Crown Crate Drop Success Rate Thread (Live Server)

Bryanonymous

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

This is the only thread people are allowed to post about the crates in, lol. Scam, scam, scam, scam, scamy, scam, white knight, shill, scam, manufactured consent, scam, rip off, did I already say scam?

Ok. Got that out. Now, how about we discuss how these could not even qualify as gambling because the gain is so worthless for the money, it's just a scam.

I just hope we will be getting some real content along side our scam. And if you don't like it, don't buy it? Yea, not going to, but I get some crowns for purchasing the craft bag. And if I don't like it, I will say it. Scam.

Gem conversion - scam
The word 'apex' - scam
Crown price - scam
Shallow content - scam
White knight shills - scam
Luring naive youth - scam
Capitalizing on mental illness - scam
Pissing all over a good game - scam

If I missed anything, feel free to fill in the blanks. Enjoy your scam.

This would be more appropriate in the Do Not Buy Crown Crates thread. This thread is about tracking the drop rate.

Didn't they lock that one and direct everyone here? Yea, they did. Every other thread is being directed here.

I just opened that thread and it is not locked.

Link?

HeroOfNone

Preyfar wrote: »

HeroOfNone wrote: »

The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

ZOS needs to up the drop rate, but also create an incentive to keep opening them. There is no freakin' reason it took me 87 crates to get a single Atro mount. The system needs to reward players, not punish them. RNG crates are one thing, but it seems like it needs an intelligent drop rate system. If you don't get an Apex reward it should increase the drop rate change by 0.5% or so for each crate until you get one. While it's random, there should be an incentive to keep trying to buy them (for those who are inclined to purchase them).

Most of the items in the crates are, well, awful. But if people are going to pay money they shouldn't feel like they're being punished for doing so.

I'd agree that upping rewards when you don't get a prime reward would be a good system, but it would be hard to show the player "yeaglh, you have a 50% high chance right now, but RNG still gave you a common and bunch of fine items).

Coincidentally did you track the order of you'd crates? At what box (assuming you broke everything down) could you have just bought the mount?

rotaugen454

Bryanonymous wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

This is the only thread people are allowed to post about the crates in, lol. Scam, scam, scam, scam, scamy, scam, white knight, shill, scam, manufactured consent, scam, rip off, did I already say scam?

Ok. Got that out. Now, how about we discuss how these could not even qualify as gambling because the gain is so worthless for the money, it's just a scam.

I just hope we will be getting some real content along side our scam. And if you don't like it, don't buy it? Yea, not going to, but I get some crowns for purchasing the craft bag. And if I don't like it, I will say it. Scam.

Gem conversion - scam
The word 'apex' - scam
Crown price - scam
Shallow content - scam
White knight shills - scam
Luring naive youth - scam
Capitalizing on mental illness - scam
Pissing all over a good game - scam

If I missed anything, feel free to fill in the blanks. Enjoy your scam.

This would be more appropriate in the Do Not Buy Crown Crates thread. This thread is about tracking the drop rate.

Didn't they lock that one and direct everyone here? Yea, they did. Every other thread is being directed here.

I just opened that thread and it is not locked.

Link?

Really? Can't see it on the front page?

Bryanonymous

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Bryanonymous wrote: »

This is the only thread people are allowed to post about the crates in, lol. Scam, scam, scam, scam, scamy, scam, white knight, shill, scam, manufactured consent, scam, rip off, did I already say scam?

Ok. Got that out. Now, how about we discuss how these could not even qualify as gambling because the gain is so worthless for the money, it's just a scam.

I just hope we will be getting some real content along side our scam. And if you don't like it, don't buy it? Yea, not going to, but I get some crowns for purchasing the craft bag. And if I don't like it, I will say it. Scam.

Gem conversion - scam
The word 'apex' - scam
Crown price - scam
Shallow content - scam
White knight shills - scam
Luring naive youth - scam
Capitalizing on mental illness - scam
Pissing all over a good game - scam

If I missed anything, feel free to fill in the blanks. Enjoy your scam.

This would be more appropriate in the Do Not Buy Crown Crates thread. This thread is about tracking the drop rate.

Didn't they lock that one and direct everyone here? Yea, they did. Every other thread is being directed here.

I just opened that thread and it is not locked.

Link?

Really? Can't see it on the front page?

Oh I see it. That one will probably get locked too. Anyways, the following thread was directed here, which is why I thought the scam talk was suppose to go in this thread:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/comment/3567826/#Comment_3567826

But yea, the drop rate is a scam, so my opinion is relevant.

