A few month ago at noon there was a PuG with 12 players(I got invited, unusual that full PuGs exist in empty campaign) and about 3 randoms taking an outpost and another 4 players at base whith no action and probably no players anywhere else so 19 players and 1 bar. Shortly after it switched to 2 bars so it seems to be 20 players per bar.
Maybe you are right and have luck with your assumption, but this: "and probably no players anywhere else" sounds like something with a very low chance...A few month ago at noon there was a PuG with 12 players(I got invited, unusual that full PuGs exist in empty campaign) and about 3 randoms taking an outpost and another 4 players at base whith no action and probably no players anywhere else so 19 players and 1 bar. Shortly after it switched to 2 bars so it seems to be 20 players per bar.