New Moon Priest Motif

tmbrinks

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Same boat here.

I have two accounts who've collected a page each and every day so far. Have not received either Daggers or Shoulders yet. But I've gotten 4 or 5 of several other pages (Belts and Boots)

That's randomness for you

With all of the complaints about duplicates I wonder if there is a problem with the RNG seed number. Initializing the call to random with the same seed number will generate the same sequence of pseudo random numbers.

All sample sizes are WAAAAAAY to small to draw any conclusions from that at this time.

I've gotten 1 NMP motif everyday since they released, and I have 8/14. So out of 20 days ive gotten 8 new and 12 dupes

again... sample sizes are WAAAAAAAY too small to draw any conclusions at this point.

You do realize that as you get more pages the odds of getting "dupes" goes up... and that with being at 8/14, you are MORE likely to get a duplicate than to get a unique page...

Minimum sample sizes for something that has 14 outcomes is much, much, much larger than 20.

Getting 8/14 seems normal to me.

You don't have to believe me that I did this on the first time: But I went to a site: https://andrew.hedges.name/e/random/



I would have gotten 9/14 motifs in this case... and a whopping 6! of whatever corresponds to page 4!

I did it with 40 chances (which is where I'm at, because of 2 accounts), and it was still missing 1 (didn't get a page 10, and only 1 of page 8)

Play around in Excel/Google Sheets/Open Office, whatever you use. Use the RANDBETWEEN(1,14) function and do it 20 times. You'll see that WAY more times than not, you won't have all 14, you usually won't be even close, and you'll be closer to 8-10 done.

I'm not trying to white knight here, I teach high school mathematics, and innumeracy is a huge issue today, particularly when it comes to statistics and the relevancy of data. Your results are decidedly normal.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Same boat here.

I have two accounts who've collected a page each and every day so far. Have not received either Daggers or Shoulders yet. But I've gotten 4 or 5 of several other pages (Belts and Boots)

That's randomness for you

With all of the complaints about duplicates I wonder if there is a problem with the RNG seed number. Initializing the call to random with the same seed number will generate the same sequence of pseudo random numbers.

All sample sizes are WAAAAAAY to small to draw any conclusions from that at this time.

I've gotten 1 NMP motif everyday since they released, and I have 8/14. So out of 20 days ive gotten 8 new and 12 dupes

again... sample sizes are WAAAAAAAY too small to draw any conclusions at this point.

You do realize that as you get more pages the odds of getting "dupes" goes up... and that with being at 8/14, you are MORE likely to get a duplicate than to get a unique page...

Minimum sample sizes for something that has 14 outcomes is much, much, much larger than 20.

Getting 8/14 seems normal to me.

You don't have to believe me that I did this on the first time: But I went to a site: https://andrew.hedges.name/e/random/



I would have gotten 9/14 motifs in this case... and a whopping 6! of whatever corresponds to page 4!

I did it with 40 chances (which is where I'm at, because of 2 accounts), and it was still missing 1 (didn't get a page 10, and only 1 of page 8)

Play around in Excel/Google Sheets/Open Office, whatever you use. Use the RANDBETWEEN(1,14) function and do it 20 times. You'll see that WAY more times than not, you won't have all 14, you usually won't be even close, and you'll be closer to 8-10 done.

I'm not trying to white knight here, I teach high school mathematics, and innumeracy is a huge issue today, particularly when it comes to statistics and the relevancy of data. Your results are decidedly normal.

The sample size is not too small to be suspect. This is a pseudo random number. When I was still designing operating system and middleware functions to receive the same result 5 times in a row for the staves or in the case of the shoulders now up to 4 times in a row would be suspect. In particular I would be looking at the code that was responsible for initializing the seed number as pseudo random functions will produce the same results every time with the same seed number.

tmbrinks

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Same boat here.

I have two accounts who've collected a page each and every day so far. Have not received either Daggers or Shoulders yet. But I've gotten 4 or 5 of several other pages (Belts and Boots)

That's randomness for you

With all of the complaints about duplicates I wonder if there is a problem with the RNG seed number. Initializing the call to random with the same seed number will generate the same sequence of pseudo random numbers.

