Player population now compared to launch

Altissimus

ZoS won't publish subscriber numbers, but that doesn't stop us speculating. So the question is, based on your friends' presence or absence, the numbers still in yoiur guilds, the activity in key trading locations in your specific factions, where do you estimate player numbers to now be?

"launch numbers" basically refers to the player base during early access and the first week following launch.

Thunderchief

21-40% of launch numbers

Whoever put 61-80% is either lying or is completely unaware of what has happened.

I optimistically voted for 21-40% though I fear it might be worst than that. I'm quite confident that it is less than 1/3 of players with accounts still subbed.

ArRashid

61-80% of launch numbers

I think there are still many players (ofc some who didn't care about the game at all left). They are just no longer in a "WAVE" like they were in the first month.

People are now dispersed almost equally among 1-50 zones, with veteran zones being almost empty, and the rest (that didn't reroll) is stuck in Craglorn or Cyrondil.

I've made a new character yesterday to prepare for upcoming changes to stamina, and Stros M'kai was FULL of people.. seriously, almost always at least 2-4 ppl in sight at all times..

ItsMeToo

Player base has increased since launch

Someone had to select this one. Just doing my part in trying to make a nice bell-curve for your poll. LOL

Nazon_Katts

Player base has increased since launch

He obviously didn't get the memo, that the last option has to be 'Squirrel!'. But this one will kinda do too, though.

Singular

5-20% of launch numbers

Thunderchief wrote: »

Whoever put 61-80% is either lying or is completely unaware of what has happened.

I optimistically voted for 21-40% though I fear it might be worst than that. I'm quite confident that it is less than 1/3 of players with accounts still subbed.

Yeah, I was waffling too.

I wonder how many people just try MMOs and then leave after the free trial (not that this game has one). It must be a huge percentage - like 80-90%. Because, well, people differ and most people who try a game aren't going to commit to it.

So that's why I choose the number I did. Also, this game has some issues that have been well discussed on other threads. For me, it's just not compelling. I feel like I have to play (b/c of the sub) rather than being excited to play and planning out my game time (as I did w/my other game).

Plus, in each of the guilds I was in, before I started dropping a lot of them, more than half the members had not logged in for more than 2 weeks to months.

Mitrenga

21-40% of launch numbers

I believe at least 60% of the player base is still around but not spending much time on ESO. In terms of gaming hours, there is a dramatic decrease, especially on the VR zones.

Phaistos

Why should we pull numbers out of thin air without any kind of facts?
The OP admitted that this is all speculation. I call it pointless and a waste of time, since there is no merit to any guess.

Haxer

41-60% of launch numbers

Well, I can only speak for my guild, and myself, and the seven friends I got to buy ESO. None of us are subbed or playing anymore.

Guppet

5-20% of launch numbers

Of the 38 people in my guild only 5 have been on in the past 2 weeks. From what other guilds are saying, that's pretty normal.

GreySix

21-40% of launch numbers

My guess is as good as anyone else's, so ... yeah

kieso

5-20% of launch numbers

guild of 60 odd, no one logs in anymore on avg I see 3 people online

Altissimus

5-20% of launch numbers

Phaistos wrote: »

Why should we pull numbers out of thin air without any kind of facts?
The OP admitted that this is all speculation. I call it pointless and a waste of time, since there is no merit to any guess.

"Facts" are verified statements, in this context based on observation and measurement. Therefore the statement "guild of 60 odd, no one logs in anymore on avg I see 3 people online" constitutes a fact for the purposes of this discussion. Whether you choose to believe that fact is another question; if 100 people are posting much the same thing you could be encouraged to do so, versus a situation where one person is claiming that and 99 are claiming the opposite. Hence the poll - the modal voting based off multiple sources of empirical evidence (observed, measured) actually presents a pretty accurate picture.

Anyway, I was just curious.

Wifeaggro13

21-40% of launch numbers

Altissimus wrote: »

ZoS won't publish subscriber numbers, but that doesn't stop us speculating. So the question is, based on your friends' presence or absence, the numbers still in yoiur guilds, the activity in key trading locations in your specific factions, where do you estimate player numbers to now be?

