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TBS vs Juli and the warhorn myth

Samwell Slayer
Samwell Slayer
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I started to reply to a question by @Joy_Division in a post by @Asayre



I began writing to answer his question which was essentially how does one get and apply some of the common formulas for damage you see. I began explaining that and ended up explaining when and where one should use Juli vs Twice Born Star. Also, I refute the common myth that "Twice Born is better for trials than is Juli since it benifits more from war horn." This is clearly false on its surface (warhorn is enchanced by crit chance and diminished by crit damage due to diminishing returns). I go further and explain why, in fact, there's no reasonable situation where you will get more dps from Twice Born Star than Julionos after a war horn is sounded (even though you often do before one is sounded). Also of note, at its base TBS gives better dps for all classes except for the magika templar (there Juli outperforms TBS, but only after the major sorcery buff is applied) and DKS who use a destro staff get better DPS with Juli while DKS with duel wield get better dps with a TBS. I begin explaining where the formulas come from. I'm too lazy to rewrite things, so things are still worded as if this was placed in the original post. If you already know or don't care where the common formulas come from simply skip to the last section of this post.



Are you asking where the formulas come from or how he's applying them? He explain the former well, the latter (except for the mit formulas) are easy to derive once you know that the increases in you damage are linear in the both magika and spell damage, i.e. you can figure out how much damage you do for any of those values if you just know what happens at two points. In practice, this means the damage of any abiltiy under the same conditions (i.e. with same wep trait, either with or without major sorcery) is of the form

Damage of thing = a * Spell Damage + b * Magika

(i.e. there isn't something funky like Magika^2 showing up anywhere). Here's where you actually have to leave the theory world behind and find out what a and b are for a given ability. Well, since we're only interested in increase, you can assume one of the numbers is 1, he (and any normal person) takes b = 1 (otherwise you're looking at numbers less than 1 ... ick).

Damage of thing / b = a/b * Spell Damage + Magika.

Playing with this for a bit in practice you see the surprising fact that a/b is a constant for any ability (.. well, nearly ... I assume the differences are due to ZOS rounding errors) and is roughly 10.5 (i.e. have incorrectly been using 10.4 in the past).
So

Damage of thing / b = 10.5 * Spell Damage + Magika = 10.5 s +m

(where m and s are magika and spell damage).
This means that adding 2 points of spell damage improves any ability in the game by the same amount that adding 21 magika does (... so close to 10 ZOS, why ... why??). So if yo uwant to find out how much more damage of a thing does after improving your spell damage by say, 100, you have

Damage increase as %=
(Damage of thing after/b - Damage of thing before/b)/(Damage of thing before) =
[(10.5*(s+100)+m) - (10.5*s +m)]/(10.5*s+m)=10.5*100/(10.5*s+m)

where, as promised, our friendly (and unknown) b has canceled out. Plug in your s and m if you want .. I have s=3000 and m=45000 typically, so for me, 21/1430 = 0.0147 -> 1.47% improvement. This means, without a doubt, that with these stats if I add 100 spell damage (and without having major sorcery up) my attacks will do 1.47% more damage. With major sorcery up you change the scale factor of 10.5 to 10.5*1.2 (he uses 1.25 for some reason ..) Plugging and chugging shows we end up with a 1.62% improvement now (this is because major sorcery improves spell damage and not magika damage, so spell damage makes up more of your "Pool" as a percentage then it did before, which is unfortunate since it means one needs to do two calculations for these sort of things instead of 1).


The other main formula, (1+crit % * crit mod), takes a bit of algebra, and not very intuitive (it says, for one thing, the two have exactly the same effect on your average damage), and the initial step is to use

Total damage of a given number of tests on average = (1-c) *Number of Tests *Base Damage of thing + c* Number of Tests*R*Base Damage of thing

where c is your crit percentage (hence 1-c is your non crit %) and R is your crit ratio, i.e. damage of a crit divided by damage of a non-crit. That formula should be clear (just think of, say, 10 tests of which c of them crit and (1-c) of them do not). Rewrite R=1+r, so r is (when mult by 100) a percent improvement of crits vs non crits, divide by the Number of Tests (you're looking for an average after all) and by the base damage giving, on average, how much more damage an attack does than it's base giving

(1-c)+c*(1+r)= 1-c +c+c*r=1+c*r. This means if you do 53 attacks which do 100 damage when they don't crit, then, on average you'll end up doing a grand total of (1+c*r)*53*100 damage. (Of course if either c or r are zero, you end up getting no bonus from crit damage so the number is just 53*100.)

(Here's where I get to the subject of the post)



(Here's a different application from what he used in his examples ... )
So how much does Julionos improve your DPS (this is a harder one since it involves both improvements of the first type (i.e. magika and spell damage) and improvements of the second type (spell critical)? I'm going to ignore the magika improvement from Juli since magika gets scaled up, and I'm too lazy to look up how. With some algebra you can see it's via


%Change in DPS via Jul=
(1+299*10.5*1.2/(10.5*1.2*s+m))* ( 1+ 0.06*r/ (1+c*r)) -1 =
(1 + % Change via Juli from spell d) * (1+ % Change via Juli from crit) -1

which is just a reflection of the multiplicative nature of adding spell damage then crit (or the other way around).

