Has something happened with Master Crafting Writ drop rate with the HotR update?

SGT_Wolfe101st · September 2017

I am wondering if anyone else is seeing a decrease in the drop rate for master crafting writs. Prior to the patch I would get 1 or 2 over the course of 2-3 days, never high voucher count but at least some activity. Since the launch I haven't gotten 1. I do my writs everyday and honestly the only reason I continue to do so is for the potential master writ. I am 7 days without anything. The other issue is I am 1 voucher short to buy an item I am after and it is really driving me crazy. Can I get that silly poison writ for 3 vouchers please???

Taleof2Cities · September 2017

If you're not keeping up with the full purple motif books learned (Ashlander, Morag Tong, Buoyant Armiger), that will detrimentally affect your chances at equipment master writs.

ZOS will keep adding the most recent purple motif books to the next quarter's patch. In other words, when Clockwork City debuts on Live, the motifs for Hlaalu, Redoran, and Telvanni will likely be added to the motif knowledge requirement.

After that it's simple RNG. Even if up to date on motif knowledge, it is totally possible for a master crafter to hit a "rough patch" for a few weeks ... like rolling several low numbers in a row on that 20-sided dice.

SGT_Wolfe101st · September 2017

I considered that the inclusion of new motifs was possibly causing some of the issue but that shouldn't hinder alchemy or glyph writs dropping. I have hit a slide and the desire to do them everyday with little to no reward is getting old. I have all the mats and recipes that I will ever need and 500g for a green in the guild store isn't worth the effort. I just wish the "knowledge" known was a trackable metric and not hidden behind RNG. I don't think that something that takes 9 months of effort to do should be so subjective.

davey1107 · September 2017

The voucher quests are quite cheap in guild stores. If you're in a hurry, buy one for 1k per voucher, and if you don't like paying then sell off the next one you earn and consider it a loan.

As for the drop rate, my theory has always been that the system has a gatekeeper mechanism that tries to keep a certain amount of an item flowing into the game, but not too many so as to crash the market. What this would mean for master writ rewards is that the RNG would fluctuate based on how many people are doing writs.

For example, if 1,000 people do them during a day, maybe the drop rate is 5%, generating 50 master writs for the game. But if 10,000 people come into the game and do writs, the system doesn't want to flood the market and drops the rate to 3%. Thus 300 writs are generated, so more formthe game but less per individual player.

I'm not certain this is how it works, but it seems to be a possibility. The drop rates always plummet when the game gets busier, then when the game is quiet I get tons more.

I_killed_Vivec · September 2017

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

If you're not keeping up with the full purple motif books learned (Ashlander, Morag Tong, Buoyant Armiger), that will detrimentally affect your chances at equipment master writs.

ZOS will keep adding the most recent purple motif books to the next quarter's patch. In other words, when Clockwork City debuts on Live, the motifs for Hlaalu, Redoran, and Telvanni will likely be added to the motif knowledge requirement.

After that it's simple RNG. Even if up to date on motif knowledge, it is totally possible for a master crafter to hit a "rough patch" for a few weeks ... like rolling several low numbers in a row on that 20-sided dice.

Does it really? Is that something new, or is it something that has supposed to have been in from the start?

I ask because I have two crafters at level 50 for all professions. One knows all the motifs (up to Morrowind), all the recipes. The other only knows what it needed to know to get to level 50 - I couldn't be bothered to do all the research all over again and I'd rather sell purple motifs than get a second character to learn them.

I have been doing top-level writs on both of these characters since writs became a thing, and master writs on both since they came out.

Up to the amount of variation you'd expect to see, there is no difference in the number or quality of master writs they receive (actually the less capable character has done slightly better, but as I say not significantly). And other people have mentioned the same thing here.

So as far as I can see there is no "motif knowledge requirement" .

And as someone else points out, that doesn't affect the provisioning writs...

Though equally, it is too early to tell. However, I have the feeling (possibly irrational I know, but still...) that drops of master writs has been nerfed.

I also have a feeling that refinement drops of tempers has been nerfed, and I'm pretty certain that nirn drops has been too (and these are based on larger samples).

But maybe I'm just getting paranoid

eso_nya · September 2017

It looks like sth might have happened, but that would be an increase in dropchances actually.

The mathematial average for me is 22 Writs with a total of 332 vouchers per week.
Worst week so far: 15 writs@80 vouchers (02-12 -> 02-18)
Best week so far: 26 writs@548 vouchers (03-26 -> 04-01)

Last week, excluding tomorrows runs that i havent done yet: 36 writs@601 vouchers. [Edit: Ended up with 44 writs@738 vouchers]
Might be a random fluctuation, but than, since july my mastercrafter is actually catching up to not-as-good-alts and all but one week have been above average (which also increased the average). There was an increase in 2-digit-reward writs.

