great if for the weekend they increased the average drop rate to like 50% as a sort of finale. Yeah...dream on Aerosmith, dream on.
    Edited by Anotherone773 on April 11, 2018 8:12PM
  • Wreuntzylla
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    The first several days of the event my crafter who knows about a dozen complete purple books and partials of most others got a terrible drop rate. about 10 or 15%. My non crafter who only knows blue books got about 30% drop rate. The last couple of days my crafter has got about a 20-25% drop rate, while my non crafter has gotten about 10-15% drop rate. Over all, out of about 200-250 boxes, my drop rate has been just over 20%( about 21-22% i think).

    I think it would be great if for the weekend they increased the average drop rate to like 50% as a sort of finale. Yeah...dream on Aerosmith, dream on.

    I think it will be a mistake for them not to make it possible for the average player. I open a couple hundred boxes a day and haven't completed worm cult. I will buy what I don't have closer to the finale but it cost is out of reach for most players. The nerdrage that will generate!

    There is a rumor that it will drop in summerset.
  • NolaArch
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    I’ve been running a tally of every box that has at least a motif or furnishing or just crafting materials. When the event is over, I’ll run the stats on drops by type. I’m interested to see how it all looks! Plus, I’ve kept track of how much I’ve made selling patterns and motifs I don’t need in addition to a tally of the gold I’m getting just from turning in 48 writs a day.

    My Worm drop rate the other day was 2%. Anyway, it’s a fun event!
    Ardat-Yakshii EP Stam NB
    36k anchovy club
    Mash the buttons, hope for the best!
    I have some achievements
  • helediron
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    I have steady drop rates throughout the anniversary event.
    https://blog.fizban.fi/2018/04/anniversary-2018-daily-rewards-motif-pages/
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • Beardimus
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    @helediron Ra Gada definitely drops. I've had a few
    Xbox One | EU | EP
    Beardimus : VR16 Dunmer MagSorc [RIP MagDW 2015-2018]
    Emperor of Sotha Sil 02-2018 & Sheogorath 05-2019
    1st Emperor of Ravenwatch
    Alts - - for the Lolz
    Archimus : Bosmer Thief / Archer / Werewolf
    Orcimus : Fat drunk Orc battlefield 1st aider
    Scalimus - Argonian Sorc Healer / Pet master

    Fighting small scale with : The SAXON Guild
    Fighting with [PvP] : The Undaunted Wolves
    Trading Guilds : TradersOfNirn | FourSquareTraders

    Xbox One | NA | EP
    Bëardimus : L43 Dunmer Magsorc / BG
    Heals-With-Pets : VR16 Argonian Sorc PvP / BG Healer
    Nordimus : VR16 Stamsorc
    Beardimus le 13iem : L30 Dunmer Magsorc Icereach
  • Wreuntzylla
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    Ok, so post-patch it is Day 1 all over again. Lot's of motifs.
  • helediron
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    I counted my individual motif drops:

    Worm Cult seems to have triple drop rate to others.

    20180413110808-d2ee2ebf-me.png

    I had to cheat a bit to get the numbers because i counted them from inventory but forgot to clear it before event. Mercenary, Hollowjack, Assassins and Skinchanger amounts are just a guess because i had about hundred of them there. I adjusted them down to average in the graph. Details in blog .
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • electromagnets
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    I’ve also had (dramatically) decreased drop rates for all motifs, not just WC. I run 6 crafting dailys on 29 characters across 3 accounts and the results are nearly the same - I’ve gone from rarely getting a box without a motif, to rarely getting a box with any motif. Interestingly as well, it seems to have nothing to do with the crafting level of the character - some of my lowest lowbies are pulling 2 or 3 motifs per 6 boxes, while my main crafter and other nearly maxed crafters haven’t gotten a single motif in days.

    At first I speculated that it had to do with how many motifs I had already received throughout the event, but now I’m thinking it has more to do with how many motifs the server has generated over the course of the event. As @Wreuntzylla said above, some of us are probably putting much work into this than it’s worth at this point, gambling for the drop rates we had at the beginning of the event. So in the end I’m left thinking “why even extent the event if the drop rates for motifs have already been nerfed into the ground?” Thanks a lot, Zos.
  • davey1107
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    @electromagnets

    Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,

    1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.

    2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.

    I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
  • helediron
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    davey1107 wrote: »
    @electromagnets

    Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,

    1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.

