Honest question about anniversary market patterns

Saucy_Jack · April 2021

What surprised me about this event is that we had a huge influx of players from when Greymoor dropped, but it seemed like there were a bunch of things that DIDN'T have an anniversary-event price dip even with increased anniversary rewards from the larger playerbase, despite having significant price dips in past years.

For example: last year you could easily find ciphers for under 1mil, you could find mino chests for 100k a decent bit of the time, powdered mother of pearl flowed like water, etc.

This year it was rare for me to see ciphers below THREE mil, and I think the cheapest mino chest I ever saw was around 350k. And as for mats, I didn't see really ANYTHING taking a dip, except for maybe aetherial dust near the end there.

Been trying to figure out the reason for the stark market difference between this year and last, given that with the larger playerbase the anniversary price patterns should have remained relatively constant due to the corresponding increase in rewards opened. So what was different?

trackdemon5512 · April 2021

Ciphers - Usable CP hasn’t been increased in two years. 150% XP pots will be extremely useful going forward, esp for grinders.

Minotaur - not only was the motif removed from the crown store but we last had a DB/TG drop event more than a year ago in 2019 when it replaced the broken undaunted event in the fall. That year we had two of the DB/TG. Combine that with the motif drop rate being nerfed, few people doing the content, and an influx of new players looking to catch up and get the stuff and we get higher prices.

Nestor · April 2021

I tend to horde my motifs and recipes during events like this as the market saturates and prices drop. However, during both the Jester and Anniversary events, I did not notice much in the way of price drops. At least according to TTC (I sort from lowest to highest and throw out the first 3 to 5 prices to base my sell price)

lillybit · April 2021

Last year ciphers were a luxury, the people who could afford them generally didn't need the xp except to help level alts. They were just something that was nice to have for completionism sake and to make a bit of gold from.
This year with CP2.0 they're more of an essential item to many and demand drove the price up and is keeping it high.

I'm guessing the same reasoning applies in a more roundabout way to motifs. Doing Master Writs is an excellent way to gain CP so people are looking to expand their motif knowledge.

The Minotaur chest is a bit of an odd one as it's steadily gone up in price since its release. I guess less people are doing the daily and demand is still high, I just never got why everyone wants it so bad! But I got it way back when it was still cheap so never had to think about it much.

I don't remember mat prices being effected too much previous years but admittedly I don't buy or sell them very often.

Fennwitty · April 2021

There's also constant inflation since gold flows like water. I don't know exactly but feels like 20-30% since last year on most items.

AlnilamE · April 2021

Fennwitty wrote: »

There's also constant inflation since gold flows like water. I don't know exactly but feels like 20-30% since last year on most items.

I don't know. Soul gems are still selling below vendor prices.

And crafting mats are going to crash shortly below that again.

One thing I notice is that when I look for "unknown" motifs, they are all expensive, but that's because I'm not really missing that many.

When I check on my alts, there are plenty of cheap motifs out there.