What i dont think makes a difference (yet): ~one month ago, i my 8th toon maxed out the crafts, and one week ago number 9 maxed out. Their dropchances look normally low, considering the lack of motifs and not that many traits researched. They got some writs, but even together its a bit less than +0,5 writs/day.

Jayne_Doe · September 2017

I_killed_Vivec wrote: »

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

If you're not keeping up with the full purple motif books learned (Ashlander, Morag Tong, Buoyant Armiger), that will detrimentally affect your chances at equipment master writs.

ZOS will keep adding the most recent purple motif books to the next quarter's patch. In other words, when Clockwork City debuts on Live, the motifs for Hlaalu, Redoran, and Telvanni will likely be added to the motif knowledge requirement.

After that it's simple RNG. Even if up to date on motif knowledge, it is totally possible for a master crafter to hit a "rough patch" for a few weeks ... like rolling several low numbers in a row on that 20-sided dice.

Does it really? Is that something new, or is it something that has supposed to have been in from the start?

I ask because I have two crafters at level 50 for all professions. One knows all the motifs (up to Morrowind), all the recipes. The other only knows what it needed to know to get to level 50 - I couldn't be bothered to do all the research all over again and I'd rather sell purple motifs than get a second character to learn them.

I have been doing top-level writs on both of these characters since writs became a thing, and master writs on both since they came out.

Up to the amount of variation you'd expect to see, there is no difference in the number or quality of master writs they receive (actually the less capable character has done slightly better, but as I say not significantly). And other people have mentioned the same thing here.

So as far as I can see there is no "motif knowledge requirement" .

And as someone else points out, that doesn't affect the provisioning writs...

Though equally, it is too early to tell. However, I have the feeling (possibly irrational I know, but still...) that drops of master writs has been nerfed.

I also have a feeling that refinement drops of tempers has been nerfed, and I'm pretty certain that nirn drops has been too (and these are based on larger samples).

But maybe I'm just getting paranoid

When MWs were introduced, ZOS listed some of the things that would affect your chances, and motif knowledge was one mentioned for gear MWs. That said, it's still only an increase in chance and still comes down to RNG (and, that increase in chance may be very small).

That's why some people have said that they aren't really bothering to try and collect all the motifs, since it's a lot of effort and money for such a small increase in CHANCE. Where it does matter, though, is being able to complete the writ once you do get one. The new motifs through Morrowind are now in the loot table, so if you don't know those motifs, you won't be able to complete MWs that call for them - though you can sell them, but from what I've read, they don't move quickly, esp. Buoyant Armiger.

Edited for clarity.

eso_nya · September 2017

I_killed_Vivec wrote: »

So as far as I can see there is no "motif knowledge requirement" .

Its not a requirement, but it is slightly helpfull.
My master crafter, with alot of motifs learned, missing newest ones, has a higher dropchance of writs.
As of today: 124 Writs dropped.
The other alts, with barely any motifknowledge got between 69 and 91 writs each.

However, the impact of motifs not only being low, it does NOT influence the "quality" of the writs. up until june, the mastercrafter was #4 in the ranking of who-brought-home-the-most-vouchers. Since than managed to get up to rank 2.
In numbers:
master crafter: 124 writs@1775 vouchers (~14,31/writ)
no 1 alt: 87 writs@1783vouchers (~20,49/writ)
2nd highest writs alt: 91 writs@1036vouchers (~11,38/writ)
worst: 69writs@840 vouchers (~12,17/writ)

The not-master crafters, have theoretically the same chances to drop. Running writs on those since they launched 6th february.

SGT_Wolfe101st · September 2017

I have looked for MW in the guild stores and haven't had any luck finding them. Are they in a category that wouldn't be intuitive? I also have similar feelings as stated above, that a gatekeeper mechanism exists and knowledge isn't as important as advertised. I have guild mate that just recently started the game (5-6 mths) and is steadily working up their knowledge, their very first lvl 50 daily writ earned a MW 9 trait bow worth 50 vouchers. I can count on one hand the number of MW that I have received that were double digit vouchers. If traits known and motifs learned and skill mattered he shouldn't see a MW compared to my character, and yet it happened. I know the roll of the dice are a thing, and I am happy for all of those that do get them but it really skews the math when on paper his chance at that MW should have been zero. Thanks for the feedback and discussion. I think 9 trait, motif count, skill should be a heavier weight than RNG.

eso_nya · September 2017

SGT_Wolfe101st wrote: »

I have looked for MW in the guild stores and haven't had any luck finding them. Are they in a category that wouldn't be intuitive?

They r under Consumables. If u have AwesomeGuildstore there s a subcategory for them.

I totally agree, i had prefered a system, where:
- the vouchers r weighted differently, like traits needed x10 + [1..20] for exotic-ness of style
- the base dropchance is static and higher ~ 25%
- u only get writs the toon can craft

Overall a better crafter = better results and not bring in the alts caue sh*t doesnt matter.

