Perfect Roe procs bugged?

Alphashado

So I heard a guy the other day saying that he had skinned very few fish and had 30 or so perfect roe. Now today I just saw someone post in guild chat that they found 16 already while averaging 1 every 20 or so fish.

The VAST majority of people that have been skinning like crazy and have skinned thousands of fish are getting .5% (1/200)-1% (1/100)

This isn't a standard thread about crafting/gathering results, this thread is because I am curious if anyone else has heard about these crazy numbers some people are getting. This might be a major bug that can/will get turned into an exploit that can/will destroy the economy. Perhaps it would be a good idea to discover this bug before it gets that far. (If indeed it's a bug)

Akavir_Sentinel

I just got 2 out of 164. Yesterday I got 3 out of 400. Random is random. If there is a set percentage chance (like Nirncrux), Zenimax hasn't said.

ScruffyWhiskers

1 out of 350+. And a blue fish in a lake in stonefalls somewhere that must be laughing at me.

Acrolas

There's a whole thread basically showing that you can analyze the crap out of this but you'll never really prove anything.

Hence my insistence that it's the scientific method, which is used to create theories as opposed to answers.
There's no answer to this. Only theories.

At the end of the day, the only numbers people really care about are their own, and they tend to get butthurt if they feel they're falling behind. People are hence going to more quickly brag about how much perfect roe they have than how much effort it took to actually get it.

"Very few" could be a few thousand. Or a few hundred. I don't care. I don't measure my *** on the Internet using fish eggs.

The_Sadist

Unless I personally saw these individual's inventories I feel it's safe to assume they're making it all up, or are not being honest with how many fish 'very few' entails. I've skinned about 150 fish and have so far received 0, I imagine the RNG gods are still angry at me, for whatever reason, and that the drop rate is probably fine.

WldKarde

Around 550 fish skinned = 14 Perfect Roe so far for me....don't know if that's good or bad.

But better than Zero I guess

Natjur

Most are getting an average of 1% (1 row per 100 fish)
But random is random

Akavir_Sentinel

What some players don't understand is that no matter what the percent chance of getting a Perfect Roe is, you aren't guaranteed to get it within a certain amount of filets.

Take Nirncrux for example. The chance to get a Nirncrux from a node is 0.25% (1 in 400), but that doesn't mean that you are guaranteed to get a Nirncrux for every 400 nodes you harvest. You may harvest 2,000 nodes and not get a single one. There is a 0.25% chance (1 in 400) per node that you can get a Nirncrux.

The same goes for Perfect Roe. I'm sure there is a certain percent chance per filet of getting a Perfect Roe. No one knows what that percentage is yet. Maybe Zenimax will be forthcoming like they were with Nirncrux and tell us.

Alphashado

My concern is that there is a particular bugged scenario that is causing rare situations where people are getting incredibly high drop rates. Because if that is the case, there are people that will discover this scenario and exploit it. The duping exploit that was happening with the bank storage comes to mind. This was discovered and reported in beta, yet it was months into launch before it was fixed. Certain individuals took advantage of this bug once they figured out the scenario that created it.(Most ended up getting banned) By the time ZoS fixed it, the damage was almost irreversible.

SirAndy

About 1 per 20 fish for me, i exclusively fish in Craglorn and skin 'em there too ...

Akavir_Sentinel

SirAndy wrote: »

About 1 per 20 fish for me, i exclusively fish in Craglorn and skin 'em there too ...

Same here. And I just now fished and skinned 200 and didn't get a single Roe. Again, random is random.

nimander99

0 out of 400 river fish 6 out of 70 lake fish... figure it out

edit: and yes fish and skin in crag as it doesn't seem to happen anywhere else for me...

helediron

3 from 260 Crag lake fish and 2 from 100 others (river, foul).

coryevans_3b14_ESO

It makes no difference what fish you skin.

at 15 perfect roe and it's holding steady at 1 percent.

The recipe fragments however....37 writs now and 0 fragments....grrrrr!!!!!

Tors

about 40 from 4000 (i failed at getting master angler a long time ago, and really couldnt be bothered to skin the fish before the roe came out, a was about to vender em all to save space too!)

Thats a pretty big sample group, so its safe to say its 1%

Alphashado

coryevans_3b14_ESO wrote: »

It makes no difference what fish you skin.

at 15 perfect roe and it's holding steady at 1 percent.

That seems to be the general consensus. This is why I am concerned that some people are getting 30 or more roe averaging 1/20. Because if there is a bug and it can be intentionally duplicated, it will be intentionally duplicated. And I don't want it to get out of control like the bank duping did and nearly destroy the game economy to the brink of a major roll back like what happened at launch.

coryevans_3b14_ESO

Alphashado wrote: »

coryevans_3b14_ESO wrote: »

It makes no difference what fish you skin.

at 15 perfect roe and it's holding steady at 1 percent.

