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PureeEvil · August 18

I've been trying to get Belharza's lead from the chests in the folkrift for a couple of weeks now. The same goes for the sea serpent lead from mage guild. All this is taking into account the fact that I have an empty tray of gold leads. And I'm playing Folkrit in veteran mode, where the chance of getting a lead is higher.
I don't get any leads from myths at all last week. I think it's because I canceled my subscription.

@ZOS_Icy, @ZOS_Kevin Can you publicly confirm or deny that you're lowering the chance of getting a lead for players with a valid but canceled subscription?

ZOS_Kevin · August 18

PureeEvil wrote: »

Can you publicly confirm or deny that you're lowering the chance of getting a lead for players with a valid but canceled subscription?

Drop rates are not impacted regardless if someone is subscribed or not. So no, this is not happening.

method__01 · August 18

folkrift= Falkreath ? ok lots of ppl had same probs with drop
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/594971/belharzas-band-crimson-diamond-lead-does-this-thing-exist

eso plus isn't related with drops of any kind in game,just do some runs and eventually you will get it .good luck

scrappy1342 · August 18

subscription sure doesn't affect it. i get tons of leads on my account that doesn't have a sub. but it sure does seem like not having access to antiquities ups the drop rate on leads. alt account gets leads for everything without trying. same thing happened with my main account until i got greymoor and unlocked it on that one. not sure if that is what is going on or not, but it certainly seems that way and have joked about it with friends for years

Mai_Selph · August 18

For me, it seems that I get leads more often if I don't play the game for a little while.

But I also think that leads from later expansions have a higher drop chance. West Weald and Sostice ones were really easy to get, while the ones from Greymoor and Blackwood take forever to drop.

Renato90085 · August 18

i remember i run 5 time Scriviner's Hall for mythic lead ,and my friend farm 77 time
total 154 key open chest for mythic lead
sometime you just bad lucky or drop maybe have bug

PureeEvil · August 18

ZOS_Kevin wrote: »

PureeEvil wrote: »

Can you publicly confirm or deny that you're lowering the chance of getting a lead for players with a valid but canceled subscription?

Drop rates are not impacted regardless if someone is subscribed or not. So no, this is not happening.

why then with an empty tray of leads I don't get anything. My chance should be increased on the contrary and I just waste time on the same actions. as for the sea snake of the mage guild, only after clearing the tray I opened 10 chests. I can't count how many were opened on this account since the beginning of pumping, but there were a lot of them because I expd the mage guild to balance.

We are returning to the fact that we pay both for the game and for the subscription for the sake of grinding. I'm already bored with my old builds, and I want something new and unusual. I've been farm a build through light attacks Caluurion's + Belkharz for over three weeks. In my opinion, this is already beyond reasonable and acceptable. we're not in a free Chinese mobile MMO, what's going on? Look for other ways to encourage people to buy eso+. These are not adequate drop chances.

katanagirl1 · August 18

I don’t think I have heard anywhere that running any dungeon on vet gives a better chance at a lead. I just run them on normal.

PureeEvil · August 18

katanagirl1 wrote: »

I don’t think I have heard anywhere that running any dungeon on vet gives a better chance at a lead. I just run them on normal.

Torc of Tonal Constancy - Torc Strand of Song

10 run on normal and no any lead. on vet in drop from first run.

redlink1979 · August 18

Rng will always be the worse enemy

allochthons · August 18

I still can't stomach going into Falkreath after farming that lead. It took me most of my stickerbook for it to drop. Unfortunate, I used to really like that dungeon.

The add-on that shows chest spawn locations should help.

Another plea for weighted RNG, @ZOS_Kevin!

GeneralGrundmann · August 18

Two days ago, I completed my antiquities stickerbook (except Solstice), every lead at least once.

Shout-out to all the crazy, ähm... "dedicated" people that got all the antiquities lore texts three times each.

I remember falkreath hold, that's a tough lead. The difficulty level of the dungeon doesn't matter. Only the difficulty level of the treasure chests matters. And as far as my experience with this dungeon showed me, dungeon difficulty does not has any influence towards chest difficulty.

At that time I created a werewolf-sorc with Belharza's band, Molag Kena and Blood Moon from March of Sacrifices. Was fun, 70K DPS with only the light attack button.

Good luck!

The lead will drop.

sarahthes · August 18

It took me 42 mages guild coffers to get the lead and I had ESO+. It's just a really bad one to get.

Morgaledh · August 18

Slayer was originally going to title their ninth album "RNG Hates Us All" - true story.

katanagirl1 · August 19

PureeEvil wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

I don’t think I have heard anywhere that running any dungeon on vet gives a better chance at a lead. I just run them on normal.

Torc of Tonal Constancy - Torc Strand of Song

10 run on normal and no any lead. on vet in drop from first run.

Well, I have never run any of them on vet and gotten leads. So it’s just coincidence on your part.

