Luck

StormWylf

As an admitted altaholic, I have played many different characters in this game. Recently I have noticed that a couple of my characters seem to be 'lucky', while two in particular seem to be 'unlucky'. By that I mean, when opening chests, or stealing from crates, even drops the 'lucky' characters always seem to find items of value or good for their class. While the 'unlucky characters' just like Charlie Brown seem to always find rocks (flint, nickle ect.) or low value items.
I'm not interested in hearing about RNG, I get it. But I really wonder, when we roll our toons, is their a hidden Luck characteristic that influences our RNG?

ParaNostram

The human mind can detect patterns too well, to the point in which we see them where they do not exist. There is no hidden luck attribute.

dodgehopper_ESO

Imperials use to get bonus luck in previous games - ironically my Imperials tend to be less lucky. Perhaps it is a function of Tiber Septim = Null Set at this point in time.

Tryxus

My Nightblade crafter barely gets any Kuta from Writ containers and he never finds any in general

My Warden on the other hand, finds plenty of Kuta x5 from Heavy Sacks

MarbleQuiche

I notice patterns in RNG that suggest it's not random.

I notice patterns in loads of places. Sometimes they're not there.

Have look through the last few patch notes. There was an issue fixed and the way it was worded seemed to let slip that the RNG is loaded in certain situations. I don't remember what that issue was, sorry!

Alternatively, see paragraph two.

Or work on the assumption everything is loaded and when you feel you're not being rewarded enough, walk away and play something else.

Magdalina

I don't think there is a luck attribute but RNG is never truly random. It's using some complex algorithm to get a semi-random number based on some starting value. The value could be the time of the "dice rolling" or/and something else like say the time of the character's creation or whatever(just guessing here). I'm pretty sure ESO's RNG is not just very far from random but very biased towards certain characters/scenarios. We've all probably noticed how often it gets stuck within the same pattern, for example it's pretty often that 3-4 people in the group of 4 get the same drop in same trait - way more often than it should be. It also appears pretty frequent that "rolling the dice" in quick succession several times in a row(for example, converting 10 Glass motif chapter fragments into a chapter) seems extremely likely to result with the very same result. I've gotten the very same chapter 3+ times in a row multiple times. The same chapter out of what...15 we have?..c'mon now.

It appears that whatever algorithm they are using is not good enough and still ends up relying too heavily on the starting values. I do know that some people appear to have just insane luck with just about everything whereas others don't, and this seems wayyyy more persistent to be a coincidence. Perhaps it's that the date of that character creation just happens to be some lucky number that when squeezed through the "RNG" algorithm ends up with a net positive way more often than not.

Just trying to make educated guesses here based on the little I know about how RNG works but at this point I am pretty convinced ESO's RNG is very much flawed and failing at its supposed goal - to give everyone equal chances at receiving something.

Danikat

Since you're comparing your own characters there actually is a way you can find out, although it'll be pretty tedious.

Whenever you're doing something you believe is affected by luck write down all the drops you get. And I mean ALL the drops - not the 'important' items or the best/worst items - all of them. Anything else is subject to confirmation bias (where you're more likely to record good items on the 'lucky' characters and disregard the bad ones and vice versa). If it's chests also remember to record what kind of chest it was (simple, master etc.)

Once you have enough data, say about 50-100 chests per character, you can compare it and see if there actually is a pattern.

If you do decide to go ahead with this please remember to post the results, it'd be interesting to see what you find out.

Danikat

Magdalina wrote: »

I don't think there is a luck attribute but RNG is never truly random. It's using some complex algorithm to get a semi-random number based on some starting value. The value could be the time of the "dice rolling" or/and something else like say the time of the character's creation or whatever(just guessing here). I'm pretty sure ESO's RNG is not just very far from random but very biased towards certain characters/scenarios. We've all probably noticed how often it gets stuck within the same pattern, for example it's pretty often that 3-4 people in the group of 4 get the same drop in same trait - way more often than it should be. It also appears pretty frequent that "rolling the dice" in quick succession several times in a row(for example, converting 10 Glass motif chapter fragments into a chapter) seems extremely likely to result with the very same result. I've gotten the very same chapter 3+ times in a row multiple times. The same chapter out of what...15 we have?..c'mon now.

It appears that whatever algorithm they are using is not good enough and still ends up relying too heavily on the starting values. I do know that some people appear to have just insane luck with just about everything whereas others don't, and this seems wayyyy more persistent to be a coincidence. Perhaps it's that the date of that character creation just happens to be some lucky number that when squeezed through the "RNG" algorithm ends up with a net positive way more often than not.

Just trying to make educated guesses here based on the little I know about how RNG works but at this point I am pretty convinced ESO's RNG is very much flawed and failing at its supposed goal - to give everyone equal chances at receiving something.

Based on your example it seems more likely that whatever 'starting value' they're using has nothing to do with the character. Otherwise for 3 characters out of 4 in a group to get the same drop they'd have to have been created on the same day.

