Perfect Roe probability

xxxdcxxx

I heard that the probability of getting Perfect Roe is about 1/200
Is that on a single login or is it counted on the whole ?
I mean I have skinned 60 fishes totally so will I get a Perfect Roe within the next 140 or do I need to skin 200 fishes in a single login

HebrewHatchet

That's not how probability works. You can think of it as the machine picking a random number between 1 and 200 every time you skin a fish. If the number it chooses is 142, then you get a perfect roe. Each random number chosen is independent of the other random numbers chosen. In other words, previous random numbers chosen are not considered in any way when choosing random numbers.

VodkaVixen1979

RNG can be the pits. Some days 200 fish will give me about 4. The other day I skinned 350+ fish and only got 2. Over the thousands of fish I have skinned, I get roughly 1 out of 50. I only skin them on my level 50 provisioner.

xxxdcxxx

Ty for your replies Hebrew and Vodka

VodkaVixen1979 wrote: »

RNG can be the pits. Some days 200 fish will give me about 4. The other day I skinned 350+ fish and only got 2. Over the thousands of fish I have skinned, I get roughly 1 out of 50. I only skin them on my level 50 provisioner.

Why skin them on level 50 provisioner , any advantage on that ?

RazielDERF

1/200 makes sense to me because I only ever attained 1 out of the 100+ times I made the attempt to get it. It was not during one play through, it was through multiple log ins to get it. When I did get it I almost fell off my chair. I feel it should be easier to get this damn item.

VodkaVixen1979

xxxdcxxx wrote: »

Ty for your replies Hebrew and Vodka

VodkaVixen1979 wrote: »

RNG can be the pits. Some days 200 fish will give me about 4. The other day I skinned 350+ fish and only got 2. Over the thousands of fish I have skinned, I get roughly 1 out of 50. I only skin them on my level 50 provisioner.

Why skin them on level 50 provisioner , any advantage on that ?

It is merely a theory based on observation. I used to farm for perfect roe and my boyfriend would make the recipes on his maxed out provisioner. My luck with that was terrible and I saw someone else mention on the forum about your provisioning level possibly helping. I went ahead and leveled it up on my character and noticed that my average roe output did indeed increase. It could be chance, it could be true, haven't read any dev content to confirm, but it can't hurt to be leveled up either is how I look at it.

Sunburnt_Penguin

Having skinned ~10k fish, I'd say 1/125 is my average.

KaylynT

Sunburnt_Penguin wrote: »

Having skinned ~10k fish, I'd say 1/125 is my average.

Same here and I still haven't finished my master angler ahievement.

Volkodav

I can get perfect Roe at random times up to two in a 100 fish haul. I've been getting three a day lately.I know it isnt because of my provisioning level,as I dont use it,or level it up with points.I dont craft food either.
I think it's the places I fish.I have four fishing holes I run.I fish one out,goto another,until I come back to the first and fish some more.
It's fun.
I donate the fish fillet to my guild bank.

dodgehopper_ESO

I've skinned thousands of fish, and I'm pretty sure I've never gotten a perfect roe. Probability can be a meanie sometimes.

Sunburnt_Penguin

KaylynT wrote: »

Sunburnt_Penguin wrote: »

Having skinned ~10k fish, I'd say 1/125 is my average.

Same here and I still haven't finished my master angler ahievement.

@KaylynT
Tbh I only started fishing for Roe so rarely ventured anywhere other than Stonefalls. Then at the same time at which I realised what's needed for Master Angler (which resulted in me wanting it), Wrothgar was giving double returns so it took a back seat. Now that it's gone I'll be fishing around, as they say.

Elephant42

I would place fairly good odds on the chance of getting Perfect Roe being 1% each time a fish is skinned.

Tib

My stats so far -,-

Tib

xxxdcxxx wrote: »

I heard that the probability of getting Perfect Roe is about 1/200
Is that on a single login or is it counted on the whole ?
I mean I have skinned 60 fishes totally so will I get a Perfect Roe within the next 140 or do I need to skin 200 fishes in a single login

HebrewHatchet wrote: »

That's not how probability works. You can think of it as the machine picking a random number between 1 and 200 every time you skin a fish. If the number it chooses is 142, then you get a perfect roe. Each random number chosen is independent of the other random numbers chosen. In other words, previous random numbers chosen are not considered in any way when choosing random numbers.

That's not a good way to put it, when you're explaining it to a non-statistician.

You will never be guaranteed a Perfect Roe within the next X tries. However, every time you skin a fish with no Perfect Roe, the likeliness that the next fish will yield nothing decreases. So you will have a statistically better chance of getting a Perfect Roe the more fish you skin....

With a big enough sample size the probability will be the given number because individual "bad" RNG is not affecting the stats anymore. It's impossible to skin a million fish and not get a Perfect Roe, and by impossible I mean extremely low probability.

Acharnor

I gave up on this prize, never got one and do not have the patience it takes to fish. My daughter however got two in short order, maybe 40 fish.

Happy fishing - I got some mobs to kill.

KillahBrew

nurrtibub16_ESO wrote: »

xxxdcxxx wrote: »

I heard that the probability of getting Perfect Roe is about 1/200
Is that on a single login or is it counted on the whole ?
I mean I have skinned 60 fishes totally so will I get a Perfect Roe within the next 140 or do I need to skin 200 fishes in a single login

HebrewHatchet wrote: »

That's not how probability works. You can think of it as the machine picking a random number between 1 and 200 every time you skin a fish. If the number it chooses is 142, then you get a perfect roe. Each random number chosen is independent of the other random numbers chosen. In other words, previous random numbers chosen are not considered in any way when choosing random numbers.

That's not a good way to put it, when you're explaining it to a non-statistician.

You will never be guaranteed a Perfect Roe within the next X tries. However, every time you skin a fish with no Perfect Roe, the likeliness that the next fish will yield nothing decreases. So you will have a statistically better chance of getting a Perfect Roe the more fish you skin....

With a big enough sample size the probability will be the given number because individual "bad" RNG is not affecting the stats anymore. It's impossible to skin a million fish and not get a Perfect Roe, and by impossible I mean extremely low probability.

Wrong. Technically, random means you could get no roe many many times in a row. The fact that you got one or not has no bearing on the next random chance. We do feel as humna minds, that we are "due" when we haven't seen one for a long time. But that is not true. Black hasn't come up on roulette in a while, let's bet on black. Oh! It came up red!