"launch numbers" basically refers to the player base during early access and the first week following launch.

there is no way they retained more then 40% of the sales. Game was way to messed up in end game. If the broken quests and phasin didnt chase you off in the first month, Balance and Poorly designed end game did in the second.

david271749

5-20% of launch numbers

It's obvious. I used to be annoyed at how many players there were. I couldn't do any group bosses or public dungeons and be challenged, because it was just too crowded. Now it's the opposite. I can't find anybody to do group dungeons with. There is no reward for doing them a second time, which makes it even harder. I have to sit and wait at a group boss for someone else to show up.

wrlifeboil

61-80% of launch numbers

In other words, playable accounts. I think that many people are still subscribed or in their first 30 day trial period.

Whether they now play as often as they did during launch is a different question and would have a different answer.

Tabbycat

41-60% of launch numbers

I'd guess more than 40% but less than 60%. But I don't have access to all the zones so I don't know where everyone is. But I do still see a lot of players running around, especially during peak times.

I think that as ZOS continues to improve the game (new content, bug fixes, game improvements), we'll likely start to see the game growing again as players who were frustrated with bugs and such begin to return. This will be especially true once grouping issues are resolved and the Veteran leveling system is improved.

Altissimus

5-20% of launch numbers

wrlifeboil wrote: »

In other words, playable accounts. I think that many people are still subscribed or in their first 30 day trial period.

Whether they now play as often as they did during launch is a different question and would have a different answer.

Yeah. I signed up for six months. I thought I'd be playing this game at least a year or two.

In reality I haven't logged in since May. I might have returned if they'd revised the VR end game (like they said they would) but I'm not sure now - even if they do I think it'll be too late to save it.

Roll on the inevitable but undesirable f2p model.

fredarbonab14_ESO

No significant change in player base

^^^ "ZoS won't publish subscriber numbers, but that doesn't stop us speculating."

Why? Whenever I play the game its always populated with players every where I go. Should I be concerned about the absolute numbers for some reason, that escapes me now? What is really your point?

the.dzeneralb16_ESO

41-60% of launch numbers

After the initial month of any new MMO the numbers drop significantly, usually around half.

ShADoW0s

41-60% of launch numbers

fredarbonab14_ESO wrote: »

^^^ "ZoS won't publish subscriber numbers, but that doesn't stop us speculating."

Why? Whenever I play the game its always populated with players every where I go. Should I be concerned about the absolute numbers for some reason, that escapes me now? What is really your point?

You should be concerned with the player, since thats what makes this game possible.

FrauPerchta

5-20% of launch numbers

The folks I see when leveling my latest character (mid-20s) are all folks that have hit vet, can't stand vet and hope that Devs will fix vet so rather than leaving ESO till it is fixed they are leveling another character which they will also park when they hit vet.

SilverWF

41-60% of launch numbers

I think, at least a half of players are not loggin in anymore

Lalai

61-80% of launch numbers

Probably somewhere around 60-70% assuming it's the normal launch loss, after players do the first 30 days, maybe first 60, and then move on. Which seems to be pretty typical.

Anecdotal evidence is not representative of actual sub numbers. The amount of players each person typically sees doesn't necessarily mean an MMO is doing bad. FFXIV:ARR, my guild, all my linkshells, my friends.. all disappeared around the two month in mark. Forums were filled with threads just like this one, all with people identifying the same thing. Server underpopulated, guilds empty, linkshells empty, game is dying.. yadda yadda. They still have over 1 million subs. Heck, there are even threads over in the Wildstar forums saying that their game is already dying, and tons of people are leaving (they also haven't given numbers, but did state that launch went better than expected, purchase-wise). This type of speculation is part of nearly every game launch (with WoW being probably the only exception)... and even then people have been saying it's dying, and getting empty on their forums for years. Even when games release sub numbers, people then speculate that "oh those must be bot accounts" or "those are subs that haven't run out yet cause people stupidly paid ahead"... there's literally nothing that satisfies the "game is dying" breed of people.