    2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.

    I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.
    I have not observed anything like this in ESO. E.g. this event has regular drops.
    On hiatus. PC,EU,AD - crafting completionist - @helediron 900+ cp, @helestor 1000+ cp, @helestar 800+ cp, @helester 700+ cp - Dragonborn Z Suomikilta, Harrods, Master Crafter. - Blog - Crafthouse: all stations, all munduses, all dummies, open to everyone
  • Anotherone773
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    davey1107 wrote: »
    @electromagnets

    Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,

    1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.

    2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.

    I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.

    There is definitely some sort of governing system. Regular drops have a governing system, i know that and have observed and tested them. I cant do enough boxes over a long enough period to test this enough to figure out how its governed though. To many factors at play.

    I dont know of any system that is pure RNG. It always has governing algorithms. ZOS has made it clear they wish chaptered motifs to keep some of their rarity, so i dont see why they would go out of their way to lower normal drop rates then give two events to flood the market without any governing mechanics.

    The event is not long enough to really figure it out and i dont want to "experiment" to see if changing how or when i get boxes affects it as it is limited time. So im just sticking to collecting data from normal play and trying to get as many boxes as possible.
  • Paazhahdrimaak
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    Juju_beans wrote: »
    Oh my..I only have 1 crafter that learns everything. All my alts only learned the blue motifs.
    I can't imagine having to collect everything on more than 1 character.

    Yeah same. My alts have there crafting skills at 50, but chartater 'A' learns everything all perked out to 10. Then as it goes down charater 'B' has them all at 9, and so forth

    But i cant imagine why anyone would put themselves through those grinds more than once
  • mike_skleinub17_ESO
    I'm getting far loss WC drops than anything else. But I did get the full WC book last night.
  • CGPsaint
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    My data thus far:
    Quests Complete: 1744
    Motif Chapters Received: 387
    Drop Ratio: 22.19%

    Highest Drop Rates For Motif Chapters:
    • Worm Cult: 41 (2.35%)
    • Silken Ring: 24 (1.38%)
    • Ashlander: 20 (1.15%)
    Crafting Material Drop Rates:
    • Gold Mats: 48 (2.75%) (Tempering Alloy, Dreugh Wax, Rosin, Kuta, Perfect Roe)
    • Potent Nirncrux: 13 (0.75%)
    • Fortified Nirncrux: 6 (0.34%)
    Furnishing Plan/Recipe Drop Rates:
    • Epic Furnishing Plans: 8 (0.46%)
    • Superior Furnishing Plans: 151 (8.66%)
    • Epic Food Recipe: 25 (1.43%)
    • Superior Food Recipe: 2 (0.11%)

    *This data is from completing 6 Writs per day on 10 characters, and then completing as many Cyrodiil Quests as possible across 4-5 characters.
    Edited by CGPsaint on April 19, 2018 9:26PM
    "Some enjoy bringing grief to others. They remind M'aiq of mudcrabs—horrible creatures, with no redeeming qualities."
  • Wreuntzylla
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    CGPsaint wrote: »
    My data thus far:
    Quests Complete: 1744
    Motif Chapters Received: 387
    Drop Ratio: 22.19%

    Highest Drop Rates For Motif Chapters:
    • Worm Cult: 41 (2.35%)
    • Silken Ring: 24 (1.38%)
    • Ashlander: 20 (1.15%)
    Crafting Material Drop Rates:
    • Gold Mats: 48 (2.75%) (Tempering Alloy, Dreugh Wax, Rosin, Kuta, Perfect Roe)
    • Potent Nirncrux: 13 (0.75%)
    • Fortified Nirncrux: 6 (0.34%)
    Furnishing Plan/Recipe Drop Rates:
    • Epic Furnishing Plans: 8 (0.46%)
    • Superior Furnishing Plans: 151 (8.66%)
    • Epic Food Recipe: 25 (1.43%)
    • Superior Food Recipe: 2 (0.11%)

    *This data is from completing 6 Writs per day on 10 characters, and then completing as many Cyrodiil Quests as possible across 4-5 characters.

    Of those epic furniture recipes, how many clockwork single panel? That's the only epic I received and close to every toon across accounts knows it now...
  • zaria
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    davey1107 wrote: »
    @electromagnets

    Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,

    1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.

    2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.

    I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.

