Simple Math for Price Calculation (U40)

november1983 · September 2023

I know I'm a bit late for this topic. But since everyone (or at least most) expect a drop to 10% and below considering the price of golden jewelry mats. 10x the amount of golden mats = 1/10 of the price at best?

Under normal circumstances this would be the case. But ZOS is doing something very interesting when it comes to the required amount of golden mats to improve rings/necklaces. They double the required amount.

So to eliminate the missing variable of the absolute amounts of mats we just start with the hypothesis that we have 100% for both sides.

100% = amount we need to improve a ring
100% = amount avaialble on the market

x = 100% / 100% => 1 that's the pre update market situation

Update influence:

2x = amount we need to improve a ring
10x = amount on the market

x= 100% or factor 1

2x / 10x => 0.2 => 20% theoretical new price level considering the implemented and known changes.

So the new price should balance itself at something between 10% - 20% after the panic sales that will surely start after downtime.

If we take a bit of a bold approach here we can say that ZOS is actually increasing the gold value of golden mats as long as the price stays between 10%-20%. Which is covered by simply math.

Hope anyone can follow me in my math excursion.

tmbrinks · September 2023

The demand will also likely increase though as well.

1. Some players who did not upgrade their jewelry at all might decide to upgrade at approximately 1/5th the cost (8 "grains/platings" vs. 40 "grains" today)
2. Master writs might become worth doing for jewelry, leading to higher usage.

Zircon will be interesting. It's dropping from 30 grains to upgrade to 4 (assuming they just follow the structure they've set for the other crafts). It might also be more difficult to get zircon in the future, if they change the loot tables for daily writs to match that of the other crafts. You don't get green/blue/purple mats from writ rewards, and jewelry was done differently, to give you all of them.

Woodworking has the problem of it's purple mat being much more expensive than the others, due to the only sourcing of purple wood items is from the final boss kill of veteran content, or random pulls from chests/mobs, which are diluted with the entire loot pool. (BS and Clothing have items that drop from ALL bosses, especially clothing, which is why elegant lining isn't expensive).

Jewelry has the advantage in that the drops from the final boss is a 50/50 chance to get jewelry/weapon, so once you have the full set of dungeon loot, you will get a higher number of jewelry piece drops than you will get wood weapons (since those again are diluted by all the metal weapons you can get), so that might be enough to sustain the zircon costs.

P.S. This is all predicated on the statement of "bringing it in line" with the other crafts, so making an assumption that the mechanics would be similar to those. I would hope that this includes the introduction of a jewelry hireling as well, which would provide an alternate source of terne/iridium/zircon items, if they are no longer dropping from daily writ rewards.

Long story short, I would venture that for Chromium, 20% of the cost is the floor, and that we'll likely see the price reduced by around 75% (to 25% of its current cost), when factoring in the potentially higher usage of those materials.

CrashTest · September 2023

It'll be less than the price of tempers and maybe fall as low as Kutas because there will not only be a 1000% increase in supply and a massive 80% decrease in upgrade cost, but there will be more sources of Chromium than any other gold mat.

lillybit · September 2023

CrashTest wrote: »

It'll be less than the price of tempers and maybe fall as low as Kutas because there will not only be a 1000% increase in supply and a massive 80% decrease in upgrade cost, but there will be more sources of Chromium than any other gold mat.

Interested in how you figure there's more sources of Chromium without a hireling even. Have I missed something?

tmbrinks · September 2023

lillybit wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

It'll be less than the price of tempers and maybe fall as low as Kutas because there will not only be a 1000% increase in supply and a massive 80% decrease in upgrade cost, but there will be more sources of Chromium than any other gold mat.

Interested in how you figure there's more sources of Chromium without a hireling even. Have I missed something?

Gold jewelry drops in game. There are very few sources of gold weapons/armor that drop

CrashTest · September 2023

lillybit wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

It'll be less than the price of tempers and maybe fall as low as Kutas because there will not only be a 1000% increase in supply and a massive 80% decrease in upgrade cost, but there will be more sources of Chromium than any other gold mat.

