Aliens abducted my Fish ( Conspiracy Theory )

geodev

So I decided to do some power fishing to generate Perfect Roe, and picked a good spot for quick node respawns.

The Dreugh Pool on the Gold Coast fitted the bill, and would also give me all the foul water rare fish, thus completing the Gold Coast Angler Achievement.

After throwing 3,000 crawlers at the pool I came up with the following.

2245 white fish ( very close to 75%)

319 Chub ( about 10% )

160 Green Rare Fish ( close enough to 5% )

16 Blue Rare Fish ( 0.5 % )

Looking good so far, but unfortunately the green fish breakdown

Spiny Frogfish > 85

Black Anvil Loach > 75

Bullface Wingfin > 0 (ZERO)

Surely the pRNG Deity wouldn't be that cruel

A previous forum post mentioned that this pool will give all foul water rare fish, and this is the only foul water spot in the Gold Coast.
Certainly I couldn't find any others

The odds of not getting the Wingfin, if my rusty probability theory serves me is as follow:

The odds of getting it each event 1 in 60 therefore the odds of not getting it are 59/60

After 3000 events the odds of not getting it are 59/60 raised to the 3000 power

1.3 by 10 - 23

The odds of getting it once in 3000 goes = (1.0 - (1.3 by 10 -23))

0.99999999999999999999999

Which is more likely, that the pRNG hates me or that the fish was taken by Aliens.


I also thought of other possibilities, such as >

1. Players have fished that species to extinction ( very unlikely, they have infinite lives)
2. The fish is migratory and I was in the off season ( nope, would died soon as it hit the salt water and respawn here)
3. There is a bug in the way the pRNG accesses the table of results ( nope, internal QA would squash that immediately)


ALIENS, I can only hope they return the fish before I run out of crawlers, another 2000 left.

On the bright side should make some good gold from the Perfect Roe I'll get from filleting

Funny, I thought I heard some maniacal laughter coming from the Heavens

Take Care Everyone

Zerok

ZOS_DaryaK

geodev wrote: »

Funny, I thought I heard some maniacal laughter coming from the Heavens

That was actually Sheogorath, he wanted something to go with his cheese.

SantieClaws

The maths it made the skull of this humble khajiit ache.

Either that or something in the ale.

All this one knows is that she didn't *urrrp* eat all the fishies. Khajiit she left at least one. Maybe half a one ...

Yours with full and sleepy paws
Santie Claws

Armitas

I'm sure they weren't probed....just kidding they were totally probed.

geodev

Well, now at 4000 crawlers and still no "Bullface Wingfin"

Although I now have 21 blue rare fish and 225 green rare fish

The probability that I should have got it once is now

0.99999999999999999999999999999

odds of 1 in 10^29 that I won't get a "Bullface Wingfin"

That's a lot of 9's , reminds me of Dilbert's RNG monster

@SantieClaws I know for a fact that big numbers are irresistible to Khajiit's, so here's a few more.

10^29 is larger than the number of hair follicles on your "Standard Khajiit"
10^29 is about equal to the number of atoms in 48 "Standard Khajiits ( they won't tell me their weight so I guessed)


And here is some food for thought

10^29 Bullface Wingfin's laid head to tail would not only stretch to the "Kalium Galaxy" but would wrap around the

circumference of the "Observable Universe" about 10 times


@ZOS_DaryaK LOL, I have given up trying to get that fish, the odds are just too great now



Although I did pull in a strange dwemer artefact once, made out of Brass and powered by steam.

Had two components that looked like cart wheels attached to a frame, a seat of sorts near the back and a crosspiece at the front. I couldn't even begin to imagine what it would be used for , so I threw it back in

Take Care eveyone

Contraptions

Bullface Wingfin spawns in rivers, not foul water. If you were looking for that one fish you need to go north to the river near the top of the map.

