Crown Boxes Bad Drop Rates Rant

AnduinTryggva · March 2023

I've just purchases 15 boxes which are btw pretty expensive. I did get maybe two lila cards. Otherwise only here and there blue quality item and ZERO bonus card.

Sorry guys, I know that due to inflation ZOS has to see how to make more money. But your buyers are also subjected to inflation. This bad drop rate for such an expensive random item is really putting me off.

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

i opened 25 crates cause they came with the shade polymorph and i would have to agree that the vast majority of the boxes had low tier garbage

i think i made about 170ish crown gems from 25 crates due to the quantity of dupes and conversions

i only bought the bundle for the shade polymorph, the crown crates were basically a bonus for me so i was not expecting to get anything useful from them to begin with lol (i normally never buy crates, i just save up endeavors to buy stuff from the crates if something deems interesting)

ZOS_Kraken · March 2023

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic.

Thank you for your understanding.

Amottica · March 2023

The odds for the crates are published. Some sites have track crate drops which demonstrate that those extremely rare drops are in fact extremely rare.

I understand the frustration with the crates but we have the information to know just how things are expected to turn out and 15-25 crates are not a lot of crates for anyone looking to get a coveted item.

AnduinTryggva · March 2023

Can you link these sites?

Also I am not complaining about not getting the super rare items. But I should get a bit more lila cards and specifically a few times a 6th card.

I have to observe that the number of bonus card drops dropped significantly and silently over the last few crown crate type appearances in the crown store so I suspect that the drop rate has been downgraded.

Katheriah · March 2023

Amottica wrote: »

I understand the frustration with the crates but we have the information to know just how things are expected to turn out and 15-25 crates are not a lot of crates for anyone looking to get a coveted item.

While that might be true, let's also not forget that the value for the actual money the crates cost is not great. Cosmetics in this game are really expensive.

Amottica · March 2023

Katheriah wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

I understand the frustration with the crates but we have the information to know just how things are expected to turn out and 15-25 crates are not a lot of crates for anyone looking to get a coveted item.

While that might be true, let's also not forget that the value for the actual money the crates cost is not great. Cosmetics in this game are really expensive.

I agree that what we get from crates are not great.

While you quoted the second part of my comment, the first part made it clear that we have information that tells us what we can actually expect from the crates. So we have that information available that tells us we should not expect anything great from the crates.

I will refrain from commenting on the cost of cosmetics in ESO since that is not the topic of this thread.

Zyva · March 2023

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

red_emu · March 2023

I agree. Splashed the cash to get the shade polymorph and... All blue cards plus trash. One gold card with emote, that's it. Happy for the shade but I wish I didn't spend the money now 😔

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

red_emu wrote: »

I agree. Splashed the cash to get the shade polymorph and... All blue cards plus trash. One gold card with emote, that's it. Happy for the shade but I wish I didn't spend the money now 😔

the biggest problem i have with the crates is all the consumable garbage which you can get repeats of and then have to manually convert to piddly amounts of gems

i would be far less bothered by the crates if they 1) only gave cosmetics and 2) removed previously obtained cosmetics from the drop pool instead of allowing dupes

that way even if theres 100 items in the crates, you would, at maximum, have to buy 100 crates to get everything

it would certainly be a lot more consumer friendly than the current garbage lol

Nord_Raseri · March 2023

15 crates. 2 purple - both furnishings (which apparently can no longer be traded for gems). Most were blue. Got a few that were nothing but potions poisons and crown repair kits. Snugglorr the Magnificent curses my name.

AnduinTryggva · March 2023

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Are these numbers up to date? in 15 crates you have at minimum 60 cards bonus cards not counting. Statistically you should get 8 legendary rewards and statistically 1 apex reward. I know this is not guaranteed and just probability. But with statistically 8 legendary cards I would still expect to have at least 1 or 2 drop for 15 crates when I have really bad luck.

But legendary drops are really low recently.

As I said my last 15 crate package yielded just blue, a very few lila and at best one gold item.

And ZERO bonus card.

VaranisArano · March 2023

In addition to ZOS' odds linked above, this site tracks the results from players who've shared them: https://www.crowncrates.com/

Looks like it's stopped collecting data in 2021 though. Anyways, it's a decent point of comparison to past years' seasons.