But for the record, here's the thread you are talking about:
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/306223/do-not-buy-crown-crates/p1
We'll see if it stays open.

Preyfar

HeroOfNone wrote: »

I'd agree that upping rewards when you don't get a prime reward would be a good system, but it would be hard to show the player "yeaglh, you have a 50% high chance right now, but RNG still gave you a common and bunch of fine items).

Coincidentally did you track the order of you'd crates? At what box (assuming you broke everything down) could you have just bought the mount?

I'd have been able to buy a mount after about 45 boxes, but I didn't want to. Mainly, I was hoping to still be able to get an Apex mount from a crate. I could have used the crown gems, but the conversion rate is so low that if you're hoping for multiple mounts you're kind of screwing yourself over.

A duplicate Apex mount comes out at, what, 80 gems? I wanted both the wolf and the senche, so if I somehow got a duplicate... it'd burn even worse. Conversion rates suck.

Elsonso

HeroOfNone wrote: »

The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

My feeling going into this that the Apex mounts would be in the pricey neighborhood of 8000 Crowns. That, if they did not have Crown Crates, they would be asking that much, or more, as a weekend limited time offer. Ultimately, Crown Crates are a way to raise prices and get more Crowns for the mounts. This is why I offered ZOS the option to just take 8000 Crowns from me and give me the Senche. All they have to do is send me a PM and the Crowns are all theirs. (Edit: this is a limited time offer)

I feel that the Apex drop rates are currently right on, or slightly too high, and that the Gem conversion may also be a little too high, or the Gem price too low. It is too soon to know if they went too far with post-PTS tweaks and the addition of the consumable exchange.

It will be interesting to see if drop rates, exchange rates, or Gem costs change next season.

rotaugen454

Crate16
Spell Elixir
Refreshing Drink
Poison
Soul Shriven Ragged Clothes

Crate 17
Battlemage Tribune
Soul Gem
Survivor Elixir
Mimic Stone

Crate 18
Poison
Spell Elixir
Soul Shriven Leather
Tri-restoration

Crate 19
Mimic Stone
Helstrom Lizard
Chub Loon
Warrior Elixir
Soul Gem

Crate 20
Jawbone Blades
Riding Capacity
Tri-restoration
Repair Kit

Crate 21
Warrior Elixir
Invisibility Potion
Battlemage Tribune
Mimic Stone

Crate 22
Warrior Elixir
Battlemage Tribune
Antler Skullcap
Tri-restoration
Poison

Crate 23
Soul Shriven Ragged Clothes
Invisibility Potion
Shadow Striping
Invisibility Potion

Crate 24
Soul Gem
Refreshing Drink
Clever Wizard hat
Invisibility Potion

Crate 25
Mimic Stone
Evening Dress
Survivor Elixir
Warrior Elixir

Crate 26
Storm Atronach Aura
Spell Elixir
Soul Gem
Riding Stamina

Crate 27
XP scroll
Invisibility Potion
Mimic Stone
Poison

Crate 28
Warrior Elixir
Evening Dress
Spell Elixir
Fortifying Meal

Crate 29
Mimic Stone
Battlemage Scout
Palomino Horse
Shadow Striping
Warrior Elixir

Crate 30
Soul Gem
Survivor Elixir
Survivor Elixir
Battlemage Tribune

KramUzibra

Slylok wrote: »

Mercutio wrote: »

Pathfinder wrote: »

Looks like 50 crates is going to net you about 400 gems. So essentially, those 400 gem mounts are costing you 20,000 crowns. I dont have hard numbers, but I think I am pretty close.

I know it's too early to tell, but does this seem to be the current consensus? So for the price of 50 crates you can get the one item you want?

Assuming you bought 20K Crowns for $160 you should be able to get what you want?

The chances of not getting at least 1 Apex mount over 50 crates is very low. I would say the majority of people that would open that many would get already at least 1.

However the conversion rate does stink. I think 15 should give you enough gems for an apex item. Adding gems to crates would be a good idea.

76 crates and not 1 apex reward. I did however earn over 400 crown Jems so I could buy one if I want.

