Public Service Announcment: BOP grind odds/time

GreyRanger

So I was grinding along in Orsinium trying to get a set I was interested in trying out (doing the daily solo & 6 world boss dailies) and was struck by the huge amount of useless drops I was accumulating. As I looked at it I realized that the new grind is particularly insidious because of the sheer volume of useless items on the loot table. If you are trying to put together a 5 piece Briarheart (common goal) or 5 piece Permafrost (might be fun) you are going to have to wade through mountains of useless drops to get your set together. So I decided to figure out how many drops and how long it will take. Seeing the data I am retiring from the Orsinium grind. Data and explanations follow:

The mean number of attempts to achieve success is given by the function: e = 1/p
where e is the average attempts to success and p is the probability of success on each attempt.

So for illustration is you want to get a 5 piece set and there are 9 items in the set and there are 90 items in the pool (both real values for Orsinium) it should take 10 attempts (reward boxes) to get the first item on average. Doesn't seem too bad. For the next item in the pool your chances drop to 8 in 90, then 7 in 90, and so on till your get your 5 pieces. There is an additional complication that has to do with rings being useful twice and where in the series of attempts rings occur changes the probability distributions a bit. I believe I have accounted for that accurately in the actual calculations underlying the data below.

A couple more observations about assumptions. I have assumed that 80% of boxes drop set gear. I don't have enough observations to estimate that accurately, but that seems plausible if a bit hopeful based on what I have seen. I have assumed that jewelry has an equal drop chance with armor. My observations suggest that this is wrong, jewelry seems more rare to me, but I have no where near enough data estimate this. This all assumes you will live with whatever mix of v15/16 gear you get. v16 gear is so much more rare aiming for this blows the calculations beyond absurdity for anyone who does something other than ESO.

The time calculations assume 10 min/box for a fast rate and 15 min/box average rate. This is based on chatting with guild mates and watching my own play. It may take you more of less time, but there is a lot of time spent Orsinium just getting groups together.

So now the data run models:

5 piece set you will take any traits and pieces
Number of boxes needed on average: 78.8
Fast time to complete: 13.1 hours game play
Average time to complete: 19.7 hours game play
This seemed livable, but an awful lot of time for what will turn out to be mostly v15 gear that will mostly have junk traits.

5 piece set, 3 jewelry & 2 specific armor locations needed
Number of boxes needed on average: 211.6
Fast time to complete: 35.3 hours game play
Average time to complete: 52.9 hours game play
Ugh, junk traits mostly v15

5 piece set, 3 jewelry & any 2 armor locations - jewelry traits match role & infused or divines on armor
Number of boxes needed on average: 737
Fast time to complete: 122.8 hours game play
Average time to complete: 184.25 hours game play
Given the modest power of all these sets with possible exception of Briarthorne this is just silly.

5 piece set, 3 jewelry & 2 of 3 armor locations (common goal for tanking sets, excludes head/shoulders for EG & belt/gloves for low armor value)
jewelry traits match role & infused or divines on armor
Number of boxes needed on average: 1013.7
Fast time to complete: 168.95 hours game play
Average time to complete: 253.4 hours game play
This is what I thought I was going for. When I saw the grind time cost I decided I am done with this.


In the end I came to the conclusion that the current Orsinium grind is a bit like the lottery for me. It looks enticing and it is fun to fantasize about winning, but when you can see the actual cost in comparison to the reward it looks like an awful bet that is really hard on people who don't understand the way the system works. I recognize that some gamers have this kind of time or don't care if they ever actually get the set. That just does not work for me.

I hope this is helpful.

Rook_Master

Thanks for doing the math. I think deep down we all knew it as a ridiculous waste of time chasing these sets, but it's useful to confirm it with real numbers.

Oreyn_Bearclaw

Math for the win! Said it before, and I will say it again. People can complain about class imbalance, bugs, mechanics, whatever until they are blue in the face. Those will always be part of an MMO. The gear distribution in this game will be it's ultimate downfall. It needs serious re-thinking like yesterday.

Cuyler

+1. Nerf BoP

GreyRanger

I was talking about the Orsinium grind with a friend in game who had read the post, but had a specific question:

If you have 4 of the 5 pieces you need to complete a set and you want a specific trait on a specific piece how long should it take you to get it (e.g., All I need to finish my set is a Briarheart ring, robust), on average?

Assuming 6 traits on the armors (no training or sturdy) and 80% sets in boxes the number of boxes is:

n = (480/1)/.8 which is 1 item in a 480 time table with an 80% chance to draw from the table on each box.

So 600 boxes. If you assume a fast 10 min per box, 100 hours game play to get that last item.

I promised to post the answer with the math. Hope that is helpful.