Even assuming the most pessimistic is correct, why does it matter? So you can justify hate for the game, or try and have some statistic to prove to others that they should hate the game too? It's certainly not to help the developers, as they're already going to have the statistics, along with a huge compilation of feedback from a variety of sources. Population statistics to users are fairly useless. You could say that you want to know if the game is losing subs so you don't invest time in something that is going to go under.. but all MMOs go that route. So if you're playing them, that's already what you're doing. Not to mention that even if they released sub numbers we don't know what that minimum number is they need in order to keep things P2P, so what seems like low numbers to some may not mean the game is going F2P either. If you're concerned with population because you aren't seeing people in game, and not seeing people isn't fun for you.. knowing the sub numbers doesn't magically help that. Being told there's a million subs (in the case of FFXIV:ARR) didn't revive my guild or magically allow me to see more people online.

But hey, whatever floats your boat I guess... or sinks it.

Wifeaggro13

21-40% of launch numbers

Lalai wrote: »

Probably somewhere around 60-70% assuming it's the normal launch loss, after players do the first 30 days, maybe first 60, and then move on. Which seems to be pretty typical.

Anecdotal evidence is not representative of actual sub numbers. The amount of players each person typically sees doesn't necessarily mean an MMO is doing bad. FFXIV:ARR, my guild, all my linkshells, my friends.. all disappeared around the two month in mark. Forums were filled with threads just like this one, all with people identifying the same thing. Server underpopulated, guilds empty, linkshells empty, game is dying.. yadda yadda. They still have over 1 million subs. Heck, there are even threads over in the Wildstar forums saying that their game is already dying, and tons of people are leaving (they also haven't given numbers, but did state that launch went better than expected, purchase-wise). This type of speculation is part of nearly every game launch (with WoW being probably the only exception)... and even then people have been saying it's dying, and getting empty on their forums for years. Even when games release sub numbers, people then speculate that "oh those must be bot accounts" or "those are subs that haven't run out yet cause people stupidly paid ahead"... there's literally nothing that satisfies the "game is dying" breed of people.

Even assuming the most pessimistic is correct, why does it matter? So you can justify hate for the game, or try and have some statistic to prove to others that they should hate the game too? It's certainly not to help the developers, as they're already going to have the statistics, along with a huge compilation of feedback from a variety of sources. Population statistics to users are fairly useless. You could say that you want to know if the game is losing subs so you don't invest time in something that is going to go under.. but all MMOs go that route. So if you're playing them, that's already what you're doing. Not to mention that even if they released sub numbers we don't know what that minimum number is they need in order to keep things P2P, so what seems like low numbers to some may not mean the game is going F2P either. If you're concerned with population because you aren't seeing people in game, and not seeing people isn't fun for you.. knowing the sub numbers doesn't magically help that. Being told there's a million subs (in the case of FFXIV:ARR) didn't revive my guild or magically allow me to see more people online.

But hey, whatever floats your boat I guess... or sinks it.

I dont hate the game but i dont think the Retention is anywhere near 70%. I am pretty sure the mismangement post launch is going to hurt it greatly. Imbalance, phasing and VR grind is killing it

yenkin2001b14_ESO

21-40% of launch numbers

While this is pure speculation, of course, the evidence there is,
1. Empty VR zone, I just got to VR1 and nobody is playing in that zone, very few. Some of the veteran mobs are very tough and I don't see anyone in the public dungeons at all.
2. Guilds, one of my guilds completely collapse, we are lucky to see 1 or two players on at a time. The others maybe there are a couple of players on at the same time.

My Prediction, F2P before Christmas, and by 2016 gonna have a small server population playing because it fits a niche, but doubt they will top more that a couple of 100K active players.

Blackwidow

5-20% of launch numbers

We will see soon enough just how the population is doing.

Some see it now and others are in complete denial.

