Multiple threads have mentioned that with the removal of softcaps the hybrid build is going to disappear. As it currently stands I agree that there is a possibility that builds using both stamina based and magicka based abilities will disappear if Zos do not tread lightly.
Essentially this occurs because specialization out performs non-specialization.
A brief example if in total I can get 100 stamina/magicka points then builds with either 100 stamina points or 100 magicka points will be more powerful than a build which only incorporates 50 points in each.
This was a way that softcaps and diminishing returns on stats helped to encourage build diversity. It added a whole new metagame component of "well further points into _____ are not effective. Which secondary stat should I focus on?" This encouraged blended builds and allowed for much more complex interaction of stats/abilities. With soft caps removed there is no incentive to blend different styles of play and instead the incentive is to completely fully invest offensive capabilities into one particular line while ignoring all others. This maximizes your play at that particular role. Further once players have removed 50% of the skills as choices (assuming it is a 50/50 split) then due to a lack of blended encouragement they will simply need to analyze for the best 5+1 skill bar with their chosen role/offense type.
This is bad as it will encourage people to gravitate towards fixed 'ideal' builds in the end no matter how you slice it there will be 6 ideal offensive builds.
1) Magic based Tank
2) Magic based DPS
3) Magic based Healer
4) Stamina Based Tank
5) Stamina Based DPS
6) Stamina based Healer
These will likely be reduced to only 3 optimal builds (a Stamina based healer is likely worse than a magicka based healer, tanks are similar ....and for DPS one or the other will be better).
These builds will largely be able to be determined by fairly simple analysis
Take DPS role for example:
I take 10 characters at a gradient of different stat levels (1/10th max, 2/10th max, 3/10th...9/10th, 10/10). With these 10 characters in place (or one max level character with different gear for weaker levels) a rough plot can be made of the damage points on a graph (Microsoft excel....) Then using built in functions produce a polynomial best fit function for each skill. Finally take a mathematical programming suite (R, SAS, MATLAB, etc...) Write a short program includinging all possible skills assigned to their appropriate functions (what maybe 150 skills total? ) then you insert your current stat point value for magicka and stamina hit play....the program will analyze each function output a damage value for each ability and construct an ordered list of all skills from most powerful to least powerful.
After this to make the best skill bar simply identify the best AoE and the best ST(single target damage skills) put those on then fill in the remaining 3 skills with utility abilities to augment the best skills (guess what the same list created earlier might put some utility skills much higher suggesting they are better to look at).
This is easy to do and costs $0,might take 4 max level characters (1 of each class, and so WW and Vamp)...data collection is simple (equip the gear record the value, rinse repeat 10x for each skill line, 12 class skill lines, WW, Vamp, 6 weapons, then the stragglers from actives from other places: in total 20-25 x10x5 numbers to record....or 1000-1250 numbers to record creating 100-125 plots in excel and 100-125 equations to compare with a program...write the code, enter your values output 30 seconds later) The whole process might take an afternoon (2 if you are slow)...This is the problem with simple systems, they are also simple to break down ...better yet write an add-on that simply grabs these values as you play and exports the data to a database which then generates the best fit equations and produces a data value for all skills and organizes top picks automatically...this just requires installing the add-on and playing then reading the values...again simple systems are easy to brute force test for ideals.
The best way to prevent this is to create a system sufficiently complex that it cannot be brute forced (or prevent access to the data needed to brute force the system, this is probably not an option since players like to know the numbers...). To create a more complex system you need to add variables, soft cap adds a variable (a second or third stat focus). Another variable is synergies, each synergistic ability increases the number of combinations by the number of combinations of possible synergies multiplied by the number of skills (impacted by the synergies).
Let me put this into perspective a bootstrap analysis I did recently generated and then analyzed 1,000,000 data points the whole analysis took about 45 minutes of the computer crunching the numbers to give me an output. It took 3 weeks to write the 150 line program, test it, debug and make it work correctly. Think about that 1,000,000 data points in 45 minutes, now how long do you imagine 1,250 will take?