MornaBaine

The artificial scarcity of Perfect Roe infuriates me. I'm a Provisioner who busted my tail to get the recipe for the XP drink. It requires 2 purple mats and...perfect roe. I would die of boredom trying to fish to get enough perfect roe to make making this drink worthwhile. The whole point of XP potions is to SAVE YOU TIME. Yet it will take MUCH LONGER just to get the perfect roe to make them than it will to just level a character to 50 without them. Thus the XP pots are rendered completely worthless, unsurprisingly making the XP scrolls sold in the crown store far more attractive. So even if you DON'T want the XP drinks for yourself... making them to sell is such a time investment that you could never really charge enough to make it worthwhile. IMHO this is one of the nastiest tricks ZOS has played on us yet.

dannymcgr81b14_ESO

/licks paws
Yes....aliens.

KronicDecay

I blame the Hog Sucker

Mortehl

MornaBaine wrote: »

The artificial scarcity of Perfect Roe infuriates me. I'm a Provisioner who busted my tail to get the recipe for the XP drink. It requires 2 purple mats and...perfect roe. I would die of boredom trying to fish to get enough perfect roe to make making this drink worthwhile. The whole point of XP potions is to SAVE YOU TIME. Yet it will take MUCH LONGER just to get the perfect roe to make them than it will to just level a character to 50 without them. Thus the XP pots are rendered completely worthless, unsurprisingly making the XP scrolls sold in the crown store far more attractive. So even if you DON'T want the XP drinks for yourself... making them to sell is such a time investment that you could never really charge enough to make it worthwhile. IMHO this is one of the nastiest tricks ZOS has played on us yet.

Thus proving people will whine about everything and anything.

SantieClaws

They are a nice little bonus though for those of us who like to fish

Khajiit does not think they were created to make us waste the time but rather to reward a little bit the time used by those who were fishing anyway.

Time is never wasted if you enjoy what you do. If you like to fish then fish. If to hit the same monsters over and over again with the pointy metal you enjoy then also you should do that.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

Cogo

You clicked three THOUSAND times?

AND counted them?

MornaBaine

SantieClaws wrote: »

They are a nice little bonus though for those of us who like to fish

Khajiit does not think they were created to make us waste the time but rather to reward a little bit the time used by those who were fishing anyway.

Time is never wasted if you enjoy what you do. If you like to fish then fish. If to hit the same monsters over and over again with the pointy metal you enjoy then also you should do that.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

It still negates the entire point of the XP drinks for Provisioning unfortunately. XP drinks are supposed to be a time saver. No time is saved if you must fish twice as long as regular leveling without XP drinks to obtain the XP drinks in the first place. You see where I'm coming from?

SantieClaws

That is if you choose to fish yourself and use your time that way.

The roe they are often sold so should you prefer to spend your time levelling and earning coin you may also obtain them at a guild trader.

That is also known as the 'Khajiiti Retirement Fund' method.

Khajiti would not object though if a similar ingredient were to drop from mobs at a similar rate for those who prefer to fish less and fight more.

Yours with paws
Santie Claws

milkbox

geodev wrote: »

Although I did pull in a strange dwemer artefact once, made out of Brass and powered by steam.

Had two components that looked like cart wheels attached to a frame, a seat of sorts near the back and a crosspiece at the front. I couldn't even begin to imagine what it would be used for , so I threw it back in

Perhaps the Bullface Wingfin is the rare fish that needs a bicycle, and you are the author of your own misfortune.

Robbmrp

This is missing from the post....

[img][/img]

I_killed_Vivec

geodev wrote: »

I have given up trying to get that fish, the odds are just too great now

No!!!!!!!

As soon as you stop it's guaranteed that the next cast would have caught one

XistenZ_one

Contraptions wrote: »

Bullface Wingfin spawns in rivers, not foul water. If you were looking for that one fish you need to go north to the river near the top of the map.

I felt I had to quote this, since according the one other source I googled on the matter agreed with this information, and no one else acknowledged it.
You've been putting it in the wrong hole.

Dark_Aether

ZOS_DaryaK wrote: »

geodev wrote: »

Funny, I thought I heard some maniacal laughter coming from the Heavens

That was actually Sheogorath, he wanted something to go with his cheese.