How about TBS? (Again, we can leave off magika, and we are justified in this if we want to compare them) is

%Change in DPS via TBS=0.183*c/(1+c*r),

(where I'm assuming the shadow has been added to the thief which is typical since it's easier to get r higher than c.) This formula is easier than the one for the Julionos set since there's only one type of change going on here, crit damage (the r value). (It sucks for comparitive purposes that there's the -1 showing up for Juli and not for TBS, but such is life).

If you want to have some "fun" copy and paste the code

(1+(299*10.5*1.2)/(10.5*1.2*s+m))* ( 1+ 0.06*r/ (1+c*R))-1-0.183*c/(1+c*r)@r=0.50,c=0.57,m=40000,s=2600

into http://www.mathpapa.com/algebra-calculator.html to see that for a typical dk with duel wield swords, TBS gives 0.3% more dps than Juli, but when you swap to your destro bar (typically dropping your s to 2200) you end up getting 0.048% (no, i'm not missing a decimal place) using Juli! Contrary to the "myth" that more crit damage means you should use TBS (or equivalently when using TBS one should be stacking crit damage) for a templar (whose only real difference is to improve r from 0.5 to 0.6) you get 0.3% more DPS using Juli. Of course these numbers are soooo small you might as well use TBS since it gives you the added health.

Also note using these formulas that it's impossible with any reasonable numbers to have more DPS with TBS after a warhorn has sounded. Even a sorc (which has the highest base magika and spell damage and small r value) with no points in elfborn (why would a sorc not have any points in Elfborn!?!) gets about 1% more dps with Juli after a war horn is sounded while getting more with the other set, TBS, before (of course as a sorc, you should have points in Elfborn, which moves Juli and TBS into nearly a tie for the sorc, I use Juli only because I don't feel obliged there to have all divines on my gear). I'm not sure where the rumor that TBS is better for trials since it goes well with warhorn started, but it's quite false (maybe for other things, but not for war horn!). It's like an 8 foot tall super skinny dude wishing he were taller.
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  • Valrien
    Valrien
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    War Horn is a multiplicative bonus with Shadow, not an additive bonus. That's why it's better.
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  • Polysemy
    Polysemy
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    Lol
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Valrien wrote: »
    War Horn is a multiplicative bonus with Shadow, not an additive bonus. That's why it's better.

    Hmm .. not sure if I confirmed or assumed it was additive. I know I've confirmed (in addition to all class passives and elfborn cp) that trap beast was additive, and the wording and the terminology (replacing major by minor) are the same, so perhaps I was assuming this was as well. Also, after spending some time looking online, it at least used to to be additive.

    This would mean for any reasonable crit to non crit ratio (i.e. less than 2) that ratio would improve by less than 30%? So it would improve the damage of a particular crit from 10% on the low end to 15% on the high end (the high end giving up so much dps in other ways to be silly)? Overall that would mean, typically, warhorn would boost dps by less than combat prayer on the low end, 6.2931%, and on the other end by 10.27%.

    Can somebody confirm this for me?
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

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  • Woeler
    Woeler
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    Really nice math and all, and I don't know if it is correct or not, but in practice the people with TBS output more damage. How? I don't know, it just is that way.
  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Woeler wrote: »
    Really nice math and all, and I don't know if it is correct or not, but in practice the people with TBS output more damage. How? I don't know, it just is that way.

    Based on what and when? I never questioned if TBS was a better set than Juli (I use it), I'm simply questioning why it's better, and I serious doubts to whether or not it has to do with warhorn. Or are you telling me that a group got together and just sounded warhorn for the time it's up, looked at their DPS, the repeated? With the RNG in this game, I would say they would have to do this silly test 50 times for me to be even remotely satisfied (even then I'd need to know the reason why).

    I wouldn't be surprised if people were getting better numbers in a trial with TBS, then they used backwards logic to conclude that it was due to the warhorns.

    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

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    Samwell Tardy Mgk Sorc AD FC
    Stam Tarly Stam Temp AD Stormproof
    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
    Stamwell Tarly Stam DK DC FC
    Maester Samwell Heal Temp DC
    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Refuse2GrowUp
    Refuse2GrowUp
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    Always been told Aggressive Warhorn was multiplicative with the Shadow Mundus. It may be wrong, but it may not...I'm not a tin-foil hat mathematician.

    Regardless, I have seen plenty of DPS parses in trials where Julis is compared side-by-side against TBS and TBS wins. So, even if my understanding of why turns out to be wrong, at least I know I am still doing more dmg. That's enough for me.
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Valrien wrote: »
    War Horn is a multiplicative bonus with Shadow, not an additive bonus. That's why it's better.

    Doing the numbers, using your assumption, somebody with Juli would get a 8.804% dps increase while somebody with TBS would get a 9.73% increase with TBS. A 0.9% difference, i.e. if the person with Juli did 20k while warhorn was up, the person with TBS (assuming they were doing the same DPS before) would do 20,180 dps in that same time. If that's not is seen, then the assumption "they were doing what they were before" is wrong, or your assumption is wrong.
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
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    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
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    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Always been told Aggressive Warhorn was multiplicative with the Shadow Mundus. It may be wrong, but it may not...I'm not a tin-foil hat mathematician.

