Playing the Slot Machine - or Why RNG Works: The Variable Ratio Schedule Explained

Carbonised

As a clinical psychologist, one of my main interests has been behavioural dynamics such as neuroeconomics. For anyone interested in the process of descision making, I would also highly recommend reading the book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahnemann. The book explains in detail many of the behavioural psychological phenomenon involved in descision making, which permeates so many areas of our culture, including MMORPG gaming design.

Now, why does this discussion belong on an ESO forum? In short, this is the explanation of RNG - and why it works. Browse the forum discussions, and you inevitably come across a multitude of topics regarding RNG. RNG for trait drops, for vMA weapons, for legendary material drops etc. RNG is a huge part of this game, and RNG is a topic that creates high tension and emotional responses by many people, and rightly so.

Although, RNG (Random Number Generator) is really not the term we should use for this phenomenon, the subject itself is called the Variable Ratio Schedule (VRS), and I will go into explanation on that a moment later in this post.

First of all, to see the relevance of VRS, let's see at the elements of chance that permeate ESO. As most people will know, we have a few desirable traits, namely Divines and to some extent Impenetrable and a few others, and a bunch of undesirable traits, such as Prosperous and Training and a few others (at least from an endgame perspective). This means that there is random chance associated with pretty much every item drop in the game.
Will an item drop at all? Will it be for the slot I need, or for a slot I do not need? Will it have the trait I need or will it not? This is a huge part of set farming and of vMA farming. There you also have the reason why all of this is Bind on Pickup, and why all dungeon and trial sets were made Bind on Pickup with One Tamriel update. If items were not bound, there would be a market to buy and sell, thus no VRS.
Look at crafting. Harvest a node, and you have a chance for your harvest pasisve to kick on and double the amount. Chance. You have a chance to get Nirncruxes, of the DLC styling mats, or you have a chance not to get any. Refine your materials, and the output number of refined mats is determined by chance. Even more important, the tempers, especially legendary gold tempers, are purely by chance. Fishing is chance. Filleting fish for Perfect Roe is chance. Decon an item, and the tempers and style mats you receive is chance.
Hand in daily quests, and whether you get the reward (such as set pieces or motif pieces) you need or simply trash, again chance.
Doing killings in DB gives you the style mat. By chance. The loot you get from the dead victims is also chance.
Think about loot boxes. Go to Cyrodiil or Imperial City and open boxes for your PvP sets, it's all chance.
In short, every time we play ESO, a huge part of our game is rolling the dice and praying for luck, or playing the slot machine, if you will.

In come the Crown Crates. Playing ESO before Crown Crates was a game full of chance, but at worst you could only lose the time spent (or wasted). With Crown Crates things changed. Now chance included losing real life money, and many people were in an uproar. Buying and opening Crown Crates is nothing more than playing the roulette or the slot machine. Sure, the package is nicer, more fancy, but the mechanics are exactly the same. Just like you use 'chips' in the casino in order to mask the value of - and emotions connected to - real life money, we here call them 'Crowns'. You might get lucky and get that awesome mount in your first handful of crates, or you might spend a fortune and still not get it. As clever people have shown, the average price for these mounts when you do the statistics, is dollars in the three figures.

So why do they do this? Why do they add Crown Crates to the game even with the amount of resistance it met? Why do they insist on loot boxes instead of selling items for a flat amount? Why do they insist on vMA random grinds instead of introducing a token system that people have asked for for an eternity? Why keep the random traits on gear and not be open to the idea of trait changing?
The short answer is "because it works".

In order to understand why it works, we need to introduce the Variable Ratio Schedule, and contrast it with the Fixed Ratio Schedule. This article does a thorough and excellent job of explaining just that.
I would recommend you read it, and thereby gain some insight into basic behavioural psychology.
Summing the conclusion form the article up, there are fundamentally only two ways of rewarding players in a video game, including MMORPGs such as ESO. A slow and steady progression towards clear set goals, which is the Fixed Ratio Schedule, or the uncertainty, and thrilling dance with Lady Luck, that is the Variable Ratio Schale.
In short, the Fixed Ratio Schedule provides full overview of your progression and the effort required to reach the next tier or goal. Think tokens, XP levels. When you know you have to kill X mobs to get X item, or kill X mobs to reach X level, then it's a fixed ratio.
Whenever the outcome of your effort is uncertain, and the reward is kept behind walls of chance and random number generators, that is the Variable Ratio Schedule. You might get lucky and get what you want in a couple of first tries, or you might get unlucky and sink an awful lot of time, effort and ressources into the project, and still not be rewarded with your prize (though we, as humans, think rather little about this possible outcome).