All sample sizes are WAAAAAAY to small to draw any conclusions from that at this time.

I've gotten 1 NMP motif everyday since they released, and I have 8/14. So out of 20 days ive gotten 8 new and 12 dupes

again... sample sizes are WAAAAAAAY too small to draw any conclusions at this point.

You do realize that as you get more pages the odds of getting "dupes" goes up... and that with being at 8/14, you are MORE likely to get a duplicate than to get a unique page...

Minimum sample sizes for something that has 14 outcomes is much, much, much larger than 20.

Getting 8/14 seems normal to me.

You don't have to believe me that I did this on the first time: But I went to a site: https://andrew.hedges.name/e/random/



I would have gotten 9/14 motifs in this case... and a whopping 6! of whatever corresponds to page 4!

I did it with 40 chances (which is where I'm at, because of 2 accounts), and it was still missing 1 (didn't get a page 10, and only 1 of page 8)

Play around in Excel/Google Sheets/Open Office, whatever you use. Use the RANDBETWEEN(1,14) function and do it 20 times. You'll see that WAY more times than not, you won't have all 14, you usually won't be even close, and you'll be closer to 8-10 done.

I'm not trying to white knight here, I teach high school mathematics, and innumeracy is a huge issue today, particularly when it comes to statistics and the relevancy of data. Your results are decidedly normal.

The sample size is not too small to be suspect. This is a pseudo random number. When I was still designing operating system and middleware functions to receive the same result 5 times in a row for the staves or in the case of the shoulders now up to 4 times in a row would be suspect. In particular I would be looking at the code that was responsible for initializing the seed number as pseudo random functions will produce the same results every time with the same seed number.

Oh, I completely agree that if we got the same motif 5 days in a row that would be suspect. since the odds of that are very, very, very small. (1/14)^4 = 0.002% or 1 in 384.

But that's not the situation we have here.

20 random draws, with replacement, of 14 items and they've only pulled out 8 unique items. That's well within statistical norms.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Same boat here.

I have two accounts who've collected a page each and every day so far. Have not received either Daggers or Shoulders yet. But I've gotten 4 or 5 of several other pages (Belts and Boots)

That's randomness for you

With all of the complaints about duplicates I wonder if there is a problem with the RNG seed number. Initializing the call to random with the same seed number will generate the same sequence of pseudo random numbers.

All sample sizes are WAAAAAAY to small to draw any conclusions from that at this time.

I've gotten 1 NMP motif everyday since they released, and I have 8/14. So out of 20 days ive gotten 8 new and 12 dupes

again... sample sizes are WAAAAAAAY too small to draw any conclusions at this point.

You do realize that as you get more pages the odds of getting "dupes" goes up... and that with being at 8/14, you are MORE likely to get a duplicate than to get a unique page...

Minimum sample sizes for something that has 14 outcomes is much, much, much larger than 20.

Getting 8/14 seems normal to me.

You don't have to believe me that I did this on the first time: But I went to a site: https://andrew.hedges.name/e/random/



I would have gotten 9/14 motifs in this case... and a whopping 6! of whatever corresponds to page 4!

I did it with 40 chances (which is where I'm at, because of 2 accounts), and it was still missing 1 (didn't get a page 10, and only 1 of page 8)

Play around in Excel/Google Sheets/Open Office, whatever you use. Use the RANDBETWEEN(1,14) function and do it 20 times. You'll see that WAY more times than not, you won't have all 14, you usually won't be even close, and you'll be closer to 8-10 done.

I'm not trying to white knight here, I teach high school mathematics, and innumeracy is a huge issue today, particularly when it comes to statistics and the relevancy of data. Your results are decidedly normal.

The sample size is not too small to be suspect. This is a pseudo random number. When I was still designing operating system and middleware functions to receive the same result 5 times in a row for the staves or in the case of the shoulders now up to 4 times in a row would be suspect. In particular I would be looking at the code that was responsible for initializing the seed number as pseudo random functions will produce the same results every time with the same seed number.

