A desperate poor soul...

Callous2208

I opened 100 for the achievement and then stopped. 1 mask, 5 gold recipes, stacks upon stacks of motifs and blue/purple recipes.

phairdon

yet to get the pumpkin mask drop. Around 200 skulls opened so far.

BlanketFort

Hang in there, buddy. I (only) had to go through 326 skulls before finding a Mask. And right after last boss run for the evening, after having resigned in trying. Although, I did offer my future first-born to RNGezzus. Still have a couple of sets to farm and I'm running out of family members to sacrifice to the cruel God of Chance.

Bobby_V_Rockit

I'm over 200, 4 bloody mary multiple notifs not a single mask. I dont bother with the event now (cp580 anyway)

SASKIY

Vigarr wrote: »

ha wow I suddenly feel better about having 120 skulls with no mask.

I wonder @SASKIY are you an ESO + subscriber? I was beginning to think that these won't drop for someone who isn't ESO+

Yes ESO Sub

MasterSpatula

Skcarkden wrote: »

MasterSpatula wrote: »

andreasranasen wrote: »

LIES! You can't be fully serious that you opened 2k skulls and no mask. If you really did, by now you should have enough money to just go buy one in the Guild Stores. Masks are only around 50k...............

I don't know, man, I'm only at about 150 with no masks, and I've already reached a "By God, I WILL get this drop" state. If I got to 900+, I would probably have given up by now, but I'd also be really steamed about it.

Assuming OP is, you know, not completely insane, there's no good reason for this to have happened to him. Sure, it's perfectly within the realm of RNG possibility, but good game design would have contingencies for things like that.

You mean "after opening x amount of skulls, it's guaranteed to drop" ? Too bad it doesn't happen that way, only possibloe contingency i can see that works.

Well, whether it's a token system in high-end content or a drop rate that adjusts as you do an activity, something. If you have a 1% chance of something and you don't get it in 100 tries, that's bad luck. If you don't get it in 900 tries, that's bad design.

Jeremy

Prof_Bawbag wrote: »

Out of interest, where are these masks listed in guild shops? I have one listed in a guild shop and can see it in my listings, but what does it actually come under?

Who knows.

I had to do a broad search of legendary quality items to find them.

DannyLV702

I knew my rng would be horrible so I bought both masks on day one for 50k each. 100+ skulls and no mask myself, while my friend has done less runs and got about 5

Malnutrition

I've opened about 130 skulls — in golds I've gotten 4 masks (2 of each type) & 1 Double Bloody Mara thus far. The rest were motifs or blue / purple recipes.

Bobby_V_Rockit

I think some players just wont get them. I'm over 2-300 now and just assume it aint gonna happen. Guess I'll have to pay the 100k to some lucky *** who got 10 of each. Thanks ZoS... *slow claps*

Edit: spelling

Elephant42

The major problem with a mathematically correct RNG, is that with a big enough sample size, it is almost certain that a few people will get screwed, just as it is almost certain that a few will find a very rare item on the first attempt.

I've always thought that a better way to do RNG in games is for it to be heuristic. That is it tracks your luck and gradually increases it as necessary to ensure you don't get stuck at the far left end of the bell curve.

On the other hand if the devs truly want something to be rare and based solely on luck and not on time/effort, then they have to also do the reverse, i.e. gradually decrease the luck for grinders and farmers.

The_Protagonist

Elephant42 wrote: »

The major problem with a mathematically correct RNG, is that with a big enough sample size, it is almost certain that a few people will get screwed, just as it is almost certain that a few will find a very rare item on the first attempt.

I've always thought that a better way to do RNG in games is for it to be heuristic. That is it tracks your luck and gradually increases it as necessary to ensure you don't get stuck at the far left end of the bell curve.

On the other hand if the devs truly want something to be rare and based solely on luck and not on time/effort, then they have to also do the reverse, i.e. gradually decrease the luck for grinders and farmers.

On occasion I have found that luck improves after I log after a few days of not playing, I am no statistical analyst, but I can see that RNG adds up to make up for lost time.

I have observed this happening in crafting writs regularly and dungeon pledges, if I do the writs daily I get low end loot, and if I do it after say 4 days, I get at least one glass motif fragment. In case Pledge Keys, I did one after 3 weeks (I'm lazy and easily distracted by farming one thing or the other ) and got shoulder immediately.

But then again dont go by my experience, RNG must have been in my favor at those times, which is very rare.

The_Protagonist

EvilCroc

256 skulls. 1 scarecrow mask. No pumpkin. I wish to cry and already hate that skeleton morph. I hope ZOS will not allow players to use it after event. Otherwise I will not heal these duh reapers in dungeons. (Of course I will, as if I have a choice)

waterfairy

Where can you look to see how many skulls? In the holiday achievement it only shows that I've maxed out the 100 for the achievement but I know I must be close to 200 skulls by now with no mask and only 1 gold recipe.

LegendaryArcher

Vigarr wrote: »

ha wow I suddenly feel better about having 120 skulls with no mask.

I wonder @SASKIY are you an ESO + subscriber? I was beginning to think that these won't drop for someone who isn't ESO+

ZOS's RNG doesn't take ESO+ into account.

When I started running vMA, I was an ESO+ subscriber. 70 runs later, I wasn't anymore. After 300 runs, I uninstalled ESO. So did 30+ people in my Black Desert Online guild that were also ESO+ subscribers initially. For some it took over 1000 vMA runs without a single useful weapon to make the final quitting call.

RNG is a cruel thing.

Elephant42 wrote: »

The major problem with a mathematically correct RNG, is that with a big enough sample size, it is almost certain that a few people will get screwed, just as it is almost certain that a few will find a very rare item on the first attempt.

I've always thought that a better way to do RNG in games is for it to be heuristic. That is it tracks your luck and gradually increases it as necessary to ensure you don't get stuck at the far left end of the bell curve.

That's exactly how it's done in BDO. Not getting a certain item increases its drop chance on the next roll/try. However, it also means that the drop chance of an item you already have is decreased. Since a few patches, the Bad Luck Protection can be toggled.