Now, the somewhat disheartening part of this whole post is that the Variable Ratio Schedule, i.e. chance, works. Scientific studies ever since Skinner, back in the 60s, have shown that VRS is a powerful tool in addictive behaviour, such as repeated patterns in the hope of rewards. The FRS has a higher probability of behavior extinction - which in this context would mean quitting the game, or at leats playing something else instead.
We as humans, along with animals tested on, show a preference for the VRS as opposed to the FRS. When a goal or a level has been reached in the FRS, we know we have a long way to go to reach the next level, or next tier, and we start to lose motivation. In the VRS, however, the uncertainty principle pushes people ever onwards, driven by vague and tantilizing fantasies about possible rewards.

The people designing MMORPGs, including our own ESO dev team, is of course aware of this. The sheer number of RNG events governing the ESO experience proves clear as day that the developers had the Variable Ratio Schedule in mind when making this game, and that they adhere strictly to this principle going onwards as well, both in designing the game and in expanding their Crown Store.
This is why we will never see trait exchange (unless walled off by even more RNG events, or possibly Crown Store purchases), why we will never see vMA tokens, why we will probably see a movement towards more Bind on Pickup, and why we have seen the push for Crown Crates despite the community's distaste and dislike for this obvious gambling sham.

I have tried to present the topic of the Variable Ratio Schedule and the Fixed Ratio Schedule, and how it pertains to the fundamental design of ESO, in a somewhat sober and neutral manner. However, I will not hide my personal opinion and belief that ESO is taking this principle far too extreme. I myself am no gambler. I dislike gambling, I dislike the VRS, and I tend to shy away from most activities that rely heavily on the element of chance. In video games, there needs to be a small element of chance. There needs to be something surprising and random, to keep us engaged and to avoid too much routine. However, this needs to be a small element of the experience, this needs to be like spice, carefully applied to enhance the dish.
When you build an entire gaming experience around the element of VRS, you are playing on the basal level of human behaviour dynamics. You are little better than the tobacco industry of yore, adding chemicals and other compounds to their product to maliciously and purposely raise the possibility of addiction.

When MMORPG designers intentionally design the game in such a way as to play on all the strings in the neuroeconomical book of decision making, I feel manipulated, I feel violated and I am left with a very sour taste in my mouth. I am indeed a customer, and you are indeed a business whose primary goal is to relieve me ow as much of my money as I am willing to part with. That does not mean you have to throw every ounce of ethics out the window.

Internet addiction has already been included in the appendix of the DSM psychiatric diagnostic manual of mental illnesses in the United States. The only recognized condition alongside substance abuse and Ludomania (gambling addiction). MMORPGs are already sated with many elements that promote addiction, such as the social element, the neverending game with no clear 'Game Over' and many others. There is really no need to add real gambling into that already problematic mix, such as the slot machine mechanics of the VRS.

You, as a gaming company and as online gaming designers, have an ethical responsibility towards your customers and towards the products you provide. This ethical responsibility may also turn into a legal one, as more and more people become aware of the mental health issues involved in online gaming today. Much like the tobacco industry had to stand responsible for their abhorable and cynical business strategies before, you may face the same issues as time progresses.
And no less, much as behavioural psychology provides you with tools to exploit the human nature and the way our brains are designed, psychology also provides people with the necessary knowledge and wisdom to see through these ploys and exploitations, and hopefully make the necessary precautions in order to not get tangled up in this web of addiction and deliberate exploitation. There is also such a thing as "too much", and behavioural studies show that people, and animals, who feel cheated, punished or given paltry rewards for their sacrifices, turn to aggression and behaviour extinction.

Wollust

tl;dr

Cherryblossom

Interesting read.

However doesn't stop RNG annoying the hell out of me.

Cavarka

For the record, DSM is a pretty poor way of justifying anything. Diagnosis by vote, that is aside from its glorified history of homosexuality being listed as mental disorder or a sexual disturbance. Given time the DSM will have us all categorised, supported by double coded psychology tests.

That aside you make some fair points. But personal responsibility is king. Otherwise you are saying 'The poor unwashed masses are being taken advantage of and they can't help themselves.' People have a responsibility to educate themselves and to monitor and reflect on their behaviour, adapting it as need be.