    Regardless, I have seen plenty of DPS parses in trials where Julis is compared side-by-side against TBS and TBS wins. So,
    even if my understanding of why turns out to be wrong, at least I know I am still doing more dmg. That's enough for me.

    (How do you test DPS on the Playstation?)

    There are millions of possible different situations in this game. If you don't understand why something improves your DPS, then everytime a new set comes out you're going to have to endless tests just to determine which one is better. Every time they change the meaning of the Mundas stones, you'll have to do endless tests (and mats) to see which one is better. I'd rather play the game and save the crafting and testing time myself, but to each their own.
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
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    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
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    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
    Stamwell Tarly Stam DK DC FC
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    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
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    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Mush55
    Mush55
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    I run julianous and my guild mate runs tbs, the difference in dps is negligable mainly comes down to not stuffing up your rotation.

    He did some crazy maths and found trial buffed he was like 1% ahead and unbuffed it swung the other way with me being slightly ahead.
  • magnusthorek
    magnusthorek
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    I'm not the math-fan kind of players, so I didn't read it all, but since I changed my regular Julianos gear to TBS (Thief+Shadow), even though only four pieces of it were made as VR16 Legendary (need a couple more days on researching the 9th trait for medium armor, so my chest is VR14 Epic) my DPS increased significantly, even during pledges' groups in which the tank usually don't pop Warhorn.

    Quick example: As a (disgraced) Magicka Sorcerer my DPS against the Crematorial Guard in WGT used to be consistently around 18k~21k. With TBS, even under the current status of the pieces, I've got 23k.

    It's something...
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  • Reorx_Holybeard
    Reorx_Holybeard
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    Thanks for the work! A few comments...
    1. I believe Asarye uses 25% as the combination of Major + Minor buffs which is reasonably common to have. It's a minor effect in the end anyways.
    2. The typical ratio of skill coefficient for skills varies anywhere from 10.2 to 10.6 depending on the skill. For a few select skills it is far beyond this range. As an estimate any value in the 10.4-10.5 range is suitable. I believe the value of 10.46 came from the average of all coefficients from Asarye's original calculations.
    3. You say "(1+crit % * crit mod)...it says, for one thing, the two have exactly the same effect on your average damage" but then a few lines below your calculation ends up with the same factor of (1 + c*r). Asarye is looking at the average damage you would expect after a large number of samples which is really the only way to look at things when you're comparing average damage. The CriticalChance and CriticalDamage *do* have the same effect on average damage...don't they?
    4. @Asarye doesn't seem to include the various +CritDamage buff effects in his theorycrafting post so I did some very quick tests on PTS to see what effect Aggressive Warhorn had. It seems to be multiplicative with everything like people have said (see below for numbers if you need them). The simplified formula is:
      CritDmg = (0.5 + Shadow * Divines + ElfBorn + Skill) * Warhorn
      
    5. I've copy/pasted your example as suggested and cannot duplicate your results. I get -0.48% for SD=2600 and -0.09% for SD=2200, both in favour of TBS.
    6. Something is non-intuitive in your comparison. As you increase your critical damage modifier TBS gets *worse* compared to Julianos where you would expect the reverse to be true (as it is currently believed). My assumption is you are not calculating or comparing the percentage increase in damage correctly but I'll have to dig a little deeper to see whether your calculation or my assumptions are incorrect (perhaps we'll be lucky and they'll both be wrong).

    Data for Warhorn:
    So I made a Templar on PTS and quickly ran through some numbers to see how the critical damage modified worked with Aggressive Warhorn and other +CritDmg stats. Basic method was to attack something and compare the normal/critical damage.
    • BaseLine = 2583/1722 = x1.5
    • BaseLine + Warhorn = 3000/1818 = x1.65
    • Piercing Spear (+10% CritDmg) = 2584/1615 = x1.6
    • PS + Warhorn = 3236/1818 = x1.78 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1) * 1.3 + 1 = 1.78)
    • PS + 100 Elfborn (+25%) = 3198/1729 = x1.85 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) + 1 = 1.85)
    • PS + EB + Warhorn = 4096 / 1950 = x2.10 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.10)
    • PS + EB + Shadow (12% + Divines = 15%) = 3457/1729 = x2.00
    • PS + EB + Shadow + Warhorn = 4486/1950 = x2.30 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.30)
    Edited by Reorx_Holybeard on May 25, 2016 3:17PM
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  • DRXHarbinger
    DRXHarbinger
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    Wow all these numbers mean jack if you don't press the right keys at the exact same time or lag one little bit.... if this is what some people get up to just to worry about 1k damage then well. ...humanity doesn't have much hope...start playing the game everyone..like Indiana Jones once said...real archaeologists spend most of thier time in the field not in the library.
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Wow all these numbers mean jack if you don't press the right keys at the exact same time or lag one little bit.... if this is what some people get up to just to worry about 1k damage then well. ...humanity doesn't have much hope...start playing the game everyone..like Indiana Jones once said...real archaeologists spend most of thier time in the field not in the library.

    Good thing Einstein wasn't an archaeologist.
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
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    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
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  • mistermutiny89
    mistermutiny89
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    Wouldn't class also decide which you use??

