Is it just me or does the 15% dodge chance happen all the time

WacArnold

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

Crowzer

It's weird because when I use shuffle, it's like 2% for me.

WacArnold

Crowzer wrote: »

It's weird because when I use shuffle, it's like 2% for me.

I used blur for a while on my magblade and it felt like a waste of a skill. I did not dodge as much as I thought I would.


I mean seriously has anyone fought someone that dodged all the time, maybe it's the rolls in between or something idk.

Xsorus

Pretty sure the shuffle bug exists some how and most of them are flat out cheating.

TheDoomsdayMonster

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

MalakithAlamahdi

Cuz it's RNG. Shuffle should be reworked into something else, it's a skill that has no place in a game that has Pvp.

leepalmer95

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

Well dodging twice in a row isn't very rare. 0.1725% So basically 1-2% or 1-2 times out of 100.

Its not likely to happen but its not impossible.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Glamdring

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

"While wearing Medium Armor, removes and grants immunity to snaring effects. Increases snare immunity duration by .5 seconds for each piece of Medium Armor equipped, up to 3.5 seconds."

Thats why shuffle users shuffle alot.

TheDoomsdayMonster

leepalmer95 wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

Well dodging twice in a row isn't very rare. 0.1725% So basically 1-2% or 1-2 times out of 100.

Its not likely to happen but its not impossible.

I just gave that as an example, but that sort of thing is commonplace with shuffle...

I can give you many examples of my attacks just flat out missing a large portion of the time, but there is no need to state them all as everyone here knows what I am talking about (the OP does for sure) and has experienced this 1st hand...

TheDoomsdayMonster

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

There is no bias on my part...

The eye test is good enough to confirm what I am experiencing; shuffle users "shuffle" much more than a 15% chance would seem to give, and I am not the only one experiencing this...

TheDoomsdayMonster

Glamdring wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

"While wearing Medium Armor, removes and grants immunity to snaring effects. Increases snare immunity duration by .5 seconds for each piece of Medium Armor equipped, up to 3.5 seconds."

Thats why shuffle users shuffle alot.

That's not the only reason...

Having an ability that passively allows you to completely ignore attacks (no matter how damaging they are) is even better than shielding as far as I can see...

Atleast I can beat the shield down; I cant beat shuffle down as I cant get certain abilities to reliably land on a shuffle user (they miss much more often than they hit)...

This ability forces you to cheese Shuffle users right back with abilities that do not miss like Purifying Light, Radiant Destruction, and Soul Strike...

Abilities like Reflective Light, Aedric Spear, Structured Entropy, and others like them simply cant reliably hit shuffle users...period.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

There is no bias on my part...

The eye test is good enough to confirm what I am experiencing; shuffle users "shuffle" much more than a 15% chance would seem to give, and I am not the only one experiencing this...

Someone didn't read the wiki page. Please do this.

Confirmation bias is different then personal bias, which is what you think it is, which is why you are taking it personally.

The way it works is the same for everyone, regardless of personal bias, it is in effect the fact that you are more likely to remember the "hits" and forget the "misses". Or in this case, the opposite. Think about how much time you put into the game, how many actual shuffle users you have played against, the fact is that it is possible for a player to dodge as much as it takes to make you "feel" they are unhittable do to the nature of the skills rng..

And no, eyes tests are not good enough.

TheDoomsdayMonster

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

There is no bias on my part...

The eye test is good enough to confirm what I am experiencing; shuffle users "shuffle" much more than a 15% chance would seem to give, and I am not the only one experiencing this...

Someone didn't read the wiki page. Please do this.

Confirmation bias is different then personal bias, which is what you think it is, which is why you are taking it personally.

The way it works is the same for everyone, regardless of personal bias, it is in effect the fact that you are more likely to remember the "hits" and forget the "misses". Or in this case, the opposite. Think about how much time you put into the game, how many actual shuffle users you have played against, the fact is that it is possible for a player to dodge as much as it takes to make you "feel" they are unhittable do to the nature of the skills rng..

And no, eyes tests are not good enough.

Oh I read the wiki page and I stand by what I am saying...

I am not looking for events that confirm what I already believe; I am not ignoring events that do not conform to my beliefs...