Kuroinu

Well said OP. I especially like the part where you make the connection of "crowns" to casino "chips" and the crates to slot machines, nailed it. Some MMOs can't be honest, like they're scared of honesty. Because when you see the beast behind the systems, it's disgusting.

There are many interesting things in ESO that I enjoy, but the "Crown Store" is becoming far more apart of this game than I care for. I've said it before, it doesn't matter how awesome the development team does and creates these great zones and overcomes failed systems with new ideas(One Tamriel). Everything they do is soon tainted by Crown Store shenanigans.

Carbonised

Cavarka wrote: »

For the record, DSM is a pretty poor way of justifying anything. Diagnosis by vote, that is aside from its glorified history of homosexuality being listed as mental disorder or a sexual disturbance. Given time the DSM will have us all categorised, supported by double coded psychology tests.

That aside you make some fair points. But personal responsibility is king. Otherwise you are saying 'The poor unwashed masses are being taken advantage of and they can't help themselves.' People have a responsibility to educate themselves and to monitor and reflect on their behaviour, adapting it as need be.

ad 1) I do agree about the DSM. There are many problems with the DSM, but it is beyond this topic to discuss them (and I would rather we stay on topic to avoid any thread closing).

ad 2) Again, an interesting discussion, but slightly off topic. I do believe in personal responsibility, I am actually very liberal in persuasion (clarification: liberal here in EU means pro-choice and less legislation. As opposed to the way 'liberal' is used over there in the States).

To get on topic: As it pertains to MMOs, and ESO in this case, I do believe we all have a personal responsibility. I myself am very aware of the whole addiction issue, and I have refused to buy ane Con Crates. Even if I do recognize many of these psychological schemes devoted to stealing away my time and money, I do still fall prey to them now and again. And I do believe that gaming companies such as ZOS do have an ethical responsibility - and should have a legal responsibility - to not provide services and products to their customers for the sole purpose of getting people addicted and waste more money.

Fundamentally, I believe that having laudable etichs and providing a good product to your customers, as well as being a successful company, are not mutually exclusive goals. The Witcher and CD Projekt RED being a prime example of this.

I wish ZOS and ESO (and to some extent Bethesda) would focus more on making good games, and I'm sure their sales would rise too. Right now, it seems like ZOS is more focused on psychological tactics in order to squeeze out every penny from their player base, making me - and others - feel like little more than cattle that need to be milked every morning and evening.

maboleth

Interesting read Carbonated. However, note that crown crates were introduced when none of DLC came out. Company has to make money. As ZOS refused to use pay-to-win model - rightly so, a huge thank you for that - they needed to make an additional income. Cosmetic stuff was there, but that alone couldn't create a huge boost. Thus, crown crates were created. People complained, but once CC novelty wore off and became part of the whole system, only addicted ones with big pockets would still massively use it. But more importantly, it made a big profit for a company when none of new payable DLC was out.

Now, with Housing & base game patch, there will be a second huge update WITHOUT a DLC. Again, a company as big as ZOS/BETH invests heavily and has to return and make money. Naturally they will charge houses & furniture and other stuff for those impatient enough to craft and buy them in-game. And don't those Crowns will be cheap!
Although you can say neuroeconomics is involved in Ccrates, sometimes, I think, is just a content that makes the most money when it's needed. Just like the housing stuff for the next patch.

On a second note, I *do* like a RNG element. It's like throwing a die in RPG and other board games. It's a luck but also a fair way to reach somewhere or get something in games. Yes sometimes it frustrates, sometimes is not what we wanted, but it also rewards, is totally random and looks more real-life to me. Completing vMA with a token, as you said, would be fixed and offer no thrill. For me it's more natural not to know what the game will put in those reward boxes, than hand in a token a get my sought reward. Long term, it's also a win-win situation, because I will be playing and mastering vMA for a long time - longer than just getting a known weapons. This was just a small example, but applies to every loot out there.

UntrustedExistenz

Now I know the reason of my bad luck at every aspect of the game!
I just need to praise VRSgods, not RNG. Need to find good offering!

Now serious. Carbonised, your post was very interesting and now I know more about game system and even myself.
And big thanks for sharing title of book I will read as fast as I can

Carbonised

maboleth wrote: »

Interesting read Carbonated. However, note that crown crates were introduced when none of DLC came out. Company has to make money. As ZOS refused to use pay-to-win model - rightly so, a huge thank you for that - they needed to make an additional income. Cosmetic stuff was there, but that alone couldn't create a huge boost. Thus, crown crates were created. People complained, but once CC novelty wore off and became part of the whole system, only addicted ones with big pockets would still massively use it. But more importantly, it made a big profit for a company when none of new payable DLC was out.

