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Introduction

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One of my favorite phrases that has come from reading ToT discussions is about the game "picking it's winners." The reason for that is because although the original poster of that concept wasn't able to share concrete information and the idea seems cooky, the question that emerges is very good. That question is the following.

Are there inherent biases in the game, where do they exist, and how might they disadvantage specific players?

I do believe that I have found some places where there are inherent biases built into the game.

Issue 1 - The first versus second player choice
Issue 2 - Repeat cards in the tavern

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Issue 1 - The first versus second player choice

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Around June of 2025, I reset my stats as to use an addon that was new to me "Imp-ressive Stats" by @imPDA . I highly recommend the use of this addon because it makes recording alot of pertinent game data easy.

I've found the following win rate over the about 2000 games that I've played since using this addon. Note, the vast majority of these games are in the ranked mode.

Overall Winrate - 81.00%
As First Player Winrate - 88.2%
As Second Player Winrate - 74.3%

From that data alone, it could be said that the game is "picking it's winners," but it isn't too rare for games to have a first versus second player imbalance. This data simply shows that 1st player position has nearly a 15% advantage compared to being second player. I speculate that the reason for this issue is due to the power level of cards that can be purchased by the first player on a regular basis and that power level is a deliberate choice by the designers of the game since there hasn't been balance changes to ToT cards for about 2 years of time.

But there is another way that the game is negligent in presenting a game mode that is fair. Due to my messaging of a ZOS team member, I can present to the reader a case study in how a game issue is pointed out and remains not only unresolved, but remains without Zos team member feedback.

On February 15, I shared with the team member that the disparity between being 1st and second player exists on an account basis. I shared this data which has been censored to protect player names.

On February 21, I shared that over 1832, I had incurred a 54 game disparity toward going second more often.

On February 27, I shared that that the disparity had become a 61 games toward going second more often.

On March 10, I shared that there had become a 69 game disparity toward going second more often.

For the first time, I will share that after about a month of time, the disparity of going second more often has grown to 75 games accross 2027 games.

That is to say that the game is clearly biased toward me being second player. That is to say that the game is picking it's winners.

My play data UI regularly looks like these images. Notice the "Pick" column which is indicating 1st versus 2nd player. This picture was one shared with the ZOS team member.



A keen reader may ask what do I expect from the games leadership. A basic response would be one thing. When players say that there is no communication, the is one example of what they mean. There has been no communication to me in response to my sharing of data which shows a flaw in the games RNG generating system.

One may also wonder if leadership just hasn't had enough time to fix the issue. The problem with that theory is that we have been discussing the games poor RNG system for years.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8154022/#Comment_8154022

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/8141543/#Comment_8141543

It wasn't long after that post of mine that I noticed my tendency to go second more and more grew. So although it seems like something changed for my specific account, the issue still persists overall. I'm sharing @kmfdm 's link here in case they would like to comment on any new observations.

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Issue 2 - Repeat cards in the tavern

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I believe that the game tends to favor repeating tavern cards. I have these screenshots so share the different types of way the issue is problematic.

















Note, I've had way more games start with Ebony/Kwama Mine chains, Unfathomable Secrets/Bargain for Knowledge/Threads of Fate bunches, and Devotional Gaoler/Mournhold Clergy groupings than I can reasonably share in this posting.

The repeat cards issue happens all of the time. Although I can't provide a concrete statistic, based on what I've shown here as well as the handful of games that I don't have screenshots for, it must be very statistically unlikely for a single player to experience so many Ebony/Kwama Mine repeats in the opening tavern. This specific combo happens in one of my games on what seems to be a weekly basis. While I'm sorry that I can't give a concrete statistic, I think that the proof is here.

This is also an issue that I have been discussing for at least a couple of years.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/655051/the-rng-seeding-issue-is-grotesque-grotesque-seeding-issue-issue-seeding-issue/p1

In that linked to thread, player @sayswhoto provides multiple videos of who the issue happens during a game. That's to say that I'm also not the only player experiencing the poor Tavern seeding. But I say to try this all out yourself. If you see A Pilfer, Plunder, or Squawking Oratory in the Tavern, then I'm telling you that you will see another one right away. Test out my theory which is that cards were programmed into the game as part of coding categories and that the RNG system which picks tavern cards has a hard time refreshing categories, therefore picking the same card category several times before the RNG seed is forced to do something else.

Based on my images, it should also be obvious how the game does sort of pick it's winners. If the game favors certain tavern patterns, then a player who buys into that tavern first will be advantaged. I speculate that this reasoning is why so many players can playe Crow successfully. The game is biased toward such a thing happening and buying just purple cards is incredibly easy to do. It's also incredibly toxic for players to start a game with something like 10 gold 15 power or endless agents. That is to say that the repeat card issue is also a type of balance issue that exasperates the power level of certain cards or strategies.

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Conclusion

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Overall, as crazy as it may sound, I do have to conclude that the game does "pick it's winners." It does so through RNG mechanisms that are biased to the extent that we can build data from those issues and that players can feel those issues while playing a game. The players who are disadvantaged are ones who tend to go second against other specific players as well as players who become victim of card repeats due to their strategic affinities as an individual.

Thank you for reviewing the information here and please do post your feedback about my observations as well as any of your own observations that are pertinent to the thread.