Crafting Statistics: master writ drop rates 2018-04

helediron

I finished a long test run for master writ drop rates in Dragon Bones update. This represents a simulated master crafter making six writs every day over three years.

The table below shows average master writ drop rates and daily averages of earned vouchers:

• There is 72% chance to get one master writ (from any profession).
• On average a crafter earns 8.2 vouchers each day.
• See the table for per-profession results.

E.g. a blacksmith master writs have 10% drop chance. On average blacksmith master writs bring 2.3 vouchers each day.

The math behind the numbers is in my blog. But shortly said, the writ drop rates are now definite within 5% margin. They are now a statistical fact.

Voucher drop rates have larger, about 25% error margin. The table shows about 8 vouchers earned every day on average. But because of the uncertainty, it could as well be 7 or 9 vouchers. Getting the number accurate is way too big effort. The reason is that vouchers are behind double-RNG. First there is a dice roll if a writ drops at all. Then there is a second dice roll with VERY large range of vouhers for the content of the writ. My guess is that to get voucher drops definite would require over ten year simulation. I won't do it.

More details in my blog article Master Writ Drop Rates 2018-04.

ghastley

I assume that "Master Crafter" here means more than just one who has hit level 50, but also knows the motifs, recipes etc. that influence the rate of drop.

Were those knowledge factors constant over the test? Or does learning new stuff account for the slight upward trend you noted? And do you have numbers that will allow others with different knowledge to scale their own expectations?

helediron

ghastley wrote: »

I assume that "Master Crafter" here means more than just one who has hit level 50, but also knows the motifs, recipes etc. that influence the rate of drop.

Were those knowledge factors constant over the test? Or does learning new stuff account for the slight upward trend you noted? And do you have numbers that will allow others with different knowledge to scale their own expectations?

The crafters are at the high end of knowledge. half of them have 9 traits on everything. Rest have 9 traits on about 70% and few (character slots 13 and 14) have just started their ninth researches. Because they all are at the end of researching career they don't much change any more. Those not yet at full 9 traits learned one stripe of nirns during the test and maybe few more epic recipes. Overall i don't think that changes much results.

Learning more slightly increases your chances to get a writ. Giving numbers is very, very difficult. A true master crafter compared to 8 trait and 10 motif book level crafter is maybe 15..20% better. On the other hand two max level but idiot crafters are better than one true master crafter.

Carbonised

helediron wrote: »

On the other hand two max level but idiot crafters are better than one true master crafter.

This is the take away point, and it confirms what has been said before as well. While I disagree that this is a good game design, I have resignated that ZOS will always overly rely on randomness over skill in terms of rewards, and created my own crafting writ mules. Reluctantly.

Carbonised

Another take away point, the alchemy, enchanting and especially provisioning voucher rewards are woefully behind the other durable crafts by a large factor.

I have long suggested that we up the required crafting goods as well as the voucher rewards by a factor of 5-10, to make them more desirable. 2 vouchers for a writ is less than a drop in the ocean, and let's not even start with the infamous roe writs.

Morgul667

Thanks for those great data !

helediron

I think i found an error. For provisioning the drop rate should be 11% - not 8%. My other account knows much less epic recipes and has 4% drop rate while first account has that 11% drop rate. So instead of taking average from both i take the higher.

And this fix increases daily earned provisioning vouchers from 0.3 to 0.4 .

ghastley

One thing I can't find in these stats is any discussion of correlation between writ content and reward. Do writs to make the same thing have the same reward, i.e random content, but then calculated reward, or is there a dice roll just for the vouchers?

I imagine that would be very hard to determine experimentally, as the content combinations are theoretically so huge a sample space, but if there's evidence that the equipment writs are a random selection from a modest set of pre-selected motif/trait/style/level combinations, that would make it easier.

We know that there are only a few ordinary writs at each level, and they may be on a cycle, or randomly selected from the list. So the use of the same mechanism for master writs - i.e. random selection from list, rather than random generation of each constituent item - would make coding simpler. Of course, any observation of identical content and different rewards disproves that theory.

helediron

@ghastley , i have collected a list of various master writs, and i have some idea how it works. The game generates the content randomly. Then the vouchers are counted via a formula from the content.

I can write a post how it works, and publish the data, although my data is still incomplete and the formula has 10% errors still.