In cases like dungeon boss drops it's more likely that it's weighted RNG. Lets say the number generator runs from 1-100 inclusive, and there's 10 possible drops. Instead of each drop having 10 numbers assigned to it, giving an equal chance of each outcome, some have more and some less. So a trait ZOS knows is less popular could get 1-30, while the one everyone wants gets 95-100, giving the first one a 30% chance to drop and the 2nd a 5% chance.

That would actually make a weird kind of sense if they want to keep people running dungeons - a lot of people say as soon as they've got the drop/s they want they're never going back to that dungeon, so if they make it harder to get they can keep people going back.

That's definitely the way it works with crown crates - various people have the data to prove it. Higher tier items are less likely to drop (with rates dropping to something like 0.05% for the themed mounts) but even within a tier some things seem to be more common than others. The infamous nix hound seems to be a common example at the moment.

Magdalina

Danikat wrote: »

Magdalina wrote: »

I don't think there is a luck attribute but RNG is never truly random. It's using some complex algorithm to get a semi-random number based on some starting value. The value could be the time of the "dice rolling" or/and something else like say the time of the character's creation or whatever(just guessing here). I'm pretty sure ESO's RNG is not just very far from random but very biased towards certain characters/scenarios. We've all probably noticed how often it gets stuck within the same pattern, for example it's pretty often that 3-4 people in the group of 4 get the same drop in same trait - way more often than it should be. It also appears pretty frequent that "rolling the dice" in quick succession several times in a row(for example, converting 10 Glass motif chapter fragments into a chapter) seems extremely likely to result with the very same result. I've gotten the very same chapter 3+ times in a row multiple times. The same chapter out of what...15 we have?..c'mon now.

It appears that whatever algorithm they are using is not good enough and still ends up relying too heavily on the starting values. I do know that some people appear to have just insane luck with just about everything whereas others don't, and this seems wayyyy more persistent to be a coincidence. Perhaps it's that the date of that character creation just happens to be some lucky number that when squeezed through the "RNG" algorithm ends up with a net positive way more often than not.

Just trying to make educated guesses here based on the little I know about how RNG works but at this point I am pretty convinced ESO's RNG is very much flawed and failing at its supposed goal - to give everyone equal chances at receiving something.

Based on your example it seems more likely that whatever 'starting value' they're using has nothing to do with the character. Otherwise for 3 characters out of 4 in a group to get the same drop they'd have to have been created on the same day.

In cases like dungeon boss drops it's more likely that it's weighted RNG. Lets say the number generator runs from 1-100 inclusive, and there's 10 possible drops. Instead of each drop having 10 numbers assigned to it, giving an equal chance of each outcome, some have more and some less. So a trait ZOS knows is less popular could get 1-30, while the one everyone wants gets 95-100, giving the first one a 30% chance to drop and the 2nd a 5% chance.

That would actually make a weird kind of sense if they want to keep people running dungeons - a lot of people say as soon as they've got the drop/s they want they're never going back to that dungeon, so if they make it harder to get they can keep people going back.

That's just one-two examples out of many though. If it's a more complex algorithm I suppose it could be using several starting values too, but case in point is it definitely doesn't feel "random". I know someone in ESO who had absolutely insane luck with all the drops, like remember back when they just introduced whole Undaunted system and you weren't guaranteed a helm nor a shoulder from dungeon/chest? He got one literally EVERY time. Literally. He got best sets for his build as well but suppose that could be subjective, however the fact that he got 9-10/10 helms from 10 dungeons runs where the rest of us was lucky to get 1-2 is a fact. Afaik his RNG still keeps its luck today.

And yes, I am pretty sure training and prosperous are weighted a lot higher than other traits are, but it doesn't explain all of the "randomness" weird behaviour.

MarbleQuiche

One of the most obvious patterns is in stealing from containers. There are thousands of items that can be inside, but most people have experienced a run of 4 or 5 identical items in a row. Very, very unlikely if we were rolling a die with thousands of sides.

When this system first launched, role-players were going crazy looting for clothes. My role-play guild was filled with realtime chatter about what was being found. People were looting the same clothes at the same time way too often, irrespective of how distant they were from each other in the game world.

I think one of the elements in the RNG is time.

Alternatively, see paragraph two of my previous reply =D

Anlace

I've noticed this too. I've never had any especially unlucky characters, but I've had two that were charmed.

It's true that we look for patterns instinctively and sometimes find them where they aren't but I trust my perception on this one. I've thought about making a spreadsheet for it, as suggested above... I just don't care about it that much.

Triumviri

Yea my nb is wayyyy luckier then my templar. Of course i am bias.

SirAndy

MarbleQuiche wrote: »

I notice patterns in RNG that suggest it's not random.

^^^ We have a winner!

Do a search here, plenty of old threads about the not so random ESO RNG, going back all the way to the closed beta days.