JimT722

lordrichter wrote: »

HeroOfNone wrote: »

The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

My feeling going into this that the Apex mounts would be in the pricey neighborhood of 8000 Crowns. That, if they did not have Crown Crates, they would be asking that much, or more, as a weekend limited time offer. Ultimately, Crown Crates are a way to raise prices and get more Crowns for the mounts. This is why I offered ZOS the option to just take 8000 Crowns from me and give me the Senche. All they have to do is send me a PM and the Crowns are all theirs. (Edit: this is a limited time offer)

I feel that the Apex drop rates are currently right on, or slightly too high, and that the Gem conversion may also be a little too high, or the Gem price too low. It is too soon to know if they went too far with post-PTS tweaks and the addition of the consumable exchange.

It will be interesting to see if drop rates, exchange rates, or Gem costs change next season.

They can change it at any time and they refuse to tell us what the drop rates are.

Prof_Bawbag

BomblePants wrote: »

Has anyone got the leopard sench mount? I've not heard anyone saying they've got it from the crates.... it's all I wanted, sad it's locked behind crates.....

@BomblePants I've had it twice.

HeroOfNone

lordrichter wrote: »

HeroOfNone wrote: »

The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

My feeling going into this that the Apex mounts would be in the pricey neighborhood of 8000 Crowns. That, if they did not have Crown Crates, they would be asking that much, or more, as a weekend limited time offer. Ultimately, Crown Crates are a way to raise prices and get more Crowns for the mounts. This is why I offered ZOS the option to just take 8000 Crowns from me and give me the Senche. All they have to do is send me a PM and the Crowns are all theirs. (Edit: this is a limited time offer)

I feel that the Apex drop rates are currently right on, or slightly too high, and that the Gem conversion may also be a little too high, or the Gem price too low. It is too soon to know if they went too far with post-PTS tweaks and the addition of the consumable exchange.

It will be interesting to see if drop rates, exchange rates, or Gem costs change next season.

I feel they are swinging for the fences way too early though. On your first time implimenting a new system with wide spread criticism you don't up the average price as well.

I'm not a marketing expert, far from it, but the obvious marketing ploys here would have been:
- Offer crates at a special early bird special, especially with cyber Monday deals, of 25% to 50% off X number
- Set high RNG or better conversion rates the first crate to average the mount cost to around 6k to 7.5k

I could go on with the number of marketing opportunities they overlooked, but this seems the most basic to make sure you get early acceptance.

BomblePants

@Prof_Bawbag ..... nnnnggghhaaaggghh.... damn! Good for you though Sir!

Prof_Bawbag

BomblePants wrote: »

@Prof_Bawbag ..... nnnnggghhaaaggghh.... damn! Good for you though Sir!

BomblePants wrote: »

@Prof_Bawbag ..... nnnnggghhaaaggghh.... damn! Good for you though Sir!

@BomblePants

This is why there should be an option to either cash dupes in for gems to be able to gift them to others. Even swap the card with others, so no chance gold exchanging is involved and doesn't mess with the entire in-game economy. I got the pit wolf too and won't ever use it. I bought the standard wolf ages ago and never liked it.

covenant_merchant

Had 800 crowns left from ESO +, opened 2 crates.
Crate #1 - a stupid Peter Pan hat and poisons
Crate #2 - Storm Atronach Bear (which is kind of the only thing I might've been interested in, so jackpot I guess) ?

I have ran the arena 223 times to this day, and no sharpened destruction staff in sight, but when it comes to lottery, guess I lucked out.

I'm still not entirely sure how I feel about these. I'm glad they've decided to make consumables exchangeable for crown gems, but the exchange rate is a sham. If the Apex mounts cost 100 gems, I'd understand. But as it is, the only reasonable way to get the mount is to luck the * out.

Verdict : Wouldn't deliberately spend crowns on it, but if you have eso + and crowns with nothing to spend them on, why not. To each their own. If you're easily swayed by the promise of a possible fancy electric mount in an mmo and willing to waste real life money on it, then either you're rich and have skewed priorities, or you have an issue and might want to seek help.

Callous2208

Wonder if there is a hidden luck factored in per account. Seems like you're either extremely lucky or extremely unlucky no matter how many you buy. Yes yes I know, that's just RNG. Would be funny though if they had set the chance lower for people they knew would *** away more cash, based on their purchase history. Or vice versa.

JKorr

Callous2208 wrote: »

Wonder if there is a hidden luck factored in per account. Seems like you're either extremely lucky or extremely unlucky no matter how many you buy. Yes yes I know, that's just RNG. Would be funny though if they had set the chance lower for people they knew would *** away more cash, based on their purchase history. Or vice versa.