Lalai

61-80% of launch numbers

Wifeaggro13 wrote: »

Lalai wrote: »

Probably somewhere around 60-70% assuming it's the normal launch loss, after players do the first 30 days, maybe first 60, and then move on. Which seems to be pretty typical.

Anecdotal evidence is not representative of actual sub numbers. The amount of players each person typically sees doesn't necessarily mean an MMO is doing bad. FFXIV:ARR, my guild, all my linkshells, my friends.. all disappeared around the two month in mark. Forums were filled with threads just like this one, all with people identifying the same thing. Server underpopulated, guilds empty, linkshells empty, game is dying.. yadda yadda. They still have over 1 million subs. Heck, there are even threads over in the Wildstar forums saying that their game is already dying, and tons of people are leaving (they also haven't given numbers, but did state that launch went better than expected, purchase-wise). This type of speculation is part of nearly every game launch (with WoW being probably the only exception)... and even then people have been saying it's dying, and getting empty on their forums for years. Even when games release sub numbers, people then speculate that "oh those must be bot accounts" or "those are subs that haven't run out yet cause people stupidly paid ahead"... there's literally nothing that satisfies the "game is dying" breed of people.

Even assuming the most pessimistic is correct, why does it matter? So you can justify hate for the game, or try and have some statistic to prove to others that they should hate the game too? It's certainly not to help the developers, as they're already going to have the statistics, along with a huge compilation of feedback from a variety of sources. Population statistics to users are fairly useless. You could say that you want to know if the game is losing subs so you don't invest time in something that is going to go under.. but all MMOs go that route. So if you're playing them, that's already what you're doing. Not to mention that even if they released sub numbers we don't know what that minimum number is they need in order to keep things P2P, so what seems like low numbers to some may not mean the game is going F2P either. If you're concerned with population because you aren't seeing people in game, and not seeing people isn't fun for you.. knowing the sub numbers doesn't magically help that. Being told there's a million subs (in the case of FFXIV:ARR) didn't revive my guild or magically allow me to see more people online.

But hey, whatever floats your boat I guess... or sinks it.

I dont hate the game but i dont think the Retention is anywhere near 70%. I am pretty sure the mismangement post launch is going to hurt it greatly. Imbalance, phasing and VR grind is killing it

Thinking a lot of people left doesn't automatically lead to hate.. and hate could be a very strong word, and not necessarily correct for a lot of people. I don't think everyone predicting gloom and doom hates the game.

What I tend to take issue with, is when the gloom and doom crowd tries to tell other people to hate the game, or they're going to hate the game.. or basically tries to destroy other people's fun. Whether they mean it that way or not, that's what happens.

My post was more questioning the reason for needing to state something about numbers, or needing to know them. Really, knowing them doesn't change anything for players.

Edited to add: I also wouldn't really place retention at 70% for sure or anything.. I would say it's more around the 60% number.. but somewhere between those two honestly wouldn't surprise me. Heck, being around the 50% range also probably wouldn't surprise me. However, seeing as the range was basically either over 60% and doing well, or under that and doing really really crappy (as that grouping of percentages went waaaay low).. I did the 60%+ one.

Nox_Aeterna

Honestly i have no idea , ofc , it is easy to notice that in the guilds many are not logging anymore, but outside that , there is very little chance for me to really check on numbers , in the end , the mega server idea does cover this kind of thing well. We dont see server with low or high populace.

Since zen does not show the numbers themselves , i cant really guess on this.

Still , if zen are not showing the numbers , considering usually most companies who get good ones would try to tell everyone they can , we can guess they are not that good to begin with.

CaffeinatedMayhem

Are we counting the bots as players at launch? I've seen a 90%+ decrease in bots, and since (my estimate) 50%+ of the players at launch were bots, it's not so much a player decrease as now we can see real players vs. gold farmers.

GreySix

21-40% of launch numbers

thatlaurachick wrote: »

Are we counting the bots as players at launch? I've seen a 90%+ decrease in bots, and since (my estimate) 50%+ of the players at launch were bots, it's not so much a player decrease as now we can see real players vs. gold farmers.

Point.