    There is definitely some sort of governing system. Regular drops have a governing system, i know that and have observed and tested them. I cant do enough boxes over a long enough period to test this enough to figure out how its governed though. To many factors at play.

    I dont know of any system that is pure RNG. It always has governing algorithms. ZOS has made it clear they wish chaptered motifs to keep some of their rarity, so i dont see why they would go out of their way to lower normal drop rates then give two events to flood the market without any governing mechanics.

    The event is not long enough to really figure it out and i dont want to "experiment" to see if changing how or when i get boxes affects it as it is limited time. So im just sticking to collecting data from normal play and trying to get as many boxes as possible.
    I find its an clustering, some days i get lots of motifs others i just get a few,
    Yes its different drop rate on different motifs and the most desired items probably have an lower drop chance: I call it the spell power cure bow effect as bows of set are common while restoration staffs are very rare.

    however I and probably most other tend to do the crafting writs on all their alts first then do other dailies.
    it would be very visible if the later alts get far worse drops.

    If they wanted an cap they would simply add one. it unlikely that they make some complex system with drop chance going down over time.

    Everything indicate that boxes content is created on opening. You can see this by keeping them while leveling up or have an high level alt open an reward of the worthy box.Also the trick of opening that box the next day for the transmute geode.

    Some should generate an tool like the crown crate logger to log loot drops of various types.
    Grinding just make you go in circles.
    Asking ZoS for nerfs is as stupid as asking for close air support from the death star.
  • Wreuntzylla
    Wreuntzylla
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    zaria wrote: »
    davey1107 wrote: »
    @electromagnets

    Having worked on some games, including an rpg, and based on observation, I believe that the ring formula includes,

    1. A time penalty by account. This might not eliminate the odds of a motif, it might just reduce them. We know ESO has this capability...the House motifs from pickpocketing have a time penalty.

    2. Some sort of systemwide distribution algorithm that accounts for how many are distributed in certain periods. I’ve actually believed this about any reward item for a while. It’s a sort of traffic control mechanism that prevents people from destroying the market for any one item by reducing the effectiveness of farming. If the system sees traffic that makes it predict 1,000 people are doing a quest in a period, it might reward 10 “gold” items, or 1%. But if the game jams and 10,000 do the quest, it rewards 50, or a 0.5% rate.

    I’ve never quite figured out the specifics, but observationally the rates seem to go down when the game is busier. I don’t think the motif rate is dropping over time...I think it’s lower today because it was a weekend and the game is jammed, and I bet it goes up next week when fewer players are on.

    There is definitely some sort of governing system. Regular drops have a governing system, i know that and have observed and tested them. I cant do enough boxes over a long enough period to test this enough to figure out how its governed though. To many factors at play.

    I dont know of any system that is pure RNG. It always has governing algorithms. ZOS has made it clear they wish chaptered motifs to keep some of their rarity, so i dont see why they would go out of their way to lower normal drop rates then give two events to flood the market without any governing mechanics.

    The event is not long enough to really figure it out and i dont want to "experiment" to see if changing how or when i get boxes affects it as it is limited time. So im just sticking to collecting data from normal play and trying to get as many boxes as possible.
    I find its an clustering, some days i get lots of motifs others i just get a few,
    Yes its different drop rate on different motifs and the most desired items probably have an lower drop chance: I call it the spell power cure bow effect as bows of set are common while restoration staffs are very rare.

    however I and probably most other tend to do the crafting writs on all their alts first then do other dailies.
    it would be very visible if the later alts get far worse drops.

    If they wanted an cap they would simply add one. it unlikely that they make some complex system with drop chance going down over time.

    Everything indicate that boxes content is created on opening. You can see this by keeping them while leveling up or have an high level alt open an reward of the worthy box.Also the trick of opening that box the next day for the transmute geode.

    Some should generate an tool like the crown crate logger to log loot drops of various types.

    It's pretty common for gaming companies to tie drop rain some more than simple way. For example, some tie drop rate to the number of items of a type existing in the game world. It's a failsafe for game economies that are difficult to control or dupe exploits.

    ZoS has released a small amount of information. So, for example, harvest node respawn rate is tied to population. We also know that there are cooldowns for nirncrux harvests and pickpocketting Vvardenfeld motifs.

    Totally want the tool. I can provide tons of data but no time to record it myself.
    Edited by Wreuntzylla on April 20, 2018 3:10PM
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