Could be possible. :shrug: They did send out special email invitations to some players that admitted they collected a lot of things from the store to gift crown store items to friends. They have tracking ability, it seems.

rotaugen454

JKorr wrote: »

Callous2208 wrote: »

Wonder if there is a hidden luck factored in per account. Seems like you're either extremely lucky or extremely unlucky no matter how many you buy. Yes yes I know, that's just RNG. Would be funny though if they had set the chance lower for people they knew would *** away more cash, based on their purchase history. Or vice versa.

Could be possible. :shrug: They did send out special email invitations to some players that admitted they collected a lot of things from the store to gift crown store items to friends. They have tracking ability, it seems.

I hope they get the gifting going soon. I wanted to buy the elk for my wife, as she loves them. She drug me outside early morning during our visit to Colorado to see some she found in a walk. It would be nice to gift Crown Crate items too.

Personofsecrets

@ZOS_GinaBruno , @ZOS_RichLambert ,

Does the drop rate of items, specifically the storm atronarch mounts, change depending on how many crowns a player has or depending on how many crates are purchase? Does the drop rate change based on pity?

rotaugen454

Personofsecrets wrote: »

@ZOS_GinaBruno , @ZOS_RichLambert ,

Does the drop rate of items, specifically the storm atronarch mounts, change depending on how many crowns a player has or depending on how many crates are purchase? Does the drop rate change based on pity?

I seriously doubt they do that. Way too much coding compared to a flat drop rate. I may be a bit of a whale, but with my wife going to spend thousands on a CAT tomorrow and flying across the country to pick it up, I don't need to feel guilty about whatever I buy.

Personofsecrets

rotaugen454 wrote: »

Personofsecrets wrote: »

@ZOS_GinaBruno , @ZOS_RichLambert ,

Does the drop rate of items, specifically the storm atronarch mounts, change depending on how many crowns a player has or depending on how many crates are purchase? Does the drop rate change based on pity?

I seriously doubt they do that. Way too much coding compared to a flat drop rate. I may be a bit of a whale, but with my wife going to spend thousands on a CAT tomorrow and flying across the country to pick it up, I don't need to feel guilty about whatever I buy.

I ask my question as it looks like people who only bought a few have higher incidence of receiving the apex reward.

Enodoc

HeroOfNone wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

OK guys, here's a Google Sheet to fill in. Please fill in ALL DROPS in each crate, as partial data is useless. If you get 5 cards, there's a separate box to add that info to so that the totals remain correct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing

@Enodoc you might want to give a look at the average gem per crate conversion.

Based at the numbers @ 10 am

Tier - items found x gem conversion
Apex - 17 x 80 = 1360
Legendary - 52 x 25 = 1300
Epic - 82 x 13 = 1066
Superior - 369 x 5 = 1845
Fine - 427 x 1 (2?) = 427(854?)
Common - 659

6657(7084) gems total
385 crates opened
17.291 (18.4) gems per crate.

That means if you want to buy your mount (400) it will be on average 24 to 22 crates, 9600 to 8800 crowns.

This shows us that either the RNG is too low or the conversion rate is too low. Assume ZOS uped the conversion rates (using conservative numbers and on top of the sum)

With a 1.25x boost:
8321.25 gems
21.61 gems per crate
19 crates
7600 crowns

With a 1.5x boost
9985.5 gems
25.94 gems per crate
16 crates
6400 crowns

With a 2x boost
13314
34.58
12 crates
4800 crowns.


The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

I don't think we've been recording duplicate items and gems well enough to get a good result for that, but I can try to give it a go later. It may need a bit of fudging though.

Martan

Memorable drops

Crate 1
Black Mane Lion mount

Crate 4
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Crate 35
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Purchased 45 crates total. Got lots of pets, costumes and some other mounts too.

driosketch

Martan wrote: »

Memorable drops

Crate 1
Black Mane Lion mount

Crate 4
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Crate 35
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Purchased 45 crates total. Got lots of pets, costumes and some other mounts too.

What was the gem return on the duplicate wolf?

Arundo

Not sure if this is already mentioned but if you get a second apex mount from a card you get 132 gems awarded.

jkolb2030

I just spent ~$90 on crown crates.. My RNG was not amazing, but also not as terrible as Deltia or Fengrush when they did their openings.

Out of that $90 I received the following items (excluding scrolls and such; sorry its not in format)

- Storm Atro Bear
- Storm Atro Guar
- Storm Atro Aura
- Storm Atro Transformation

The rest I got were the battlemage costumes and soul shriven costumes that no one really cares about.. I would have stopped sooner as I got both mounts within the first 15 crates, but I wanted the Mind Shriven skin and the Snow Leopard Senche - so bought more crates to at least get to 200 gems to trade in for them.

