Crates: Impossible Odds

bradleymsimmons

I think they nerfed the drop rates on crates for the past year. I remember about two years ago opening about 30-40 Halloween crates and getting the Top Tier mount and 2-3 sweet rolls. The last couple of crates I've opened, I think 25 each time, I've gotten honestly garbage. Spent 8,000 gold to get a bunch of stuff I didn't want and when I gem extracted, got about 250 gems. Not much given the trend of stuff costing 400 + gems now. Does anyone else feel this way or am I imagining all of this?

Snamyap

I'm surprised it could even get worse. Can't understand people still wasting their money on them.

Jaimeh

They also nerfed the gem yield, and bumped up costumes, furnishings, etc., in higher categories. Basically, everything in the crates used to be cheaper, and the conversion yielded more gems than what it is nowadays. And it happened around the introduction of seals of endeavour.

Tenthirty2

IDK, its hard to say for me. It's all RNG so I'm reluctant to say yes against something that is largely based on chance.

Perhaps I just wasn't as lucky as I usually am. But I can say that on 3 accounts now, 2 different servers in 25 crates I got nearly the same items. I'm not talking about the standard food\drink gem scrap, I mean pets, a mount, emotes and mementos. I actually completed the Dreugh Queen style on both accounts lol.
My only reasoning is all those items have drop rates set a bit too high?
I do agree that the gem return rate feels low for some things.

Honestly who knows, it's gambling, so I just take what I get and don't overthink it much.

What would be lovely is if we had the option to convert all rewards to gems.
I have a zoos-worth of pets I will never use, a few mounts too and mementos, etc.
Would be great to be able to exchange them for gems.

EDIT: Results above on 3 accounts, nearly same pets, SAME welwa mount... very "odd"

TaSheen

I haven't an earthly - because I don't buy crates at all, not for years. I just hang onto seals until something comes along I want (doesn't happen often for sure).

Grizzbeorn

It's just you; rather, your experience with RNG.

I haven't noticed any significant difference between recent and earlier times.
In fact, I had rather good luck with the 25 Rage crates (the previous season).

CGPsaint

The fact that they keep watering down the Legendary Tier is even more reason for me to never spend actual money on Crown Crates. If I can buy them with gold then fine, but otherwise it's quite simply not worth paying real money to be frustrated with the rubbish RNG.

phairdon

You're correct. I had saved up my monthly crowns and decided to spend them on crates. Purchased 75 crates and failed to get a solitary Apex mount and most items were junk, so to speak. Boy I was pissed off. Learned my lesson. This was last year btw.

valenwood_vegan

I only buy a few crates these days since I can't buy them with gold... but I've noticed that recently I often get a repeat item a ridiculous number of times. Like literally the same pet 4-8 times in 15 crates. Something feels off about it - doesn't exactly make me interested in continuing to try my luck, lol.

menedhyn

bradleymsimmons wrote: »

Does anyone else feel this way or am I imagining all of this?

When I first (last) bought some about 4 years ago, my experience was bad enough to put me off buying any more

ZOS_Icy

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic.

Thank you for your understanding.

Mesite

I got some crates the first time I levelled up after I started my new account. Got maybe one thing that was useful for some people - I got a dress which none of my characters will ever wear. Ember wears it though so not a total waste. The potions I got are still clogging up my inventory.

When crates were free with the daily rewards it didn't even encourage me to log on every day. But that's just me. As a famous trader in Skyrim almost said:

I may call it junk, but you, you call it treasure.

harvey07

yeah. i get same pets over and over....even with this bundle of 25..same pets and tattoos. over and over. i knew it would do this because the last bundle did the same thing. i just had crowns to blow....and i never expected to get what i would really like from this crate set...and i was correct.

tsaescishoeshiner

I haven't noticed a difference. Don't they have to publish the drop rates somewhere?

You can also check the player-tested droprates at crowncrates.com, but the site stopped collecting data a few years ago.

syberfut

I remember the last time the Phantom Ice Wolf mount was out in the crates, I bought 60 crates. I didn't get a single Apex, not a single one. Sooooo, yes RNG, but seriously killing the good feels. I really would be more apt to buy crates if there was a mechanism to increase chance of something good if you don't get anything. It's like when life deals you crap, you make cow pies haha.

Vorkk8383

25+ 15 crates, and the best item that I got was a motif book. The rest were non-combat pets and repeat pets. I feel like I missed a nerf or something. I was not expecting the top-tier rewards, but I usually at least get an apex mount or a costume.

Yes, it is gambling, but my question is, have the odds of those gambles been changed again? I know some items were moved into higher-tiered categories since the original crates...

It would also be nice to know if the crates we buy with the polymorph for 8k have an even lower % for higher tiers. I don't think I got more than some non-combat pets with those... It's already frustrating enough to have that polymorph tied to crates - if the % of higher tiers is even lower, that would be really low from ZOS. I have no proof of anything, hence my asking. Maybe my rng was OK before and I didn't notice how bad it's been for a while? Who knows. I just know that for 8k and 5k, the house won, considering my ''rewards''.

tsaescishoeshiner

patrick.loiselleb16_ESO wrote: »

25+ 15 crates, and the best item that I got was a motif book. The rest were non-combat pets and repeat pets. I feel like I missed a nerf or something. I was not expecting the top-tier rewards, but I usually at least get an apex mount or a costume.