    My guess is that as a nightblade, your buffs regarding crit comes from slotting more assassin abilities meaning more crit chance and more crit damage but they lack minor buffs to the weapon and spell damage stats, so you'd always go crit based stats meaning TBS would be more optimal.

    Whereas Templar's find it easier to buff spell damage thanks to minor sorcery from proccing dawns wrath(?) abilities.
    Sorcerers get more spell damage from slotting sorc skills.
    Stam dks get more weapon damage from earth hearts 5% weapon damage buff.
    So with those classes stacking more base damage would be more optimal.

    Just a non mathematical take on it. I'm on console and therefore could never truly be sure and I could very well be wrong. More stating my thought process.

    You also have the whole Khajiit thing where perhaps TBS wouldn't be as needed as the shadow probably works just fine without the thief.


    Edited by mistermutiny89 on May 25, 2016 3:59PM
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  • Reorx_Holybeard
    Reorx_Holybeard
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    So I think the problem with your comparison is they way you combine the percentage difference of the Magicka+SD contribution and the critical contribution. When I wish to theorycraft and compare two or more setups I just look at the average tooltips and their comparisons.

    So the average damage for some skill is basically the same as you had it:
    AvgDmg = Factor * (10.5 * s + m) * (1 + c * r)
    

    The "Factor" is different for every skill but if we are looking at ratios between two different setups then this factor disappears:
    Ratio = (10.5 * s2 + m2) * (1 + c2 * r2)/( (10.5 * s1 + m1) * (1 + c1 * r1))
    

    You also didn't specifically add the calculation for the effects of Warhorn and merely assumed that it had the same effect as increasing critical damage. It also adds magicka which may change the ratio comparison. If we add the effect explicitly to the average damage formula we get:
    AvgDmg = Factor * (10.5 * s + m + M) * (1 + c * r * W)
    

    where "M" is the extra magicka from Warhorn and "W" is the critical damage bonus of x1.3.

    If we use the following values for comparison:
    • Magicka = 40k
    • Spell Damage = 2600
    • Crit Change = 0.57 (57%)
    • Crit Damage = 0.50 (x1.50)
    • Julianos = +373 SD, +0.06 Crit Chance
    • TBS = +0.183 Crit Damage
    • Warhorn = +2500 Mag, x1.3 Crit Damage

    Note that I could include the magicka bonus for each set but since it is the same it has the same effect as increasing the base magicka value.

    Doing the same two comparisons in your post but also adding the effect of Warhorn gives (negative means Julianos is superior to TBS):
    • 2200 SD: -0.52%, with Warhorn +0.83%
    • 2600 SD: -0.16%, with Warhorn +1.2%

    So the multiplicative nature of the Warhorn buff shows through with the TBS being worse without it and better with it which matches against most peoples stated experiences.

    Looking at some more numbers (using the base line stats above where not mentioned):
    • 70% Crit Chance: +1.2%, with Warhorn +2.8%
    • 80% Crit Chance: +2.2%, with Warhorn +3.9%
    • x2 Crit Dmg: -3.6%, with Warhorn -3.1%
    • 70% Crit Chance + x2 Crit Dmg: -1.8%, with Warhorn -1.1%
    • 70% Crit Chance + x1.6 Crit Dmg: +0.48%, with Warhorn +1.8%

    So it seems that like most things the TBS/Julianos comparison is "complicated". Granted this is a very simple comparison even assuming I didn't make any errors. It seems like your biggest increase with TBS + Warhorn occurs when you have a low critical damage modifier and a high critical chance. If you have a high critical damage modifier you may get more increase by using Julianos. Even so, the differences are relatively small and I'm beginning to wonder if the whole TBS effect is real or if there are more subtle effects coming into play with TBS+Warhorn that my comparison doesn't take into account.

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  • Oreyn_Bearclaw
    Oreyn_Bearclaw
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    Havent done the math, but I swap back and forth all the time. In a raid setting (warhorn up), TBS noticiably out perfroms Julianos, at least on my DK. Both sets are gold, all divines, 5/1/1. In fact, in the new trial our warhorn uptime always gets cut in half during the twins boss. Usually its about 90% uptime and on that fight its closer to 50-55%. On that fight alone, I actually pull slightly better numbers with Julianos. I do applaud the effort thought. :smile:
  • Foxic
    Foxic
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    Wow all these numbers mean jack if you don't press the right keys at the exact same time or lag one little bit.... if this is what some people get up to just to worry about 1k damage then well. ...humanity doesn't have much hope...start playing the game everyone..like Indiana Jones once said...real archaeologists spend most of thier time in the field not in the library.

    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    [*] You say "(1+crit % * crit mod)...it says, for one thing, the two have exactly the same effect on your average damage" but then a few lines below your calculation ends up with the same factor of (1 + c*r). Asarye is looking at the average damage you would expect after a large number of samples which is really the only way to look at things when you're comparing average damage. The CriticalChance and CriticalDamage *do* have the same effect on average damage...don't they?

    I'm a bit confused as to what you're asking. I was saying the formula says they have the same affect on average damage (so they do), which is cool because I wouldn't have suspected that otherwise (it's fun when you can show something with algebra that you wouldn't have known otherwise).