Now, with Housing & base game patch, there will be a second huge update WITHOUT a DLC. Again, a company as big as ZOS/BETH invests heavily and has to return and make money. Naturally they will charge houses & furniture and other stuff. And don't expect it will be cheap!
Although you can say neuroeconomics is involved in Ccrates, sometimes, I think, is just a content that makes the most money when it's needed. Just like the housing stuff for the next patch.

On a second note, I *do* like a RNG element. It's like throwing a die in RPG and other board games. It's a luck but also a fair way to reach somewhere or get something in games. Yes sometimes it frustrates, sometimes is not what we wanted, but it also rewards, is totally random and looks more real-life to me. Completing vMA with a token, as you said, would be fixed and offer no thrill. For me it's more natural not to know what the game will put in those reward boxes, than hand in a token a get my sought reward. Long term, it's also a win-win situation, because I will be playing and mastering vMA for a long time - longer than just getting a known weapons. This was just a small example, but applies to every loot out there.

Thank you for your reply. Well you are correct, ZOS' agenda is pretty much to earn money, and I guess my discussion here is meant as a contribution as to if it should be commendable and acceptabled to earn this money in every way possible, for every cost or every price.

I believe most people's problem with Con Crates was the fact that this is just as much gambling as playing the slot machine. Had they released all the Crown mounts and cosmetics as usual Crown Store items, people would not have been in such an uproar. Now I'm a psychologist, not a marketing emplyee, so I do not know for certain whether selling these cosmetics as part of a random scheme is indeed more profitable than selling them for a set price. I would think the random scheme is more profitable, due to the way our cognitive systems work, but then again - a lot of people were put off my the whole scam, me included, and have refused to participate in it. So it's sort of a double edged sword,

You argue that Con Crates and housing are necessary to generate money, when there is no DLC provided. Well, the problem here is the lack of DLC as I see it. Let's look at it from a business perspective. Either we can spend a large amount of money paying writers, voice actors, modellers and coders to make a full fledged DLC with all the bells and whistles, sell it for like 3-4K Crowns max, and reap the profits. OR we could employ 1-2 modellers to reskin a couple of popular mounts and pets, pack them in a slot machine disguised in fancy packing, and reap the same amount of money, for a fraction of the cost. Or take the elk mount fiasko.

In my opinion, that is money talking, right there. Instead of providing us with a more enjoyable gaming experience, instead of adding new content and DLCs, we're given gimmicks and cosmetics, of which most of it has to be obtained by microtransactions (funny how the sum of all these microtransactions by far outweigh the cost of an actual AAA PC game at release, huh). I can see why they do it, I can see the reasoning behind it, but do I agree with it, do I think it's a practise that should be applauded? No, not by a long stretch.

As for the VRS element in the base game, I do agree with you, to some extent, as I write in my OP. Fun and amusing games do have an element of VRS to provide surprise and amusement. However, if you look at old school classics such as Final Fantasy, Baldur's Gate series, Neverwinter Nights series, and even the Elder Scrolls series, the RNG element has not been in rewards, but in gameplay, such as damage. Your rolling of the die in DnD games is a prime example. You go in combat with the legendary dragon, and you have an element of RNG in terms of your skills and your damage done. You might get lucky - it might get lucky. However, there is NOT an element of VRS in these games, since the rewards are not random, but certain. You kill the legendary dragon? You know it has the Holy Avenger +5 sword you want. That is not chance, that is certainty.

Modern RPG games has introduced the VRS element when it comes to rewards, achievements and gear. That is a new thing. MMOs like ESO have taken this principle even further, to the point we have to day in ESO, where pretty much every action that matters is VRS. With very few exceptions, all the endgame content in ESO today is governed by VRS.
And it is so, because of what I have written in the OP, because game devs know that VRS is the most effective tool to keeping you and me hooked in their game, slavering away in front of the screen and hopefully spending an awful lot of money at the same time. That is cynical, that is exploitation, and it does not provide an enjoyable gaming experience as I see it.