Interested in how you figure there's more sources of Chromium without a hireling even. Have I missed something?

Bad wording on my part. I should've said jewels will be much easier to upgrade than other gear because platings will be much easier to get than the other mats and we have more sources overall to get gold jewelry.

Necrotech_Master · September 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

The demand will also likely increase though as well.

1. Some players who did not upgrade their jewelry at all might decide to upgrade at approximately 1/5th the cost (8 "grains/platings" vs. 40 "grains" today)
2. Master writs might become worth doing for jewelry, leading to higher usage.

Zircon will be interesting. It's dropping from 30 grains to upgrade to 4 (assuming they just follow the structure they've set for the other crafts). It might also be more difficult to get zircon in the future, if they change the loot tables for daily writs to match that of the other crafts. You don't get green/blue/purple mats from writ rewards, and jewelry was done differently, to give you all of them.

Woodworking has the problem of it's purple mat being much more expensive than the others, due to the only sourcing of purple wood items is from the final boss kill of veteran content, or random pulls from chests/mobs, which are diluted with the entire loot pool. (BS and Clothing have items that drop from ALL bosses, especially clothing, which is why elegant lining isn't expensive).

Jewelry has the advantage in that the drops from the final boss is a 50/50 chance to get jewelry/weapon, so once you have the full set of dungeon loot, you will get a higher number of jewelry piece drops than you will get wood weapons (since those again are diluted by all the metal weapons you can get), so that might be enough to sustain the zircon costs.

P.S. This is all predicated on the statement of "bringing it in line" with the other crafts, so making an assumption that the mechanics would be similar to those. I would hope that this includes the introduction of a jewelry hireling as well, which would provide an alternate source of terne/iridium/zircon items, if they are no longer dropping from daily writ rewards.

Long story short, I would venture that for Chromium, 20% of the cost is the floor, and that we'll likely see the price reduced by around 75% (to 25% of its current cost), when factoring in the potentially higher usage of those materials.

i think one thing to keep in mind with jewelry (green, blue, purple) tempers is dolmen/dragon/harrowstorm farming

all of those sources only drop jewelry in green to purple quality

i mean if you look at alikr dolmens thats like what 20+ people getting jewelry at each dolmen every 5 min, nearly 24 hours a day lol

the mat cost for green-purple jewelry will go down significantly

tmbrinks · September 2023

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The demand will also likely increase though as well.

1. Some players who did not upgrade their jewelry at all might decide to upgrade at approximately 1/5th the cost (8 "grains/platings" vs. 40 "grains" today)
2. Master writs might become worth doing for jewelry, leading to higher usage.

Zircon will be interesting. It's dropping from 30 grains to upgrade to 4 (assuming they just follow the structure they've set for the other crafts). It might also be more difficult to get zircon in the future, if they change the loot tables for daily writs to match that of the other crafts. You don't get green/blue/purple mats from writ rewards, and jewelry was done differently, to give you all of them.

Woodworking has the problem of it's purple mat being much more expensive than the others, due to the only sourcing of purple wood items is from the final boss kill of veteran content, or random pulls from chests/mobs, which are diluted with the entire loot pool. (BS and Clothing have items that drop from ALL bosses, especially clothing, which is why elegant lining isn't expensive).

Jewelry has the advantage in that the drops from the final boss is a 50/50 chance to get jewelry/weapon, so once you have the full set of dungeon loot, you will get a higher number of jewelry piece drops than you will get wood weapons (since those again are diluted by all the metal weapons you can get), so that might be enough to sustain the zircon costs.

P.S. This is all predicated on the statement of "bringing it in line" with the other crafts, so making an assumption that the mechanics would be similar to those. I would hope that this includes the introduction of a jewelry hireling as well, which would provide an alternate source of terne/iridium/zircon items, if they are no longer dropping from daily writ rewards.

