Some Monster head drop rate data 120 runs compiled. Does anybody else not trust ZOS?

f047ys3v3n

So my buddy and I figured while farming for Neraneth and Malbeth we would keep track of exactly how may heads dropped and tally it up. We had had the sneaking suspicion, after farming VWGT for spell power cure for quite a while that the drop rates were much lower than the old v12 days. After all, we had at least 50 runs each in VWGT and 4 sets of Spell power cure between us with no light heads for either of us.

Now the hard data. In 27 runs of VCOH and 3 runs of VWS (this is 120 person runs total since we have all 4 players data) there were:
8 heavy heads - 1 divines, 1 impenetrable, all the others crap traits
1 light head - crap trait
1 medium head - crap trait

This comes out to a nice even 1/12 for the drop rate but that is deceiving. It is deceiving because you would expect that rate to be even across weights and traits and I think it used to be in the V12 days when I have quite a lot of monster heads. This is clearly not the case anymore. Things you want like light or medium for dps, and Neraneth is really only a dps and PVE set, drop at a much lower rate than the undesirable heavy, in say, reinforced, which alone accounted for half the total drops. Your drop rate for what you want, say light in either infused or divines is much lower. The rate is certainly lower than 1/120 and just how low is really anybody's guess since you have to assume, based on the pattern established for weights, that drop rates have been designed to invert the desires of players so that the more ideal something is the less it drops. This did not used to be the case though there has been a definite pattern throughout the history of the game to that end. The first raid content, AA and HR, dropped gear only in weights that made sense for the set and in the best possible trait for each piece. The next gear, VDSA and SO came in only correct weights but with traits that were random with what appeared to be equal frequency of each trait. After that we had Monster heads with random weight and trait initially appearing to be again even chances of each. Now, on the revamped monster sets, we have random weights and traits with the data suggesting that the frequency of each is heavily slanted against desirable features. I have heard similar rumblings from the guys who have done lots and lots of VMA. Nobody has a mountain of evidence but it appears that the pieces you want, say flame staff or two handed great-sword, are much rarer than the one handed tanking sword that nobody wants and furthermore, a desirable trait like sharpened or precise is rarer than the horrid defending trait.

My point in all this is that I feel rather deceived by the stealthy and vicious changes to the rates of drop over the history of monster sets and also very suspicious in general of ZOS treatment of RNG. Having been burned before by the 1.6 update destroying my Infaliable Aether gear a month after I finally got it (same thing happened to Valken Skoria and Mephalas), and well before the Imperial City update replaced that seasons gear, I have a hard time committing to any effort obtaining high end gear. With the changes in theives guild I might be able to complete VMA with my main templar but given that past history of deciding that the extra 150 dps (1,500) that Infallible gave you was OP I am wary of the fact that I expect a VMA flame staff with the ability changes to wall of elements to be worth more like 4k.

In ESO you have to ask yourself, will you get to use the gear you work hard for?

What is the actual chances of getting said gear since it is clear they cannot be estimated from those of the same gear in say a different weight or trait?

I have frankly reached the point that I do not trust ZOS on any aspect of gear whether that be RNG or lifespan. It is my expectation that if I work tword a piece of gear I will either never get it or get it at long last to have it nerfed soon after. I am not sure what the solution for this is with me as trust is hard to build. What I would like to see is current published drop rates for each BOP item at the end of each patch notes, a token system to give a max amount of work independent of RNG, and a schedule to let you know when a seasons gear will be retired. While this is certainly extreme on the patch notes end I have grown to lothe the general tendency of ZOS to be opaque whenever possible. Tell me ZOS, why should I trust you enough to chase any of your carrots?