That seems to be the general consensus. This is why I am concerned that some people are getting 30 or more roe averaging 1/20. Because if there is a bug and it can be intentionally duplicated, it will be intentionally duplicated. And I don't want it to get out of control like the bank duping did and nearly destroy the game economy to the brink of a major roll back like what happened at launch.

That is a good point. I sure hope there isn't a bug to exploit here.

stojekarcub18_ESO

It has been taking me well over 1k fish to get each perfect roe. RNGesus has always hated me, though...so I guess in my case that's a great percentage.

drschplatt

I'm up to about 400 fish with no roe. I don't know why I even bother with things based completely on RNGs. They need to have an exchange where you could trade 400 fish for a roe or something. At least then you have a chance of getting something.

I also did over 100 writs before I got my first survey. I was really excited, then I found out the surveys aren't really worth anything, heh.

Akavir_Sentinel

The best way to go about this is to break down the time and cost of fishing. If it's not worth it to you, or you've got particularly bad RNG luck, then it's probably best to not even bother, or just sell the stacks of fish to someone else and let them try their luck. I've tested this out in Craglorn over a period of time.

A fishing hole solo will last for 15 casts. Bait stacks to 200. That's enough bait for 13 fishing holes. Each fishing hole takes, on average, 4.5 minutes to deplete solo. So, that stack of 200 bait will last you for, on average, 1 hour. Your chances of catching a skin-able non-trophy fish are around 40%, because you can also catch multiple types of trophy fish which are not skin-able, and wet gunny sacks. I've found that, on average, a stack of 200 non-trophy bait (worms, guts, etc..) yields around 100 skin-able fish.

Let's say you burn up 3 stacks of bait. That's enough for 600 casts, and will take you around 3 hours. Let's also say that out of those 600 casts you get 400 skin-able fish. Now, those 400 fish could yield Perfect Roe, or they could give you absolutely nothing and you wasted 3 hours. You've got to decide, before skinning those fish, whether to sell the stacks of un-skinned fish (which you can sell for quite a bit) to someone and let them try their luck, or take your chances to get a Roe. Let's say those 400 fish yielded 1 Roe (which is going for around 20K). Was that 3 hours worth 20k? I know of several places that I could make a lot more than 20k in 3 hours time.

Basically you have one of two choices. Sell the stacks of un-skinned fish for guaranteed gold, or take your chances at getting absolutely nothing.

badmojo

Alphashado wrote: »

My concern is that there is a particular bugged scenario that is causing rare situations where people are getting incredibly high drop rates. Because if that is the case, there are people that will discover this scenario and exploit it. The duping exploit that was happening with the bank storage comes to mind. This was discovered and reported in beta, yet it was months into launch before it was fixed. Certain individuals took advantage of this bug once they figured out the scenario that created it.(Most ended up getting banned) By the time ZoS fixed it, the damage was almost irreversible.

So, do you actually know the method? Or are you just being paranoid?

If you do, what's the point of this thread? Shouldn't you just /report it and keep its existence quiet? I mean, this thread is essentially announcing the exploit to any potential exploiters out there, so... it's doing more damage than good.

Ley

I haven't played in a couple weeks (witcher 3 is occupying me) but I can just imagine, when I come back fishing holes are going to be cram packed with people now.

Alphashado

badmojo wrote: »

Alphashado wrote: »

My concern is that there is a particular bugged scenario that is causing rare situations where people are getting incredibly high drop rates. Because if that is the case, there are people that will discover this scenario and exploit it. The duping exploit that was happening with the bank storage comes to mind. This was discovered and reported in beta, yet it was months into launch before it was fixed. Certain individuals took advantage of this bug once they figured out the scenario that created it.(Most ended up getting banned) By the time ZoS fixed it, the damage was almost irreversible.

So, do you actually know the method? Or are you just being paranoid?

If you do, what's the point of this thread? Shouldn't you just /report it and keep its existence quiet? I mean, this thread is essentially announcing the exploit to any potential exploiters out there, so... it's doing more damage than good.

I do not. If I did, then I would report it.

So you think that bringing up a valid concern is being paranoid? So all the people that thought something fishy was going on with the bank in beta... were they also being paranoid? Yet the game still launched with a potentially lethal exploit because nobody believed all those "paranoid" people. What I am trying to do is surface an issue if there is an issue to be surfaced.

If this thread prompts the mods to report a potential issue, then I will consider it a success. If they shut it down because there is indeed a potential exploit, then I will also call that a success. What I DO NOT want to happen is for people to only use the correct channel to report an issue like this and have it go under the radar for months like the bank dupe did.

And if it's not an issue, then so be it. All the better.

