So when the second player starts with 6 coin is it worth even playing on or just eating the 10 mins?

Neonisys · July 2023

My very unscientific method shows that just leaving immediately is much faster than playing on. A second player 6 coin start virtually guarantees a loss, out of 40 unranked matches which I've played and the other player has got 6 coin start I have lost 34 of those games. All 40 games lasted longer than 10 minutes.

Just condede, do something else and queue later. It isn't worth the time sink.

Note: I am an average quality player

Edit 18/7 - Now 60 unranked matches with 6 coin second player. Lost 53 of those games.

AnduinTryggva · July 2023

It is not guaranteed that you lose if you go second but statistics show that out of 10 matches you'd probably lose about 6 against a first drawing player at equal skills.

Neonisys · July 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

It is not guaranteed that you lose if you go second but statistics show that out of 10 matches you'd probably lose about 6 against a first drawing player at equal skills.

My point was solely when second player gets a 6 coin start, not just a regular 5v5 start.

NeuroticPixels · July 2023

Thanks for the info. I’ll keep that in mind and see if I experience similar results... if I ever play ToT again. I imagine the decks that get chosen make a difference.

AnduinTryggva · July 2023

Don't understand your complaint. The extra gold on second turn is to slighty mitigate the disadvantage to go second. There are discussions that this extra coin is not enough.

But I cannot see how a 5g when going second can improve the situation for the person to go second...

rbfrgsp · July 2023

Most people believe it's more advantageous to go first, and some players have made threads with game data showing the odds of winning when going second are significantly lower

I don't think it's as simple as that. It depends on the flop of the tavern cards. Sometimes, a really nice 4- or 6-gold card appearing can give P2 an advantage as they can buy the more expensive card, or the 4 card AND treasury in their first turn.

Other times, the choice that player 1 gets while having free reign as first mover is the bigger advantage.

Seraphayel · July 2023

Basically it all depends on the tavern cards. It does not matter if you go first or second, it does matter what‘s in the tavern.

With 6 coins as player 2 you can get Luxury Goods + a good four coin card in round 2 or you can get a good card and treasury. But if the tavern just has one card for <6 coins and the first players get it, your turn as player 2 is basically wasted as you can only use treasury.

It really all boils down to tavern cards and that means RNG.

AnduinTryggva · July 2023

Not fully. The turn order has an impact on several levels.

I explain:

P1 = Player 1, drawing first
P2 = Player 2, drawing second

Already during patron selection P1 has a slight advantage because he can select one patron first which will impact P1 choice of his two patrons that he has to perform without knowing the fourth patron. P1 then can select the last patron and hence fix the patron set.

In round 1 P1 can pick a good card that is either 4g or 5g. This card is no longer available in the tavern but uncovers a card that could be as good or better but most likely not as good as the probability of a good card drop is smaller than a bad card drop. Or he could use the treasury to get a 2g treasury card (tc). The new cards go into the cooldown stack (this you need to remember).

Depending on patron selection P2 and/or rng has either 6g or 5g or even 4g. Let's assume he has 6g. In case P1 move uncovered a good card, maybe 6g, he can buy it. Or buy a good 4g and use the treasury. The new cards go into the cooldown stack (remember that they are in the cooldown stack).

Now P1 can play again and hope that P2 move uncovered another 4 or 5g card or he could use treasury again. New cards again go into the cooldown stack.

P2 is now in the same situation as P1 and his new cards go into cooldown stack.

Now here comes the next advantage for P1 with the end of turn 2. The cooldown stack is put back into the draw pile where they are mixed. P1 now has a good chance to get one or two or maybe all new cards in his hand to use for the tavern while P2 has to wait and watch. So P1 has as the first player the good chance to benefit from his new cards. This is another advantage for the player to go first which is often overlooked but often, to my experience, decisive in a match.

Seraphayel · July 2023

AnduinTryggva wrote: »

Not fully. The turn order has an impact on several levels.

I explain:

P1 = Player 1, drawing first
P2 = Player 2, drawing second

Already during patron selection P1 has a slight advantage because he can select one patron first which will impact P1 choice of his two patrons that he has to perform without knowing the fourth patron. P1 then can select the last patron and hence fix the patron set.

In round 1 P1 can pick a good card that is either 4g or 5g. This card is no longer available in the tavern but uncovers a card that could be as good or better but most likely not as good as the probability of a good card drop is smaller than a bad card drop. Or he could use the treasury to get a 2g treasury card (tc). The new cards go into the cooldown stack (this you need to remember).

Depending on patron selection P2 and/or rng has either 6g or 5g or even 4g. Let's assume he has 6g. In case P1 move uncovered a good card, maybe 6g, he can buy it. Or buy a good 4g and use the treasury. The new cards go into the cooldown stack (remember that they are in the cooldown stack).

Now P1 can play again and hope that P2 move uncovered another 4 or 5g card or he could use treasury again. New cards again go into the cooldown stack.

P2 is now in the same situation as P1 and his new cards go into cooldown stack.

Now here comes the next advantage for P1 with the end of turn 2. The cooldown stack is put back into the draw pile where they are mixed. P1 now has a good chance to get one or two or maybe all new cards in his hand to use for the tavern while P2 has to wait and watch. So P1 has as the first player the good chance to benefit from his new cards. This is another advantage for the player to go first which is often overlooked but often, to my experience, decisive in a match.

What you described is exactly what I said and has no other impact or RNG to it than the tavern card layout. I very much doubt that the chances for P1 are higher or generally better than the chances for P2 in this case when all of it is pure RNG. Every benefit P1 could eventually have in your example could be a benefit for P2 as well, simply depending on the tavern.

I can’t do the math with percentages, but I fail to see how one player starting first / second can have an advantage over the other player when there‘s a third party involved (tavern) that ultimately makes the decision who‘s favored and who‘s not in the first round(s).

DragonRacer · July 2023

My favorite is repeatedly starting first with Pelin and having 4-5 coin with an Armory card on the table for literally the first hand. So second place with the one gold head start gets 6 gold on their first hand and buys Armory straight off the bat.

The frequency with which this happens is just some incredible RNG hell on my part. I never, ever seem to get that sort of luck when I go second.

Neonisys · July 2023

DragonRacer wrote: »

My favorite is repeatedly starting first with Pelin and having 4-5 coin with an Armory card on the table for literally the first hand. So second place with the one gold head start gets 6 gold on their first hand and buys Armory straight off the bat.

The frequency with which this happens is just some incredible RNG hell on my part. I never, ever seem to get that sort of luck when I go second.

I just had one where I not only went first but had 2 power cards so only 3 coins, 1 raj agent on the board for 5. Lost without even playing a card. They got 6 coins naturally.

Seraphayel · July 2023

The thing is, how do you solve this issue? I mean one way would be to have five tavern cards that all cost 4-6 coin (and all players start at least with 4 or 5 coin cards), distributed equally. So there are 2 for 4, 2 for 5 and one for 6 coins. This way each player at least gets one of those cards. But is that a solution for the problem? Maybe not, but it makes it less of a problem overall. This would also mean nobody gets two cards in their first round (so no two Luxury Exports or whatever, I’ve seen this happen more than enough).

Necrotech_Master · July 2023

the 2nd player always starts with +1 coin, so getting a 6 coin first turn is very common unless decks like pelin or reach are in play, which have the +1 power starter cards (if both are in play that could be a potential -2 coin for that turn)