    [*] Something is non-intuitive in your comparison. As you increase your critical damage modifier TBS gets *worse* compared to Juli where you would expect the reverse to be true (as it is currently believed). My assumption is you are not calculating or comparing the percentage increase in damage correctly but I'll have to dig a little deeper to see whether your calculation or my assumptions are incorrect (perhaps we'll be lucky and they'll both be wrong).

    There's two reasons why
    1) Juli gives crit chance. Crit chance and crit damage are complimentary stats via the formula you pointed out I already just talked about, (1+c*r). In basic calculus, this is the so called fence problem, if you're given a certain amount of fence and you want to enclose the maximum amount of area with that fence, you make a square. If you add more crit damage when you are using TBS you are making a rectangle which much larger on one side than the other.

    Said in another way, the more spread your stats are the better. Crit damage without crit chance is useless, and vice versa. So with Juli (which gives crit chance) you want to seek out crit damage, and vice-versa: for TBS, which gives crit damage, you want to seek out crit chance.

    2) Every stat in the game has diminishing returns. If your crit multiplier is 2, and you add 10% to it, if your basic attack does 100 damage, your crit before will do 200 and will do 210 after, so a (210-200)/200=0.05 -> 5% increase. But if your crit multiplier is say 0 (i know, it's impossible but i like easy math) you're increasing by (110-100)/100=0.10 -> 10% increase, double.

    Data for Warhorn:
    So I made a Templar on PTS and quickly ran through some numbers to see how the critical damage modified worked with Aggressive Warhorn and other +CritDmg stats. Basic method was to attack something and compare the normal/critical damage.
    • BaseLine = 2583/1722 = x1.5
    • BaseLine + Warhorn = 3000/1818 = x1.65
    • Piercing Spear (+10% CritDmg) = 2584/1615 = x1.6
    • PS + Warhorn = 3236/1818 = x1.78 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1) * 1.3 + 1 = 1.78)
    • PS + 100 Elfborn (+25%) = 3198/1729 = x1.85 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) + 1 = 1.85)
    • PS + EB + Warhorn = 4096 / 1950 = x2.10 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.10)
    • PS + EB + Shadow (12% + Divines = 15%) = 3457/1729 = x2.00
    • PS + EB + Shadow + Warhorn = 4486/1950 = x2.30 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.30)
    These are great numbers and put this to rest! It's quite strange and unfortunate that ZOS would do this (we're only getting about 1/2 of what we expect from warhorn). Did you try the same thing with trap? I think I tested it in the past, but I did it with a toon whose crit multiplier was pretty close to 1 (i.e. multiply noncrits by 2 to get crit number) , in which case multiplying 1.12 and adding 0.12 are the same, so I may have misattributed the increase.

    In another post here, I did the calculation assuming that warhorn was multiplicative (which you have now shown to be the case) and showed that TBS benifits from warhorn by 0.9% more than Juli.

    Thanks for doing this research!
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

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  • Taleof2Cities
    Taleof2Cities
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    ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Why do you assume @DRXHarbinger is a casual?

    A five-star poster in the forums suggests otherwise ...

    Do agree, however, this is good math to digest in the debate between TBS and Julianos ... more to come I'm sure ...
  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
    ✭✭✭
    Wow all these numbers mean jack if you don't press the right keys at the exact same time or lag one little bit.... if this is what some people get up to just to worry about 1k damage then well. ...humanity doesn't have much hope...start playing the game everyone..like Indiana Jones once said...real archaeologists spend most of thier time in the field not in the library.

    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Some of us actually have PhD's in math and resent people who look down their nose at it, but I'm glad you said it and not me :)
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
    Samantha Tarly Stam Sorc DC FC
    The Sawmell Tarly Tank DK EP Stormproof
    Tamwell Sarly Mgk Temp AD FC
    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
    Samwell Tardy Mgk Sorc AD FC
    Stam Tarly Stam Temp AD Stormproof
    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
    Stamwell Tarly Stam DK DC FC
    Maester Samwell Heal Temp DC
    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Havent done the math, but I swap back and forth all the time. In a raid setting (warhorn up), TBS noticiably out perfroms Julianos, at least on my DK. Both sets are gold, all divines, 5/1/1. In fact, in the new trial our warhorn uptime always gets cut in half during the twins boss. Usually its about 90% uptime and on that fight its closer to 50-55%. On that fight alone, I actually pull slightly better numbers with Julianos. I do applaud the effort thought. :smile:

    You can't crit that bosses shield making TBS useless for large chunks of the fight
    So I think the problem with your comparison is they way you combine the percentage difference of the Magicka+SD contribution and the critical contribution. When I wish to theorycraft and compare two or more setups I just look at the average tooltips and their comparisons.

    So the average damage for some skill is basically the same as you had it:
    AvgDmg = Factor * (10.5 * s + m) * (1 + c * r)
    

    The "Factor" is different for every skill but if we are looking at ratios between two different setups then this factor disappears:
    Ratio = (10.5 * s2 + m2) * (1 + c2 * r2)/( (10.5 * s1 + m1) * (1 + c1 * r1))
    

    You also didn't specifically add the calculation for the effects of Warhorn and merely assumed that it had the same effect as increasing critical damage. It also adds magicka which may change the ratio comparison. If we add the effect explicitly to the average damage formula we get:
    AvgDmg = Factor * (10.5 * s + m + M) * (1 + c * r * W)
    

    where "M" is the extra magicka from Warhorn and "W" is the critical damage bonus of x1.3.