Soarora · March 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Are these numbers up to date? in 15 crates you have at minimum 60 cards bonus cards not counting. Statistically you should get 8 legendary rewards and statistically 1 apex reward. I know this is not guaranteed and just probability. But with statistically 8 legendary cards I would still expect to have at least 1 or 2 drop for 15 crates when I have really bad luck.

But legendary drops are really low recently.

As I said my last 15 crate package yielded just blue, a very few lila and at best one gold item.

And ZERO bonus card.

Legally, the chances have to be posted, so if it’s inaccurate there’s a problem. I have noticed different crates seem to get different reactions out of the majority on getting good/bad drops but I’m not sure if it’s because the chances are changing or if it’s by chance/by bad sampling (loudest people win).

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Are these numbers up to date? in 15 crates you have at minimum 60 cards bonus cards not counting. Statistically you should get 8 legendary rewards and statistically 1 apex reward. I know this is not guaranteed and just probability. But with statistically 8 legendary cards I would still expect to have at least 1 or 2 drop for 15 crates when I have really bad luck.

But legendary drops are really low recently.

As I said my last 15 crate package yielded just blue, a very few lila and at best one gold item.

And ZERO bonus card.

their help page suggests its fairly accurate: Updated 11/04/2022 03:35 PM

when i rolled my 25 crates from the polymorph bundle, i think only about 5-6 of the crates had bonus items, looking at the help page it does not give the chance to get a bonus item

im not sure i understand how they do their rolls because all of those chances add up to well over 100% (about 293%)

the 1 guaranteed superior or above item is still more likely to be superior if its 86% chance to roll one of those

edit: to include that since its an official zos page and it wasnt up to date, im sure that could be a problem legally for them

dragonlord500 · March 2023

I guess my luck is on the Average-High side of the crate system because I got quite a few gold rewards from the 25 crates I bought but didn't get a single apex reward and it set my crown gems from 16 gems to 235 gems total. but I got some furniture and motif books so I cant turn them into gems

huntgod_ESO · March 2023

I stopped buying crates two sets back because it was just frustrating to buy 30 crates and get jack diddly squat...just dupes for gems. I used to be good for 45-60 crates but the return was just too low.

Necrotech_Master · March 2023

dragonlord500 wrote: »

I guess my luck is on the Average-High side of the crate system because I got quite a few gold rewards from the 25 crates I bought but didn't get a single apex reward and it set my crown gems from 16 gems to 235 gems total. but I got some furniture and motif books so I cant turn them into gems

that is a bug i believe right now, see zos_kevins post here https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/7838936#Comment_7838936

the TL;DR is the bugged items include:

Legendary Reward: Crown Crafting Motif 67: Welkynar Style - 33 gem value
Legendary Reward: Crown Crafting Motif 55: Dreadhorn Style - 33 gem value
Legendary Reward: Orb of the Spirit Queen - 33 gem value
Epic Reward: Reach Chandelier, Hagraven - 13 gem value
Epic Reward: Rite of the Harrowforged - 13 gem value

Ezhh · March 2023

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

im not sure i understand how they do their rolls because all of those chances add up to well over 100% (about 293%)

I'm pretty sure those are the chances for a crate to contain a reward at those levels, not the chances of any individual card being at a certain level. For example, there is a 98% chance a crate will contain at least one common card (I don't think I ever saw a crate that didn't) and an 86% chance that same crate will contain a superior (blue) card (at least one card will always be this level or higher, and it's way more likely to be this level than higher). The most common result when opening crates seems to be one blue and three white cards, so this seems pretty accurate.

2% chance of an apex means on average you'd expect one apex per 50 crates. Is this still accurate? I don't know.

Groterdan · April 2023

Agreed.

Btw always nice to see a post is moved by a mod but not commented on😭

AnduinTryggva · April 2023

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Thinking about it: "you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior": What does this mean?

One per crate? Or one per crate collection?

If the latter all guys purchasing the 15 crates have three times lower drop rates than those purchasing 5 crate collection and so on. If this is the case this HAS to change ASAP.

Also: "superior" is not really superior. These item are actually very low value. So thinking about it this crown crate thing is pretty low value for the amount of money.