PureeEvil · August 19

katanagirl1 wrote: »

PureeEvil wrote: »

katanagirl1 wrote: »

I don’t think I have heard anywhere that running any dungeon on vet gives a better chance at a lead. I just run them on normal.

Torc of Tonal Constancy - Torc Strand of Song

10 run on normal and no any lead. on vet in drop from first run.

Well, I have never run any of them on vet and gotten leads. So it’s just coincidence on your part.

well we can know it if zos will descend from his blissful heaven and reveal this information. i see it not on only that lead.

PureeEvil · August 19

@ZOS_Kevin It would be nice to know at least some parameters for increasing and decreasing the chances of getting a lead. The last time I started discussing these chances publicly, you changed the formula after a while. However, with the old formula, almost any mythic could be obtained in a single day. The only exceptions are the sea serpent and the same belharza.
I don't understand the main question: does cleaning the tray increase the chances or not? In the past, it actually worked. The same goes for veteran characters.
Is there a reduced coefficient for the last part of the mythic? I think there is.
The new formula is too chaotic to solve for sure.

Blood_again · August 19

Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists.

The Monte Carlo fallacy is the belief that, if a random event has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future.

SolarRune · August 19

I don't see how or why that would increase your chance. I thought it was just RNG, if you already have the lead then the rng is wasted. It could also mean where multiple things are available from the same action you may be lowering your chance to get a specific drop but never got the maps together in enough numbers to be able to investigate.

SolarRune · August 19

It has been talked about before, but at a 1% chance by RNG, with100 attempts at that more than a third of people would still get nothing (36.6%).

Not saying I agree with some of the drop rates in the game, just pointing out purely RNG and chance can mean you end up doing alot of runs for a drop without any other shenanigans going on.

kotisovich · August 19

I dont think veteran mode has increased rate. I get leads with same frequency both normal and vet

PureeEvil · August 19

SolarRune wrote: »

I don't see how or why that would increase your chance. I thought it was just RNG, if you already have the lead then the rng is wasted. It could also mean where multiple things are available from the same action you may be lowering your chance to get a specific drop but never got the maps together in enough numbers to be able to investigate.

if they have a simple random number generator, then you can give up on this company xD
how is it that there are no clear formulas in TES?

LootAllTheStuff · August 20

PureeEvil wrote: »

SolarRune wrote: »

I don't see how or why that would increase your chance. I thought it was just RNG, if you already have the lead then the rng is wasted. It could also mean where multiple things are available from the same action you may be lowering your chance to get a specific drop but never got the maps together in enough numbers to be able to investigate.

if they have a simple random number generator, then you can give up on this company xD
how is it that there are no clear formulas in TES?

Most (likely all?) games that have loot sources use RNG to determine whether the player gets something and, if so, what it might be. There are formulas that go along with that to implement and modify the drop chances based on in-game factors, but at the end of the day unless the loot is 100% curated and guaranteed, RNG is involved.

tmacedo · August 20

GeneralGrundmann wrote: »

Shout-out to all the crazy, ähm... "dedicated" people that got all the antiquities lore texts three times each.

Im one of those. Just imagine my happiness when Southern Elsweyr psijic portals dovrha one dropped in IA; or CA last secret boss weeks ago, during mayhem, in Tel Var Merchant...

sarahthes wrote: »

It took me 42 mages guild coffers to get the lead and I had ESO+. It's just a really bad one to get.

I think I did enough of that to level all the companions Mages Guild to 10 two times; for the three codex entries.

Thats why I suggest increasing the number of leads available in those vendors. Make it two for Mythics and two for collectible/furniture

PureeEvil · August 20

LootAllTheStuff wrote: »

PureeEvil wrote: »

SolarRune wrote: »

I don't see how or why that would increase your chance. I thought it was just RNG, if you already have the lead then the rng is wasted. It could also mean where multiple things are available from the same action you may be lowering your chance to get a specific drop but never got the maps together in enough numbers to be able to investigate.

if they have a simple random number generator, then you can give up on this company xD
how is it that there are no clear formulas in TES?

Most (likely all?) games that have loot sources use RNG to determine whether the player gets something and, if so, what it might be. There are formulas that go along with that to implement and modify the drop chances based on in-game factors, but at the end of the day unless the loot is 100% curated and guaranteed, RNG is involved.

A number generator and a number generator embedded in a formula are two different things. A number generator embedded in a formula produces and changes one value from the formula, but it remains within its boundaries.
I am asking about the remaining variables.

PureeEvil · August 27

So that's how my Jeweler's Research Report ended up without sea serpent lead. It's not very clear why there's not a 100% chance of dropping it. I've only had one of these reports drop on my new account. I don't use alt and I hate crafting. I kept this damn report until I had a better chanse on lead.

Even if I have to play without a sea serpent with just one markin, I won't pay you any dollar ZOS. [Snip]. NO ONE DOLLAR MORE

[Edited for demands/threats]