Kammakazi

We just need to have ZoS release the actual in-game drop rate %, that's all.

lolo_01b16_ESO

tl;dr random number generator generates random numbers

rng will always be frustrating for some people, this just shows that it works correct. If you assume that there is a 10% chance to get a helm each time you kill a boss, 1 out of 200 players won't have a single helm after 50 runs and and 1 out of 10.000 will need more than 87 runs. On the other hand you have people like me who got 1 heavy reinforced, 1 medium divines and 1 light infused from the last 4 coa runs (and I don't even need them )

To avoid frustration adding systems like the new monster helm trader or making them tradable within the playerbase are much better than just increasing the drop chance. The latter will only reduce the number of frustrated people, but some will still be very unlucky.

hrothbern

Kammakazi wrote: »

We just need to have ZoS release the actual in-game drop rate %, that's all.

agree

Release the ppm drop rate and make changes part of the info in the patch notes.

as simple as that

EnemyOfDaState

lolo_01b16_ESO wrote: »

tl;dr random number generator generates random numbers

rng will always be frustrating for some people, this just shows that it works correct. If you assume that there is a 10% chance to get a helm each time you kill a boss, 1 out of 200 players won't have a single helm after 50 runs and and 1 out of 10.000 will need more than 87 runs. On the other hand you have people like me who got 1 heavy reinforced, 1 medium divines and 1 light infused from the last 4 coa runs (and I don't even need them )

To avoid frustration adding systems like the new monster helm trader or making them tradable within the playerbase are much better than just increasing the drop chance. The latter will only reduce the number of frustrated people, but some will still be very unlucky.

I agree for the most part but 10% sounds way to high. Plus you have to factor in getting the correct weight for your build and trait. I would say you have less then a 5% chance of getting an item useful for your character.

Samphaa

Have done pledges everyday on 2 characters for months, still waiting for my divines molag kena shoulder tho....

Triumviri

i dont know guys, i have been playing for a while and i just started doing pledges, only have done what 20 ish? and i already have 2 sets of monster items, crappy traits yes but i still have them nonetheless.

bodgan and maw if you were wondering.

Grevier

if they'd get rid of bop, everything would be fine...

Valrien

Undesirable my ass...been farming for a heavy divines Kena for months.

Shader_Shibes

*Breaking News*

RNG + BoP + ZoS sucks.

glavius

Far too low number of runs for at kind of reliable statistics

Saumur11689

IMO the drop rate of Monster helmet is around 10%

f047ys3v3n

glavius wrote: »

Far too low number of runs for at kind of reliable statistics

Agreed, and isn't that saying something when 120 runs is not near enough data to determine much. I mean there wasn't even a good traited good weighted drop in all that.

elantaura

I did 33 runs for a heavy well fired engine guardian. My other mate has run it even more and to top it I take my dos with him so we are close to 50 runs him none and me 1.
But we have annoyingly run it now with a few who got it their first or second time.... Which sux for us.
Banished cells which was my first vet dungeon farmed and didn't count I finally got helm the other day.
Coh I have 3 ( I suggest it's because I never wanted it) and I have done no where near the same amount of Runs as dark shade, banished cells etc
And I know one guy who seems to get everything within 3 runs . It random but also infrequent for me.

Greiver

f047ys3v3n wrote: »

So my buddy and I figured while farming for Neraneth and Malbeth we would keep track of exactly how may heads dropped and tally it up. We had had the sneaking suspicion, after farming VWGT for spell power cure for quite a while that the drop rates were much lower than the old v12 days. After all, we had at least 50 runs each in VWGT and 4 sets of Spell power cure between us with no light heads for either of us.

Now the hard data. In 27 runs of VCOH and 3 runs of VWS (this is 120 person runs total since we have all 4 players data) there were:
8 heavy heads - 1 divines, 1 impenetrable, all the others crap traits
1 light head - crap trait
1 medium head - crap trait