Oh, I completely agree that if we got the same motif 5 days in a row that would be suspect. since the odds of that are very, very, very small. (1/14)^4 = 0.002% or 1 in 384.

But that's not the situation we have here.

20 random draws, with replacement, of 14 items and they've only pulled out 8 unique items. That's well within statistical norms.

It is exactly what I've had happen. One character, 5 staves five days in a row, a glove, 4 shoulders four days in a row and tonight legs. I generally hit the box about the same time each night but tonight was quite a bit later than usual and I think it was the same for the gloves.

It is common practice to use the system clock or a portion of it to initialize the seed. If it is coded only using a portion depending upon which bytes are used it could result in duplicates. Another possibility is an uninitialized variable. Under the same conditions code and data areas will tend to be loaded/allocated into the same addresses so it is not uncommon for an uninitialized variable to have the same value. The box isn't the only time I've seen what I would consider strange behavior of pseudo random numbers it has just been more pronounced. To be honest even if it were a bug I wouldn't expect to ever see a fix given ZOS's history on these types of things.

Taleof2Cities

[Snip]

Because there’s no specialized data or code at work, here, for your New Moon Priest motif drops.

Many players, including myself, have had the same page drop two days in a row or more.

[Edited for bait]

tmbrinks

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

Same boat here.

I have two accounts who've collected a page each and every day so far. Have not received either Daggers or Shoulders yet. But I've gotten 4 or 5 of several other pages (Belts and Boots)

That's randomness for you

With all of the complaints about duplicates I wonder if there is a problem with the RNG seed number. Initializing the call to random with the same seed number will generate the same sequence of pseudo random numbers.

All sample sizes are WAAAAAAY to small to draw any conclusions from that at this time.

I've gotten 1 NMP motif everyday since they released, and I have 8/14. So out of 20 days ive gotten 8 new and 12 dupes

again... sample sizes are WAAAAAAAY too small to draw any conclusions at this point.

You do realize that as you get more pages the odds of getting "dupes" goes up... and that with being at 8/14, you are MORE likely to get a duplicate than to get a unique page...

Minimum sample sizes for something that has 14 outcomes is much, much, much larger than 20.

Getting 8/14 seems normal to me.

You don't have to believe me that I did this on the first time: But I went to a site: https://andrew.hedges.name/e/random/



I would have gotten 9/14 motifs in this case... and a whopping 6! of whatever corresponds to page 4!

I did it with 40 chances (which is where I'm at, because of 2 accounts), and it was still missing 1 (didn't get a page 10, and only 1 of page 8)

Play around in Excel/Google Sheets/Open Office, whatever you use. Use the RANDBETWEEN(1,14) function and do it 20 times. You'll see that WAY more times than not, you won't have all 14, you usually won't be even close, and you'll be closer to 8-10 done.

I'm not trying to white knight here, I teach high school mathematics, and innumeracy is a huge issue today, particularly when it comes to statistics and the relevancy of data. Your results are decidedly normal.

The sample size is not too small to be suspect. This is a pseudo random number. When I was still designing operating system and middleware functions to receive the same result 5 times in a row for the staves or in the case of the shoulders now up to 4 times in a row would be suspect. In particular I would be looking at the code that was responsible for initializing the seed number as pseudo random functions will produce the same results every time with the same seed number.

Oh, I completely agree that if we got the same motif 5 days in a row that would be suspect. since the odds of that are very, very, very small. (1/14)^4 = 0.002% or 1 in 384.

But that's not the situation we have here.

20 random draws, with replacement, of 14 items and they've only pulled out 8 unique items. That's well within statistical norms.

It is exactly what I've had happen. One character, 5 staves five days in a row, a glove, 4 shoulders four days in a row and tonight legs. I generally hit the box about the same time each night but tonight was quite a bit later than usual and I think it was the same for the gloves.