SGT_Wolfe101st · September 2017

eso_nya wrote: »

SGT_Wolfe101st wrote: »

I have looked for MW in the guild stores and haven't had any luck finding them. Are they in a category that wouldn't be intuitive?

They r under Consumables. If u have AwesomeGuildstore there s a subcategory for them.

I totally agree, i had prefered a system, where:
- the vouchers r weighted differently, like traits needed x10 + [1..20] for exotic-ness of style
- the base dropchance is static and higher ~ 25%
- u only get writs the toon can craft

Overall a better crafter = better results and not bring in the alts caue sh*t doesnt matter.

Consumables, of course they are. I would have never looked there, thank you!

I_killed_Vivec · September 2017

Jayne_Doe wrote: »

I_killed_Vivec wrote: »

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

If you're not keeping up with the full purple motif books learned (Ashlander, Morag Tong, Buoyant Armiger), that will detrimentally affect your chances at equipment master writs.

ZOS will keep adding the most recent purple motif books to the next quarter's patch. In other words, when Clockwork City debuts on Live, the motifs for Hlaalu, Redoran, and Telvanni will likely be added to the motif knowledge requirement.

After that it's simple RNG. Even if up to date on motif knowledge, it is totally possible for a master crafter to hit a "rough patch" for a few weeks ... like rolling several low numbers in a row on that 20-sided dice.

Does it really? Is that something new, or is it something that has supposed to have been in from the start?

I ask because I have two crafters at level 50 for all professions. One knows all the motifs (up to Morrowind), all the recipes. The other only knows what it needed to know to get to level 50 - I couldn't be bothered to do all the research all over again and I'd rather sell purple motifs than get a second character to learn them.

I have been doing top-level writs on both of these characters since writs became a thing, and master writs on both since they came out.

Up to the amount of variation you'd expect to see, there is no difference in the number or quality of master writs they receive (actually the less capable character has done slightly better, but as I say not significantly). And other people have mentioned the same thing here.

So as far as I can see there is no "motif knowledge requirement" .

And as someone else points out, that doesn't affect the provisioning writs...

Though equally, it is too early to tell. However, I have the feeling (possibly irrational I know, but still...) that drops of master writs has been nerfed.

I also have a feeling that refinement drops of tempers has been nerfed, and I'm pretty certain that nirn drops has been too (and these are based on larger samples).

But maybe I'm just getting paranoid

When MWs were introduced, ZOS listed some of the things that would affect your chances, and motif knowledge was one mentioned for gear MWs. That said, it's still only an increase in chance and still comes down to RNG (and, that increase in chance may be very small).

That's why some people have said that they aren't really bothering to try and collect all the motifs, since it's a lot of effort and money for such a small increase in CHANCE. Where it does matter, though, is being able to complete the writ once you do get one. The new motifs through Morrowind are now in the loot table, so if you don't know those motifs, you won't be able to complete MWs that call for them - though you can sell them, but from what I've read, they don't move quickly, esp. Buoyant Armiger.

Edited for clarity.

I know what ZoS said, I'm just saying that my experiences (and the experiences of others) implies that there is no increase (where 'no' can be interpreted as 'meaninglessly small in the light of the overwhelming RNG').

And I have to say I'm happy about that. We get so many new motifs with each DLC/chapter it's a continual race to keep up - though that's what ZoS want, with the "convenience" of buying motifs in the Crown Store.

Cpt_Teemo · September 2017

I have every single motif in game and have had them, also all 9 traits and barely get any MW's on my main crafter haven't seen any for the past 2 months about

Taleof2Cities · September 2017

Cpt_Teemo wrote: »

I have every single motif in game and have had them, also all 9 traits and barely get any MW's on my main crafter haven't seen any for the past 2 months about

Achievements are also a factor that influence drops, @Cpt_Teemo. I'm guessing you're fine in the specific equipment crafting achieves ... but something to double check at least.

Taleof2Cities · September 2017

davey1107 wrote: »

As for the drop rate, my theory has always been that the system has a gatekeeper mechanism that tries to keep a certain amount of an item flowing into the game, but not too many so as to crash the market. What this would mean for master writ rewards is that the RNG would fluctuate based on how many people are doing writs.

I don't think this is a factor in the way master writ drops work.

ZOS certainly has never alluded to a "gatekeeper" formula that is dependent on other players' max writ dailies completed. Moreover, subscribing to this theory could lead to a belief that other drops in the game are subject to the same criteria ... such as temper drops from refining mats.

We do know from ZOS that master writ drops can be positively influenced by motif knowledge, trait research completed, and achievements in the skill.

But, in the end, it's still a random outcome ... with better "odds" based on completion of the items mentioned immediately above.

If the ZOS Team can step in and clarify with a forum post or other communication , that might help end these speculation threads ...