I only ever use enough upgrade materials to get to 100% chance of upgrade. If I'm investing that much in crafting something that I care about not being destroyed, I'm not taking any chances at the game eating it.

Investing 3/3 points in the Temper/Tannin/Resin Expertise skills greatly reduces the materials needed to hit 100% chance and makes it worth it to upgrade to at least Green/Blue.

@Aeroch I think that's some kind of bug in the upgrade interface. I've added enough materials to get to 100%, then told it to upgrade but when the confirmation window popped up, it was still at the percentage for a single upgrade material. Just pay attention to that confirmation when it pops up, if it doesn't say 100% again, exit out and start the upgrade over again and it works.

At least it has for me.

I always do 90%, failing once every 15-20 tries

Well I just got my first failure last night trying to upgrade to blue. I usually only upgrade at 60%-75%and always successful. I usually craft leather items and my skill level is 33. I do also have the 3/3 upgrade expertise

Yeah, i only do 100% now, but it does seem something wonky is going on. Kind of interesting.

*Playing devil's advocate*

With a 80% chance to do anything, it's entirely possible to fail 20 times in succession and succeed the last 80. Not very likely, but possible.

Im not a very high skill level in woodworking, but I finally tried to upgrade a green to a blue at 90%. Was my first attempt to do so and it failed!

i have made about 10 items with 80% and about 10 items with 90% and havent lost any of them.
granted for me its probably just luck and next one will probably fail or next 20 will fail.

but ya if you guys are getting 100% fails something is terribly wrong. i havent experienced that myself, but holy hell that is jacked up.

This may have already been discussed in the thread.

For those failing at 100%, it may be a result of hitting the plus sign too fast, then hitting improve. If you do, the percent at the bottom of the screen will say 100%, but when you go to craft the item, the confirmation prompt will note you're using only one temper with the success rate of just the one temper.

I failed last night at 90% again. I swore I wouldn't do less than 100% but I was making swords for my wife's dual wield character and didn't have enough honing stones.

Pissed me off, once again. I know statistically it is possible for this to be normal, but I'm a little jealous of the lucky SOB who gets the other end of the bell curve (never fails on them).

The issue with the temper failing at 100% is a bug which i have reported, what happens is you click the required amount of tempers to hit %100 and all of a sudden the crafting window insta reloads (only visible tell tale is your weapons will flash) and goes back to 1 temper this can happen even after you have clicked confirm.

How i fixed this is don't have a weapon equipped if you are improving, once your weapon/s are placed back into your inventory it won't happen again. hope this helps people suffering from this bug.

I only ever improve items when I have a 100% chance of success. (And... I stop and read the warning dialog. twice. ensuring that it says 100% chance. twice. I have never failed an improvement since using this method.)

I suspect you're bs'ing. But really, idk.

A sample size of 20, with all 20 failing on a 90% success chance... there's exactly a 0.000000000000000001% chance of that happening on any one go of 20. (like simultaneously winning a few mega-ball lotteries by buying one ticket for each).

Edit: if you're checking the math, please note the % sign.

NoMoreChillies wrote: »

I failed with 100% when upgrading VR12 Cowl of the Warlock.

I'm not calling you a liar, but I don't believe it. And I can tell you for sure that customer support doesn't believe it either.

What I do believe is you clicked the "+" sign enough times that "CHANCE 100%", a message from the client, was displayed. But (and here's the bug) when you mouse-clicked "(R) Improve", the message from the server did NOT say "You have a 100% chance to improve ...."

What happened was your number of Dreugh Wax being used mysteriously dropped from 8 to 1. And your actual chance of success fell all the way from 100% to 12.5%. And the server told you "You have a 12.5% chance to improve ...." And YOU blew right past it by pressing "E" key.

End result: you lost your purple VR12 Cowl of the Warlock and one Dreugh Wax.

You have to slow down and read the message from the server every time. Don't use the keyboard shortcut "E"; manually click the "(E) Accept" button yourself.

When I improve someone else's gear to yellow, with their mats, I actually do this obsessive routine of mouse-clicking "(R) Improve", then circling the "You have a 100% chance to improve ...." text with my mouse cursor, then mouse-clicking "(E) Accept".

I have improved many items for many clients, and I have never once failed an improvement since doing this (admittedly OCD) routine.

hwesterbergb14_ESO wrote: »

So, it seems like their RNG for determining crafting upgrade success might be broken. Between 3 of us in my guild, we have failed *every* single time we've tried to upgrade from green to blue with a 90% chance of success. This is with about 20 trials each. Yes, it's still a somewhat small sample, but with a true 90% chance, our 'luck' should not be that bad, so something seems amiss.

Anyone else noticing this trend?

The thing to remember about the study of odds and statistics is that a 10% chance of failure is the same each and every time. The law of averages (Luck!) will indicate that each time you roll a number, it is less likely that it will be the same number over and over. However the odds that it will be, are the same each and every roll.

To put it another way, lets say you play the lottery with a million to one chance to win. And you win. Yay! Now when you play the lottery again tomorrow, your odds of winning are no better or worse. They are again a million to one. The law of averages however says that you probably won't hit it again, but the odds remain the same.