It is common practice to use the system clock or a portion of it to initialize the seed. If it is coded only using a portion depending upon which bytes are used it could result in duplicates. Another possibility is an uninitialized variable. Under the same conditions code and data areas will tend to be loaded/allocated into the same addresses so it is not uncommon for an uninitialized variable to have the same value. The box isn't the only time I've seen what I would consider strange behavior of pseudo random numbers it has just been more pronounced. To be honest even if it were a bug I wouldn't expect to ever see a fix given ZOS's history on these types of things.

I agree that your situation should be looked into, because it is rare.

That said, doing some more thinking. It's 1 in 384 rare. I'm sure there are more then 384 people picking up the motifs daily across the game (There were literally 50 people in the Sanctum when I logged in today). So it's not absurd that it's happened to somebody. And if somebody has "poor" RNG like that, they are also SIGNIFICANTLY more likely to say something than those who did not have anything out of the ordinary happen.

This provides a kind of "false bias" where people tend to believe that there is a bug, or a situation, where they are basing that conclusion on incomplete, biased data.

katanagirl1

Everyone says “RNG” and that implies the same chance of getting each page. All my farming makes me think that it is a weighted probability distribution instead.

Does anyone ever end up with too many chests and helmets?

I always get a ton of axes or maces or something like that which are harder to sell.

Alinhbo_Tyaka

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

[Snip]

Because there’s no specialized data or code at work, here, for your New Moon Priest motif drops.

Many players, including myself, have had the same page drop two days in a row or more.

[Edited for bait]

[Snip]

[Edited for baiting/bashing]

tmbrinks wrote: »

- snip -

This provides a kind of "false bias" where people tend to believe that there is a bug, or a situation, where they are basing that conclusion on incomplete, biased data.

I haven't said it is 100% broken but is suspect and I think it deserves a look. I have well over 30 years of software engineering experience. I have come across coding errors many times that will appear to work but will exhibit atypical behavior only under certain circumstances. Maybe there is some type of weighting as @katanagirl1 surmises. However its done ZOS has a history of not getting item drops quite right on their first attempt so in this instance I don't believe they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

Another serial duplicate last night by the way.

tmbrinks

Alinhbo_Tyaka wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

- snip -

This provides a kind of "false bias" where people tend to believe that there is a bug, or a situation, where they are basing that conclusion on incomplete, biased data.

I haven't said it is 100% broken but is suspect and I think it deserves a look. I have well over 30 years of software engineering experience. I have come across coding errors many times that will appear to work but will exhibit atypical behavior only under certain circumstances. Maybe there is some type of weighting as @katanagirl1 surmises. However its done ZOS has a history of not getting item drops quite right on their first attempt so in this instance I don't believe they deserve the benefit of the doubt.

Another serial duplicate last night by the way.

Yeah, I said as much in the part you snipped out

There is also a lot of research that shows that what I was saying is true. And it drives online retail, business models and how they perceive negative feedback. I don't have it in front of me, but I think you're somewhere around 20x as likely to leave negative feedback over positive. The human brain also remembers negative experiences much more than positive. It's a bias, plain and simple.

I don't doubt your claims. Again, that was my first line that you snipped out.

Maybe they do have a weighting that makes things less likely to drop on certain characters/accounts than others, but randomized across everybody. This would encourage trade in an MMO.

I'm fairly certain that we see this in the drops of the Psijic Ambrosia Fragments, I'm always "lower" on Fragment VII than I am on others. I've gotten probably 150 of each of the others, and only 120 of Fragment VII. That's not an enormous difference, but enough that I have a surplus of the others, and if I want to complete the recipe, I'd trade for them.

FWIW. I got one of the two pages I was missing yesterday, so only have 1 that I haven't gotten in 44 possible drops (which is still WELL within statistical probability). And neither of the ones I'm missing are the same ones that Katana mentioned, gotten expected numbers of chests/helmet motifs.

This is the same thing as the "coupon collectors problem" where you ask. How many times should I be expected to draw to get all of the unique items with replacement. https://demonstrations.wolfram.com/CouponCollectorProblem/

The answer for 14 items, the pages in a motif, is 45.5 "trials".