OK, enough of the mathematical theory ....here's the bottom line
This system is fairly simple already and pushing it to a simpler state (especially in the age of big data) borders on the edge of a brute force for the best ability (heck it could already be done...I am not going to ...but someone playing the game probably has already). The system needs to be made more complex this can be done several ways.
1) increasing the amount of stat interaction behind the scenes to create a damage value (or whatever other value I'm just picking on damage today but the same principle applies to all other roles or catagories). This makes the process much more difficult to analyze ( not impossible though just need enough data).
2) Make automation of data collection more difficult. This is probably pretty hard to do because players like to know values, when values are displayed then that information is avalible to be gathered automatically. Perhaps a less defined system might help to fuzzy the numbers (consider if the player only knows that a piece of armor adds 'substantial' weapon damage...no specific numbers and the overall stat for weapon damage is 'Daedric' without specific numbers). This helps but by itself is not adequate (plus I'm not sure the player community would like the change). In effect what this is doing is creating catagories to be compared data could still create a rough curve based on these generalized stat descriptions then place them on a scale 1-10 and create a rough predictive formula (within the confidence intervals) and have a general idea of which skills are in the top tier (maybe not their exact rankings but pretty close...and more data would put closer and closer).
3) add more variables, like synergies (this can increase the complexity by multiples or possibly exponentials, if done correctly).
4) make immunity possible (kind of like in diablo, where some NPCs would be completely immune to a certain damage type). This renders a highly specified build to be rendered useless....though in the current form it would be physically or magically immune ....perhaps breaking up the stats further (this adds more variables also increasing the complexity) ...maybe holy damage, fire damage, ice damage, lightning damage, piercing damage, blunt damage, slicing damage, projectile damage etc... Where a player may stack for each (or several of these) both offensively and defensively.
5) Create stat packages on gear so a gear would have both a physical and a magical component which would be roughly equal. ( this maintains the integrity of all abilities when min/maxing, it does not help with complexity).
6) more secondary and tertiary effects on skills. As skills become more complex it becomes harder to create simple programs which analyze all skills and increases the time input by a programmer (having to write skill specific code is time consuming, while not a complete fix as the time input needed to solve the problem increases then more people are deterred from attempting). This can probably be worked around by automated analysis of combat logs....unless the combat logs are made fuzzier (instead of x ability causes y damage to target, it shows the target take x 'magical' damage...again players probably won't like this sort of vagueness).
7) Triggered effects (either procs, which could be mathematically calculated unless they are done vaguely, or more ally triggered effects, like those present in the game...even so it could probably be determined how often an individuals friends press x...but it would be more complicated, remeber complexity is our friend).
8) Time of day effects, for vampire and ww skills ... These would actively change the way abilities work based on time of month or time of day. Further weather related changes , say if it is raining then fire magic is lowered but maybe lightning damage is increased ...and in snow storms maybe ice damage is increased. Again complexity makes it harder.
9) More shifting global buffs, food bonuses, and additional triggered and automatic buffs/debuffs related to various events. Make them vague as possible too...remember vauge increases the amount of data needed and makes the answer more fuzzy. This also adds complexity which is our friend.
10) periodic changing of abilities (yes an automated process will quickly overcome this but if a point can be reached where the abilities are changed frequently enough then the program that analyzes the abilities also needs to be frequently updated...this method (while a pain for Zos) is a bigger pain for the person deconstructing the data....if done correctly....this might be disliked by the players though as the gear/spec they build is frequently changed and they cannot specialize...catch 22 here.
With adequate time I am sure I could provide more ideas for improving this aspect...its fairly simple though, increase complexity, increase vagueness and it becomes more difficult (probably never impossible but much like a firewall...the difficulty acts as a deterent to hackers....this makes the overall system more robust and better). This is similar to the tools that the devs probably already use to compare and balance abilities except they are accessed and reverse engineered from the end output while the developer approach is from the inputs and the equations.
I realize your eyes are probably rolling in the back of your head...especially if you have made it this far...that said I hope you understand and I would love some feedback or not your call.
Edited by Faugaun on January 31, 2015 5:17PM