Doesn't statistics state that this scenario should happen every couple of years, not days?

Personofsecrets · March 28

spartaxoxo · March 28

I just had a similar match the other day.

Personofsecrets · March 29

spartaxoxo wrote: »

I just had a similar match the other day.

My third from the starting position in 2 weeks. Many more, not counted, if looking at mid-match contract combos.

It's not like I'm playing thousands of games a day.

Something seems very wrong.

Seraphayel · March 29

I‘ve seen this happen quite a lot and I’m not sure if there’s anything wrong with it. I‘ve see way worse RNG happen in the last weeks (three additional patron usages in a single turn, netting me a lose although I was 25 power ahead).

Personofsecrets · March 30

The designers should redesign Mora or even get rid of it. It has easily made for the worst ESO experiences that I've gotten to enjoy.

- Unfun
- Too swingy
- More forced lines of play
- Curse / Kiss cards rarely meet the criteria of being thought provoking and when they are it is a pretty crappy situation
- The deck doesn"t sufficiently fulfill thr goal of making speedier interesting games. The games are often a RNG slog
- It's not TOT

spartaxoxo · March 30

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

Seraphayel · March 30

I like to use Mora to counter Crow and it works, especially when the opponent hasn’t bought power generating cards and already favored the patron.

Personofsecrets · March 30

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

spartaxoxo · March 30

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

Didn't state that you weren't qualified. Just giving my own experience. Mora games are significantly faster than the games I'm used to. But, I also have had bad RNG as my opponents often get multiple contract cards early

Personofsecrets · March 30

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

Didn't state that you weren't qualified. Just giving my own experience. Mora games are significantly faster than the games I'm used to. But, I also have had bad RNG as my opponents often get multiple contract cards early

Yes, just making sure that other know that I'm basing what I mention off of the game timer.

Because peoples experiences can differ, one thing I'm wondering is how many others are getting the games that take forever because they go back and fourth to 80 points. It happens fairly regularly to me when Mora is a patron and signifigantly prolongs the game.

spartaxoxo · March 31

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

Didn't state that you weren't qualified. Just giving my own experience. Mora games are significantly faster than the games I'm used to. But, I also have had bad RNG as my opponents often get multiple contract cards early

Yes, just making sure that other know that I'm basing what I mention off of the game timer.

Because peoples experiences can differ, one thing I'm wondering is how many others are getting the games that take forever because they go back and fourth to 80 points. It happens fairly regularly to me when Mora is a patron and signifigantly prolongs the game.

I seldom get such things. Mostly either I will get the contract cards early or they will, and then the game is over quickly after that. I might be doing something wrong. It's not a popular deck, or at least doesn't seem to be when I play. It's still mostly Pelin or Crow. Mostly Pelin.

Personofsecrets · March 31

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

Didn't state that you weren't qualified. Just giving my own experience. Mora games are significantly faster than the games I'm used to. But, I also have had bad RNG as my opponents often get multiple contract cards early

Yes, just making sure that other know that I'm basing what I mention off of the game timer.

Because peoples experiences can differ, one thing I'm wondering is how many others are getting the games that take forever because they go back and fourth to 80 points. It happens fairly regularly to me when Mora is a patron and signifigantly prolongs the game.

I seldom get such things. Mostly either I will get the contract cards early or they will, and then the game is over quickly after that. I might be doing something wrong. It's not a popular deck, or at least doesn't seem to be when I play. It's still mostly Pelin or Crow. Mostly Pelin.

I think that what happens in my games is that I'm tending to pickup Mora cards so that the opponent is denied them. Mora tends to give the opponents a bunch of extra resources to work with, so even after passing the 40 point threshold, the more than normal resources tend to give opportunities that let players meet the Prestige thresholds that they need to in order to keep playing. And even when playing up to 50 or 60 score, the right Mora contract chain can still be a blowout since it can boost one to 80...

spartaxoxo · March 31

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

Mora does make the game speedier, I'll give it that. It's so speedy that skill is way less of a factor than slower decks. But, I do like it for speeding up NPC games

The Mora games that I play tend to average out around the normal game time which is 9 minutes for me. Some mora games are shorter, but many go past 10 minutes. That's why I wrote that point - not something that is totally unqualified that's out of nowhere.

Didn't state that you weren't qualified. Just giving my own experience. Mora games are significantly faster than the games I'm used to. But, I also have had bad RNG as my opponents often get multiple contract cards early

Yes, just making sure that other know that I'm basing what I mention off of the game timer.