Destyran

Tl:dr have 2800 soul gems from farming mothers sorrow swords. Not one. Eat my ass rngsus

Carbonised

UntrustedExistenz wrote: »

Now I know the reason of my bad luck at every aspect of the game!
I just need to praise VRSgods, not RNG. Need to find good offering!

Now serious. Carbonised, your post was very interesting and now I know more about game system and even myself.
And big thanks for sharing title of book I will read as fast as I can

One of the ancient Greek maxims found at the Oracle of Delphi, was "Know thyself."

The more we know about what mechanisms and processes that drive ourselves, and other human beings, the more liberated we will become from them. That has been a foundation of western philosophy since Plato, and also psychology.

At least when we truly know the ramifications of what we get ourselves involved in, we can make an informed consent to do so or to abstain from it.

You're welcome, and enjoy the book, it's a really good read

EnemyOfDaState

ZOS is actually worse then normal gambling because they weight the possible outcomes. The fact that training and prosperous have a much higher drop rate would be like playing a game of roulette betting on black and then the house decides to turn all but one of the black slots red.

Vildebill

Interesting reading indeed, hopefully more people will realize that ZOS seems to have specialized in full RNG addictive systems to keep players here. Maybe management comes from the casino business?

mobyvixen

maboleth wrote: »

Interesting read Carbonated. However, note that crown crates were introduced when none of DLC came out. Company has to make money. As ZOS refused to use pay-to-win model - rightly so, a huge thank you for that - they needed to make an additional income. Cosmetic stuff was there, but that alone couldn't create a huge boost. Thus, crown crates were created. People complained, but once CC novelty wore off and became part of the whole system, only addicted ones with big pockets would still massively use it. But more importantly, it made a big profit for a company when none of new payable DLC was out.

I don't think you know anybody addicted to gambling....just for the record most do not have BIG pockets which is a huge part of the problem. Often times they come into an extra $20 and rather than spend it on something practical that they really ned their addiction kicks and they gamble it away.

maboleth

Carbonised wrote: »

I believe most people's problem with Con Crates was the fact that this is just as much gambling as playing the slot machine. Had they released all the Crown mounts and cosmetics as usual Crown Store items, people would not have been in such an uproar. Now I'm a psychologist, not a marketing emplyee, so I do not know for certain whether selling these cosmetics as part of a random scheme is indeed more profitable than selling them for a set price. I would think the random scheme is more profitable, due to the way our cognitive systems work, but then again - a lot of people were put off my the whole scam, me included, and have refused to participate in it. So it's sort of a double edged sword,

The truth is, nobody except ZOS knows how much CCs were bought and used. I think a lot, considering all those hats and rock mounts people wear and use in Cyrodiil.

I'm seeing CC more like a Kinder Surprise egg than a slot machine. You buy a Kinder egg from a certain collection, trying to complete the set of hand-painted figures. But you don't know what toy you'll get, whether you will complete your collection, get duplicates or receive some totally trash toy, but you will be rewarded. Further, in ESO if you are rewarded twice with the same item, you can trade it for gems to buy something you really like. If you didn't get anything useful, well, like Kinder Surprise, you will have to buy another egg/ticket to try your luck. Unlike slot machines where you play to earn money, usually ending up having nothing. Not even that trash toy or a magicka potion.

Carbonised wrote: »

You argue that Con Crates and housing are necessary to generate money, when there is no DLC provided. Well, the problem here is the lack of DLC as I see it. Let's look at it from a business perspective. Either we can spend a large amount of money paying writers, voice actors, modellers and coders to make a full fledged DLC with all the bells and whistles, sell it for like 3-4K Crowns max, and reap the profits. OR we could employ 1-2 modellers to reskin a couple of popular mounts and pets, pack them in a slot machine disguised in fancy packing, and reap the same amount of money, for a fraction of the cost. Or take the elk mount fiasko.
In my opinion, that is money talking, right there. Instead of providing us with a more enjoyable gaming experience, instead of adding new content and DLCs, we're given gimmicks and cosmetics, of which most of it has to be obtained by microtransactions (funny how the sum of all these microtransactions by far outweigh the cost of an actual AAA PC game at release, huh). I can see why they do it, I can see the reasoning behind it, but do I agree with it, do I think it's a practise that should be applauded? No, not by a long stretch.