I know what I am looking at and I know the results of what I am seeing with an open eye; shuffle works more than the tool bar 15% chance indicates...period.

And yes, my eye tests are good enough; I can clearly see if more attacks are missing than are hitting...

I can see this very clearly...

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

There is no bias on my part...

The eye test is good enough to confirm what I am experiencing; shuffle users "shuffle" much more than a 15% chance would seem to give, and I am not the only one experiencing this...

Someone didn't read the wiki page. Please do this.

Confirmation bias is different then personal bias, which is what you think it is, which is why you are taking it personally.

The way it works is the same for everyone, regardless of personal bias, it is in effect the fact that you are more likely to remember the "hits" and forget the "misses". Or in this case, the opposite. Think about how much time you put into the game, how many actual shuffle users you have played against, the fact is that it is possible for a player to dodge as much as it takes to make you "feel" they are unhittable do to the nature of the skills rng..

And no, eyes tests are not good enough.

Oh I read the wiki page and I stand by what I am saying...

I am not looking for events that confirm what I already believe; I am not ignoring events that do not conform to my beliefs...

I know what I am looking at and I know the results of what I am seeing with an open eye; shuffle works more than the tool bar 15% chance indicates...period.

And yes, my eye tests are good enough; I can clearly see if more attacks are missing than are hitting...

I can see this very clearly...

You still don't understand how it works. It is not something you do on porpose. It is something everyone does and must be defended against by hard evidence. Not "feelings".

Also again, this is not a personal attack, no reason to take it as such.

No, eye tests are not good enough evidence, feelings are not good enough. They may be for you but to convince other people, you have to provide hard evidence, collected in a fair and balanced way as in have you recorded every fight that you have been in? Have you actually counted the hits and misses? Like in an organized, scientific manner? Because every time I have seen this topic brought up and someone does do the actual work of testing, it comes really close to the 15%, or rather 20% it used to be.

Docmandu

MalakithAlamahdi wrote: »

Cuz it's RNG. Shuffle should be reworked into something else, it's a skill that has no place in a game that has Pvp.

Path of Exile had a good solution for this.. where 10% would actually mean 10% of attacks evaded:

Evasion in PoE is not fully random.

Each entity in the world contains an 'evasion entropy' value, between 1 and 100. The higher this value is, the more likely they are to be hit by the next attack. The initial value is random.
Every time something attacks you, they calculate their chance to hit as a percentage. That value is added to your evasion entropy. If the result exceeds 100, you're hit, and 100 is subtracted from the value. If the value hasn't reached 100, you're not hit.

Before anyone starts clamouring that they're not getting their actual chance to hit/evade, let's examine this mechanic in a bit more detail. Take the simple example of 100% chance to hit. Since you always add 100 to the entropy, it'll always exceed 100, and thus always hit, which is correct. The case of 0% chance to hit can similarly be trivially shown to be correct.
So let's look at 50% chance to hit. Since the initial value is random from 1-100, there's a 50% chance that the initial entropy value is higher than 50%, in which case adding the 50 from chance to hit will exceed 100 and thus hit, and a 50% chance the value is 50% or less, in which case adding 50 will not exceed 100, and thus not hit. So the first hit has a 50% chance to hit, as it should.
The second hit also has a 50% chance to hit, but will never hit if the first one does - provided you're only getting hit by things with 50% chance to hit you, you'll evade every second attack, and be hit by the others.
Let's say the initial entropy was 42. The first hit increases this to 92, and misses. The second raises it to 142, hitting, and then subtracts 100 from the value, leaving it back at 42.
I'll leave other percentages as an exercise for the reader, but they all work out - if an attack has 25% chance to hit you, every fourth attack will hit, and so on.

This is the mechanic by which streakiness is removed from evasion - it removes the possibility of failing to evade happening to come up several times in a row due to bad luck. Each attack has the correct chance to hit, and will hit you just as often as you'd expect in the average case using a purely random system, but the possibility of occasional but devastating non-average results - such as being hit by four consecutive attacks with only 10% chance to hit each - have been eliminated.