Long story short, I would venture that for Chromium, 20% of the cost is the floor, and that we'll likely see the price reduced by around 75% (to 25% of its current cost), when factoring in the potentially higher usage of those materials.

i think one thing to keep in mind with jewelry (green, blue, purple) tempers is dolmen/dragon/harrowstorm farming

all of those sources only drop jewelry in green to purple quality

i mean if you look at alikr dolmens thats like what 20+ people getting jewelry at each dolmen every 5 min, nearly 24 hours a day lol

the mat cost for green-purple jewelry will go down significantly

Fair. I forget about dolmen jewelry, I do so few of them.

I'd much rather level up through master writs myself, dolmens are mind-numbingly boring to me.

Necrotech_Master · September 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The demand will also likely increase though as well.

1. Some players who did not upgrade their jewelry at all might decide to upgrade at approximately 1/5th the cost (8 "grains/platings" vs. 40 "grains" today)
2. Master writs might become worth doing for jewelry, leading to higher usage.

Zircon will be interesting. It's dropping from 30 grains to upgrade to 4 (assuming they just follow the structure they've set for the other crafts). It might also be more difficult to get zircon in the future, if they change the loot tables for daily writs to match that of the other crafts. You don't get green/blue/purple mats from writ rewards, and jewelry was done differently, to give you all of them.

Woodworking has the problem of it's purple mat being much more expensive than the others, due to the only sourcing of purple wood items is from the final boss kill of veteran content, or random pulls from chests/mobs, which are diluted with the entire loot pool. (BS and Clothing have items that drop from ALL bosses, especially clothing, which is why elegant lining isn't expensive).

Jewelry has the advantage in that the drops from the final boss is a 50/50 chance to get jewelry/weapon, so once you have the full set of dungeon loot, you will get a higher number of jewelry piece drops than you will get wood weapons (since those again are diluted by all the metal weapons you can get), so that might be enough to sustain the zircon costs.

P.S. This is all predicated on the statement of "bringing it in line" with the other crafts, so making an assumption that the mechanics would be similar to those. I would hope that this includes the introduction of a jewelry hireling as well, which would provide an alternate source of terne/iridium/zircon items, if they are no longer dropping from daily writ rewards.

Long story short, I would venture that for Chromium, 20% of the cost is the floor, and that we'll likely see the price reduced by around 75% (to 25% of its current cost), when factoring in the potentially higher usage of those materials.

i think one thing to keep in mind with jewelry (green, blue, purple) tempers is dolmen/dragon/harrowstorm farming

all of those sources only drop jewelry in green to purple quality

i mean if you look at alikr dolmens thats like what 20+ people getting jewelry at each dolmen every 5 min, nearly 24 hours a day lol

the mat cost for green-purple jewelry will go down significantly

Fair. I forget about dolmen jewelry, I do so few of them.

I'd much rather level up through master writs myself, dolmens are mind-numbingly boring to me.

same, i dont really farm dolmens either, but the people who do will likely end up offloading some of those jewelry mats into the open market for any number of reasons (the farmers may not have summerset and cant use it, who knows)

tsaescishoeshiner · October 2023

People only have 3 jewelry slots, compared to 7 for armor slots. The difference is that only most builds use 7 Light/Medium armor, whereas every build uses 3 jewelry pieces. On the other hand, gold jewelry will drop from vet trials, arenas, and other reward sources.

So if we ignore the current price and amount available, there's reason to think Chromium could get as low as Dreugh Wax, maybe cheaper.

Galeriano · October 2023

november1983 wrote: »

I know I'm a bit late for this topic. But since everyone (or at least most) expect a drop to 10% and below considering the price of golden jewelry mats. 10x the amount of golden mats = 1/10 of the price at best?

Under normal circumstances this would be the case. But ZOS is doing something very interesting when it comes to the required amount of golden mats to improve rings/necklaces. They double the required amount.

So to eliminate the missing variable of the absolute amounts of mats we just start with the hypothesis that we have 100% for both sides.

