I think it is about time ZOS took a serious look at their RNG code.

Casdha · March 2019

Looking at some of the messages here, I see that others seem to have the same problem I have. You keep getting the same drops over and over again.

Like Cadwell's pages. Folks who are getting them are getting them pretty often and some of them keep getting duplicates. Other haven't received any or very few.

This isn't the only clue this needs looked into. Just some examples: Farming Nirncrux I've went over an hour and not seen a single one, other days I've gotten 5 or 6 in a row.
Refining mats, sometimes I can go through 2 or 3 hundred and get no gold mats but there are times I will get 3 or 4 in a row.

If you are using some kind of counter in your RNG then it must be moving at a snail's pace because if you get it right you can get several good things in a row if you do it quick enough while you are on what I imagine as the sweet spot. This also works on motifs. If I've gotten several daily boxes to open and I get a motif page it seems if I open the rest really fast I always get two or three more pages. What ever it is doing it seems to be in sync with the speed at which you can perform these actions like refining speed.

What ever it is I'm sure ZOS noticed it because I use to do the same thing with Perfect Roe until they slowed down the rate at which you could filet your fish, if I caught the sweet spot I could get 3 or 4 in a row. I'm also sure its been that way for a long time because I'm pretty sure the fish filet speed was slowed down several years ago.

I'm just curious if anyone else has experienced anything like this.

idk · March 2019

Like many of the threads you refer to the sample size is pretty small to gleam any real information from them

Take into consideration the comment about refining matts 200-300 mats is a pretty small sample size for a drop that has a 5% chance which is the drop rate for gold matts.

You are only talking about a sample of 20-30 attempts. That will give you no worthy information. Whereas I have deconed 20k matts and noted how much I gained and it was pretty close to 5% each time I have done that.

So small sample sizes provide worthless information.

Casdha · March 2019

idk wrote: »

Like many of the threads you refer to the sample size is pretty small to gleam any real information from them

Take into consideration the comment about refining matts 200-300 mats is a pretty small sample size for a drop that has a 5% chance which is the drop rate for gold matts.

You are only talking about a sample of 20-30 attempts. That will give you no worthy information. Whereas I have deconed 20k matts and noted how much I gained and it was pretty close to 5% each time I have done that.

So small sample sizes provide worthless information.

Maybe I should have said several hundred in a row. I refined about 20k matts this morning between cloth, wood, and ore.

Edit: more like 30k I guess. I had almost 10k in Metal alone 6k wood, 8k silk, and 6k leather.

Edit 2: it also depends on where you hit it I had 1k dust and got 3 gold grains back to back.

idk · March 2019

When I refine it is often a large amount of matts and I always take not of how many gold matts I have of that type and it is always pretty close to 5%.

Regardless, you comment on 200-300 and then come back with 20k. No offense but that does seem a little suspicions.

desndb · March 2019

Let me start by saying: I love this game and enjoy it even when I feel bored, because there is always something to do or others to talk to. That said...

RNG is a blight that drives me insane.
I've played for nearly 3 years now and my own personal RNG hell is no laughing matter. In order to test my theory (that my account is cursed) I made another one...and after one run of the Jester dailies it was more than confirmed:

6 days worth of stupendous boxes on main account = 0 style pages.
2 days on new account = 5 style pages

This RNG madness extends to every facet of my main account though: furniture recipes, provisioning recipes, all the dailies I do, fishing, gold drops, roe, etc...

It's very frustrating, to say the least. I just hope that ZOS can help some of us out by adjusting the RNG to be a bit fairer across the board (and also, don't nerf a whole account, that is supremely unfair to those of is affected by it).

Casdha · March 2019

idk wrote: »

When I refine it is often a large amount of matts and I always take not of how many gold matts I have of that type and it is always pretty close to 5%.

Regardless, you comment on 200-300 and then come back with 20k. No offense but that does seem a little suspicions.

I cleared out my bank of surveys this week taking an alliance a day the last 3 days. It took over an hour a day to clear out each alliance. I edited my second post to say several hundred in a row to be more accurate.

Regardless, when I get gold mats they always seem to come 2 or 3 back to back. I always try to refine as fast as it will let me. Its almost like its own game, to see if I can avoid the thud sound you get when trying to refine to fast. You use to could filet fish the same speed that you could refine mats but they changed it a good while back.

FleetwoodSmack · March 2019

Honestly I haven't had too much of an issue with the drop rates in terms of refinement.

DUNGEONS ON THE OTHER HAND... I know several people who're looking for that Burning Spellweave inferno.

Casdha · March 2019

FleetwoodSmack wrote: »

Honestly I haven't had too much of an issue with the drop rates in terms of refinement.

DUNGEONS ON THE OTHER HAND... I know several people who're looking for that Burning Spellweave inferno.

I think what I see affects the whole game.

As for luck, the worst I did was on wood. 6k netted me 20 gold mats. If my math is right that is 0.3% or 3% if you count tries instead of individual mats.

idk · March 2019

FleetwoodSmack wrote: »

Honestly I haven't had too much of an issue with the drop rates in terms of refinement.

DUNGEONS ON THE OTHER HAND... I know several people who're looking for that Burning Spellweave inferno.

And this is what I find. But it has to do with the limited chances for the staff to drop for starters. Matts has been well documented and consistently been 5% for gold matts when refining.

FleetwoodSmack · March 2019

idk wrote: »

FleetwoodSmack wrote: »

Honestly I haven't had too much of an issue with the drop rates in terms of refinement.

DUNGEONS ON THE OTHER HAND... I know several people who're looking for that Burning Spellweave inferno.

And this is what I find. But it has to do with the limited chances for the staff to drop for starters. Matts has been well documented and consistently been 5% for gold matts when refining.

Yeah. Honestly I haven't felt much of a difference from back in TU, but I also didn't refine all that much back then. I just sat and hoarded because I'm a hoarder (not even kidding, I have almost 20 Restoration Staves of the Lich and I know I'm not going to use half of them, but I still WANT them).

As for dungeons, yeah. I sometimes think it has to do with how efficiently one can grind those dungeons as well because I know some of those friends of mine skip the chests when I keep telling them that hitting them's still a good idea. Other times, when I'm being spiteful I sometimes think that I just get RNG-nerfed because I had good luck finding what I needed, but I know that's just me being salty.

Casdha · March 2019

I'm not sure how it works but I could picture how it could possibly work (numbers and times are example only).

Think of it like special D&D dice. The first one you roll is a 20 sided and you have to roll a 5 or less to have a chance to roll the Prize dice. The Prize dice is normally a 100 sided dice and a prize list with 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 having a prize associated with them. You also keep tally of how many prizes you give out. If you give out too many prizes within a certain time frame the hundred sided dice gets replaced with a 250 sided dice to decrease the chances. If you don't give out enough prizes within a certain time frame the 100 sided gets replaced with a 50 sided to increase the chances.

Now what would happen if you were allowed to roll the 20 sided dice as fast as you wanted but the prize dice only gets rolled every 5 seconds? (maybe from bogging the servers down)
(edit: or in some cases the prize dice fails to roll at all and you get what you got last time it was rolled)

This would also seem to support why the best time for me to refine mats and or farm Nirn is right after the servers are restarted after a patch. I always have better luck right after a patch (no prizes have been given out yet).

Of course this is all just theory and as I said Numbers are for example only to illustrate the idea.

edit to add: when you are talking about things like motif pages when the prize dice hits you then roll a 10 sided dice to see which motif you get