And this thread isn't announcing any exploit. It's meant to discover if there is a potential exploit to then be reported.

badmojo

Alphashado wrote: »

badmojo wrote: »

Alphashado wrote: »

My concern is that there is a particular bugged scenario that is causing rare situations where people are getting incredibly high drop rates. Because if that is the case, there are people that will discover this scenario and exploit it. The duping exploit that was happening with the bank storage comes to mind. This was discovered and reported in beta, yet it was months into launch before it was fixed. Certain individuals took advantage of this bug once they figured out the scenario that created it.(Most ended up getting banned) By the time ZoS fixed it, the damage was almost irreversible.

So, do you actually know the method? Or are you just being paranoid?

If you do, what's the point of this thread? Shouldn't you just /report it and keep its existence quiet? I mean, this thread is essentially announcing the exploit to any potential exploiters out there, so... it's doing more damage than good.

I do not. If I did, then I would report it.

So you think that bringing up a valid concern is being paranoid? What I am trying to do is surface an issue if there is an issue to be surfaced. Why does it bother you so much? Something to hide?

I think it's paranoid to automatically assume people getting lucky with RNG is a result of their exploitation. I actually assumed from the way you were talking that you knew how it was being done.

Why does this thread bother me? Because you don't know anything, you're just speculating. If you did know something, I'd be bothered by it for different reasons, mainly because it would inform exploiters about its existence.

Alphashado

badmojo wrote: »

Alphashado wrote: »

badmojo wrote: »

Alphashado wrote: »

My concern is that there is a particular bugged scenario that is causing rare situations where people are getting incredibly high drop rates. Because if that is the case, there are people that will discover this scenario and exploit it. The duping exploit that was happening with the bank storage comes to mind. This was discovered and reported in beta, yet it was months into launch before it was fixed. Certain individuals took advantage of this bug once they figured out the scenario that created it.(Most ended up getting banned) By the time ZoS fixed it, the damage was almost irreversible.

So, do you actually know the method? Or are you just being paranoid?

If you do, what's the point of this thread? Shouldn't you just /report it and keep its existence quiet? I mean, this thread is essentially announcing the exploit to any potential exploiters out there, so... it's doing more damage than good.

I do not. If I did, then I would report it.

So you think that bringing up a valid concern is being paranoid? What I am trying to do is surface an issue if there is an issue to be surfaced. Why does it bother you so much? Something to hide?

I think it's paranoid to automatically assume people getting lucky with RNG is a result of their exploitation. I actually assumed from the way you were talking that you knew how it was being done.

Why does this thread bother me? Because you don't know anything, you're just speculating. If you did know something, I'd be bothered by it for different reasons, mainly because it would inform exploiters about its existence.

Yes I am speculating. Call it a hunch. Not only that, but I haven't accused anyone of exploitation. At all. Not once in this thread have I done that. I will explain it again in order to avoid confusion. If someone is getting 20-30 perfect Roe after skinning 600 fish for an average of 1/20 when almost everyone else is getting 1/100 or 1/200, then that is an eyebrow raising number that likely is not simply lucky RNG. And it's possible that certain circumstances those people are in (location, fish, armor, hair color, who knows) are leading to a bug. If this is the case, then people will discover exactly how to trigger the bug and they will exploit it.

And btw, if threads about speculation bother you, then you are in the wrong place.

coryevans_3b14_ESO

Ley wrote: »

I haven't played in a couple weeks (witcher 3 is occupying me) but I can just imagine, when I come back fishing holes are going to be cram packed with people now.

They aren't.

badmojo

It's RNG. Even if one guy got 100 Roe from 100 fish, it doesn't actually prove anything unless it's consistent. That one guy you're talking about might have gone through 400 fish and gotten only 2 Roe, then suddenly in the last 200 he got really lucky and got 18-28 more. You would have to show a pattern, and keep track of every single skinning to raise my eyebrows. Offer him 600 fish for 10 roe, see if he takes the deal and how well it works out for him the second time around.

I even have the fish to spare if he wants to trade and try it again. I've yet to get any Roe myself as I've only skinned a dozen or so fish, but I've kept every fish I have ever caught because I knew they'd be more than just vendor trash someday.

SirAndy

SirAndy wrote: »

About 1 per 20 fish for me, i exclusively fish in Craglorn and skin 'em there too ...

Looks like i jinxed it, spent the last two days fishing and NOT A SINGLE Perfect Roe ...

WhiskeyJac

0 from 400+ fish :'(

Akavir_Sentinel

Also keep in mind that Zenimax knows how many Roe players are getting, and if they deem it necessary, can change the drop rate at any time with a hotfix and you'd never know.

timborggrenlarsenb16_ESO

Come, on guys and girls the perfect Roe is easy compared to like Nirncrux.