I'm at 44 "trials" and missing 1 page.

Most others are at 22 "trials". Less than halfway there.

Again, might it deserve looking into, yes. Can we even be close to saying there's a major issue.... no.

I appreciate that you're coming at it from a computer programming standpoint. I have very limited knowledge of that. What I do know is the mathematics and statistical probability behind it. And the math says the results we've seen are not atypical.

naturebased

Is it still a 20h cooldown on drops or did they change that? I don't remember what time I grabbed the chest yesterday but I've gotten a motif page every day since it came out, except for today.

tmbrinks

naturebased wrote: »

Is it still a 20h cooldown on drops or did they change that? I don't remember what time I grabbed the chest yesterday but I've gotten a motif page every day since it came out, except for today.

They're making a change with Greymoor launch. It's not live yet.

naturebased

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

Is it still a 20h cooldown on drops or did they change that? I don't remember what time I grabbed the chest yesterday but I've gotten a motif page every day since it came out, except for today.

They're making a change with Greymoor launch. It's not live yet.

so i just happened to open chest before 20h was up? ive heard some say the page is not guaranteed even if its been 20h but not sure if true

tmbrinks

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

Is it still a 20h cooldown on drops or did they change that? I don't remember what time I grabbed the chest yesterday but I've gotten a motif page every day since it came out, except for today.

They're making a change with Greymoor launch. It's not live yet.

so i just happened to open chest before 20h was up? ive heard some say the page is not guaranteed even if its been 20h but not sure if true

That would be my guess.

I've waited at least 20 hours, picked up the box on two separate accounts, and have gotten a motif every day.

With Greymoor, they are taking away the timer. Making it not guaranteed, but it has "a much higher probability" than other motif drop sources.

Taleof2Cities

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

Is it still a 20h cooldown on drops or did they change that? I don't remember what time I grabbed the chest yesterday but I've gotten a motif page every day since it came out, except for today.

They're making a change with Greymoor launch. It's not live yet.

so i just happened to open chest before 20h was up? ive heard some say the page is not guaranteed even if its been 20h but not sure if true

That would be my guess.

I've waited at least 20 hours, picked up the box on two separate accounts, and have gotten a motif every day.

With Greymoor, they are taking away the timer. Making it not guaranteed, but it has "a much higher probability" than other motif drop sources.

I've never had an issue with the 20h timer either, @tmbrinks ... I've always gotten a motif.

naturebased

So now that Greymoor has dropped, does it go off of normal reset? and now theres a high chance instead of a sure thing?

Aisleyne

naturebased wrote: »

So now that Greymoor has dropped, does it go off of normal reset? and now theres a high chance instead of a sure thing?

"Fixed an issue that, in some cases, could prevent you from having a chance to earn New Moon Priest Motif chapters when opening the Dragonguard supply chest."

The patch notes aren't really explicit, but yeah, most people are assuming it refers to the 20hr timer. In which case, it should work off of the regular daily reset time. As for how high the chances are, it's too soon to say. For what it's worth, I didn't get anything today.

tmbrinks

I did not get one today on my alt account.

Got one every. single. day. up until now when it had the 20hr timer. Now we're back to RNG.

Gundug

I’ve gotten three motifs out of ten chests in the last two days. One drop yesterday, two today. That’s way too small a sample size to mean much, but I’ll keep an eye out for it. Whatever the new drop rate is, it will take exponentially longer to learn the whole book through earned drops alone, compared to before, where I have one character complete, four others 90-95% done, and a stack in the bank at around 75% complete to make another whole book.

naturebased

Gundug wrote: »

I’ve gotten three motifs out of ten chests in the last two days. One drop yesterday, two today. That’s way too small a sample size to mean much, but I’ll keep an eye out for it. Whatever the new drop rate is, it will take exponentially longer to learn the whole book through earned drops alone, compared to before, where I have one character complete, four others 90-95% done, and a stack in the bank at around 75% complete to make another whole book.

