Crown Crate Drop Rates - Why so many Nix-Hounds?

Enodoc

In short, it appears to be because there is a set drop rate for "Pets", and that's the only pet at that tier this time.

Comparing the results in my spreadsheet from the Wild Hunt crates last time, and this season's Dwemer crates, they both have approximately a 25% chance at dropping a pet from a card that comes up blue, but there were two pets last time, so that was split between Banekins and Bravil Retrievers.

So here's the apparent drop rates from Wild Hunt and Dwemer crates, based on category:

Blue Cards:
Costumes: 20-25%
Hats: 5-10%
Mementos: 15-20%
Pets: 25%
Style Parlor: 20-25%

Purple Cards:
Costumes+Hats: 10-15%
Mementos: 20%
Mounts+Pets: 30% (15% each if both are possible)
Style Parlor: 15-30% * (not sure why this is so large a range)
XP Scroll: 10-20% * (another large range)

* With only two seasons tested, and different Style Parlor subcategories involved, I can't be sure whether the drop rates for XP scrolls and Style Parlor items have actually been changed, or if there's just not enough data yet, given the numerous different subcategories of Style Parlor items.

Gold Cards:
Costumes+Hats: 20-25%
Crafting Motifs: 15% **
Furnishings: 15%
Mementos: 15%
Mounts: 15%
Pets: 15%
XP Scrolls: 10-15%

** Crafting Motifs were added this season, and were not in the Wild Hunt crates. This seems to have had the most effect on the drop rate of Mounts, Pets, and Costumes/Hats.

Storm Atronach
I haven't included Storm Atronach crates here since there were a lot of different categories added since they came out. But it is worth noting that at the Gold tier in those crates, mounts appeared to have a 50% chance, and pets had 25%, so they appear to be the largest casualties of new categories being added. Interestingly, mementos and XP scrolls at the Gold tier also appeared to be much lower in the Storm Atronach crates, at around 5% between them. But that may be within the acceptable parameters of probability theory.

I also haven't included drops from the White and Green cards, or the Apex cards, but if you want to have a look at the full data, check out the spreadsheet; the drop rates by card type are underneath the total drop rates for each table. And remember likelihood theory; it is quite possible that most of these observed drop rates fall within the acceptable range of an actual drop rate that isn't changed between seasons.

Stovahkiin

We're going to see 5,000 threads on the 17th that all say, "Niixx Houundzz!!!"

Enodoc

Stovahkiin wrote: »

We're going to see 5,000 threads on the 17th that all say, "Niixx Houundzz!!!"

Yeah that's probably true. But statistics has shown that this is actually nothing to worry about after all

vrine

Thanks heaps for this! I avidly buy crates so its nice to have an estimate of the drop rates

DaveMoeDee

Finally got a Nix-Hound! 1/6 - 1 preorder crate and 5 event free crates.