Actually you are wrong here. Besides many bug fixes and improvements, the amount of work that went into Housing is huge. Ridiculously huge. You can say you don't care for housing, but you can't deny that devs put so much effort, time and resources to make it possible and huge. To make the game more complete and enjoyable experience.
And what's best - ZOS is giving it for free for everyone. You buy houses with game gold and craft furniture with game items. The catch here is it will take time, lots of time to earn, buy, craft, decorate and furnish your home. Lots of people will turn to Crowns to speed up the process. I probably won't because I don't rush anywhere. It's a game and I have no problem crafting & decorating for months. But ZOS have to pay their developers that put their time & energy for this. Their approach for making money here is very nice and forgiving. Actually I'm positively surprised they managed to pull this off like this.

Carbonised wrote: »

However, if you look at old school classics such as Final Fantasy, Baldur's Gate series, Neverwinter Nights series, and even the Elder Scrolls series, the RNG element has not been in rewards, but in gameplay, such as damage. Your rolling of the die in DnD games is a prime example. You go in combat with the legendary dragon, and you have an element of RNG in terms of your skills and your damage done. You might get lucky - it might get lucky. However, there is NOT an element of VRS in these games, since the rewards are not random, but certain. You kill the legendary dragon? You know it has the Holy Avenger +5 sword you want. That is not chance, that is certainty.

I didn't know that, you're right there about those games. But I do know that in roguelike games like Angband and all its variants, the items you get are totally RNG based. Certain enemies and floors *can* give you certain artifacts and rewards, but it's not 100% guaranteed - it's all RNG. Even dungeons themselves are randomly generated.

JamilaRaj

maboleth wrote: »

I didn't know that, you're right there about those games. But I do know that in roguelike games like Angband and all its variants, the items you get are totally RNG based. Certain enemies and floors *can* give you certain artifacts and rewards, but it's not 100% guaranteed - it's all RNG. Even dungeons themselves are randomly generated.

Randomized dungeons do or may improve gameplay however. That is what you would expect from a game; that it is fun to play, and if it is, your time is not wasted. If done particularly well, a dungeon every time challenging as though it was new (because it is) would not even need rewards, because it would be gripping enough, well worth playing for dungeon alone.
So that is imo a valid method of making some content replayable. If you extend replayability of some dungeon by randomizing rewards (also randomizing value of rewards), not the dungeon, and augment it with BoP, you waste players' time; they sought, say, intriguing combat, but you tricked them into playing lottery.

Carbonised

@maboleth

Part of the addictive nature of MMOs is the clear and immediate reward MMOs offer you, which play directly into the brain's Dopamine reward systems.

In an MMO, when the bos drops and you loot the remains, when you put your undaunted key into the chest, when you finish the vMA run and receive your reward - you immediately know whether you got a good reward or rubbish. Negative or positive reinforcement. The reward is also immediately contingent upon the action that triggered it.

These qualities are very powerful motivators for us as human beings, and they are very rarely found in real life. Say, in your work space, in your educational system, or even in your social life. The only analogies that fit the recipe are actually gambling and substance abuse.

Randomness itself has always been a part of the gaming experience, and broader in most parts of play. However, there is a vast difference in the randomness and chance elements that were part of early gaming, for instance the roll of die in the early DnD RPGs, for damage, for hit points, for pretty much everything - and then the randomness as part of a reward doctrine that is supposed to keep you hooked on an activity for as long as possible.

Randomness can be fun. Many old DnD players recall having to deal with bad dice at some point, and getting something amusing out of it. Or the feeling when you got lucky and crit the boss just as you were about to die to him, or that eternal doomed roll of 1 on a 100 sided dice. Random dungeon design is also fun and amusing, and we have seen the allure of that in games such as No Man's Sky (though poorly executed).

Now look at ESO. There is very little randomness at play in the gameplay, all abilities have set damage, unvariable, monsters do a definitely set amount of damage, always. Only mitigated by your own stats and actions. The gameplay of ESO is completely stripped from chance and randomess, with the exclusion of crit possibility in PvP.
Everything that provides a reward, however, is entirely wrapped in chance, variability and probability. It is the rewards provided that are dealt to us by chance, simply because ZOS knows that is the system that provides us with the most motivation to keep grinding their content endlessly.

ZOS and ESO are of course not the only ones using this doctrine to keep players doing their content and playing their game. Without much experience in the MMO side of gaming, I would believe that this is the norm rather than the exception, just as the norm has moved from subscription financed online games to those governed by microtransactions and cash shops.
Why? Because it is efficient, because it works, and because science (in this case psychology and economics) tells them so.