Id gotten one everyday up until the change and now I am 0 for 2. gunna be hell to find those last 4 i need.... Will prices climb back up because of this? should i buy my missing ones right now?

tmbrinks

naturebased wrote: »

Gundug wrote: »

I’ve gotten three motifs out of ten chests in the last two days. One drop yesterday, two today. That’s way too small a sample size to mean much, but I’ll keep an eye out for it. Whatever the new drop rate is, it will take exponentially longer to learn the whole book through earned drops alone, compared to before, where I have one character complete, four others 90-95% done, and a stack in the bank at around 75% complete to make another whole book.

Id gotten one everyday up until the change and now I am 0 for 2. gunna be hell to find those last 4 i need.... Will prices climb back up because of this? should i buy my missing ones right now?

personally, I would. I had gotten 2 per day (2 accounts) the entire time. I'm 0 for 4 since the change.

I can't help but think that people's whinging about the "timer in a timer" made ZoS change, and that we have this clearly much worse situation now as a result.

kringled_1

So, is this motif well on it's way to being the next Hollowjack/Skinchanger? I'm going to keep using the chest; it's a very low effort way to get some alchemy mats particularly dragon ones. But the motifs aren't selling for me with any speed, despite repeated price drops. I'm tempted to just start consuming them on my secondary characters.

tmbrinks

kringled_1 wrote: »

So, is this motif well on it's way to being the next Hollowjack/Skinchanger? I'm going to keep using the chest; it's a very low effort way to get some alchemy mats particularly dragon ones. But the motifs aren't selling for me with any speed, despite repeated price drops. I'm tempted to just start consuming them on my secondary characters.

are you on Console? because once Greymoor drops, the drop rate will go down precipitously. I got 2 each and everyday from the launch to Greymoor, because I abided by the 20 hour rule.

In the 9 days since (18 chances) I've gotten 4 of them. Thanks for the massive RNG nerf ZoS.

Taleof2Cities

tmbrinks wrote: »

kringled_1 wrote: »

So, is this motif well on it's way to being the next Hollowjack/Skinchanger? I'm going to keep using the chest; it's a very low effort way to get some alchemy mats particularly dragon ones. But the motifs aren't selling for me with any speed, despite repeated price drops. I'm tempted to just start consuming them on my secondary characters.

are you on Console? because once Greymoor drops, the drop rate will go down precipitously. I got 2 each and everyday from the launch to Greymoor, because I abided by the 20 hour rule.

In the 9 days since (18 chances) I've gotten 4 of them. Thanks for the massive RNG nerf ZoS.

Since the change in drop rate, I have still gotten a motif page every day (except a couple days that I was out).

I'm sure the new drop rate will catch up to me eventually.

kringled_1

I'm on PC/NA; the drop rate for me has gone from 100% to maybe 50-60%, not nearly as much as you've experienced tmbrinks. Since Greymoor dropped I've gotten maybe 5 or so pages. But I've only sold one, and that's with repeated dropping of prices. Between drops from before and current, I'm sitting on maybe 14 pages covering 7-8 of the different pieces.

Aisleyne

My experience has been more like that of tmbrinks. I've only gotten 2 pages since the Greymoor change (one account).

Veinblood1965

tmbrinks wrote: »

naturebased wrote: »

Taleof2Cities wrote: »

Lotus781 wrote: »

Who has time todo 30 dailys?

The dailies have been going on since ... well ... the end of last October when Dragonhold dropped.

If you haven't had time to do 30 dailies between October and April that's exclusively on you ...

My main toon has 30 dailies done, i wonder how long it would take/if itd be worth it to do on another toon to collect motifs there. Also, this way to collecting motifs is very interesting, hasnt been done before iirc, I wonder why they did it this way. Basically once you have a full set its going to be free gold every day... maybe in a year theyll be worthless

Don't bother with another character. The chest is limited to once per account per day.

Yeah I found that out the hard way. Was so thrilled till I went to look for the box on my second toon and it would not open.