100% = amount we need to improve a ring
100% = amount avaialble on the market

x = 100% / 100% => 1 that's the pre update market situation

Update influence:

2x = amount we need to improve a ring
10x = amount on the market

x= 100% or factor 1

2x / 10x => 0.2 => 20% theoretical new price level considering the implemented and known changes.

So the new price should balance itself at something between 10% - 20% after the panic sales that will surely start after downtime.

If we take a bit of a bold approach here we can say that ZOS is actually increasing the gold value of golden mats as long as the price stays between 10%-20%. Which is covered by simply math.

Hope anyone can follow me in my math excursion.

The math aint mathing. With simple math theoretical gold value of golden material should drop 10 times and gold value of improving item from purple to gold quality should drop 5 times. 0,2 that You've got is a theoretical new price of improving an item compared to old cost not the price change of a single material.

november1983 · October 2023

Galeriano wrote: »

The math aint mathing. With simple math theoretical gold value of golden material should drop 10 times and gold value of improving item from purple to gold quality should drop 5 times. 0,2 that You've got is a theoretical new price of improving an item compared to old cost not the price change of a single material.

Heya, nearly forgot about that post until I saw a reply. So sorry for not replying myself

.

The base model here is simply: Offer to Demand. I know there are several other factors that influence the price scale of materials or items. But I used the most basic system for my calculation. and that's the ratio between the two values that were and are available.

I hope I did get the critics on my calcualtion right. Otherwise you need to elaborate a bit.

Edit: Took me a while to get into the previous reply. The moment you exclude all other factors and assume a closed economic system. 100% demand to 100% amount of wares. Then prices are equal to costs. Hope that helps

Zodiarkslayer · October 2023

november1983 wrote: »

... The moment you exclude all other factors and assume a closed economic system.

But can you? I think not.

november1983 wrote: »

100% demand to 100% amount of wares.

Players are "horders" in ESO. 100% NEVER hit the market. General rule of thumb: The lower the drop chance or the higher the entry bars to acquire any item, the crazier the demand overhang.

november1983 wrote: »

...
Then prices are equal to costs.

Nah. Not really. Setting the real world discussion aside, it doesn't apply to ESO anyway.
In ESO we cannot quantify a lot of the major price building costs.
Storage costs are literally zero because of ESO+ and all the free base game accounts, that were thrown around in the past. A lot of players utilise these as mule accounts. Infinite storage for free! How do you put that into numbers?
Production costs are equally difficult to quantify.
When I farm ressources for selling, the only thing that I consume and that cannot come back to me is time. Am I supposed to sell four chromium platings in exchange for one hour of my life back?
Or for 0 gold, because I didn't spend a single gold coin to acquire the four platings?

ESO economy doesn't work that way.

I recommend a book on basic (micro) economics.
In my time the standard was Mankiw: Principles of economics.

RichestGuyinEso · October 2023

Chromium will most likely be at a price of ~10-15% of its current price directly after patch, quickly dropping further and below the 10% tho because of reasons stated here in thread already. For people interested in me estimating things in U40 u can check here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEhDa_CA-XA&t

november1983 · October 2023

Zodiarkslayer wrote: »

november1983 wrote: »

... The moment you exclude all other factors and assume a closed economic system.

But can you? I think not.

I really hope i did the quoting right. That's more annoying than anything. The quoting system not the reply.
If I try any attempt to give a prognosis I have to. Actually. Probably not the desired reply but it is as it is. Sadly.

Zodiarkslayer wrote: »

november1983 wrote: »

100% demand to 100% amount of wares.

Players are "horders" in ESO. 100% NEVER hit the market. General rule of thumb: The lower the drop chance or the higher the entry bars to acquire any item, the crazier the demand overhang.

That's completely correct. 100% will never hit the market. but do they after the changes? And I'm a "horder" myself. I know how much some other players have. and it's amazing how many zeros those numbers can have.^^

Zodiarkslayer wrote: »

I recommend a book on basic (micro) economics.
In my time the standard was Mankiw: Principles of economics

I think I will love that book. Just checked for it on google to get a short preview what it's about. So big thx