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Probability of getting repeat weapons in VMA: a misconception held by many players
With the double drop event live, quite a number of players are suggesting the loot table is weighted ("rigged") because they are getting 2 charged shields in a row.
While I do not work for ZOS and do not know for certain how the drops are generated, I'd like to point out that many players incorrectly calculate this probability.
How do some players calculate the odds of getting 2 exact same junk in a row? They say, since each weapon has about 1% chance to drop, the chance of getting 2 charged shields in a row is
1% * 1% = 0.01%. OMG RIGGED CONFIRMED.
Now let's see the flaw in this reasoning. What if I received a sharpen axe and a sharpen bow in a bow? According to the logic above, the probability is also 1% * 1% = 0.01%. What about a deceisive maul and a defending axe? Also 0.01%. So how does this tell you anything about the probability of repeated drops? It does NOT.
Here's the correct mathematical way to look at repeat drops:
Let's say we run VMA 5 times, and get 5 drops. What is the probability that we get NO repeat drops?
(100/100) * (99/100) * (98/100) * (97/100) * (96/100) * (95/100) = 85.8%
Why? Because for the first weapon it can be anything. The second weapon must be 1 of the remaining 99 possibilities that we did NOT get, which is 99% chance. The third weapon must be 1 of the remaining 98 possibilities, which is 98% chance.
So that is the chance of getting a repeat drop in 5 runs? 100% - 85.8% = 14.2%.
Now that means you aren't very likely to get repeats in 5 runs, but the probability is NOT 1% * 1% = 0.01% , as many players here believe.
Repeat the same calculation for some more runs and you can see, it's not all that unlikely to get 2 junks in a row.
While I do not work for ZOS and do not know for certain how the drops are generated, I'd like to point out that many players incorrectly calculate this probability.
How do some players calculate the odds of getting 2 exact same junk in a row? They say, since each weapon has about 1% chance to drop, the chance of getting 2 charged shields in a row is
1% * 1% = 0.01%. OMG RIGGED CONFIRMED.
Now let's see the flaw in this reasoning. What if I received a sharpen axe and a sharpen bow in a bow? According to the logic above, the probability is also 1% * 1% = 0.01%. What about a deceisive maul and a defending axe? Also 0.01%. So how does this tell you anything about the probability of repeated drops? It does NOT.
Here's the correct mathematical way to look at repeat drops:
Let's say we run VMA 5 times, and get 5 drops. What is the probability that we get NO repeat drops?
(100/100) * (99/100) * (98/100) * (97/100) * (96/100) * (95/100) = 85.8%
Why? Because for the first weapon it can be anything. The second weapon must be 1 of the remaining 99 possibilities that we did NOT get, which is 99% chance. The third weapon must be 1 of the remaining 98 possibilities, which is 98% chance.
So that is the chance of getting a repeat drop in 5 runs? 100% - 85.8% = 14.2%.
Now that means you aren't very likely to get repeats in 5 runs, but the probability is NOT 1% * 1% = 0.01% , as many players here believe.
Repeat the same calculation for some more runs and you can see, it's not all that unlikely to get 2 junks in a row.
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Recremen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭While that's an accurate assessment (and thanks for bringing out the math, it's incredibly important that layfolk get to see that more often), it is still possible that the loot table has extra entries for "undesirable" items. We simply will never know.Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster0 -
andryuhav✭✭✭Could you pls also do some calculations on how likely it is to get a sword and board on 1st completion for all my 5 characters
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