    If we use the following values for comparison:
    • Magicka = 40k
    • Spell Damage = 2600
    • Crit Change = 0.57 (57%)
    • Crit Damage = 0.50 (x1.50)
    • Julianos = +373 SD, +0.06 Crit Chance
    • TBS = +0.183 Crit Damage
    • Warhorn = +2500 Mag, x1.3 Crit Damage

    Note that I could include the magicka bonus for each set but since it is the same it has the same effect as increasing the base magicka value.

    Doing the same two comparisons in your post but also adding the effect of Warhorn gives (negative means Julianos is superior to TBS):
    • 2200 SD: -0.52%, with Warhorn +0.83%
    • 2600 SD: -0.16%, with Warhorn +1.2%

    So the multiplicative nature of the Warhorn buff shows through with the TBS being worse without it and better with it which matches against most peoples stated experiences.

    Looking at some more numbers (using the base line stats above where not mentioned):
    • 70% Crit Chance: +1.2%, with Warhorn +2.8%
    • 80% Crit Chance: +2.2%, with Warhorn +3.9%
    • x2 Crit Dmg: -3.6%, with Warhorn -3.1%
    • 70% Crit Chance + x2 Crit Dmg: -1.8%, with Warhorn -1.1%
    • 70% Crit Chance + x1.6 Crit Dmg: +0.48%, with Warhorn +1.8%

    So it seems that like most things the TBS/Julianos comparison is "complicated". Granted this is a very simple comparison even assuming I didn't make any errors. It seems like your biggest increase with TBS + Warhorn occurs when you have a low critical damage modifier and a high critical chance. If you have a high critical damage modifier you may get more increase by using Julianos. Even so, the differences are relatively small and I'm beginning to wonder if the whole TBS effect is real or if there are more subtle effects coming into play with TBS+Warhorn that my comparison doesn't take into account.

    Basically what I'm getting. Your numbers favor Juli a bit more than mine simply because you applied a major sorcery bonus to it's bonus, but not to the base. Also, I'm using numbers typical of my magika nb which has much more magika, and a bit more crit chance (which outweighs the critical damage bonus' effect).

    On your final comment, from my own experience, seeing big ass numbers (which TBS certainly does) going across my scene gets me excited and makes me focus more. I tend to do the worst DPS when I'm using Spell Power Cure while DPS'ing on my magika nb with spell power cure. This doesn't mean that SPC is a bad set, but it does probably mean the healers (who should have it by now) haven't farmed WGT enough and represents the overall quality of the group. Raids which spend the time to all make Twice Born Gear because they heard it's slightly better tend to be more serious players, so tend to work better together as a group.



    Have you done any testing with numbers to see what you get more out of with TBS a

    1) Crit chance bonus
    2) Magika bonus
    3) Spell damage bonus.

    I've been seeing that this list is increasing (crit chance giving the least) and I'm a bit surprised (making me question the ones using 5 TBS and 4 Juli). In fact, not even counting the Kena proc, I'm getting that already, 2 Kena and 2 Torug is only 1.3% behind Juli. I'm doing this with a free online program while waiting for my regular computer to be repaired (which explains why I'm typing more than playing), so it's possible that this is off.
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

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    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
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    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Why do you assume @DRXHarbinger is a casual?

    A five-star poster in the forums suggests otherwise ...

    Do agree, however, this is good math to digest in the debate between TBS and Julianos ... more to come I'm sure ...

    It's Math. There is no debate. It's me getting proven wrong on some things, and me getting proven right on some things while loving every minute :smiley: .
    Edited by Samwell Slayer on May 25, 2016 5:20PM
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

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    Samwell Tardy Mgk Sorc AD FC
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    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
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    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • DRXHarbinger
    DRXHarbinger
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    ✭✭
    Wow all these numbers mean jack if you don't press the right keys at the exact same time or lag one little bit.... if this is what some people get up to just to worry about 1k damage then well. ...humanity doesn't have much hope...start playing the game everyone..like Indiana Jones once said...real archaeologists spend most of thier time in the field not in the library.

    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Some of us actually have PhD's in math and resent people who look down their nose at it, but I'm glad you said it and not me :)

    Not arguing over it...but none of this takes racial passives into account...who benefits more a dunmer DK using all ardent flame whilst lighting everything up with breath for an extra 10% damage on top. Or a Kaijit stamblade (using hundings it's the same thing) these formulas don't work with these variables when they are in fact a constant for all players in the game. Just using spell / weapon damage and magika / stamina + crit change isn't the right way to do it. I get that it's theory n all but using just flat figures that all can access doesn't reflect "real world" combat. Not to mention you are assuming with crit stats that attacks are critting 70% of the time, we've all hit 5 attacks before and not critically hit at all. Plus the meta for Julianos crit is 72% in light devines, thief + precise staff all gold...Tbs is 60% using thief and precise all devines...the numbers aren't right in the first place. Plucking numbers out of thin air makes these formulas just wrong in the first place and again nothing to go by in real game terms.
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Wouldn't class also decide which you use??