Necrotech_Master · April 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Thinking about it: "you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior": What does this mean?

One per crate? Or one per crate collection?

If the latter all guys purchasing the 15 crates have three times lower drop rates than those purchasing 5 crate collection and so on. If this is the case this HAS to change ASAP.

Also: "superior" is not really superior. These item are actually very low value. So thinking about it this crown crate thing is pretty low value for the amount of money.

its always been per crate, so out of the 4 cards, 1 will be superior+

Luke_Flamesword · April 2023

Most funny thing is that they even don't list chances for radiant apex, only this: "Some Crown Crates contain Radiant versions of Apex rewards". It's that even legal to not write it, when it's seperate category with different chances? With this logic they just can write "you have 98% chance for common rewards and smaller chance for better rewards"

This is just not transparent to not write how exactly radiant apex are set...

MagicalLija · April 2023

As much as it sucks and I think it should be changed, don't buy crates expecting good stuff, get them to expect crown gems which you can use to get stuff you want quicker than endeavours.

Amottica · April 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

Zyva wrote: »

Honestly it did seem low to me as well, maybe I just got very unlucky, or these drop rates are worse than previous.

Where are the drop rates listed? percentages?

official zos page on it https://help.elderscrollsonline.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/49828/~/what-are-the-odds-for-crown-crate-rewards-in-the-elder-scrolls-online?

for a quick glance
Reward Groups | Percentage Chance
Common Rewards | 98%
Fine Rewards | 72%
Superior Rewards | 86%
Epic Rewards | 21%
Legendary Rewards | 14%
Apex Rewards | 2.0%

and you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior or better

Thinking about it: "you are only guaranteed 1 of the rolls to be superior": What does this mean?

One per crate? Or one per crate collection?

If the latter all guys purchasing the 15 crates have three times lower drop rates than those purchasing 5 crate collection and so on. If this is the case this HAS to change ASAP.

Also: "superior" is not really superior. These item are actually very low value. So thinking about it this crown crate thing is pretty low value for the amount of money.

I am sure there are a lot of questions that can be asked but many can be answered via a simple google search. Below are the two top results after the ESO help page and I expect there are more if one looks further down the page.

While results from a dozen or even a couple dozen crates are meaningless since it is so small of a sample, these sites gather the results from a much larger pool of crates being opened. They certainly have information concerning your previous questions but may also have other information you may be interested in. All from a quick five-word google search.

https://www.crowncrates.com/
https://benevolentbowd.ca/games/esotu/eso-crown-crate-drop-rates/

Hope this helps. Oh, and any questions about the results are best sent to the hosts of the sites. The first one even has a link to contact them.

Elrender · April 2023

same were with Stonelore crates. Ive bought 90 (!!!) crates and all my loot was thrash, only 1 (one!) mount that was not even the new ones and very bad drop rate of all other items compared to all crates that were before (ive bought all crates that was released in period from june 2022 to december 2022 like 15-30crates per category and has 1-3 mounts in it and many epic cards along with bonus ones).
So in summary all new crates that ZOS creates comes with bad drop rate. [snip]

[edited for bashing]

Shagreth · April 2023

Me and my wife both got the bundle (yeah, I am aware we're contributing to the problem, but we loved the poly) that's 50 crates in total, got *** basically. [snip], never had this bad luck before.

[edited for bashing]

Kiyakotari · April 2023

I’m now convinced the 4-packs, being a worse deal, have better drop rates than the 25-packs or 15-packs. This because I “blew” my ESO+ crowns on a 4-pack of crates on both my main and secondary accounts this last week, and both times got the apex Ragebound Horse mount. My tinfoil hat promptly activated.

Irhak · September 2023

Time to revive the rant I guess since my friends started talking about it again. The official drop rates makes no sense at all. How there is 98% of common and 86% of superior drop rates? It does not up to 100% chance. Summing it all up gives like 293% total.

Can someone explain to me that table?

Properly made table would have like "you have 50% of x rank, 25% of y rank and 25% of z rank" and it would sum up to 100%. Beside that they would have like "you have A% of bonus card and odd of drop there would is 75% of y rank and 25% of z rank". That would be nice, clear and easy to understand drop rates...

Right now it looks like some cards have to be counted for 3-4 ranks to odds be like that.