Because peoples experiences can differ, one thing I'm wondering is how many others are getting the games that take forever because they go back and fourth to 80 points. It happens fairly regularly to me when Mora is a patron and signifigantly prolongs the game.

I seldom get such things. Mostly either I will get the contract cards early or they will, and then the game is over quickly after that. I might be doing something wrong. It's not a popular deck, or at least doesn't seem to be when I play. It's still mostly Pelin or Crow. Mostly Pelin.

I think that what happens in my games is that I'm tending to pickup Mora cards so that the opponent is denied them. Mora tends to give the opponents a bunch of extra resources to work with, so even after passing the 40 point threshold, the more than normal resources tend to give opportunities that let players meet the Prestige thresholds that they need to in order to keep playing. And even when playing up to 50 or 60 score, the right Mora contract chain can still be a blowout since it can boost one to 80...

I pick them up as well. It just they tend to come up either all on my turn or the opponents, they almost never seem to be evenly spread. At least not the stronger ones. So, matches tend to be pretty lopsided. Sometimes in my favor, sometimes not as much. I'm sure part of that is just my lack of experience with dealing with this deck. So I haven't figured out it's weak link as much as I have the other decks.

Personofsecrets · March 31

Just had a good old Mora matchup where I got combo 4 from only Contracts popping up in the tavern.

El_Borracho · April 3

I've had a variation of this draw both in my favor and against me. Its ridiculous.

sayswhoto · April 16

Since the NA PC servers are down and I can't log in to lose ToT leaderboard rank, I will attempt to estimate the probability of occurrence that the event in the screenshot happens every few days. Warning I'm not a statistician.

A few assumptions since I can't actually log into the game to check:

There are a 100 cards in the Tavern initially? Not really sure.
There are usually about 3 or 4 copies of each card at the start (it can be less). I will just say 4.

The probability of the contract cards drawn in a row is::
p = (4/100)*(4/100)*(3/400) = 0.000048

I'll assume a binomial distribution for the probability to have this occur a few times in a given number of trials. Let's say some one plays 50 games over several days, and we want to know the probability it occurs between 3 to 5 times.

You can look up the binomial distribution online. I'm trying to calculate a range so will need multiple values and a combination of probabilities calculated from the binomial distribution.

p = 0.000048 (calculated form above)
x (number of specific occurrence) = 0,1,2,3,4, and 5
n (number of trials) = 50

P(3<=x<=5) = 2.1639e-9 (which is 0.0000000021639)

What this means is that: unless there is about half a billion ToT players, this specific occurrence shouldn't really happen every few days.

Personofsecrets · April 16

sayswhoto wrote: »

Since the NA PC servers are down and I can't log in to lose ToT leaderboard rank, I will attempt to estimate the probability of occurrence that the event in the screenshot happens every few days. Warning I'm not a statistician.

A few assumptions since I can't actually log into the game to check:
There are a 100 cards in the Tavern initially? Not really sure.

There are usually about 3 or 4 copies of each card at the start (it can be less). I will just say 4.

The probability of the contract cards drawn in a row is::
p = (4/100)*(4/100)*(3/400) = 0.000048

I'll assume a binomial distribution for the probability to have this occur a few times in a given number of trials. Let's say some one plays 50 games over several days, and we want to know the probability it occurs between 3 to 5 times.

You can look up the binomial distribution online. I'm trying to calculate a range so will need multiple values and a combination of probabilities calculated from the binomial distribution.

p = 0.000048 (calculated form above)
x (number of specific occurrence) = 0,1,2,3,4, and 5
n (number of trials) = 50

P(3<=x<=5) = 2.1639e-9 (which is 0.0000000021639)

What this means is that: unless there is about half a billion ToT players, this specific occurrence shouldn't really happen every few days.

I'm not the most certain on how to go about finding the probability of a full house in TOT. Just going off of memory, there are 8 unique card types in each deck. Each of those card types comes with most commonly 2 or 3 copies of each card type. If I remember correctly, Toll of Flesh/Silver, Harvest Season, and Black Sacrament may be exceptions with 4 copies. Anyhow... in a popular poker variant, Texas hold'em, there would be 9 cards seen between 2 people.

In poker, there are less than half of the number of cards in the deck and there are also 4 copies of every card, so that sort of gives a general idea of how "rare" some of the often occurring TOT game variants are. A Full House is one of the better hands that someone can get in Poker and yet, despite the increased deck size and more often than not 3 maximum copies of a card type, a Full House seems to happen from the TOT starting position every few games.