    My guess is that as a nightblade, your buffs regarding crit comes from slotting more assassin abilities meaning more crit chance and more crit damage but they lack minor buffs to the weapon and spell damage stats, so you'd always go crit based stats meaning TBS would be more optimal.

    Whereas Templar's find it easier to buff spell damage thanks to minor sorcery from proccing dawns wrath(?) abilities.
    Sorcerers get more spell damage from slotting sorc skills.
    Stam dks get more weapon damage from earth hearts 5% weapon damage buff.
    So with those classes stacking more base damage would be more optimal.

    Just a non mathematical take on it. I'm on console and therefore could never truly be sure and I could very well be wrong. More stating my thought process.

    You also have the whole Khajiit thing where perhaps TBS wouldn't be as needed as the shadow probably works just fine without the thief.


    1) Yup yup. I that's exactly the intution. Don't forget the champion points as well. Templars get away with adding little to no points into elfborn since so much of their damage is dot damage, so they can split their points between Elemental Expert and Thurmaicantspellitfsladkfsajf (you know, the dot one) avoiding diminishing returns.

    2) Quick point, nightblades have awesome minor buffs, the best in the game! Boosting magika by 8% adds a lot more dps than adding 8% spell damage since most of your base damage comes from magika (and not spell damage).

    3) Khajit is a good example of a borderline case where you'd either need to spend countless hours crafting multiple sets and hours testing, or 30 seconds using the formulas (yes, some people prefer the former ...) to see which way things lean. I honestly couldn't tell you. In general, assuming you do it in a reasonable way, the closer you get the two number the better off you are, so (since the kitty's bonus is for wep crit only) since you're tlalking stam builds, and since you can use precise weapons (well up to the next patch) I suspect you're right, you would be better of going Hundings shadow (if crit damage and crit chance are within a few points of each other always go shadow) instead of twice born, but I can't say for sure and i'm too lazy to put the numbers in, lol.
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
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  • iam117
    iam117
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    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Why do you assume @DRXHarbinger is a casual?

    A five-star poster in the forums suggests otherwise ...

    Do agree, however, this is good math to digest in the debate between TBS and Julianos ... more to come I'm sure ...

    a 5 star poster in the forums says nothing but what your post count is? im sorry but forum activity has nothing to do with level of play in game and how serious you are.
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
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    Not arguing over it...but none of this takes racial passives into account...who benefits more a dunmer DK using all ardent flame whilst lighting everything up with breath for an extra 10% damage on top. Or a Kaijit stamblade (using hundings it's the same thing) these formulas don't work with these variables when they are in fact a constant for all players in the game.
    For the DK, if everything you do increases by an average of a certain percent, the same thing is going to happen when things get scaled up. You're right about the Khajit, but I only real considered magika. Typical numbers for stam users are quite different.
    Not to mention you are assuming with crit stats that attacks are critting 70% of the time, we've all hit 5 attacks before and not critically hit at all
    .
    Nooooo, LoL!!! That's exactly what you're assuming. In fact you've just proven that any "real world" tests are not valid unless you to 50 of them.
    Plus the meta for Julianos crit is 72% in light devines, thief + precise staff all gold...Tbs is 60% using thief and precise all devines...the numbers aren't right in the first place.
    Nobody uses Juli and precise.
    Plucking numbers out of thin air makes these formulas just wrong in the first place and again nothing to go by in real game terms.
    I didn't use any numbers at until the last paragraph (except for the 10.5 number).
    Edited by Samwell Slayer on May 25, 2016 5:53PM
    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
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    Tamwell Sarly Mgk Temp AD FC
    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
    Samwell Tardy Mgk Sorc AD FC
    Stam Tarly Stam Temp AD Stormproof
    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
    Stamwell Tarly Stam DK DC FC
    Maester Samwell Heal Temp DC
    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Reorx_Holybeard
    Reorx_Holybeard
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    Data for Warhorn:
    So I made a Templar on PTS and quickly ran through some numbers to see how the critical damage modified worked with Aggressive Warhorn and other +CritDmg stats. Basic method was to attack something and compare the normal/critical damage.
    • BaseLine = 2583/1722 = x1.5
    • BaseLine + Warhorn = 3000/1818 = x1.65
    • Piercing Spear (+10% CritDmg) = 2584/1615 = x1.6
    • PS + Warhorn = 3236/1818 = x1.78 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1) * 1.3 + 1 = 1.78)
    • PS + 100 Elfborn (+25%) = 3198/1729 = x1.85 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) + 1 = 1.85)
    • PS + EB + Warhorn = 4096 / 1950 = x2.10 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.10)
    • PS + EB + Shadow (12% + Divines = 15%) = 3457/1729 = x2.00
    • PS + EB + Shadow + Warhorn = 4486/1950 = x2.30 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.30)
    These are great numbers and put this to rest! It's quite strange and unfortunate that ZOS would do this (we're only getting about 1/2 of what we expect from warhorn). Did you try the same thing with trap? I think I tested it in the past, but I did it with a toon whose crit multiplier was pretty close to 1 (i.e. multiply noncrits by 2 to get crit number) , in which case multiplying 1.12 and adding 0.12 are the same, so I may have misattributed the increase.

    In another post here, I did the calculation assuming that warhorn was multiplicative (which you have now shown to be the case) and showed that TBS benifits from warhorn by 0.9% more than Juli.