Yes, it is gambling, but my question is, have the odds of those gambles been changed again? I know some items were moved into higher-tiered categories since the original crates...

It would also be nice to know if the crates we buy with the polymorph for 8k have an even lower % for higher tiers. I don't think I got more than some non-combat pets with those... It's already frustrating enough to have that polymorph tied to crates - if the % of higher tiers is even lower, that would be really low from ZOS. I have no proof of anything, hence my asking. Maybe my rng was OK before and I didn't notice how bad it's been for a while? Who knows. I just know that for 8k and 5k, the house won, considering my ''rewards''.

You can read the droprates here: https://help.bethesda.net/#en/answer/49828

It's possible your legendaries were the motif books and other things you didn't like. Like you said, it's gambling. Sounds like a normal haul to me.

Based on the droprates, buying crates with hopes of getting specific items (Epic or rarer) is very very irrational. Wishful thinking. But at least you should have a nice sum of gems from that.

It doesn't help the already-slim odds that they've been bumping costumes and furnishings up to apex rarity.

bradleymsimmons

I feel like I missed a nerf or something. I was not expecting the top-tier rewards, but I usually at least get an apex mount or a costume.

This is exactly how I felt!

I mean, come on ZOS! What sweat is it to you to give us some GOOD stuff!? Especially, after spending $55 on a 25 pack? Does not inspire me to keep spending money on your game. [snip]

[edited for bashing]

Vorkk8383

tsaescishoeshiner wrote: »

patrick.loiselleb16_ESO wrote: »

25+ 15 crates, and the best item that I got was a motif book. The rest were non-combat pets and repeat pets. I feel like I missed a nerf or something. I was not expecting the top-tier rewards, but I usually at least get an apex mount or a costume.

Yes, it is gambling, but my question is, have the odds of those gambles been changed again? I know some items were moved into higher-tiered categories since the original crates...

It would also be nice to know if the crates we buy with the polymorph for 8k have an even lower % for higher tiers. I don't think I got more than some non-combat pets with those... It's already frustrating enough to have that polymorph tied to crates - if the % of higher tiers is even lower, that would be really low from ZOS. I have no proof of anything, hence my asking. Maybe my rng was OK before and I didn't notice how bad it's been for a while? Who knows. I just know that for 8k and 5k, the house won, considering my ''rewards''.

You can read the droprates here: https://help.bethesda.net/#en/answer/49828

It's possible your legendaries were the motif books and other things you didn't like. Like you said, it's gambling. Sounds like a normal haul to me.

Based on the droprates, buying crates with hopes of getting specific items (Epic or rarer) is very very irrational. Wishful thinking. But at least you should have a nice sum of gems from that.

It doesn't help the already-slim odds that they've been bumping costumes and furnishings up to apex rarity.

I think that changing the costumes and the furnishings is what makes things feel so empty for me.

And no, I didn't get a good amount of gems, considering that I have 2600 gems and bought well over a thousand dollars worth of crates this year. They pay very little and charge a lot for items. ''Here is the 4th time you get the same item'', have another 5 gems. You are up to 15 gems and 1x this item now! Congrats!''. It is frustrating. The number of repeats needs to be lowered when you're still missing items in that tier (not counting the first tier); they should put furniture and costumes back where they were. These items cost so many more gems now, and we're not getting more of them... I accept that the highest-tiered rewards have a lower %. It is gambling. The changes made to make it even more difficult to obtain some items were greedy.

bradleymsimmons

What I don't get is why they don't see this formula...

Buys expensive crates, gets nearly nothing of value = customer STOPS buying crates.

Buys expensive crates, gets good rewards = happy customer who buys MORE crates to get more good stuff. AND continues buying new release crates.

Groterdan

This time the 25 bundle out of 15 opened decent rewards . The wraight polymorph 2 mounts 400 gems each

Nihilr

bradleymsimmons wrote: »

What I don't get is why they don't see this formula...

Buys expensive crates, gets nearly nothing of value = customer STOPS buying crates.

Buys expensive crates, gets good rewards = happy customer who buys MORE crates to get more good stuff. AND continues buying new release crates.

Because there are enough people who blow their crowns on crates when they don't want anything else in-store. Or get into competitive mode and pretend they can "win" if they keep buying crates. lol "Just one more crate, bro. I swear. My last one."

AzuraFan

I blew some crowns on these crates, only because I was accumulating crowns from my ESO+ subscription. I'll likely be dead before the house I want comes up for sale again, so I decided to try for the nifty recall - either through getting it directly or generating enough gems so I could buy it (I already had over 300 gems so I didn't have far to go).

Didn't get the recall directly so I did buy it. I did get a lot of cool stuff. No radiant mount, but I got the motif book, the constellation thingie (which is pretty much lost on me since I don't do housing - I want the house because of its location only), a mount that isn't radiant, a bunch of non-combat pets, style pages, body markings, and the usual trash. (I've never received a radiant mount from any crates I've bought over the past few years.)

I think I did okay. BUT there were a ton of duplicates. Once, out of four cards from a crate, two of them were the same thing. I don't recall it happening with that high of a frequency before. I think there should be a limit on how many duplicate items you can receive because the number of gems you get are pathetic, so I consider duplicates a RIP OFF.

Anyway, I wouldn't blow real money on these crates - the RNG is just too punishing for that.