This comes out to a nice even 1/12 for the drop rate but that is deceiving. It is deceiving because you would expect that rate to be even across weights and traits and I think it used to be in the V12 days when I have quite a lot of monster heads. This is clearly not the case anymore. Things you want like light or medium for dps, and Neraneth is really only a dps and PVE set, drop at a much lower rate than the undesirable heavy, in say, reinforced, which alone accounted for half the total drops. Your drop rate for what you want, say light in either infused or divines is much lower. The rate is certainly lower than 1/120 and just how low is really anybody's guess since you have to assume, based on the pattern established for weights, that drop rates have been designed to invert the desires of players so that the more ideal something is the less it drops. This did not used to be the case though there has been a definite pattern throughout the history of the game to that end. The first raid content, AA and HR, dropped gear only in weights that made sense for the set and in the best possible trait for each piece. The next gear, VDSA and SO came in only correct weights but with traits that were random with what appeared to be equal frequency of each trait. After that we had Monster heads with random weight and trait initially appearing to be again even chances of each. Now, on the revamped monster sets, we have random weights and traits with the data suggesting that the frequency of each is heavily slanted against desirable features. I have heard similar rumblings from the guys who have done lots and lots of VMA. Nobody has a mountain of evidence but it appears that the pieces you want, say flame staff or two handed great-sword, are much rarer than the one handed tanking sword that nobody wants and furthermore, a desirable trait like sharpened or precise is rarer than the horrid defending trait.

My point in all this is that I feel rather deceived by the stealthy and vicious changes to the rates of drop over the history of monster sets and also very suspicious in general of ZOS treatment of RNG. Having been burned before by the 1.6 update destroying my Infaliable Aether gear a month after I finally got it (same thing happened to Valken Skoria and Mephalas), and well before the Imperial City update replaced that seasons gear, I have a hard time committing to any effort obtaining high end gear. With the changes in theives guild I might be able to complete VMA with my main templar but given that past history of deciding that the extra 150 dps (1,500) that Infallible gave you was OP I am wary of the fact that I expect a VMA flame staff with the ability changes to wall of elements to be worth more like 4k.

In ESO you have to ask yourself, will you get to use the gear you work hard for?

What is the actual chances of getting said gear since it is clear they cannot be estimated from those of the same gear in say a different weight or trait?

I have frankly reached the point that I do not trust ZOS on any aspect of gear whether that be RNG or lifespan. It is my expectation that if I work tword a piece of gear I will either never get it or get it at long last to have it nerfed soon after. I am not sure what the solution for this is with me as trust is hard to build. What I would like to see is current published drop rates for each BOP item at the end of each patch notes, a token system to give a max amount of work independent of RNG, and a schedule to let you know when a seasons gear will be retired. While this is certainly extreme on the patch notes end I have grown to lothe the general tendency of ZOS to be opaque whenever possible. Tell me ZOS, why should I trust you enough to chase any of your carrots?

The drop rates are a little on the low side. Ran Vwgt 40 times before I got a light reinforced helm. Next 3 runs produced 2 kwna helms. 1 heavy impen, 1 heavy infused.

That spell power light helm comes from Kena. It dropped recently for me but was a light reinforced helm.

NoMoreChillies

Bind on Pickup
nobody likes it

Joy_Division

I don't see this as a BoP issue.

These sets are clearly designed for rewards and incentives for doing the vet dungeons. Was actually a really good idea on ZoS's part.

The issue is, for anyone who has done a lot of these from the v12 days till now knows, the drop rate is much lower.

DDemon

There is no reason for any of the end game gear to have a trait like training or well fitted, when you look at maelstrom weapons, who in their right mind would want a defending weapon?

It's already a gamble as it is, why throw all these useless traits no one would ever want or use in the mix?

Humatiel

now now, we all know how ZoS works;

everything not divine/infused 98%
divine = 1%
infused = 1%

WillhelmBlack

You're forgetting shoulders too. Done dailies since they started and never had an Engine Guardian shoulder, not a single one.

DRXHarbinger

Kammakazi wrote: »

We just need to have ZoS release the actual in-game drop rate %, that's all.

Won't help. I got 6 Kena helms in 6 runs I kid you not. Mephala on other hand took me 7 months solid trying at least 10 times per week. Pretty much same for engine guardian. Have one and one only.

Banana

Buy when Thieves guild drops. Grinding sux arse.

Asmael

Heh, I've given up on getting a decent Bloodspawn / Kena setup. I've done like 60 gold runs, slightly more for silver, and still no divines nor impen Kena or Bloodspawn, as helm or shoulder, that's 8 target helmets.