Nightfall12

lol sorry my dyslexia kicked in and i read that all wrong thought he said did this study over 3 days…not years…i was like umm that is not enough of a sample…then i reread it wow thats some crazy dedication.
all I know is with all these daily rewards I have been doing the writs more often on more of my toons that maxed the craft lines and i have so many master writs siting waiting to be done

JasonSilverSpring

Nightfall12 wrote: »

lol sorry my dyslexia kicked in and i read that all wrong thought he said did this study over 3 days…not years…i was like umm that is not enough of a sample…then i reread it wow thats some crazy dedication.
all I know is with all these daily rewards I have been doing the writs more often on more of my toons that maxed the craft lines and i have so many master writs siting waiting to be done

It is not over three years. Master writs have not even existed that long. It was simulated over three years.

The piece missing is how many crafting daily writs were done to come to these conclusions. It takes a very large sample size to make such conclusions. It might be on the blog but really should be stated here.

helediron

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

Nightfall12 wrote: »

lol sorry my dyslexia kicked in and i read that all wrong thought he said did this study over 3 days…not years…i was like umm that is not enough of a sample…then i reread it wow thats some crazy dedication.
all I know is with all these daily rewards I have been doing the writs more often on more of my toons that maxed the craft lines and i have so many master writs siting waiting to be done

It is not over three years. Master writs have not even existed that long. It was simulated over three years.

The piece missing is how many crafting daily writs were done to come to these conclusions. It takes a very large sample size to make such conclusions. It might be on the blog but really should be stated here.

No, i won't state everything here. I put just the nutshell results into forum post to avoid TLDR. Anyway, 7056 writs done. Stay away from the blog post. It's five or six pages filled with scary numbers and evil graphs. Stick with 4chan.

JasonSilverSpring

helediron wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

Nightfall12 wrote: »

lol sorry my dyslexia kicked in and i read that all wrong thought he said did this study over 3 days…not years…i was like umm that is not enough of a sample…then i reread it wow thats some crazy dedication.
all I know is with all these daily rewards I have been doing the writs more often on more of my toons that maxed the craft lines and i have so many master writs siting waiting to be done

It is not over three years. Master writs have not even existed that long. It was simulated over three years.

The piece missing is how many crafting daily writs were done to come to these conclusions. It takes a very large sample size to make such conclusions. It might be on the blog but really should be stated here.

No, i won't state everything here. I put just the nutshell results into forum post to avoid TLDR. Anyway, 7056 writs done. Stay away from the blog post. It's five or six pages filled with scary numbers and evil graphs. Stick with 4chan.

No need to be a jerk. Adding one sentence with the sample size would hardly be so difficult.

I majored in Mathematics with a focus on numerical computing. Numbers don't scare me.

helediron

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

helediron wrote: »

JasonSilverSpring wrote: »

Nightfall12 wrote: »

lol sorry my dyslexia kicked in and i read that all wrong thought he said did this study over 3 days…not years…i was like umm that is not enough of a sample…then i reread it wow thats some crazy dedication.
all I know is with all these daily rewards I have been doing the writs more often on more of my toons that maxed the craft lines and i have so many master writs siting waiting to be done

It is not over three years. Master writs have not even existed that long. It was simulated over three years.

The piece missing is how many crafting daily writs were done to come to these conclusions. It takes a very large sample size to make such conclusions. It might be on the blog but really should be stated here.

No, i won't state everything here. I put just the nutshell results into forum post to avoid TLDR. Anyway, 7056 writs done. Stay away from the blog post. It's five or six pages filled with scary numbers and evil graphs. Stick with 4chan.

No need to be a jerk. Adding one sentence with the sample size would hardly be so difficult.

I majored in Mathematics with a focus on numerical computing. Numbers don't scare me.

Stop bickering over one little detail. The numbers have been all this time in the blog behind a direct link.

Karivaa

Is the drop rate better than prior to dragonbones? I have 2 master crafters. My main has almost all of the motifs learned but I am still missing worm cult and a few others. I rarely get master writs and if I do get them, they are super low and reward only 2-8 vouchers on average. My other crafter does not get any master writs which is expected.

Karivaa

Oh and people who are arguing over your statistics should read your blog. Your statistics look sound to me! Good job!

pteam

Yea @helediron did all this work and posted the findings for us. Bravo to them. Disregard anybody who wants more info but can’t be bothered to click a link to get the rest of the info, they’re just a waste of your time.

helediron

Thanks guys or gals. I fear i won't be returning back to writ statistics until after summer. For me a good test of master writs takes at least a month - preferably two moths continuous bookkeeping. But i'll be on my summer cottage and Summerset is taking most of playtime. Writs are a bit on hiatus now.

ninti

Karivaa wrote: »

Is the drop rate better than prior to dragonbones?

I kept careful records of writs from Feb-Jun 2017. The numbers of my master crater are very close to his:

Master Writs/Writ
Alchemy 16.5%
Blacksmithing 11.8%
Clothing 15.0%
Enchanting 9.4%
Provisioning 7.1%
Woodworking 11.8%