Refining raw materials now has a reduced rate of obtaining gold mats.

miloflipper · August 23

There seems to be a strange reduction in the amount of gold mats being produced when refining raw materials. Until recently we used to get a healthy 3+ gold mats per stack of 200, but that has apparently changed and now we are likely to get only 1 or 2 rarely.

Please could you compensate the rate as I believe the RNG has entered into a probability domain that is less generous at the moment.

Many thanks!

tmbrinks · August 23

It's been a estimated 5.625% chance per refine of gold materials ever since Meticulous Disassembly was introduced (with 3/3 + MD). So the expected number of gold mats when refining 200 materials is 1.13

Source: ~10 million materials refined since Meticulous Disassembly was added on 08/03/2021.

9,962,230 materials refined. 56,247 gold materials recieved. 5.646% drop rate per refine actually recieved.

So, you just had really, really, really good RNG before and are now getting the normal, expected, drop rate.

Data is publically shared in the link in my signature.

LootAllTheStuff · August 24

Thanks for compiling and posting those stats - that sample size is impressive!

ArielSira · August 24

Wouldn't that be 0,5646% then?

virtus753 · August 24

ArielSira wrote: »

Wouldn't that be 0,5646% then?

It’s 0.5646% per raw mat, no? But 5.646% per refine, where each refine takes 10 raw mats.

ArielSira · August 24

virtus753 wrote: »

ArielSira wrote: »

Wouldn't that be 0,5646% then?

It’s 0.5646% per raw mat, no? But 5.646% per refine, where each refine takes 10 raw mats.

You're right, I missed the "refine is always per 10" part.

tmbrinks · August 24

Yes. It'd be 0.5646 per mat. But since you can only refine in batches of 10, I felt it was more appropriate to report it on a per-refine basis, rather than a per-mat basis.

agelonestar · August 24

tmbrinks wrote: »

It's been a estimated 5.625% chance per refine of gold materials ever since Meticulous Disassembly was introduced (with 3/3 + MD). So the expected number of gold mats when refining 200 materials is 1.13

Source: ~10 million materials refined since Meticulous Disassembly was added on 08/03/2021.

9,962,230 materials refined. 56,247 gold materials recieved. 5.646% drop rate per refine actually recieved.

So, you just had really, really, really good RNG before and are now getting the normal, expected, drop rate.

Data is publically shared in the link in my signature.

I totally agree with this. As a rough rule of thumb, you're doing OK at 1:200 and anything better than that is a bonus.

LootAllTheStuff · August 24

For comparison, I've seen the chance for perfect roe pegged at between 1:100 and 1:200. (My own stats are on the lower side of that range FWIW)

DoofusMax · August 24

@tmbrinks knows how to make my data-nerd heart go pitty-pat. Just sayin'.

LPapirius · August 24

tmbrinks wrote: »

It's been a estimated 5.625% chance per refine of gold materials ever since Meticulous Disassembly was introduced (with 3/3 + MD). So the expected number of gold mats when refining 200 materials is 1.13

Source: ~10 million materials refined since Meticulous Disassembly was added on 08/03/2021.

9,962,230 materials refined. 56,247 gold materials recieved. 5.646% drop rate per refine actually recieved.

So, you just had really, really, really good RNG before and are now getting the normal, expected, drop rate.

Data is publically shared in the link in my signature.

Thank you for taking the time to post this data. It's good info to know.

Do you happen to know the drop rate for perfect roe? I know I've seen it posted, but I can't remember where.

TIA

tmbrinks · August 24

LPapirius wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

It's been a estimated 5.625% chance per refine of gold materials ever since Meticulous Disassembly was introduced (with 3/3 + MD). So the expected number of gold mats when refining 200 materials is 1.13

Source: ~10 million materials refined since Meticulous Disassembly was added on 08/03/2021.

9,962,230 materials refined. 56,247 gold materials recieved. 5.646% drop rate per refine actually recieved.

So, you just had really, really, really good RNG before and are now getting the normal, expected, drop rate.

Data is publically shared in the link in my signature.

Thank you for taking the time to post this data. It's good info to know.

Do you happen to know the drop rate for perfect roe? I know I've seen it posted, but I can't remember where.

TIA

I haven't tracked it in the same way, but when I completed my master anglers it was around 1%, maybe slightly under. 1 in 100 to maybe 1 in 120 or so.

LPapirius · August 24

tmbrinks wrote: »

LPapirius wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

It's been a estimated 5.625% chance per refine of gold materials ever since Meticulous Disassembly was introduced (with 3/3 + MD). So the expected number of gold mats when refining 200 materials is 1.13

Source: ~10 million materials refined since Meticulous Disassembly was added on 08/03/2021.

9,962,230 materials refined. 56,247 gold materials recieved. 5.646% drop rate per refine actually recieved.

So, you just had really, really, really good RNG before and are now getting the normal, expected, drop rate.

Data is publically shared in the link in my signature.

Thank you for taking the time to post this data. It's good info to know.

Do you happen to know the drop rate for perfect roe? I know I've seen it posted, but I can't remember where.

TIA

I haven't tracked it in the same way, but when I completed my master anglers it was around 1%, maybe slightly under. 1 in 100 to maybe 1 in 120 or so.

That's about what I remember it being; 1 perfect roe/stack of fish. It's way too low, I know that. How long does it take to catch 100 fish anyway? An hour?

DoofusMax · August 24

LPapirius wrote: »

That's about what I remember it being; 1 perfect roe/stack of fish. It's way too low, I know that. How long does it take to catch 100 fish anyway? An hour?

Depends on whether you're using a food buff like Artaeum Pickled Fish Bowl, have Sharp-as-Night's companion perk, have the Reel Technique craft tree perk, and stuff like that, but it's about 5 fish per minute if you have the stuff to speed up the bites and don't care about trophy fish. So maybe 20 or 30 minutes if there are several full (not partially fished) spots nearby. I did the 50 fish for the Golden Pursuit on the Ebonheart docks in about 10 or 15 minutes with food, CP perk, and Sharp's perk. I unslotted Angler's Insticts, btw, because I wanted fish to fillet not to sell (and still didn't get a single Roe from that batch).