8 out of 10 Bloodspawn helmets I had were well-fitted.
the very first kena shoulder I got was well-fitted.
2 out of 3 Skoria helmets were well-fitted.
And probably 80% of every monster gear I get is well fitted overall. And that's when you're lucky enough to actually get some gear, I can't tell you how many times I /dishonor on Voranor's body in Spindleclutch, because the best things he dropped were white / green non-set garbage...

I'm rolling Kag x5, Magnus x4 and Willpower x3, screw monster gear.

sebban

The way dropped items work in ESO is bad and ZOS should feel bad.

The system either needs to be fixed or completely reworked.

Personofsecrets

Kammakazi wrote: »

We just need to have ZoS release the actual in-game drop rate %, that's all.

as long as it doesn't turn into another flesh atronarch trophy

f047ys3v3n

I don't really have much else pressing to do in game before thieves guild so i think i will keep updating this. Last night did 9 more coh with the group getting 2 heavy divines, 1 med infused and 1 med well fitted.

Updated data. In 36 runs of VCOH and 3 runs of VWS (this is 156 person runs total since we have all 4 players data) there were:
10 heavy heads - 3 divines, 1 impenetrable, all the others crap traits
1 light head - crap trait
3 medium head -1 infused 2 crap crap trait

Brutusmax1mus

My fiance and i ran 3 vet dungeons yesterday. Our first with these characters. She got a helm and a shoulder from the silver chest and i got a helm. Forget which ones and traits but we haven't done a single dungeon till we got to vet 16. Rng is random.

Xjcon

Nothing worse then a gear grind that takes so long the next DLC is coming out before you can max out your build. Countless people farmed VCOA for the Helm for months only to watch it become crap, then people farm for the last few months in hopes of getting their Kena helm only to find out ZoS is going to nerf it. With this kind of track record I'm not sure I want to spend the next 3 months farming some sets from MoL.

On a side note Zos has made an effort to bring a very hard to complete set in line with a craftable set. 5 months after the release of IC.

f047ys3v3n

In the last few days I did 4 more VWGT runs and 9 DC runs. No players received heads on the VWGT runs and the DC runs yielded 1 heavy infused, 1 light infused, and 2 medium reinforced. This brings the totals to:

36 runs of VCOH, 3 runs of VWS, 4 runs VWGT, and 9 runs VDC (this is 208 person runs total since all 4 players data is included) there were:
11 heavy heads - 3 divines, 1 infused, 1 impenetrable, all the others crap traits
2 light heads - 1 infused, 1 crap
5 medium heads -1 infused 4 crap crap trait

That breaks down to about 1/11.5 chance for any head. 1/104 for light, 1/42 for medium, and 1/19 for heavy. I believe the drop rates are so low that even these 208 runs are not near enough to get anything close to knowing the actual rates. You can draw your own conclusions about whether or not any of this is worth the effort. As Xjcon mentioned, with ZOS, a set that proves to be an actual advantage is quite often destroyed after the 6months or so of being good lures people into putting forth the effort to obtain it. Just ask anybody who had Valken skoria or Mephalas in 1.5.

As for me, I doubt I will be running any more of these grind sessions as there is new content to play in, the novelty of collecting data on this has worn off, and, with the saved progress in VMA allowing me to actually make attempts at it with my schedule, I have to decide whether to try for any of that gear. This is a real decision as, with the changes to wall of elements, I think Maelstrom weapons will offer more than twice the advantage dps wise as any previous set in the history of the game including Infallible, Vicious, Valken, and Mephalas all of which, notably, were not just nerfed but destroyed (left no longer best in slot and, in fact, inferior to crafted or green trash drop sets) prior to seasonal expiration of the sets. That is quite the advantage given that we are talking about single weapons here and not 5 piece sets. I am inclined to look as ZOS history of scorched earth on desirable and hard won sets and think perhaps instead of the current spell power and wall of elements buff they will give maybe a health regen buff and nerf wall of elements back down to the utility only status of the other destro staff abilities. I'm just saying, been burnt too many times to be blaming the guy burning me at this point.

Oh_Skrivva

Took a little over 50 vWGT runs to get my first kena helm. Luckily that first drop was exactly what I needed.

Anhedonie

Yep. After all theese nerfs to gear, I struggle to trust zos too