No Survey's ?

crowfl56

I do writs everyday, woodworking, blacksmithing, clothing,enchanting, provisions, and I go weeks without receiving a survey, is it broken, I mean (insert word) what did you guys in patch shop do now ?

Xendyn

Provision doesn't have a survey but yeh, I agree in general. Seems the map drop is pretty low for equipment and enchanting.
That's one of the reasons I only do equipment ones when I have the spare mats to do them.

Itemization in general, incentives and rewards just plain need some work.

Elephant42

My drop rate for surveys on all of the crafts is roughly about 50%. That being said I can sometimes get streaks without them, but to balance that I will also get the occasional run of 2 or 3 in a row.

neueregel

in the last three weeks now, on three players all maxed in all crafts... id say I get 2-3 surveys a day (for all 3 players that is). That is no where near 50%

crowfl56

To give u my rate, I have gotten 1 enchanter survey in 3 weeks. Is it just bad luck ?

snackrat

Random drops are random. When doing ench writs (the only skill I'm still levelling), I have gotten a Survery out of it every time except once.

The drop rate may not actually be low. Just your luck is terrible.

What you might be thinking of is Gambler's Fallacy - if the chance is X%, and your current drops is less than that, you'd assume that your chance to drop in the future is higher than X% - for statistical balance reasons.
It is not. It remains at X% every time. You will not have a statistically significant sample until you've done at least one hundred.

What are the chances of getting nothing five time in a row if the drop is supposed to be 50%? Very low. What is the chance of getting nothing four times in a row, and then getting it on the fifth? EXACTLY as low. The chance is very low when projecting forward because you're accounting for five different variables, but once you're four drops in, you're back to 50/50 chance.


Fish are much the same, unfortunately. It would be nice if they added in incremental drop chances, because even with an X% of 95, someone out there has made over a dozen attempts and gotten nothing. The player base is large enough to strike that tiny chance.
If X went up by 1% each time it failed, resetting only on success, then it may take a while - but you're guaranteed to get it eventually.

Merlin13KAGL

Alchemy surveys drop like clockwork. The rest, not so much.

Romo

Merlin13KAGL wrote: »

Alchemy surveys drop like clockwork. The rest, not so much.

Have the same experience.