Linaleah

it seems like my sorcerer tends to have better luck with finding furnishing recipes then my actual crafting main. so... just in case, I run them both through my usual farming routes

Ackwalan

An additional cool down timer was added to the fillet fish. You could intentionally get the RNG stuck and get multiple perfect roe in a row. What ever program ZOS uses for RNG, they need to go back and take a look at it.

Tasear

I believe zos read my mind... gave me divine spc robe and sharpened sword spc .... but it was ...on... My lvl 24..... :'(

Tasear

SirAndy wrote: »

MarbleQuiche wrote: »

I notice patterns in RNG that suggest it's not random.

^^^ We have a winner!

Do a search here, plenty of old threads about the not so random ESO RNG, going back all the way to the closed beta days.

First thing you learn in programing is you can't program random..only psuedo random.

Then again if rngjesus doesn't exist who ate my goats

Junkkis

luck=infinite content.
its cheap way.

Dragonnord

I agree with OP. RNG is not always random. Depending on how much you do, depending on the day, etc., etc., etc., I'm positive characters have "ZOS orders" to not get X item or mat, or not get anymore of that X mat, etc., for a wahile; when deconstructing, when farming, etc., while I'm also positive that some characters have more "luck" than others.

I agree 100% with the OP. Even when some people here say RNG is random, it's not, not always.
 

Dragonnord

Magdalina wrote: »

I don't think there is a luck attribute but RNG is never truly random. It's using some complex algorithm to get a semi-random number based on some starting value. The value could be the time of the "dice rolling" or/and something else like say the time of the character's creation or whatever(just guessing here). I'm pretty sure ESO's RNG is not just very far from random but very biased towards certain characters/scenarios. We've all probably noticed how often it gets stuck within the same pattern, for example it's pretty often that 3-4 people in the group of 4 get the same drop in same trait - way more often than it should be. It also appears pretty frequent that "rolling the dice" in quick succession several times in a row(for example, converting 10 Glass motif chapter fragments into a chapter) seems extremely likely to result with the very same result. I've gotten the very same chapter 3+ times in a row multiple times. The same chapter out of what...15 we have?..c'mon now.

It appears that whatever algorithm they are using is not good enough and still ends up relying too heavily on the starting values. I do know that some people appear to have just insane luck with just about everything whereas others don't, and this seems wayyyy more persistent to be a coincidence. Perhaps it's that the date of that character creation just happens to be some lucky number that when squeezed through the "RNG" algorithm ends up with a net positive way more often than not.

Just trying to make educated guesses here based on the little I know about how RNG works but at this point I am pretty convinced ESO's RNG is very much flawed and failing at its supposed goal - to give everyone equal chances at receiving something.

This. I'm positive it's exactly as you say @Magdalina. RNG is not completely random and there are several algorithms "controlling" our luck.
 
 

SirAndy

Tasear wrote: »

First thing you learn in programing is you can't program random..only psuedo random.

Actually, the first thing i learned in programming was how to correctly punch holes in little cardboard cards so the computer could make sense of them.

Drakkdjinn

ParaNostram wrote: »

The human mind can detect patterns too well, to the point in which we see them where they do not exist. There is no hidden luck attribute.

Nyx hounds would like a word with you.

Noisivid

Drakkdjinn wrote: »

ParaNostram wrote: »

The human mind can detect patterns too well, to the point in which we see them where they do not exist. There is no hidden luck attribute.

Nyx hounds would like a word with you.

would they, by any chance, be speaking about bad pseudo random number generators? I have that conversation all the time.

StormWylf

SirAndy wrote: »

Tasear wrote: »

First thing you learn in programing is you can't program random..only psuedo random.

Actually, the first thing i learned in programming was how to correctly punch holes in little cardboard cards so the computer could make sense of them.

RPG II by any chance.

Mojmir

Like a magicka based char who always gets drops that are tank/Stam based? Can confirm

SirAndy

StormWylf wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

Tasear wrote: »

First thing you learn in programing is you can't program random..only psuedo random.

Actually, the first thing i learned in programming was how to correctly punch holes in little cardboard cards so the computer could make sense of them.

RPG II by any chance.

Mostly Fortran and some Assembler.
At the time when i got started punch cards were already on their way out but my teacher made a point of teaching us how to use cards just so we knew how much easier things were for us.

We had a new TRS-80 (Model I) at school and i spent many long nights writing Assembly code on that thing.

Fun times ...

Diminish

My main mdk never gets perfect roe or psijic recipe fragments (to a point I opened a ticket on this about a year ago). I'm talking thousands of fish, and daily max level writs for a good 8 months and going empty handed. However, I leveled provisioning on an alt and that character gets them all the time. Something is broken or their are other factors at play.

Remag_Div

Your hidden Luck stat increases a little bit every time you spend money in the crown store.

N00BxV1

Mojmir wrote: »

Like a magicka based char who always gets drops that are tank/Stam based? Can confirm

I agree. My Magicka DK is always getting stamina/tank-related drops. Just because I'm a DK does not mean I want to Tank. Also it probably doesn't help that one of the sets I've been farming for is likely tuned with less drop chance than the others in that zone (Silks of the Sun).