-- source: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/11707/filter-account-type/staff/page/10#p748465


Anyway I think part of why shuffle seems to over perform, is that characters that use shuffle will also use dodge to evade attacks and that makes you immune to getting hit for a bit of time after the dodge (they even extended that time in the morrowind patch)... combine those 2 and you get people that can't be hit, especially if they have a rock to hug.

Docmandu

.. sigh.. double post... forum is as buggy as the actual game..

Magıc

I've had 4 abilities in a row dodged. My thoughts on it? Damn RNG... I've also dodged 6 abilities in a row, while only pressing shuffle once during that time. My thoughts in it? God bless RNG...

Because that is all it is. Everyone claims theres an exploit yet no proof. Every other exploit has never stayed quiet, neither would a shuffle exploit if it actually existed because as human beings we like to take every advantage we can and exploit it for as long as possible. People roll dodge, people hit shuffle multiple times for the snare immunity, it's just how it is, and add an RNG skill onto that and you get a skill that casuals claim is exploitable.

DeHei

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

In real this 15% must be higher. You can test it and do 100 attacks on a guy with shuffle and around 30 attacks will not hit.. if the skill really would just bring 15%, i think much guys wouldnt use it anymore..

leepalmer95

DeHei wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

In real this 15% must be higher. You can test it and do 100 attacks on a guy with shuffle and around 30 attacks will not hit.. if the skill really would just bring 15%, i think much guys wouldnt use it anymore..

Try testing more than 100 times.

Try 1000 or 10000.

Orchish

Nightblades with eternal hunt and infinite dodge is pure cancer in pvp. you hit one in every 10 attacks. Disgusting.

DeHei

the chance that 4 attacks dont hit in a row i 1/2000.
I heared from guys who had this 7times in a row.. this chance is really low 1/500000 like a little lottowin..
But this really happen to often..
15% is in reality every 6-7 attack. Its possible to dodge 3 attacks in a row but not so often like it is. When i make duell with this guys, there is allways 1 of 4 attacks minimum, which is dodged and my pressure is away. I am happy when i placed all of my skills and not 1 will be dodged and this feeling is just not possible if the 15% works right!

DeHei

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

Glamdring wrote: »

TheDoomsdayMonster wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

That is exactly my experience with people that use shuffle; they "shuffle" far, far, more than they should for something that should only occur 15% of the time...

They often feel unhittable...

I remember once there was a guy with shuffle up in the distance standing completely still and I threw 2 spears in a row at him; both just curved around him like it was nothing...

Shuffle has put several abilities that I'd otherwise use out of business; you almost can only use abilities that ignore shuffle to successfully hit people that are using this ability...

"While wearing Medium Armor, removes and grants immunity to snaring effects. Increases snare immunity duration by .5 seconds for each piece of Medium Armor equipped, up to 3.5 seconds."

Thats why shuffle users shuffle alot.

That's not the only reason...

Having an ability that passively allows you to completely ignore attacks (no matter how damaging they are) is even better than shielding as far as I can see...

Atleast I can beat the shield down; I cant beat shuffle down as I cant get certain abilities to reliably land on a shuffle user (they miss much more often than they hit)...

This ability forces you to cheese Shuffle users right back with abilities that do not miss like Purifying Light, Radiant Destruction, and Soul Strike...

Abilities like Reflective Light, Aedric Spear, Structured Entropy, and others like them simply cant reliably hit shuffle users...period.

I explain you my build. I use much skills, which hit allways + lightning-/healingstaff. Only skills which i need to hit are Degeneration, vampires Bane, elemental drain and the vampire drain. 60% of my attacks hit allways, because i try to use heavy attacks very often too, but its nearly not possible to hold more then 2 of these skills active on shuffle-user..

glavius

I have killed thousands and thousands in pvp, and not once have I run into someone I couldn't kill because he passively dodged a ton. If there is a dodge bug/exploit, I havent seen it yet. (all my damaging abilities can be dodged)

raasdal

Stop this nonsense already and go test it, if you feel it is overperforming.

I have done that myself, to clarify a number of questions i had, and i can tell you that it works as intended. People are not dodging more than 15% of your attacks.

Just remember, many attacks have multiple components that can be individually dodged.