Cavarka

I love RNG within the game, I agree that crown crates are over the top, that has been well covered before, Zos has a moral obligation to publish the odds.

Are you suggesting RNG within the game is also a negative?

Carbonised

Cavarka wrote: »

I love RNG within the game, I agree that crown crates are over the top, that has been well covered before, Zos has a moral obligation to publish the odds.

Are you suggesting RNG within the game is also a negative?

Nope. Read my post right above yours (maybe you missed it), I think randomness and chance can be a great part of gaming - it is specifically the 100 % reliance on chance and randomness in handing out rewards, such as crafting mats and loot and gear, that I disagree with.

Considering that we get plenty of people complaining about RNG and vMA reward and traits, I think it's fairly easy to conclude that the VRS doctrine is quite unpopular and unwanted in the scale it is being used here in ESO.

On the other hand, it works and it accomplishes what it's there to do, which is why we keep grinding away even as we moan about it.

WhiteMage

You are a smart person, OP. Please be my friend.

Have to drive, any constructive replies will be at a later time.

SanderBuraas

Moved on from threads of complaints? In reply to the article, rng may be a viable aspect of the game, but it is not healthy. Players are willing to pay for fluff with direct purchases, yet crown crates were introduced. The game is financed by subscriptions, the crown store and merchandise, yet crown crates were added.

Gamle boxes may not be game-breaking, but they surely are a slap in the face.

Carbonised

WhiteMage wrote: »

You are a smart person, OP. Please be my friend.

Have to drive, any constructive replies will be at a later time.

Thank you mate. I believe we just did a dungeon run yesterday evening in a PUG. Quite a coindicende huh

Agalloch

Very interesting reading OP ! And you are right!

There is too much RNG in ESO besides it is an exceptional MMO.

The other problem is even the ZOS 's answers to the community are a little bit based on rng . They forgot to add all the important patch notes almost every time ( last time they forgot to add the dual wield nerf on the pts) making you to think they are randomly generated ....Yes ..search the history of the patch notes and you will see .

Other strange problems are happening also from time to time...Remember that forced maintenance in a saturday..made only to implement Aetheric Cipher & Aetherial Dust? And after a few days they added a fix for it because no one saw them dropped.

Anyway..since then I never saw 1 piece of these things dropping for me.

And now about last adjustments to the game.

They promised us DLCs every quarter. Last content added was Shadow Of The Hist DLC in August 2016!!

All that come after that was revamped content.....

I am sure that is more easy to implement crown crates, housing simulation ( but without storage ..seriously??) than new zones, quests, dungeons, improvements to PVP etc..

All is made around Crown Store since Shadow of the Hist dlc... Yes..you can obtain these items in the game ..but this process is very hard . Look at PTS and you will see. So for many players addicted to housing will be easier to buy furnished houses from the Crown Store .

Why they don't add storage in houses ?? I think you know the answer. This is the first MMO where I see a house system without storage . More than 2000 items ....will arrive in game with Homstead ....and crafting bag will become a must have.

Many will tell me they must gain money. Ok I agree with you...but they must attract more players and also gain money by providing NEW CONTENT not recycling the existing one .

I know many important members of ZOS already left. ( think only at Nicholas "The Konk" Konkle ( who was behind spell crafting ) ..yes this could be the reason they delayed so much the spell crafting system)...but many others left also) .and probably they have financial difficulties but they need to keep their promises and this will make ESO rise .

I remember they had a 200 milion USD budget or am I wrong?


If they will provide less rng for some aspects in the game ( for example VMA), remove BOP from dungeons and trials..reintroduce the old crafting nodes system I think this will be a good start ...again

ESO was and is a great MMO ..but I'm afraid for its future. Many nerfs are coming , also they are bringing the top ceiling DOWN...so I hope ESO to not become from one of the best MMOs in the history ...a mediocre Call Of Duty with housing simulator and Casino games.


English is not my native language.

Ourorboros

Seems like the perfect thread for my favorite RNG image:

Carbonised

Browsing further along the topic of this discussion, I came upon a video describing effectively why the Skinner Box method of operant conditioning, especially along the veins of the Variable Schedule, may turn out to be counter productive in the long run, despite its short term compulsion of behaviour. Here it is.

This is a video about RPGs in general, and especially MMORPGs in particular, but it also pertains to most if not all elements of ESO, considering just how much the operant conditioning of the variable schedule that is used within ESO.

I especially like how the video ends with offering other suggestions as how to make games engaging and rewarding, without simply relying on cheap and lazy designs to maximise operant conditioning button pushing.