$90 later I walked away with the mentioned above and 220 gems to cash in for the Mind Shriven Skin and Senche, and now I feel content with my winnings, but still have a bad taste in my mouth..I think it's because of how easy it was to buy more crowns and more crates , even though I had a cutoff set for myself at 200 crown gems..It was just too encouraging .

I think the crates will be okay overall with some tweaks to conversion or initial price, but I don't think I will partake in them again anytime soon.

Martan

driosketch wrote: »

Martan wrote: »

Memorable drops

Crate 1
Black Mane Lion mount

Crate 4
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Crate 35
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Purchased 45 crates total. Got lots of pets, costumes and some other mounts too.

What was the gem return on the duplicate wolf?

It was 133 or 132 gems

driosketch

Arundo wrote: »

Not sure if this is already mentioned but if you get a second apex mount from a card you get 132 gems awarded.

Martan wrote: »

driosketch wrote: »

Martan wrote: »

Memorable drops

Crate 1
Black Mane Lion mount

Crate 4
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Crate 35
Strom Astonach Wolf mount

Purchased 45 crates total. Got lots of pets, costumes and some other mounts too.

What was the gem return on the duplicate wolf?

It was 133 or 132 gems

Looks like it's 132. They're taking a bit more liberty with rounding down from 1/3.

Enodoc

Enodoc wrote: »

HeroOfNone wrote: »

Enodoc wrote: »

OK guys, here's a Google Sheet to fill in. Please fill in ALL DROPS in each crate, as partial data is useless. If you get 5 cards, there's a separate box to add that info to so that the totals remain correct.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zt5oj7PWNFFaTykgXhWQOOkVl1ekHAJgcJpueRN3C40/edit?usp=sharing

@Enodoc you might want to give a look at the average gem per crate conversion.

Based at the numbers @ 10 am

Tier - items found x gem conversion
Apex - 17 x 80 = 1360
Legendary - 52 x 25 = 1300
Epic - 82 x 13 = 1066
Superior - 369 x 5 = 1845
Fine - 427 x 1 (2?) = 427(854?)
Common - 659

6657(7084) gems total
385 crates opened
17.291 (18.4) gems per crate.

That means if you want to buy your mount (400) it will be on average 24 to 22 crates, 9600 to 8800 crowns.

This shows us that either the RNG is too low or the conversion rate is too low. Assume ZOS uped the conversion rates (using conservative numbers and on top of the sum)

With a 1.25x boost:
8321.25 gems
21.61 gems per crate
19 crates
7600 crowns

With a 1.5x boost
9985.5 gems
25.94 gems per crate
16 crates
6400 crowns

With a 2x boost
13314
34.58
12 crates
4800 crowns.


The message I'd give is ZOS needs to give better RNG, lower crate cost, or up the conversion rate. On the average you can see these mounts are way too high for most to get into.

I don't think we've been recording duplicate items and gems well enough to get a good result for that, but I can try to give it a go later. It may need a bit of fudging though.

Ok, so Gems are now calculated from duplicates rather than directly input. Since people were not always adding duplicates, that may be a bit skewed, as will the "gems per crate" calculation, since I only counted against duplicates rather than all cards. If anyone's got any ideas for how to correct for the missing duplicates, please let me know!

KcjAries78

Okay so I fell into the trap... But not really as I used my Sony Rewards to buy some crowns, so I really only spent $10 on a 15 Pack. I got a few things that were cool. Not as many gems in the end because I did not get as many duplicates in 15 crates. Cashed in all of my consumables so I got up to 71 gems. I got three legendary items including the Soul-Shriven Horse, Orchid Nixad, and Tangerine frog (I skipped out on when it was for sale because I had bought the regular one when it came out, But I like him.)

One thing I did not realize until now was that the Style Parlor items like the Wrestler's Buz cut could be used without having to use an appearance change token. This adds value to these items for me now, so I got rid of my mow-hawk on my Templar just to switch it up.

I was against the crates at first mostly due to the amount of money one actually has to spend in the end to get everything one wants. Will I buy more at some point, probably...

Kildayen

I have money to waste, so I went to town. I purchased 120 crown crates with 40,000 crowns. Got the crowns when they were on sale, so I spent about $190. Video is a bit long because I didn't edit it. You can watch it in its entirety to see my drop rate or you can skip to the end to see what I got.

https://youtu.be/Ts1mOJDfCzk