    Thanks for doing this research!

    I forgot about Trap Beast so did another quick test and looks like it is additive to the base critical damage just like everything else:
    • Trap Beast + Everything Else = 3907 / 1843 = x2.12 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12) + 1 = 2.12)
    • Trap Beast + Warhorn = 4779 / 1950 = x2.45 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.45)

    I'd like to do a more complete analysis on TBS/Julianos using all the typical raid buffs but don't have the time. There may be some more synergy between buffs and TBS which makes it more worthwhile. For those wondering about these sort of simulations...they are useful to compare things but its good to keep in mind that the game is very complex and it is difficult/impossible to factor in every little detail that may affect the results.
    Edited by Reorx_Holybeard on May 25, 2016 6:08PM
    Reorx Holybeard -- NA/PC
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  • Samwell Slayer
    Samwell Slayer
    ✭✭✭

    Data for Warhorn:
    So I made a Templar on PTS and quickly ran through some numbers to see how the critical damage modified worked with Aggressive Warhorn and other +CritDmg stats. Basic method was to attack something and compare the normal/critical damage.
    • BaseLine = 2583/1722 = x1.5
    • BaseLine + Warhorn = 3000/1818 = x1.65
    • Piercing Spear (+10% CritDmg) = 2584/1615 = x1.6
    • PS + Warhorn = 3236/1818 = x1.78 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1) * 1.3 + 1 = 1.78)
    • PS + 100 Elfborn (+25%) = 3198/1729 = x1.85 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) + 1 = 1.85)
    • PS + EB + Warhorn = 4096 / 1950 = x2.10 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.10)
    • PS + EB + Shadow (12% + Divines = 15%) = 3457/1729 = x2.00
    • PS + EB + Shadow + Warhorn = 4486/1950 = x2.30 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.30)
    These are great numbers and put this to rest! It's quite strange and unfortunate that ZOS would do this (we're only getting about 1/2 of what we expect from warhorn). Did you try the same thing with trap? I think I tested it in the past, but I did it with a toon whose crit multiplier was pretty close to 1 (i.e. multiply noncrits by 2 to get crit number) , in which case multiplying 1.12 and adding 0.12 are the same, so I may have misattributed the increase.

    In another post here, I did the calculation assuming that warhorn was multiplicative (which you have now shown to be the case) and showed that TBS benifits from warhorn by 0.9% more than Juli.

    Thanks for doing this research!

    I forgot about Trap Beast so did another quick test and looks like it is additive to the base critical damage just like everything else:
    • Trap Beast + Everything Else = 3907 / 1843 = x2.12 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12) + 1 = 2.12)
    • Trap Beast + Warhorn = 4779 / 1950 = x2.45 (theory = (0.5 + 0.1 + 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.12) * 1.3 + 1 = 2.45)

    WTH ZOS. Same name (well one minor one major) but opposite ways they are applied.

    I'd like to do a more complete analysis on TBS/Julianos using all the typical raid buffs but don't have the time. There may be some more synergy between buffs and TBS which makes it more worthwhile. For those wondering about these sort of simulations...they are useful to compare things but its good to keep in mind that the game is very complex and it is difficult/impossible to factor in every little detail that may affect the results.

    Yup yup. One only needs to talk about averages with complex things. Nobody talks about the average of the numbers

    7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7, ...........

    (looks like 7 to me), and nobody talks about the average temperature in San Diego.

    PC/Mac NA server. Cast, in order of appearance (got one of everything):

    Samwell Slayer Stam NB AD Stormproof
    Samantha Tarly Stam Sorc DC FC
    The Sawmell Tarly Tank DK EP Stormproof
    Tamwell Sarly Mgk Temp AD FC
    Covenant Blues Mgk DK EP Stormproof
    Samwell Tardy Mgk Sorc AD FC
    Stam Tarly Stam Temp AD Stormproof
    Samwelf Tarly Mgk NB DC FC
    Stamwell Tarly Stam DK DC FC
    Maester Samwell Heal Temp DC
    Samara Tarly Tank NB EP
    Sam Mfing Tarly Mule Sorc EP
    Warden of HTarly. Mgk. Ward AD FC
    Lord Tarly Stam Ward. DC. Still lowbie
  • Bluepitbull13
    Bluepitbull13
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    liv3mind wrote: »

    Why are all of the casual players on eso so defensive? If you don't care about the math behind more dps then ignore the thread and don't bother commenting if you have nothing to contribute. Not everyone enjoys playing the game like you do

    Why do you assume @DRXHarbinger is a casual?

    A five-star poster in the forums suggests otherwise ...

    Do agree, however, this is good math to digest in the debate between TBS and Julianos ... more to come I'm sure ...

    a 5 star poster in the forums says nothing but what your post count is? im sorry but forum activity has nothing to do with level of play in game and how serious you are.

    3ESnwJY.jpg
    PC-NA
  • Taleof2Cities
    Taleof2Cities
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    liv3mind wrote: »

    a 5 star poster in the forums says nothing but what your post count is? im sorry but forum activity has nothing to do with level of play in game and how serious you are.

    Did you take the time to read @DRXHarbinger 's post in this thread or comments in other topics?
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