Alucardo

I wouldn't say "all the time", but the RNG in this game is super iffy. Look at Selene for example. That's supposed to be 15%, but I can almost guarantee every opener a nightblade does will have a Selene proc in it. Velidreth is 20%, but that goes off every time it's basically off cooldown.
Yet when grinding for an item you want it never seems to drop. Random, or selective? You decide.

Magıc

Btw, Jules tested Shuffle (10,000 hits IIRC) and found it had a 18% proc chance BEFORE it was nerfed, when it was supposed to be 20%.

So, unless someone plans to test 10,000 hits again, and if someone is willing to prove a shuffle exploit exists, it's working as intended and RNG just doesn't favour you like it doesn't favour me with my vMA drops.

Izaki

People always ask me in duels whether I use Shuffle or not on my Stamina NB. I don't run Shuffle in a duel (that almost as dirty as running Viper, Troll King, Rearming Trap or Selene). I just watch my opponent and whenever he's got a nuke or a combo coming, I either dodge or block it, even if it means counting light attacks before a Spectral Bow proc or watching the hands of a Sorc to see if a Frag procced or not. I had a 6 minute duel with a Magicka Sorc and he hasn't landed a single Frag on me unless he had me stunned with Dawnbreaker beforehand @OGNZ3 . Most combos are fairly predictable, so you just need to learn to "feel them coming" and dodge at exactly the right time (which indeed does give the impression of dodging every single attack).

Izaki

DeHei wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

In real this 15% must be higher. You can test it and do 100 attacks on a guy with shuffle and around 30 attacks will not hit.. if the skill really would just bring 15%, i think much guys wouldnt use it anymore..

Most people don't use Shuffle for the 15% Dodge Chance. They use it for the Snare removal and the Snare immunity. There are only 3 skills in the game that do this: Retreating Manœuvres, Shuffle and Forward Momentum. You can't use Retreating Manoeuvers because of the high stamina cost, you can't use Forward Momentum because there's a high chance you're using Rally as your burst heal, so that only leaves Shuffle.

Izaki

Orchish wrote: »

Nightblades with eternal hunt and infinite dodge is pure cancer in pvp. you hit one in every 10 attacks. Disgusting.

We have a very different definition of cancer I think...

DeHei

IzakiBrotherSs wrote: »

People always ask me in duels whether I use Shuffle or not on my Stamina NB. I don't run Shuffle in a duel (that almost as dirty as running Viper, Troll King, Rearming Trap or Selene). I just watch my opponent and whenever he's got a nuke or a combo coming, I either dodge or block it, even if it means counting light attacks before a Spectral Bow proc or watching the hands of a Sorc to see if a Frag procced or not. I had a 6 minute duel with a Magicka Sorc and he hasn't landed a single Frag on me unless he had me stunned with Dawnbreaker beforehand @OGNZ3 . Most combos are fairly predictable, so you just need to learn to "feel them coming" and dodge at exactly the right time (which indeed does give the impression of dodging every single attack).

how much can i dodge as Magicka player?? You see the problem?

IzakiBrotherSs wrote: »

DeHei wrote: »

WacArnold wrote: »

I swear some people seem to dodge every attack. Am I understanding this wrong or something it's a 15% chance to dodge right? Just crazy how 15% seems to happen 3 or 4 times in a row.

In real this 15% must be higher. You can test it and do 100 attacks on a guy with shuffle and around 30 attacks will not hit.. if the skill really would just bring 15%, i think much guys wouldnt use it anymore..

Most people don't use Shuffle for the 15% Dodge Chance. They use it for the Snare removal and the Snare immunity. There are only 3 skills in the game that do this: Retreating Manœuvres, Shuffle and Forward Momentum. You can't use Retreating Manoeuvers because of the high stamina cost, you can't use Forward Momentum because there's a high chance you're using Rally as your burst heal, so that only leaves Shuffle.

I started to use it for 15% Damage reduction in PvP. 15% is much.. With more experience with these skill, i never want to miss it. Then i could morph to shuffle and my comment directly after morphing it:" Wtf, .. this skill is as much broken as i thought!"
So pls talk not to me, that the major evasion buff isnt strong enough to use it just for that!...