Heartwood does not appear to be increased by the event

virtus753 · January 24

In harvesting nearly 1k wood nodes in Blackwood (during the event last November) and in the Gold Coast, Hew's Bane, and Wrothgar zones (during the current event), I have seen drop rates for Heartwood that suggest to me the event bonus is not working on this particular mat.

Outside of events, across nearly 5,000 pulls of (non-survey) resources nodes of all types, I have an overall drop rate on furnishing mats of 19.93%.

With a drop rate of 20% outside of events, the drop rate during events should be 36%, as the event adds a second independent pull every time you harvest a node. For heartwood my drop rate during the past two events is currently sitting at 21.83%.

For other types of nodes, during events that increase resources I have drop rates on furnishing mats all within 3 percentage points of the expected 36%. Heartwood alone remains significantly off. The distribution pattern (for 1x, 2x, 3x, 4x, etc.) for other furnishing mats also adheres reasonably well to the expected values during an event.

The distribution pattern for Heartwood, however, is much closer to the expected values outside of events:

Expected values outside of the event (with PH):

1x Heartwood: 7.50%
2x Heartwood: 8.13%
3x Heartwood: 3.75%
4x Heartwood: 0.63%

Observed drop rate of Heartwood during the past two events (with PH):

1x Heartwood: 9.6%
2x Heartwood: 7.8%
3x Heartwood: 3.8%
4x Heartwood: 0.45%
5x-8x: none

Expected during an event (with PH) with a 20% drop chance each for the base and event pulls:

1x: 12%
2x: 13.56%
3x: 7.2%
4x: 2.22%
5x: 0.7%
6x: 0.24%
7x: 0.05%
8x: 0.004%

Lugaldu · January 24

It is possible to get more than 5 heartwood?
I had recently 1x five heartwood and was already surprised, I always thought 4 is maximum.

virtus753 · January 24

Lugaldu wrote: »

It is possible to get more than 5 heartwood?
I had recently 1x five heartwood and was already surprised, I always thought 4 is maximum.

Theoretically, yes. I've seen it for every craft except wood. Normally (no event, no Plentiful Harvest), you can get 1x or 2x of a furnishing mat from a node. My drop rates in thousands of pulls are 15% for 1x and 5% for 2x.

With Plentiful Harvest slotted and maxed, you have a 50% chance to get another pull at Heartwood if you got Heartwood on the initial draw. If Plentiful Harvest triggers successfully, the game rolls again for 1x or 2x in the same distribution (15%:5% --> 3/4ths of the time you get 1x, the other 1/4th of the time you get 2x).

That means with Plentiful Harvest outside of an event, you can get up to 4x Heartwood from one node (theoretical chances listed above). I see this in my stats at close to the rates I expect.

During an event, you get two independent pulls from the same node. Plentiful Harvest can proc on neither, one, or both. If you got 2x Heartwood from the base pull, Plentiful Harvest procced on the base pull, you got 2x from that PH proc, you got 2x Heartwood from the second pull, Plentiful Harvest procced again on the second pull, and you got 2x from that PH proc too, you would end up with 8x Heartwood. The chances of that happening are 0.004%, if indeed it's a 15% chance to get 1x, 5% chance to get 2x, and Plentiful Harvest is at 50%.

(ETA: I have gotten 6x of a furnishing mat at a rate of 0.27%, which is very close to the expected value of 0.24%. Never have I gotten more than 4x Heartwood, though.)

Where did you pull this 5x Heartwood? The fact you did means that somewhere the event bonus is working. But my stats suggest it isn't - they follow the same pattern I get outside of events/event zones very closely. It may be that it works only in one zone? I'm not sure. But I'm fairly confident in saying the event bonus is not evident for me. The numbers match the non-event theoretical chances too well and are too far from the event chances and from the data I have for all other types of nodes.

ETA2: Just did another 50 wood nodes in Wrothgar over lunch, since that's the zone I'm having more trouble finding nodes in due to the popularity of harvesting during events. A perfect 20% drop rate for Heartwood. By itself that could be a bad streak, but it's consistent with the drop rates I've gotten so far. My average should be going up, if the event bonus is working. Instead it's getting closer to non-event values.

virtus753 · January 24

I should also add: PC-NA. Perhaps something has gone wrong on my server or platform but not on others. Regrettably I won't be able to test on EU or on console.

virtus753 · January 25

Lugaldu wrote: »

It is possible to get more than 5 heartwood?
I had recently 1x five heartwood and was already surprised, I always thought 4 is maximum.

You can also always get 5x Heartwood out of a heavy sack. Those are not affected by Plentiful Harvest or the events. 5x a furnishing mat is one of their drops.