This ties directly into the sequel for the video - Progression Systems - and how to avoid the Skinner box.

I especially like how he explains that in order for a game, and the progression systems within the game, to be a success, there has to be coherence between the developer's expectations of what is the progression and the players'.
The example given, for when this mismatches, is when the developers' idea of the progression is along the dimension of time, whereas the players' progression is along the dimension of effort.

Is this not exactly why devs of ESO believe the vMA reward systemt "works as intended", whereas players are constantly in an uproar about having spent 200-300 runs of vMA and still not having obtained their weapon in their desired trait? The players think they are rewarded for effort, that is, skill and completion, whereas the devs believe they should be rewarded for time spent/sunk/wasted into the repeated actions - thus more time spent = more chance for reward.

And finally, some insights into why, as a general rule, people are quite inefficient in judging their possibility for best outcome when chance is introduced as an element. Again, think vMA weapons, sharpened weapons from BoP sets in trials and dungeons, and even gold temper refinement.

Enjoy.

zyk

This has been my view for a long time.

I want to say to ZOS employees: I think 99% of you are awesome and among the best at what you do.

However, I believe almost all of my issues with ESO stem from the poor ethics of ZOS leadership. This extends beyond the the slot machine derived game systems and cash gambling boxes to how ZOS has handled updates and support -- especially for AvA.

I think it's awful that ZOS leadership is okay with the fact that the statistical outliers of their systems mean that many extremely hard working people will never complete their goal of a specific build despite putting forth a great effort to collect the necessary items.

Aistlaw

Thank you @Carbonised for sharing your personal opinion and the knowledge of basic behaviorism. I study the social program here in Sweden and we have the subject psychology as one of many courses for that.

It's amazing how I could stumble across this not only in real life but also in games such as ESO. I agree with what you are saying and you are making a good point here:

There needs to be something surprising and random, to keep us engaged and to avoid too much routine. However, this needs to be a small element of the experience, this needs to be like spice, carefully applied to enhance the dish.

Because you are giving me the vibe, that there needs to be relativity, and this is something I think everyone needs to understand to a certain degree, where you can speak open about it. I think games such as ESO has gotten off on the wrong foot - not to knock it down, I think the game has qualities that are unique and positive. But as you are indicating:

When you build an entire gaming experience around the element of VRS, you are playing on the basal level of human behaviour dynamics. You are little better than the tobacco industry of yore, adding chemicals and other compounds to their product to maliciously and purposely raise the possibility of addiction.

I think that the people of the ESO-community and especially ZOS themselves needs to hear this. You are in my opinion, pointing in the right direction because it is a merciful feedback, as well as some anger in you. I am angry for this too.

I equally like ESO as much as I dislike the game. And so I tend to see it for what it is, a game. However the avarage person is (as I believe) caught in this trap you are talking about and that is not very good, not only for the game and it's developers but also for the individual. And I think that the game should be based on the principle of mutual trust (not to intentionally be irrelevant) and not on a mechanism. This is the type of psychology (and futhermore philosophy) that Alan Watts speaks of.

Vahrokh

What ESO has achieved off me with its RNG "VRS".

• Made me quit from 2015 to 2017
• Made me totally refrain from EVER buying a single crate
• Did not quit again ONLY because now we can retrait weapons and gear from the 99% garbage we get.

That is, the only reason why I play ESO, is because I can bypass VRS where it annoys me.

Kali_Despoine

They do it for this.
[doh-puh-meen]

noun
1.
Biochemistry. a catecholamine neurotransmitter in the central nervous system, retina, and sympathetic ganglia, acting within the brain to help regulate movement and emotion: its depletion may cause Parkinson's disease.
Compare dopa.
2.
Pharmacology. a dopamine preparation used to increase the force of contraction of the heart in the treatment of shock.


We all know that most of the player base will not play this game for the story. They will hit skip just to get to end game as fast as possible so they can get their Dopamine fix in.
Crown crates are no exception to the dopamine rule.

They will give you crap over and over so when you hit big your dopamine levels rise and you get high. So to much of a good thing is bad. Drug users call this chasing the dragon.
They don't want you to plateau on dopamine so they have horrid odds on drop rates to keep your dopamine levels low. Then wham!!!! you get that drop your looking for and you get high again.

Malmai

tl:dr its all about cash.

monktoasty

Rng is just a short cut to real game design.